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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2015 8:25 pm
by Antiochus
Dong Zhou wrote:So with polls predicting that SNP will win 35-45 seats in Scotland, pretty much killing Labour's stronghold, and pundits saying numbers would only be a little smaller then that, SNP could be the third biggest party in Westminster. This is playing into the election, Labour having to respond while Tories try to torch the union, warning that poor England would soon be controlled by evil Scotland as Salmond would dominate Labour behind the scenes.

So my question is that if SNP is third largest party, what should the big parties do? Seek to reach a deal as that is the democratic will of the people who handed them this? Refuse to work with any non-unionist party? If SNP upheld a government, how would England react to fate being decided by the votes of a few million Scots? If the parties reject the SNP, how would Scotland react? How will Scotland react to the Tories current election tactics?



Well...

You could look at what happened in Canada when a very similar situation occurred. Between 1993 and 2011, the Bloc was either the second or third most important political party in Ottawa.

There wasn't a single, unified reaction from the federalist forces, but I think the most effective one was to treat it as a regular party when it came the majority of issues not involving separation. To antagonize them too much, to refuse to see them as a legitimate force would have basically played in the Bloc's hand, especially since they had a clear electoral legitimacy. I would never pretend that it was an easy fit, but then again, it was not especially more complicated than having to share a political system with people having radically different values on all the other issues.

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2015 2:50 pm
by Dong Zhou
Could you please tell the Tories that? :wink:

I agree that seems the best approach is to just accept the will of the Scottish voters and the boundary system, get on with it. I just fear the fires have been stoked up too much already

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:39 am
by Sun Fin
Labour-Tory coalition to fight the great evils of UKIP and SNP or the fight against Westminster outsiders!

Remember You heard it here first guys :wink:

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:44 pm
by Dong Zhou
Sturgeon to pass bill for referendum before end of year and aiming for round of two before end of Hollyrood session (ie before May 2021)

SNP will need to secure economic arguments better then they did last time (though they have done work on this) but union will need to freshen up their ideas and work out how they deal with the Brexit Scotland problem since the EU card has now switched to the independence camapign.

Edit: Sturgeon has inserted the caveat only if Brexit happens and that she is open other ways to protect Scotland from Brexit can't be found

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:50 pm
by Dong Zhou
Today's news has been bad (Boris is trying to suspend parliament for five weeks) but I had been expecting a version of it. What has hit is that Ruth Davidson (bar a meteorite strike) is going to resign tomorrow.

The union has been slipping away for a variety of reasons since referendum but Davidson going makes it feel real, that "yep, the union is officially gone." She has been Scotland's best champion of the union among existing politicians with her modernization, her (relative) success, her cut through, I'm not sure who can pick up the slack. Scottish Labour are almost an irrelevance, Scottish Tories may not be the same without Davidson and I'm not seeing champions (on this issue) from Westminster Tory and Labour frontbenches who can woo the Scots.

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:02 am
by Sun Fin
It is not a good sign. I did see a statistic from just after the referendum saying something along the lines that 40% of those who supported Scottish independence also supported Brexit. Maybe that has changed, but I can definitely still imagine a kick back against Sturgeon over how she handled Brexit from her constituency.

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:44 am
by Dong Zhou
Unlike English Brexiteers and the DUP, SNP Brexiteers seem to be able to put priorities in order. They may not like Sturgeon being pro-Remain but they can stomach it (they more seem annoyed at her pacing) as they believe she will get independence and fighting her on Brexit risks that. After that is achieved, then the EU or no fighting can begin I imagine

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:12 pm
by Sun Fin
I guess they hope that Johnson delivers Brexit and Sturgeon delivers Scottish independence, then they only need to fight her attempts to rejoin the EU later. Fighting to prevent something is ultimately easier than attempting to leave a union I suspect.

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:53 am
by Dong Zhou
Sun Fin wrote:I guess they hope that Johnson delivers Brexit and Sturgeon delivers Scottish independence, then they only need to fight her attempts to rejoin the EU later. Fighting to prevent something is ultimately easier than attempting to leave a union I suspect.


Yes, generally the status quo is seen as easier to defend as people can be scared of change. Granted, Scotland will remember being in EU so that may not quite work here

Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postPosted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:53 pm
by Sun Fin
And the reason lots of people will have changed their minds on independence is because they still want to belong to the EU