What if the Manchu had not conquered China?

[Mistelten]

In my opinion, China took on a lot of dead weight with the Qing but overall it retained its national identity and borders. The court was nothing like that of the Yuan, which was an occupation force from the day it started until the day it was thrown out. Qing China did stagnate towards the end but that isn't the only place you can blame China's downfall on. The early 20th century was a time of madness that hit every country in the world pretty hard. China had the most unfortunate lot of all, except maybe Serbia.

[Koichi]

The nearly 400-yr long lifespan of the Qing dynasty leaves plenty of room for indeterminable variables

1) political- as I've mentioned in an earlier post, for a laundry list of reasons (ie inept rulers, corrupt bureaucracy, natural disasters), the Ming dynasty was on its way out for reasons independent of any action by the Qing. As others have mentioned, at the time the Qing entered China proper, there was already a dynamic, capable rebel general, Li Zicheng, who captured Beijing. The Qing entry was actually a military intervention requested by Ming general Wu Sangui. Had the Qing not enterred, Li Zicheng was a solid candidate for new Emperor. If not him, another rebel perhaps. But it's quite certain the bell tolled for the Ming dynasty in 1644.

2) military- I'm not an expert on the Qing dynasty but one thing that struck me was the effectiveness of their military. Keep in mind, the Qing represented China in her period of greatest territorial expansion. I'm sure the Mongols didn't come over when the Chinese said 'please'. Had the Qing not ruled China we might see a repeat of the Song (a militarily feeble China giving ground to stronger border enemies). Since the world entered the modern era where sovereignty was taken more seriously, China might have to sit for considerably less territory than it has today. Heck, we might not be arguing about Taiwan or Tibet.

3) social- we all know repressive autocracy is not a characteristic of Manchu rulers. In fact, that was probably one of the things they learned from the Chinese. As I've written before, I believe anti-Manchu sentiment was a convenient focus for Chinese nationalists in the 20th century. However, as of 1644, there's little reason to believe a native Chinese regime would be less autocratic or more readily embraced liberalism or democracy than the Qing.

Neither was the self-destructive inward-looking policy a Qing invention; that also started with the Ming. After the reign of Ming Xuande, the Chinese disbanded the Dragon Fleet and, in doing so, forfeited an advantage they could've had over the Europeans. We also have little evidence a native Chinese regime would reverse this policy.

In conclusion, racial differences aside, the Qing was quite characteristic of native Chinese dynasties. After all, the Manchus modeled their kingdom after the Chinese. In doing so, they built up a nation stable and strong enough to challenge the Chinese, then eventually take their place as rulers of the Middle Kingdom. They alone cannot be blamed for all the catastrophes that beset the country in the 20th century.

[Cao Chao]

Manchus not conquer China? So does that mean Li Zicheng (李自成) attains victory?

There are a few possible events (in the late Ming period) that could lead up to the Manchu failure to conquer China. There are several very important players in this string of events:

The first is of course, Li Zicheng, self-styled Roaming King (闖王), was a rebel. In April of 1644, Li Zicheng had conquered and sacked Beijing (北京). Emperor Chongzhen (崇禎皇帝), Zhu Youjian (朱由檢), had hung himself on the Guilty Chinese Scholartree. With victory at hand, he declares himself Emperor of the Shun Dynasty.

The second is Wu Sangui (吳三桂). By 1644, he is one of the ranking military commanders of the Ming Dynasty. With his well-trained army, he is the commander of the vitally important and fortified Shanhai Guan (山海关).

The third is Dorgon (多爾袞), half-brother of Huang Taiji (皇太极) and the regent for the Shunzhi Emperor (順治皇帝). He was the highest ranking member of the Qing Dynasty court and a capable commander. It was he who ultimately plotted with Wu Sangui to open the gates of Shanhai Guan and permit the Manchu armies to enter into the Central Plains.

---

The first (and probably the most probable) would be that Li Zicheng (or one of his ranking subordinates, depending on the tale) does not espouse Wu Sangui's concubine, Chen Yuanyuan (陈圆圆). As a result, Wu Sangui does not permit the Manchu armies passage through Shanhai Guan and does not help Qing conquer the Middle Kingdom.

The second (and probably unlikely) is that Wu Sangui fails in his treachery and is unable to open the gates of Shanhai Guan and permit the Manchu armies passage into the Central Plains.

The third is that even though Wu Sangui opens the gates of Shanhai Guan, Li Zicheng manages to attain victory at the crucial battle before the gates.

---

There is a bit of problem with this what if scenario. The first would be the most plausible and permit the Han Chinese retain control of the Middle Kingdom. The second would only occur if Wu Sangui's subordinates did not have as high personal loyalty as they did. The third is especially implausible, as Li Zicheng's troops were outnumbered by the ultimately combined Wu Sangui and Dorgon troops. Finally, Li Zicheng's troops were exhausted, having fought continuously for months and having marched straight from the conquest of Beijing.

---

Li Zicheng's rebellion was highly successful, having conquered Beijing and ended roughly 300 years of Ming rule. Li Zicheng had already established his own Dynasty, the Shun. He had made civil appointments and was prepared to exert control over the entire country. The major problem with him, is the fact that Li Zicheng and his subordinates were ultimately bandits. Many of his subordinates when the rebellion 'ended' did not alter their ways and continued to pillage and harm the common people (it is said that Beijing was raped after its conquest and the common people were gravelly hurt by the depredations of the rebels). In addition, Li Zicheng only controlled northern China and parts of the rest. Ming remnants still held sway in the rest of China. Whoever would attain the ultimate victory is very difficult to say. No matter who wins, it is doubtful that the Middle Kingdom would know peace for quite some time.

[jiang cheng]

Actually to be fair to the Qing government, the people do achieve a higher standard of living as such that they are living in a better condition in the early part of the Qing dynasty when compare to the living conditions in the late Ming Dynasty.

Someone had told me before when i said that Qing are manchus so should be considered as "bad" like the Yuan dynasty.

he said that why are there racial issue when the benefits are greater for the commoners. Come and think of it, it is true. I would rather take the Qing dynasty rule for the stability of the commoners who would no longer starve and living in fear when compare to the late ming period.