UK Politics 2023-Corbyn out, Sturgeon resigns

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Re: UK Politics 2020-Cummings lockdown scandal

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Dong Zhou wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:15 pm Feels so long ago since Dominic Cummings was on our news day in and day out. Been through a few PMs since then
I was talking to someone last night who was lamenting the current state of British politics, and while I'm not thrilled, at least Johnson and Cummings are gone.

Dong Zhou wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:15 pm-Feel the government is playing the last war in battle with unions. Sure some strikes won't be popular (I think post office staff may be thinking people are more nostalgic about them than they are) but post-pandemic and with the cost of living crises, people's attitudes about other people's pay and lives seem to have changed. They also don't things are working and, though Labour has problems in strikes in Wales, have gained some effective attack lines. It looks like a government picking wrong fights against the poor rather than getting things done and fixing things after over a decade
I've been saying for a while that the NHS strikes seem to have widespread sympathy. I think if they'd compromised there, showing themselves to be "reasonable" they'd have had more of a mandate to be hardball with everyone else. I just think the idea of being encouraged by the government to clap nurses but for that government not being willing to give them a payrise is sticking in a lot of peoples throats.

Dong Zhou wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:15 pm-Not a politics thing but has anyone else noticed a lot of articles about people curbing (or completely ending) their drinking recently?
Not noticed articles on it, but have definitely seen it cropping up in my social circle over the last month or two.
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Re: UK Politics 2020-Cummings lockdown scandal

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Sun Fin wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:17 am

I've been saying for a while that the NHS strikes seem to have widespread sympathy. I think if they'd compromised there, showing themselves to be "reasonable" they'd have had more of a mandate to be hardball with everyone else. I just think the idea of being encouraged by the government to clap nurses but for that government not being willing to give them a payrise is sticking in a lot of peoples throats.

Agree about compromise and the clap for nurses has certainly been raised a few times. I think people see the NHS is hurting and cost of living themselves is combining here to not backing government after 13 years


-PMQ's: Starmer was clever with choice of questions, going NHS again risked coming up against well prepared answers but using PMQ's to make point about ambulance timing was a master stroke. Sunak is a decent performer but talking about Wales and accusing Starmer of game-playing in response to a question about a lady who died is a really bad look

-I like the Nandy line "Forget ‘stepping up’ or ‘gauging up’ — ‘screwing up’ would be more accurate. Since the last election regional inequality has got worse and nearly every leveling-up promise has been broken"

-The Truss ites, while denying they ever knew or supported Truss, have formed a Conservative Growth Group. Might work better if they started with "sorry we got it so so wrong, please teach us oh Sunak"

-Boris to speak to Conservative Democratic Organization conference (ie the one led by Peter Cruddas ie the bring back Boris for we have no morals/Labour spies :wink: ) after local elections. That will stir up trouble and he knows it

-Groan on Shapps hair-bushing not airbrushing joke about Boris vanishing from photo

-Rail Minister Huw Merriman has admitted it would have cost less to agree pay deal with rail unions then the strikes are costing. If I was a union (or Labour), I would be seizing on this as much as possible

-Government not sure how many EU laws it has to go through, not reassuring given they are meant to be revoked or retained by end of year

-I know it was expensive but I actually quite like Truzz jenga podium

-Sorry to hear George Eustice is retiring

-Ipsos Mori polling on Sunak's pledges, not great for Sunak
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Re: UK Politics 2020-Cummings lockdown scandal

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-Bad time for Sunak. Under investigation after he shows video that he didn't wear seatbelt on (I hope police make a point here), I suspect a second fine would be damaging more then incident itself. Levelling up funds have angered MP's who didn't get it (accusations Sunak benefiting his own side probably not going to be as harmful as Westminster would like) and some areas feeling very betrayed, several MP's clearly offended at idea he has called pro-tax cutters idiots (he didn't but was always going to be twisted) so a lot of unhappy MP's

-Starmer proposes a OPEC but based around leading clean energy countries

-Andrew Street really lashing out at levelling up funding

-Rosie Duffield comparing Labour to an abusive relationship will sting

-Steve Baker learning Irish tongue paying off

-Lee Anderson remains an idiot

-Keeping Zahawi on feels a worse decision each and every day with the tax allegations and government failure to front up just makes it look very bad

-Polling from London Playbook that covers policy, Scotland row, leaders
That elusive cut-through: Labour will hope the fuel announcement and global elite schmoozing will help the public get to know Starmer better, after a Redfield and Wilton poll for POLITICO found just 40 percent of voters are familiar with the opposition leader and what he stands for, compared with almost 60 percent for Rishi Sunak. Starmer did however pip Sunak to the post in the beer contest, with 53 percent preferring to have a pint with him versus 47 percent for the PM. Good job Sunak is a teetotaller.

