Scotland Indepdence debate

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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:08 pm

Either of Boydie or DZ planning on doing an all nighter watching results come in?
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Boydie » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:40 pm

Sun Fin wrote:Either of Boydie or DZ planning on doing an all nighter watching results come in?


I'm far to nervous to do that... I've been staring at the clock all day. :lol: I think I might just go to bed with a few sleeping pills and find out in the morning. My mate has also invited me around to his for a few drinks and watch the results come in, a drink might loosen me up. So I'm unsure what I'm doing.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:50 pm

I believe we will find out the result between 6am and 7:30 am tomorrow morning so I'll have a relaxing evening and wait to find out what happens in the morning. My usual practise for these kind of things

Boydie wrote:Voted a few hours ago, now the long wait begins.

Image


Nice.

Today has felt like, metaphorically, the calm before a major storm is about to hit. We can't do anything other then keep busy, cross our fingers and wait.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby DragonAtma » Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:57 am

First results are in; Clackmannanshire gives 19,036 NO votes and 16,350 YES votes. Thirty-one councils left.

Live map, if anyone cares: http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results (keep in mind that there''s only 32 coiuncil, and it looks like they'll only be reported when all are counted for the council)

9:58 PM EST UPDATE: Three councils (Clackmannanshire, Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands) reported so far; there are 38,991 NO votes and 26,902 YES votes. Do keep in mind that they're three of the four smallest councils, so it's far from a guarantee for "No", especially since most councils have more votes than those three combined.

11:08 PM EST UPDATE: We're up to 7 of 32 councils; Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, Dundee, Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire are the new ones. 178,811 NO votes, 172,426 YES votes.
...make that 9 councils; Midlothian and West Dunbartonshire reported. 241,559 NO votes, 232,516 YES votes.

12:03 AM EST UPDATE: 24 of 32 councils have reported; there are 1,305,388 NO votes and 1,102,788 votes. For yes to win, over 57% of the remaining votes would have to be Yes votes.

12:34 AM EST UPDATE: 26 of 32 councils reported; there are 1,305,388 NO voters and 1,102,788 YES votes. BBC called the election in favor of No; since the only way for Yes to win would be to average 58% of the remaining six councils (even though NONE of the twenty-six councils favored Yes that much), I'm calling the election in favor of No as well.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Ranbir » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:18 am

Union stays. I win.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Sun Fin » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:40 am

I moved my bedding downstairs and dozed on the sofa as it came in. I managed to be awake for most of the major moments though, the results of the first constituency and the moment when Yes conceded the vote! Very pleased the Union is still together I just hope Westminster keep their word and deliver the devolution they offered.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby DragonAtma » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:33 am

Final results, with all 32 councils counted:
NO: 2,001,926 (55.30%)
YES: 1,617,989 (44.70%)

Yes won 4 councils (Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire), while No won the other 28 councils. Inverclyde was definitely the closest council -- No only won by 86 votes.

As for devolution, the vote (and polls before it) were close enough that I imagine they'll go through with it. After all, the Quebec referendum of 1980 wasn't as close (59.56%-40.44%), yet it led to the Canada Act 1982.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:23 pm

The Union has held by 55% to 45% so reasonably comfortably in the end with SNP conceding quite early with Fife clinching it. Turn out of 84.48% which was expected but leaves quite a few who decided not to vote in the biggest decision in 300 years, completely abdicating any sense of responsibility to their society. Yes only won in four areas (Dundee with 57%, Glasgow 53, North Lankashire 51%, West Dunbartonshire 54%) and No won some big cities like Aberdeen and the capital Edinburgh with 60+% in ten areas. I know the vote doesn't work like that but it paints a nice picture

Why did union hold? Bar one rogue poll (which all pollsters have rallied around Youguv and said could have happened to anyone), the Yes camapign always had the lead. The SNP never quite had enough answers to major questions like currency, for a lot of people it would seem independence was too big a risk to their wallets (and the majority always felt it was more of a risk then staying in union), there may well have been quiet a few quiet no's that just turned out and there may have been a backlash against the feeling of Yes bullying. The last week with big businesses including reputable ones (kind of hard to bash John Lewis) giving warnings, the unleashing of "Flash" Gordon Brown who fixed some of the Yes flaws just in time and, I suspect, the bullying feel about some in Yes went against Yes in the last week when they really really needed it to maintain momentum in their favour.

