UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:52 pm

-Courts ruleArticle 50 can be stopped unilaterally, Gove says doesn't matter as we are leaving anyway, Rees-Mogg says it seems a fair reading of article 50 but doesn't matter, People's Vote delighted. Domestic court dismisses case questioning validity of referendum

-Brexit vote pulled (vory bill and general debate replacing on Tuesday) General sense if May will seek emergency meetings to get clarity and promises that backstop won't last forever in hopes that will sooth the key issue and then return to parliament however vote might not be held till next year. That may be a attempt to buy time for talks (given EU is not exactly thrilled and don't want to reopen major talks) and to squeeze MP's as they feel the panic and pressure of no deal. Bercow has rebuked government has a lot of MP's have spoken in debate and news leaked to press first, tries to pressure government in putting delay to Commons but that isn't going to happen.

In Commons statement, May has repeated her warnings no backstop means no deal, promises emergency talks but lists ways EU have been made to compromise on backstop by May, no deal planning will be stepped up and those MP's want deal but don't like hers should find an alternative. Those who pretend to want deal but second referendum should be honest about it though she warns it is divisive, those saying single market and a customs union (hello Labour) need to admit it means free movement, no dealers should admit the immense damage. She also warns aimed at DUO) the need to keep non-DUP voter onside if union is to survive and the backstop is only way to keep communities stable, that those who disagree with border need to actually provide solutions rather then rhetoric. Corbyn attacked government of being in dissaray and that parliament should be allowed to dictate terms of her talks, Tusk says won't reopen talks but will try "to facilitate UK ratification"

Tusk, Mekrel, Rutte, Juncker and Vardaker in calls May ahead of important week but says nothing of what they talked about, May held emergency conference call with cabinet. Sturgeon said pulling vote would be cowardly and dereliction of duty, pound collapsed, business groups are screaming in agony. The EC says they are not redoing the deal and Vardkaer (while remarking UK red lines are why deal is as it is) says all that can be done is "clarification", some Brexiteers indicated they would block the attempt to pull motion as required business motion to be amended, Verhofstadt wonders what is going on and how delay helps, Sir Cable says marching her troops then backing off has weakened May, Carywn Jones suggests shambles is too polite a word.

-By all accounts, mood really hostile for May (who got luahed at when saying she was listening to MP's) and Leadsom

-Barclay says if we reopen talks then France, Spain and so on will also be asking for more, vote goes ahead, Norway doesn't honour the result due to freedom of movement

-Dodds says "back deal or Corbyn gets in" is a scare story by May and they won't always support May if she can't get a good Brexit and deal being pulled shows nobody believes it is the best deal, praises the Irish government as skilled negotiators

-Brexit betrayal march includes a noose for May. Shocking

-Shadow Minister for Sport Dr Rosena Allin-Khan backs referendum as Brexit is proving far from what was promised, Corbyn has said he will have a word about her appearing in People's Vote rally without permission

-Sun and Mail wanted Brexit vote postponed, papers have noted McVey, Boris and Raab have refused to rule out running for leadership

-Burgeon says legal aid cuts are a false economy

-Economy grew 0.1% in October due to manufacturing fall, trade gap widens

-Mayor Khan considering rent controls, if he goes ahead then this could shift housing debate significantly

-Gove had said vote would go ahead, May seeking to improve deal but if talks really reopen there are risks, MP's don't fully appreciate the advantages backstop bring and the concessions EU put into it, he has persuaded some to come round to deal, doesn't rule out future leadership but calls it extremely unlikely

-Coveny says substance of deal won't change

-Sir Alan Duncan condemns and demands full inquiry into state funded body meant to be countering Russian propaganda attacking Corbyn

-SNP are challenging Labour to lay a joint no confidence motion, Labour may be reluctant as May would likely win it and come out stronger though of course they may not wish to allow SNP to portray themselves as more anti-Tory and Labour as an uncooperative . Lib Dems and Plaid have backed SNP idea, 50 Labour MP's have called for it but Labour says they want to wait till after May brings back deal

-Baroness Shami Chakrabarti warns those backing People's Vote need to listen to Brexiteers as to why they voted Brexit

-Foster says backstop has to go and disappointed May has taken so long to listen

-Brady wants change on backstop but feels there is progress within party for support of deal

-Dr Fox says happy for vote to wait till after Christmas if need be

-When May said 'Does this house want to deliver Brexit?', SNP shouted in unison "No". Normally such things can be amusing but on this matter, I think it has just annoyed a lot of people