In less good news for Labour: More people (42 percent) believe the public should not be able to refer themselves to specialist NHS services without going through a GP than believe they should (39 percent.) Health spokesman Wes Streeting announced the plan earlier this month.

Speaking of health: Amid the ongoing NHS woes, 42 percent of respondents to the poll said health funding should be reformed so people who can afford it stump up a bit extra for some services, compared to 41 percent who thought otherwise. But when asked what the income threshold should be for contributing more for services, the largest share of people (28 percent) said no one should have to.

And one for the government: More Brits oppose people continuing to get sickness benefits while returning to work — a move the government is considering — than support the idea. Some 26 percent thought it was a good proposal, compared to 40 percent who didn’t like the sound of it.

GENDER NUMBERS: Nearly half of Brits back the government’s decision to block Scotland’s gender reforms, the same poll for POLITICO suggests. Some 48 percent of respondents support the U.K.’s use of Section 35, compared to just 21 percent who oppose it. The other third didn’t offer an opinion. Meanwhile, 40 percent reckon Westminster should have the power to block all devolved legislation, compared with 33 percent who think otherwise.

No thanks: More Brits (45 percent) are against the proposed gender reforms than in support of them (28 percent) — particularly on the age issue. Just 13 percent thought 16 was the right age to be allowed a legal gender change, while most plumped for either 18 (31 percent) or 21 (22 percent.)

Speaking of BoJo: Most people (54 percent) still reckon the Conservatives were right to boot the ex-PM out of Downing Street, according to the same Redford and Wilton poll for POLITICO mentioned above. Some 35 percent said the nation would be a worse place if he hadn’t been kicked out, compared with 22 percent who thought it would be a better place. An impressive 44 percent would be less willing to vote for the Conservatives if Johnson was back in charge, versus 19 percent who would be more willing and 27 percent who were indifferent.

And in more good news for Rishi … Most Brits think Sunak’s performance on the war in Ukraine has been about the same as Johnson’s, at 51 percent. Another 21 percent reckon it’s been worse, while 11 percent think it’s been better.
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Re: UK Politics 2020-Cummings lockdown scandal

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Reshuffle today so a few thoughts from before

Humorous article on Truss return

-Zahawi gone for severe breaches of the ministerial code in his handling of the tax scandal. Well liked and still had good-will from vaccines, might have recovered if he had owned up to it and been honest but would have hung around him. The bullying, the dragging his party through it and now with the inquiry having come out more firmly on this then might have been expected when launching, done too much damage.

-Drip drip drip against Raab. A danger for Tories is the idea that it is the pack hunting down their next target rather then "wait, three departments are complaining about bullying, something is wrong here" means they will be tone death in response as some are being. Most are being quiet, waiting to see what the inquiry says but a few have been unwise

-The danger for Sunak is, partly Zahawi reminds people of his own tax affairs (and going around via private helicopters won't help) but mostly the sleaze makes him a weak leader. Williamson, Braverman, Richard Sharp, Zahawi, Raab plus association with Boris. Yes some of these are legacy issues, yes there are huge question marks about Simon Case (what he knew, what he told or didn't tell, failure to protect staff) but Sunak has been slow to turn to inquiries, ignored warnings when appointing (and why were two of his key figures in his rise scandal ridden? What draws such people to Sunak?), ignored past in reappointing Braverman, quiet when scandal hits.

Sunak needs to be firmer but he also needs to be a reformer. He refuses to let his ethics team launch their own inquiries, civil servants didn't use formal complaints as they had no faith in the procedure so why not change that? He needs to be firmer and bolder when wrong-doing occurs to help distance him from it and take the hit within the party that it will sometimes lead to and be able to turn to public on election camapign, "yes we have been scandal hit and I have done this and this and this to protect the integrity of government, to ensure future wrong-doing is dealt with"

-Truss, oh Truss. Sure, I share some concerns about problems facing the country so at least she tried with childcare and growth but her solutions were a disaster. She loves the free market yet she now accuses it and everyone from Biden, Tories and the Bank of England of being disloyal left-wingers. Maybe if the growth plan hadn't been unfunded tax cuts for the rich that even the Marxist Bible the Finical Times thought was a bit much? She was warned repeatedly in the run up and responded by purging, she was ousted becuase of the moron premium that still haunts the Tories which came about via her own decisions. Failure to apologize properly is not a good look or going to help people look again at some of her ideas, particularly as the public have not forgiven or forgotten
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Re: UK Politics 2020-Reshuffle!

