UK General Election 2015

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UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:27 pm

With a week till polling day, I wanted to ask what people thought of it? Has it got any attention outside the UK? Who would you vote for? What do my fellow Brits here think of the camapign and the candidates?
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby DragonAtma » Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:51 pm

It gets some attention out here in the US, but my main complaint is that the two biggest parties are too far to the right for my taste, while the libdems are turning into Conservatives Jr. the way Labour did a couple decades ago. The rest are either local parties (SNP may take third but, much like Canada's Bloc Quebecois, they have zero chance of ever getting a majority) or small parties (the one closest to me -- the Green party -- is holding steady on fivethirtyeight.com with one seat out of 650 [Brighton Pavilion].
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri May 01, 2015 5:44 pm

Caroline Lucas should hold her seat for the Greens given her personal popularity and their numbers are up 5% or so percent since 2010, despite the struggles or Brighton council and party leader Natalie Bennett, they have advanced and become stronger. They will probably find it hard to get a second seat like Bristol West though and that will be a big disappointment
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue May 05, 2015 8:44 am

I think this will be a fascinating election, this is the other parties big chance to take a chunk of the seats, if they don't manage it then we will go back to being a 2 party state. Something that doesn't upset me.

I would describe myself as a swing voter and move between the two main parties as I feel they are best equipped. My opinions on Ed Miliband have been well expressed in the other thread so I think the best possible result is a continuation of the last 5 years, a Tory/Lib coalition. I think the Tory's think economic stability and confidence whilst the Lib Dem's have made sure that the poorest members of our country have had some protection like upping the wage you have to earn before you start paying tax!

As for the result I think the Conservatives will be the biggest party and if a Tory/Lib Coalition would form a majority then I think it will form. If not I think we'll end up with a so called 'progressive' alliance of Labour, SNP and the Lib Dems despite the Torys being the biggest party.

My biggest worry with the Tory's is on Europe. I fundamentally disagree with referendums, the reason we have a representative democracy is because in order to know about a policy you need to set aside time to study the facts and figures. I'm interested in politics and I don't find time to do this which is why I vote for a MP. Why then on such a big issue as Europe are we allowing our largely ignorant population to vote on it? It makes no sense.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed May 06, 2015 3:08 pm

The election night/results will be fascinating, the little human stories in the camapign, the televised debates have generally been good, watching the trends. Alas the major political parties have united in an attempted to otherwise make the election camapign as boring as possible. The long term philosophical issues all three major parties have to deal with in long term will be intresting to watch and we may see voting reform. The party leaders are right, and the public very much wrong, in there are big big choices to make in this election.

I think Tories will be largest party but will struggle, and probably fail, to build enough alliances to get their business through the house. If Ed Miliband is close behind and is clever on how he lays the legitimacy cards (also if Labour doesn't act like jerks to potential ally parties), he takes over. Potentially with a minority government as I can see Labour tribalism overriding common sense. Loses by, say, 20 seats or outmanoeuvred by Tories in PR and we could have a legitimacy crises. UKIP and Greens will struggle to get more seats then they currently have, I doubt their combined total will reach 10. SNP to get over 40, Lib Dems (whose differentiation strategy has been useless) probably over 30.

I'm also a swing voter but with left-leanings. There is stuff I love on both sides and both potential PM's and stuff that drives me up the wall but I think my natural leanings would prefer a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

Sun Fin wrote:My biggest worry with the Tory's is on Europe. I fundamentally disagree with referendums, the reason we have a representative democracy is because in order to know about a policy you need to set aside time to study the facts and figures. I'm interested in politics and I don't find time to do this which is why I vote for a MP. Why then on such a big issue as Europe are we allowing our largely ignorant population to vote on it? It makes no sense.


Westminster fears the populace lack the trust needed for them to go "sorry, keeping you in the EU as I believe that is best" and for some in Tory high-command, it has a lance that needs to be boiled. Tories have been torn apart by Europe for decades, UKIP is seen (probably incorrectly) as a sign of big anti-EU hostility and putting pressure on the right. Cameron sought to stop Europe plaguing him, didn't work unsurprisingly, but he hopes to kill the issue by winning the referendum.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu May 07, 2015 9:01 am

Dong Zhou wrote:
I'm also a swing voter but with left-leanings. There is stuff I love on both sides and both potential PM's and stuff that drives me up the wall but I think my natural leanings would prefer a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.


I actually wouldn't mind this, both parties are still pro-austerity and working together would hopefully tackle the deficit responsibly.

The reason I'm so anti-labour is who they will need to form a majority, I don't trust SNP on economics and I think with such a left-wing coalition would give the Ed's the excuse they want to abandon austerity and their promises on the economy.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby DragonAtma » Thu May 07, 2015 12:47 pm

Sun Fin wrote:I actually wouldn't mind this, both parties are still pro-austerity and working together would hopefully tackle the deficit responsibly.


There's one huge, huge, huge problem with that:
Austerity doesn't work.

http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/1 ... oesnt_work
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-com ... oesnt-work
http://ideas.time.com/2013/04/18/why-au ... rous-idea/
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinio ... -0053.html
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/2 ... esnt-work#
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... y-delusion
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu May 07, 2015 2:04 pm

Why the rest of he world should care http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32587879

Worship us dang you!

Sun Fin wrote:
The reason I'm so anti-labour is who they will need to form a majority, I don't trust SNP on economics and I think with such a left-wing coalition would give the Ed's the excuse they want to abandon austerity and their promises on the economy.


In fairness, the SNP's manifesto is an austerity one. They just haven't realized it yet :wink:

Won't happen. Tories (wrongly) have made it impossible for Labour to do any open deal with SNP, Labour may cobble up a Lib Dem-SDLP, even DUP, alliance or go it alone but they won't work with SNP in any formal way. Also SNP have crippled their ability to hold Labour to anything so Ed Miliband can just go ahead and dare SNP to vote him out of office.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Shen Ai » Fri May 08, 2015 5:21 am

I didn't expect the Conservatives to gain a majority. Cameron seems so disliked by the nation. I read articles and pundits saying he'd lose.

Guess they didn't see the SNP coming.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri May 08, 2015 3:40 pm

An incumbent PM to have increased his seats and share like that is incredible. Well done Cameron. I still suspect elements of his party won't see him as a winner or love him though.

Shen Ai wrote:I didn't expect the Conservatives to gain a majority. Cameron seems so disliked by the nation. I read articles and pundits saying he'd lose.

Guess they didn't see the SNP coming.


Neither did I.

Cameron is disliked by media as he either isn't a true Tory or he is a Tory and your a left-wing journalist so you have to hate him :wink: In terms of the public, he tended to have best leadership ratings. They might not fully trust him with NHS or to be fair but they trust him more on the economy and leadership.

Most pundits and polls saw SNP getting 45+ seats, it is less that and how badly Labour flopped in England and Wales that caught everyone by surprise. Also scale of Lib Dem collapse in England. As long as things remained tight, things were expected to sneak in Labour's favour but a narrow Tory win was also possible. Not Cameron turning it into a small majority.
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