-There had been a sense that £ had factored in no deal more or less. It's collapse today suggests that wasn't the case. Worst performing major currency by a mile today

-Current expectation of Brexit vote in January

====

-McVey says she would really consider run for leadership if May was ousted, if May loses vote she needs to immediately get better deal from Brussels or things will be difficult for May, should remove backstop, stop payments as no point, Universal Credit is first time benefits system makes work pay

-Boris denies already offering ministerial jobs in exchange for backing, May can stay on if she loses and a defeat could help tell EU they need to offer better deal, backstop puts UK in diabolical negotiating position, he feels a great sense of personal responsibility (stop laughing please) for what happens with Brexit, should withhold half of promised money to pressure EU into a good trade deal, if they get Brexit right then they have a fantastic future

-Umunna May gets no sympathy from him and backbenches providing the opposition on Brexit

-Sir Grieve worries Tories will split and have to change due to Brexit, feels there are issues both sides can cooperate on but party is paralysed by Brexit, Boris would be a disastrous leader and he would have to consider resigning the whip.

-Kwarteng thinks one or MP's might retire or leave as sometimes happens but doesn't think Brexit will lead to great split

-Neil Hamilton calls Macron an agent of a foreign power rather then representing people of France

-Lord Hesltine says Remainers are patriots and wants a voice in Europe

-Caroline Lucas says Britain deserves better then May's narrow minded vision of Brexit, deal doesn't deliver on referendum promises, youngest people will be betrayed the most by Brexit, can't understand why Labour supports a project of the right like Brexit (I don't recall Green's being overly enthusiastic about staying in EU till referendum)

-Cleverly says rejecting deal will lead to damaging uncertainty

-Rees-Mogg says people didn't vote to be under ECJ and said after vote was pulled "I think that this is a rotten day for the government. And it is a humiliating day ... I think the feeling is sad that the government is in such a mess. I thought it was as humiliating for the government to pull the vote as to lose by 100.", backstop withdrawal would help but wants a smaller divorce bill and thinks only a new PM can win, May's policy has failed. Today has been damaging for Tories and a humiliation for the country

-Sir Cable doubts Brexit will happen now and will be backlash if an economically damaging deal happens without referendum

-IDS says a lot of people will feel betrayed if second referendum

-Rory Stewart suspects backstop is being used as an excuse to reject May's deal

-Ellwood says he will vote for deal but we are coming to point where referendum mandate is out of date

-Sir Alan Duncan resents glee some have in attacking May's deal and jostling for personal gain

-Before deal was pulled, Davidson ally John Lamont and the normally loyal Freeman warned they would vote against deal

-Baker says deal delay shows it has been defeated and backstop changes won't be enough

-Stephen Kinnock wants no confidence vote

-Redwood says no deal would, thanks to not paying divorce bill, would be cashing in rater then crashing out

-Cooper worried that we could get no deal by government simply never bringing a deal to Commons, we are being made to look ridiculous, there can be no trust with ministers after being told 5 hours before vote would go ahead and not being told date of next vote

-Francois accuses government of complete abuse of the Commons and shameful behaviour, they seem to see contempt as buy one get one free

-Rupa Huq and May have a rather... adult yet juvenile exchange that I dare not post here

====

-John Harris Brexit reveals long running divides

-D'Anonca calls for calm statesmanship

-Ruth Sunderland warns MP's behaviour is putting off foreign investors

-Ava Lee [ on UK's record on fighting corruption

-Freedland delay understandable but disastrous
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:49 pm

-Government has promised Brexit vote before January 21st, had been seen as a deadline till Commons clerks pointed out the deadline had been unknowingly scrubbed out by an amendment but number 10 seeking to reassure they will keep to it anyway

-May meets Rutte, Merkel (May got locked in car on arrival) and successor Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Tusk and Junker while phoned Chancellor Kurz as she tours Europe, nobody willing to reopen talks so far. Will meet Vadaker tomorrow, Tusk saying he wants to help but seems uncertain as to how.