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-Sunak will be delighted the reshuffle only leaked (in form of how the business department would be split rather then names) 24 hours before to Harry Cole and caught many by surprise. His team kept it quiet

-May have to go again if Raab goes, so far it is a limited reshuffle around the business department reform and replacing Zahawi

-Trade has been merged into business, science and digital taken out of culture (always an odd placing) to become own department which is a priority area for Sunak, energy department has been revived with a focus on energy security, cutting prices and net zero which was a leadership pledge (and something backed by Ed Miliband and which Labour have). In themselves, not bad departments to have but will be delays as Whitehall sorts itself out. Sunak not thought to be the biggest fan of the business department from his time at the Treasury and seeing it as not pro-business enough.

Grant Shapps gets energy, time will tell if this is a slight demotion (government briefing just below great offices of state) but not a surprise he got one of the three jobs. A skilled media performer and energetic minister seen as a capable pair of hands though he didn't seem to do well on handling strikes with a hard-line approach, he will do something if Whitehall changes settle down but the Whitehall reforms will delay things. Don't expect much on climate change, this will be about energy security and prices though he will do something as he had a transport I suspect. Will be supported by Graham Stuart, who had energy brief anyway for the not very green lead on climate, Andrew Bowie moves from exports to energy

Deducted point for being Sunkaky on climate change, they accept it is happening, things need to be done and will do something but nowhere near enough. 7/10

Michelle Donelan gets science and tech after Gove refused to move from levelling up, essentially moving from culture and taking her brief with her in what is probably a promotion. Will allow her to (probably) keep piloting the online safety bill which would be my guess as to why she has this job (her intrests seem better suited to culture or other posts but parliament does lack science experts), will be going on maternity leave shortly. Science has often been shuffled from department to department but now has it's own with a secretary of state around the cabinet table and a PM who is very much keen on Silicon Valley, wanting one of our own. Will be joined by George Freeman (who some suspect may be feeling he was better suited to this role then Donelan and he has had to deny being unhappy) and Paul Scully who were both in appropriate roles anyway so just moving across

6/10

Kemi Badenoch gets business, trade and remains head of board of trade+equalities so a promotion as moved from a sidelined role into a (if slimmer) still substantial department. The rising star of the Tory right has mostly avoided scandal at trade and managed to seem active while managing to contrast with Truss in taking a more deliberate pace, former finical services figure who I wonder might have been a better choice at science given her programming background.

Will likely push the department to the right on economic policy (though even figures like Kwarteng tended to move to the left on things like business strategy) and be a big test for her, a chance to prove herself. Trade minister Nigel Huddleston comes with Badenoch, Nusrat Ghani (also in cabinet office) stays, Kevin Hollinrake stays, Stuart Andrew remains in culture department but comes across as equalities support. One change in supporting cast, health minister Maria Caulfield rewarded as she now doubles up with business, not entirely sure what the NHS needs

Deducted point for I don't see Badenoch's vision of the future one that will be good for people but I recognize my ideology can't take up the score and Sunak has political reality to deal with 6

So the business reshuffle is a sensible one once Sunak decided to go down those routes, keeps three secretary of states in post and means only mini changes needed. To replace Zahawi and Donelan

Lucy Frazer moves from housing to head the Ministry of Fun/Culture department. This has led to cries of despair as 14th housing minister to leave the post since the Conservatives came back to power in 2010, and the fifth in the past 12 months. Frazer has long been a rising star who has never quite got the promotion, the barrister has done well in junior roles and been a trusted media presence. Not sure what her culture or sports connections are though, more a "have role, here is a talented figure, go have it."

6

Greg Hands becomes party chair, moving from trade. A close ally of Sunak, one who has said he has paid his taxes (when very quickly asked), long been a respected junior minister who does his job quietly and well, fluent in several languages and experienced figure who has served as whip and where treasury needed him. However having a Remainer party chair on a Brexiteer party might be... intresting and though known as a skilled local campaigner, he helped run Shaun Bailey's infamous mayoral camapign which may not inspire confidence. A safe figure in most posts but wonder if, with the very different role that party chair (media man, winning over local parties, election camapigns) is a good idea.

Sunak has sought to counter Hands weakness with a... bizarre pick. Lee Anderson. On some levels, he fits the bill, he is from the Red Wall unlike the London based Hands (with Red Wall very concerned team Sunak is too south facing), not a technocrat, a miner, Brexiteer, has good relations with local parties so may be able to help Hands there. Also brings a critic into the tent, reassuring backbenches on immigration for example. He is also an idiot who will grab the headlines from this reshuffle due to tendency to pick fights and say not very nice things. Like the food-banks comment. One MP has said to Sam Coates
Lee Anderson is everything that is wrong with the Conservative Brand presently. He seems to rejoice in deliberately provoking and making aggressive simplistic statements that fail to represent the complexities of the issues facing this country. If this is the new Tory party, many will be forgiven for deserting it
In a generally sensible reshuffle (people will complain about Whitehall reshuffle and timing but if not now, when?), the chair and deputy is the one major issue, Anderson is a disaster waiting to happen and Hands may not be the best suited despite his general competence. 3

