Crisis in Catalonia

[DragonAtma]

So a couple days ago, Catalonia attempted a secession referendum, only for Spain to declare it illegal. Today they tried to force it through anyway, only for Spain to sieze ballots by force, hurting hundreds of people in the process.

Given that peaceful succession is no longer possible, there's a good chance Spain is headed towards a civil war.

[Bush Leagues]

Given that peaceful succession is no longer possible, there's a good chance Spain is headed towards a civil war.

I'm not completely convinced of that yet, but I imagine things are going to get worse before they get better.

I haven't kept up as much as I've wanted to, as I find the whole thing pretty interesting, and it's not exactly obvious what should be done in situations like this where some people wish to break off and others wish to stay.

[Sun Fin]

I feel like Spain have given the referendum more credibility by their actions. If they'd announced that it was illegal and then just ignored it happening it would have largely flown under the radar around the rest of the world. It would have taken time for Catalonia to stop talking about it but it might have happened eventually. Now they've created martyrs (I mean no-one died but anyone injured the the 'cause' will be more passionate than ever I'm sure) and Spain will be facing a lot of international pressure.

[Dong Zhou]

I feel like Spain is accidentally following handbook "how to ensure an area success from you and becomes it's own country". Not sure it is heading for civil war but Madrid will need to show a lot more tact and skill then they have been so far. Or simply not attacking people, that would be a start

[Sun Fin]

I have to say, ignoring the horrible fact that people have been harmed and the pain that it is causing, I do find events like these fascinating! I'm intrigued to see how events unfold over the next few days and weeks.

[Bush Leagues]

I have to say, ignoring the horrible fact that people have been harmed and the pain that it is causing, I do find events like these fascinating! I'm intrigued to see how events unfold over the next few days and weeks.

Yeah, I'm basically in the same boat. Obviously it would be best if these kinds of things could be completely peaceful, but it's obvious that they won't be, particularly with the Basques also paying close attention to see if they might want to try something too.

I feel like Spain have given the referendum more credibility by their actions. If they'd announced that it was illegal and then just ignored it happening it would have largely flown under the radar around the rest of the world. It would have taken time for Catalonia to stop talking about it but it might have happened eventually. Now they've created martyrs (I mean no-one died but anyone injured the the 'cause' will be more passionate than ever I'm sure) and Spain will be facing a lot of international pressure.

That may be, but I'm not entirely convinced of that.

My mostly uninformed gut feeling is that the separatists were mostly serious about this from the get-go. No doubt they've been a bit emboldened by the whole thing (Now you can say, in true Monty Python and the Holy Grail style, "Come and see the violence inherent in the system! Help, help! I'm being repressed!"), but I am not convinced it would have just gone away if the government just sat back and did nothing.

Potentially, it could have been the opposite. Imagine if Madrid says something like "Spain's constitution doesn't allow for succession, so what you're doing is completely illegal" and left it at that. It could have the opposite effect; now the separatists might think "Rajoy and the other government leaders are not willing to risk an incident or scandal by trying to stop us, so we should definitely push this as hard as we can and then they'll be forced to let us go when/if the vote goes in our favor." So you can see the pros and cons of both taking a hard stance and ignoring it.

[Sun Fin]

That may be, but I'm not entirely convinced of that.

My mostly uninformed gut feeling is that the separatists were mostly serious about this from the get-go. No doubt they've been a bit emboldened by the whole thing (Now you can say, in true Monty Python and the Holy Grail style, "Come and see the violence inherent in the system! Help, help! I'm being repressed!"), but I am not convinced it would have just gone away if the government just sat back and did nothing.

I'm no expert on this, I just read a lot of BBC articles yesterday (not the most reliable news source in the world) so take what I say with a pinch of salt.

I have no doubt that the separatist are serious and would have kept fighting with or without violence. However a poll that was carried out by the Catalan government in July delivered the results that only 41% were in favour and 49% were opposed to independence. Based on that result they don't have the majority. On top of that the major anti-independence parties in Catalan refused to take part in the referendum. Essentially what I'm saying is that before the violence Catalonia weren't unified at all and didn't appear to be in favour of independence, regardless of what Mr Puigdemont says (reminding anyone else of Scotland at this point - Dongy?). Now though they are unified in their disgust and displeasure with the Spanish government. I suspect the police action have changed some peoples minds and maybe even given the Independence grouping a majority!

[Bush Leagues]

I have no doubt that the separatist are serious however a poll that was carried out by the Catalan government in July delivered the results that only 41% were in favour and 49% were opposed to independence. Based on that result they didn't have the majority, the major anti-independence parties in Catalan refused to take part in the referendum. Essentially what I'm saying is that before the violence Catalonia weren't unified at all, now though they are unified in their disgust and displeasure with the Spanish government. I suspect the police action have changed some peoples minds and maybe even given the Independence grouping a majority!

I remember reading similar polls, where it seemed like the "stay" vote had a slight majority heading into the election. And I agree with you that all this police action undoubtedly made the separatists more sympathetic in most peoples' eyes. Ultimately, we'll never know how it would've gone down otherwise.

[Dong Zhou]

Independence campaigners would have happily exploited winning the poll but it would have struggled for any real legitimacy but just continued the debate. Seems in this kind of situation, a government has three options, 1) engage and have major referendum with risk one would lose but a win does a lot to weaken independence arguments (even if they won't stop pushing for it), 2) just let it go through unofficially and ignore the result since it will lack credibility, let situation simmer on awhile longer

or 3) Become an international scandal, turn neutrals and pro-unification figures against you by violence against voters, creating real grievance and becoming the side that brutalizes them.

[Sun Fin]

No sign of the troubles calming yet. Head of the Catalonia police is in court today. Meanwhile both regional and national government are hardening their positions. I really have no idea whats going to happen next. I've not watched tons of BBC's news coverage this week but when I have seen it the issue seems to have been largely ignored. Is anyone else noticing similar?