-Barclay dodges around how much money spent fighting in court over if UK had unilateral right to pull article 50, says hard to read mood of house due to Labour's constant changing of mind (May's government not in a position to make that charge), says they will appeal in Scottish courts against recent judgement (apparently though, that isn't possible)

-DUP says they would support a censure vote against government

-Bercow agrees to Labour call (backed by some Tories) for a 3 hour debate on government postponing vote

-Russel-Moyle expelled from chamber (but only for day which was near end) for grabbing mace in protest as government postponing debate, without mace Commons can't debate but he made no struggle when Commons security grabbed it back. I get the impression MP's are not pleased with him which may explain his article since

-Rudd says every party needs to make compromises on Brexit, says failure to find compromise is the real shame

-Papers not pleased with May

-Times says Blunt has put in letter of no confidence

-Rees-Mogg and Baker trying to musture Tory confidence vote

-Brady says some MP's are angry, some fidgety but most are pleased to avoid a needless defeat

-Concerns at finical state of government key third party contractor Interserve

-Carywn Jones says he considered resigning in aftermath of Sargeant's suicide

-Foreign Office says charity Institute for Statecraft tweeting anti-Corbyn attacks was due to Russian hacking

-Leadsom says EU has history of last minute deals so May could get concessions, accuses Bercow of acting against Brexit in Commons (long running battle between the two of them)

-EU summit adds Brexit segment

-Lord Callanan, the Brexit minister, says they are seeking legally binding backstop reassurances

-Sammy Wilson says May's mindset means she will fail to get what she needs from EU

-Treasury Committee says government econimic analysis on Brexit was inadequate and based on most optimistic scenario of Chequers plan

-Opposition leaders urging Corbyn to lay down no confidence motion (in practical terms, only he can do so and get it debated) but does seem unlikely, McDonnell has accused SNP of doing it to avoid chances of a general election by having no confidence when May would likely win it while Lavery adresses members explaining no confidence is pointless and would help May while stopping Labour of getting an election, Sturgeon responds by saying Labour trying to dodge out of a second referendum.

-When Hammond tells McDonnell he should vote for Brexit deal, Bercow intervenes "It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote"

-Pay-growth at highest in 10 years at 3.3% in three months to October though adjusting for inflation, highest since end of 2016, unemployment up but record numbers in work, people moving from part-time to full time and more jobs being created.

-Corbyn postpones meeting with Blackford

-Corbyn says he has never witnessed such a mess as May's Brexit, she has demeaned office by pulling vote, she is only seeking reassure rather then real talks and wants Brexit vote as soon as May returns from Brussels

-Lidington points out May has spent a lot of time in Commons of late and backstop came up again and again, Jan 21st seen as deadline rather then target, admit he isn't sure if Brexit debate starts from scratch or continues where left of (which means those who have spoken can't speak), all sides need to face home truths about Brexit and their preferred options.

-Vadaker says EU no deal plans won't be finalized till mid January and rejected Sinn Feinn calls for a border poll, says the threat of no deal can be pulled by UK delaying Brexit

-Hammond says he still backs May's deal as best option and it protects City of London, argues cutting regulation does not make a country more attractive to business

-Lots of rumours about the 48 letters


=====

-Cameron says he doesn't regret referendum as it was a promise to public, backs May in her efforts

-Peter Kyle remarks ‘Isn’t it true that no Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister?’

-Skinner accuses May of being frit, SNP accusing Skinner of calling various members a piece of s

-Sir Major says there has been breathtaking Brexit ignorance and of Good Friday from so called unionists, backstop is vital for Ireland, UK and peace, Troubles started with murder of custom officials in 60's, harder border would reawaken the haters and article 50 should be revoked.

-Hilary Benn backs Labour delaying no confidence motion

-Rory Stewart suggests locking all MP's in chamber until they agree a Brexit solution

-IDS says there has been a major mood shift among MP's and people who had vowed not to send in letters against May are doing so

-McCluskey warns against Corbyn being bounced into early election

- Jack Sargeant remained seated during standing ovation for Carywn Jones retirement speech and says a peerage to the First Minister would be a slap in the face

-Boris says he is on diet and giving up drink which will be seen as a leadership move

-Road Haulage Association saying no deal plans would mean an average lorry with food would take eight hours to clear checks at Dover.

=====

-Toynbee Brexit

-Kuessenberg on what now

-Tom Peck not impressed by May

-Roger Harrabin on 5 good and 5 bad things government has done on environment

-Anne McElvoy cabinet members need to be honest about what kind of Brexit tthey really prefer
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:37 am

48 letters have been reached, May faces no confidence vote tonight

A few weeks ago, I would say May survives this even after heavy defeat but pulling the vote has seen support collapse

Edit: Ballot closes at 8pm and result will be announced tonight, May expected to win but issue is by what scale
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:23 pm

The last 62 hours have been horrendous. I think May will win the vote of no confidence but won''t get her deal through the HoC. I just don't see what happens next. There is no positive outcome anymore.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:22 pm

Sun Fin wrote:The last 62 hours have been horrendous. I think May will win the vote of no confidence but won''t get her deal through the HoC. I just don't see what happens next. There is no positive outcome anymore.