Overall, a reshuffle that has gone smoothly (Gove not moving from levelling up isn't going to weaken Sunak), choices that make enough sense even I'm not delighted and major change in terms of departments that could well benefit the country in the future. One major weakness though 7

I'll look at junior ranks tomorrow

Non-reshuffle

-Love the Lord Hague line "If you became prime minister, with a majority behind you and a decent term in front of you, but were overthrown amid chaos, there is indeed someone to blame. It’s you"

-Yay that we seem to be getting somewhere on Northern Ireland protocol but the DUP/ERG problem remains with Sunak seeming reluctant to even pretend agreements have happened
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Re: UK Politics 2023-Reshuffle

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Lord Johnson of Lainston and Lord Callanan are transferred from trade to business, vice chair Rachel Maclean gets the housing job, Julia Lopez role in her three PM's time at department of culture is tweaked, treasury whip Amanda Solloway remains as Treasury whip but gets promotion to serve in energy department having once served in business. Lord Parkinson of Whitley Bay gets a promotion within culture department, Sunak supporter Ruth Edwards promoted from backbenches to be a whip within treasury.

Insititute of Government on reshuffle

-Jared O'Mara convicted of expenses fraud to get drugs
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Re: UK Politics 2023-Reshuffle

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Apparently Nicola Sturgeon has resigned as First Minister of Scotland Read: Prime Minister, essentially.

I'm only posting this note here because Dong Zhou seems absent.

Nonetheless it made the top of Reddit for a minute. The media seem generally confused if the BBC's reaction is anything to go on.
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Re: UK Politics 2023-Sturgeon going

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Lord Yang Jiahua wrote: Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:03 am
Nonetheless it made the top of Reddit for a minute. The media seem generally confused if the BBC's reaction is anything to go on.


Yeah, nobody saw it coming till "hey press conference in an hour". General expectation was she wouldn't see two Holyrood elections (she has been in office a long long time) but everyone thought next election and possibly a referendum

Sturgeon going is huge. She has been a leading figure in Scottish politics for decades and the leading figure in Scotland since the independence referendum. One of the great communicators in the UK (there is an argument Scotland did no better then Westminster on covid but Sturgeon's communication and careful tone vs Boris bombast meant a lot less blame), a brilliant campaigner who won election after election, a cautious and astute politician usually. People will long debate how successful the SNP have been in actual governing with other parties long thinking that will catch up for them but never has.

A lot of what Sturgeon has said about why she is going rings true. She has been in office a long time, covid crises will have taken a lot out of many public figures, she has been at funerals and seen her niece/nephew grow up without her, all will have taken a toll. Key issues with independence had become about Sturgeon and whose was loyal to her, there have been some concerns for awhile Scottish politics has been too SNP centred but in a key SNP issue, it had become unusually leader centred. Others though have pointed to the recent trans rights fight (this is a disaster for trans rights as will put off leaders from taking such steps in future) which has been unpopular, that her unusually risky policy on independence "we can't have referendum? Next election will be a referendum" is failing to convince even her own side (very much a problem) and police investigation into a loan her husband gave to the party.

There has been "independence is dead, SNP will suffer defeat", that is vastly over-egging. The biggest disaster is for trans rights becuase it will be seen as bringing down a giant and "confirm" it was too far ahead of the public, may even be scrapped by SNP. It is a big blow for Scottish independence (though I still think it will happen) as lost one of their best and (still) most popular advocates but the issue is wider then her. Polls are not indicating independence is wanted (there will be debate about if Sturgeon wasted the post-Brexit window but on a lot of things, other advocates were backing the general plan) and the SNP don't know how to get a referendum now legal challenge has failed, SNP have some big thinking to do.

For the SNP? Last time, it was a coronation. This time, I believe the big poll winner for SNP successor is "don't know" (then the young version of their chancellor Kate Forbes) and SNP's infamous unity is splintering on social issues and way forward for independence. How they handle those divides could be key between a setback and a complete disaster. Scottish Labour have high hopes with Anas Sarwar thought to be popular and they believe they can at least shrink the SNP's majority.


Other big news was Labour out of ECHR special measures over anti-Semitism. Starmer warned that they couldn't be complacent and still work to do but Jewish groups generally seem to have been supportive and Starmer used it to make a stand. Corbyn will not be allowed (though he is expected to try) to stand for Labour at next election. It puts a dilemma on Corbyn supporting activists and Momentum as against the rules to campaign against a Labour candidate (I'm not a fan of that rule) and could lead to their expulsion from the party
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