2024 US Presidential Election Speculation

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Humble Novice
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread post by Humble Novice »

My only hope in the upcoming elections is that people do their part and vote no matter what the polls have to say. Voting is very important as even one ballot can make a huge difference for certain races. Of course, it helps if more folks take advantage of early voting if their state allows it.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread post by garywayne49 »

s speculation swirls around the 2024 US Presidential Election, it's a pivotal moment to reflect on democratic values. Engaging in informed discussions, considering diverse perspectives, and prioritizing unity will be crucial for a robust electoral process. Let's champion civic participation and ensure a democratic foundation that reflects the nation's diverse aspirations. top follow
Last edited by garywayne49 on Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread post by Jordan »

I think if it's between Joe Biden and Donald Trump again, it's a true 50/50, with an edge to Trump if anything. Might even be more like a 55/45 in Trump's favor. It's hard to predict because polling has not been very reliable for quite some time in this country. What tends to happen is that polling doesn't account very well for unlikely voters, and more of those have been turning up in elections with hyperpartisan choices. This has seemingly affected both political parties. In 2016 the unlikely voters turned out big for Trump, but in recent elections since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, unlikely voters have swung more in the opposite direction and have given Democrats surprise victories in special elections around the country, as well as a better than expected midterm showing. Because of this element, I am slightly skeptical of recent polling showing Trump having a large advantage. While I think he may have an advantage, I think that the issue of abortion is still weighing heavy on people's minds right now, and is the one saving grace for Democrats electorally.

The problem for the Democratic party is that their better than expected showing in recent elections has not translated into support for Joe Biden himself. For months now Joe Biden's popularity rating has been absolutely miserable, like literally among the worst for any American president, and at least on par with Trump's horrible approval ratings while he was President if not worse than that. Joe Biden is widely and correctly seen by the majority of Americans as too senile to perform his job as President. He has not delivered on many of his key promises including expanding voting rights, raising the minimum wage, providing student loan debt relief, and Build Back Better (watered down into a different bill with minimal upsides). His presidency will be remembered primarily in my opinion for its foreign policy decisions, including withdrawal from Afghanistan (imo good), aid to Ukraine (imo bad, but understandable), and full-throated support for Israel's genocidal regime. In recent weeks, protestors have started calling Joe Biden "Genocide Joe."

The latter decision to fully support Israel is particularly precarious for Joe Biden. Here's the thing: the majority of Americans DO support Israel. That is borne out by polling. It isn't my opinion. BUT, and this is a big caveat, among Democrats and younger voters, support for Israel is less than among other voting blocs. And crucially, Joe Biden's stance on Israel has alienated Arab voters completely, in what has been described as one of the largest demographic voting preference shifts in the history of modern polling. What many people don't understand about this is that this doesn't mean Arabs are suddenly going to vote Republican. But it does mean many may be less inclined to support Joe Biden. Many will just stay home, not vote, or even vote third party if Joe Biden or somebody with a comparable position is the nominee. Arab voters are a small, but not unimportant, demographic. They have a big influence in particular in Michigan. It has been noted by some pundits that the number of Arab voters in several swing states is larger than Biden's margin of victory in those states in 2020.

In my opinion, Joe Biden should retire and allow for a competitive Democratic primary. He is the wrong person to lead the Democratic party and the country right now. And I believe that with a competitive primary, a better candidate will emerge to challenge Donald Trump. I believe that the majority of Americans are not really happy with a rematch of Biden versus Trump and with pre-ordained options along these lines. I think both as a messenger and on policy, Joe Biden has failed and should step aside for somebody else to lead the left against Trump. I believe that Trump is also unsuitable and undeserving of another term in office, probably somewhat senile in his own right, and is deeply problematic in terms of the policies he and his party supports. On the Republican side, I believe the primary however is basically already over. The challengers to Trump have not accrued anywhere near Trump's support, and it seems implausible that anything will change this. I definitely do not believe Nikki Haley is the right person to lead the Republican party right now. She is a neocon with horrible policy ideas on basically everything. Picking Nikki Haley right now would be like returning to George W. Bush, who imo was the worst President in American history. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy were interesting and their ideas seem more aligned with what the future of the Republican party will be, but they both are far from catching Trump and it doesn't seem likely that they will catch up. Everybody else in the Republican primary contest is irrelevant.

Edit-people concerned about the death of democracy in this country should look at florida's decision to cancel primaries for the democratic party as a pivotal moment of the collapse.
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