They have, she needs to win by a decent margin. Also agree that I can't see her winning the Brexit vote and more chaos and can't see positivity either

======

-No Confidence Vote: Rumours were circulating heavily late Tuesday that the 48 had been reached with Brady asking to meet May after PMQ's with Brandon Lewis and Julian Smith having a frantic evening meeting with May on her return. Sir Brady instead phoned and has said she was business like about it, ballot from 6-8 with Brady to tell May results first around 9pm before public. Ladbrookes drew up odds with Boris and Raad both at 5/1, Gove 7/1, Hunt and Javid at 8/1 the lead Remain figures. The cabinet as expected pledged their loyalty (whether some of them will actually vote that way is another matter) with none going for shock resignation or quiet though the speed of which most had come out was impressive, by 11:00 May had 142 declarations of support (145 by PMQ's), needs 158 to win by 1 (which would be crippling) and pledges have gone over that by afternoon. May's team seem to have organized well, getting loyalists to flood media, getting cabinet backing quickly.

May goes onto steps of Downing Street vows to fight it with everything they have and lists reasons this vote is stupid, she was meant to be going to Dublin but had to cancel that, timeframe means article 50 would either have to be delayed or Brexit cancelled and replacement wouldn't have time to reopen talks, Tories are meant to be a modern pragmatic party, a leader wouldn't be in place by January 21st which means opposition MP's could take control and new leader won't have time to do much before Brexit deadline, change of leadership won't change parliamentary reality or EU attitudes, weeks long division benefits only Labour, not the party or the country.

May's claims of leadership contest meaning it will miss deadlines is widely questioned. Betting markets give May survival at 77% with Boris fav to replace her if she loses, by end of PMQ's BBC said she had reached 158 declared (of course, always possible it is 158 fibbers) and BBC clearing evening schedule for it. Ruth Davidson, making first intervention since going on maternity leave, threw her support behind May, describing the PM as having cojones of steel and of punishing workrate but the restoration of Andrew Giffiths and May's "vow" to step down by next election left questions about how confident government is

====

-Hammond says Sheerman is an expert at synthetic anger, today is flushing out the extremists whose agenda would damage the country. May apparently mentioned in 1922 committee there are no extremists here


-Sinn Fein says backstop is non negotiable (as they won't turn up to Westminster when May and N.Ireland needed them, that can be ignored) and want a referendum on Ireland if no deal

-Gauke says if May loses, Brexit will have to be delayed

-Gardiner points out if Labour had put in no confidence yesterday, today's events likely don't happen

-Dr Fox sarcastic about Brexiteers saying a win is a win on EU referendum but May requires to win by a certain amount, trade deal will be more straightforward then this part of Brexit, no deal will hurt people but not those advocating for it, warns cabinet might not back deal unless backstop is reformed

-Sammy Wilson says DUP deal is with Tories rather then May, they will back new leader as long as backstop changes

-Sir Brady says the MP's whittling down to two could be done within ten days but the membership ballot is not up to him

-Foster not surprised at no confidence vote

-May greeted with huge cheers at PMQ's with May quipping she will be having many meetings today, she seems remarkably relaxed even if performance wasn't good, Philip May was watching.

-May, though she says she wants to in her heart, promised 1922 committee not to lead the next election though she is refusing to give a date and if an early election she may lead that. She knows concerns about her leading to such election is a real potential issue among her MPs though declaring it is going to hamper her and suggests she is worried about tonight (she may also calculate she can do it with fingers crossed behind her back, Rees-Mogg has pointed out "my intention" is not a promise)

-Gove predicts May to win handsomely (when asked to put a number, ‘I studied English, not maths’.)but is rather more respectful then Hammond, asks them to think carefully,

-Pound leaps in delight as markets predict May wins

-New Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford says Tories have descended into madness

-European Parliament says they will refuse to back a deal without a backstop

-Andrew Griffiths restored to Tory whip, had been suspended since July due to sexual misconduct allegations. That he will vote May on no confidence day would suggest this isn't because he is repentant or been cleared. Rather later Charlie Elphicke (who opposes May's deal) is restored, there may have been pressure once Griffiths was in not to be seen as blatantly skewing the vote. Labour not happy and they have every right to press on this

-Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin (I believe they are second largest party and in coaliton with Vadaker's?) says Westminster chaos is endangering Irish economy and now is not time to risk Irish election , May's no confidence vote is due to fundamentalist wing of Tories “seem to be determined to destroy all around them rather than ever compromise”. and remarking "extreme Europhobia has developed over forty years and it will not respond to evidence or reason.

-Mike Russell has brought the term clusterbùrach into political circles (bùrach is Galcic for mess)

-Quite a few MP's saying 1922 committee was quite emotional in terms of tears in eyes and feelings towards May, she will take that

-Margot James first to vote with most voting early

=====

-Morgan suggests government of national unity or a free vote on Brexit deal, parliament must stop posturing and step in

-Skinner tells journalist he was putting Stewart McDonald in his place for heckling Corbyn when he swore at them.

-Osamar has asked for space as recent events have taken toll on her health

-Green calls the no confidence vote an act of monumental self indulgence that will be viewed badly by the public

-Paterson confirmed he was one as “proposed ‘deal’ is so bad that it cannot be considered anything other than a betrayal of clear manifesto promises” and May is blocking a true free trade deal, acting like a feeble supplicant to EU, failed to prepare for no deal and lost trust.

-Lord Lester persuaded to resign from Lords due to allegations against him

-BBC have more questions about Ian Paisley expenses

-Ed Vaizey bemoans 12 hours of middle aged men getting on news and politics show attacking the PM

-Dorries says some cabinet figures are fibbing when they declare support (says better to look at those actively campaigning to help May) but think May will just survive which will leave May badly damaged. May lacks respect and authority among EU, need a stronger negotiator who will freelance rather then rely on technical papers, would like Rudd to run for leadership, cynical about those saying they would resign whip if certain figures became leader but then suggests some might if May wins.

-Heidi Allen thinks she would resign Tory whip if Boris or Rees-Mogg became leader, wants government of national unity

-Sir Cash seems minded to support Raab

-Rees-Mogg calls for May to resign, country needs new leader

-Cameron backs May

-Business groups being unusually direct in hammering Tory MP's for this move

-Simon Heart calls the no confidencers self indulgent and vengeful

-Ed Miliband jokes May can look forward to a future of podcasting

-Sir Jenkin admits he sent in letter of no confidence yesterday, being called an extremist by Hammond is Orwellian since what he wants is what 52% of people wanted, too many in parliament seek to frustrate the will of the people

-Mercer says some in cabinet are being two faced and both sides are trying to bully people, feels Hammond's comment was misjudged

-Davis says May's 1922 speech was a good one

====

-Nicolas Watt on Tories angry and confused at Ireland's attitudes

-D'Arcy on parliamentary no confidence vote could work differently then people think

-Marina Hyde not been impressed by the political week so far
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:57 pm

The results of the confidence vote should be posted any minute now right? (~20 GMT)
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:00 pm

Sort of! Vote ends now but they count them manually so result will come through sometime in the next hour...
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:04 pm

If she gets kicked to the curb, how long does it take to select a new leader? Would that also happen tonight?
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:12 pm

Good question! For the record I can't see her losing. But if she does it take some time.

To start with Conservative MPs nominate candidates.

If there is just one candidate (which is what happened when May won) they will become leader.

If there are two then it goes to the grassroots members to vote.

If more than 2 are nominated then it goes to a multi-round ballot among the MPs. After each round the person with the least number of votes is out and they have a new ballot. This continues until there are just 2 candidates and then it goes to the grassroots members.

So it could take a really long time, which is one of the reasons so many people are furious about this.

I definitely can't see just one candidate being nominated. A lot of people view the lack of debate and no grassroots member vote when May was appointed as being a big contributor to the problems now. It meant the conservative party didn't debate what kind of Brexit it wanted which directly lead to the lack of consensus now.

Personally I can see it going one of two ways. There are a lot of different factions within the party in regards to Brexit and possibly each wing will want to put out a candidate. That would take a long time. The alternative is that the moderate, soft Brexiters and Remainers rally around one or two unity figures to stop Boris Johnson who is hated by most of his colleagues and quite a lot of the country.

Most papers seem to be suggesting Rudd will be the unity candidate. Personally I can't see anyone, but especially her, beating BoJo in the grassroots vote, they are the only constituency left that like him. Therefore there need to be 2 candidates that outscore him among the MPs. I don't really like any of the candidates. May is still the least bad option.
Last edited by Sun Fin on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:18 pm

And I thought Murican government processes were confusing. :shock:

There's barely any news sources here discussing it outside of what amounts to "It's happening but we dunno what it is." :lol:

I await the reactions from Mr. Dong and Mr. Sun.
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