What it means for:

Scotland: Salmond has appealed for everyone to follow the democratic will of the people and the unionists to make good their promise on devolved powers. Scotland will not get another referendum for 15 years bar an EU pull out, the rest of the UK and international world wouldn't buy it and nor would the Scots welcome it I expect. They will get more powers and quite possibly unionist parties will strengthen their Scottish branches but the pace and strength of this will depend on events elsewhere in UK. Barnett formula may well be touched, some powers unexpected may arrive and some promised may not happen but Scotland will get more powers.

Scotland must now try to rebuild the peace within itself after a divisive camapign. Salmond has unleashed the hopes of those who have been left behind, how will they react now their hopes are dashed? More shockingly, the Yes camapign did nothing to stop cyber-nats and bullies who may seek retribution from the 2 million plus of traitors in Scotland who voted for the union. Scotland will also have to cope with the ill-feeling built it up towards it by rest of UK, it will have to rebuild relations and will be hard to play the "it's all England's fault" card (though might not stop ex-pats saying how awesome Scotland is and how the rest of us are inferior :wink: ) when they voted in considerable numbers in common bond with England.

Can they also keep the level of interest up to any degree or will people slink away? Can the incredible ground camapign be used to help keep politics alive in Scotland and set an example to the main parties?

SNP: Sturgeon perhaps spoke for a lot of the SNP
"real sense of disappointment that we have fallen narrowly short of securing a 'Yes' vote". "a deep personal and political disappointment" but said "the country has been changed forever".
This will hurt a lot, this was SNP's reason for being, their big shot and they believed they could win in the last week, they threw everything they had, organized the better camapign by all accounts and yet they lost. They will go and lick their wounds then have to think of the future

SNP will not be able to offer a referendum for awhile and must ensure it can continue to sell itself as more then a nationalist party but I think they can manage that. They will face stronger opposition in Hollyrood and by Salmond's NHS pitch, even stronger then they would have expected, but SNP will believe they can adjust. They are a governing party and they will have reason to believe they can win the next election, they have a lot of work on other fronts to do. They also have a chance to make this devo count, to get Scotland more powers and use the years ahead to build the case of independence, to show glimpses of what might be. They must not get bitter (like this self-righteous whine) or dissolve into infighting or the SNP will collapse, their cause be harmed and nastiness by associated with the party.

For Salmond, this is the beginning of the end of an incredible career and arguably the greatest current political leader in the UK. The man who had broken the system and kept defying the odds has found one mountain too high to climb and will not get another shot, it may define how he is remembered. When the Yes camapign were struggling, he was blamed for being someone who divided people and for not being radical enough, those accusations may return. Having the dream destroyed may also simply tire Salmond, he may not wish to continue on or if he does, he could be a diminished figure.

Sturgeon is the heir apparent and the one that had to face the media after the defeat, she is well regarded but I wonder, will she be too associated with the defeat? Will it cast a shadow over her when Salmond goes and the SNP decide their leader?

Rest of UK: Now begins the hard part. Several Tories have made clear they aren't that happy with devolution plans, which still need to be agreed on by main parties anyway, and there might be bitterness in England. Wales is calling for more powers, eyes on N.Ireland though the hopes it will unite with Republic of Ireland have perhaps dimmed with the Scotland result. England... it is entirely possible that with a bit of delay, the party leaders can kill the anger and dodge major constitutional reform as public can be fickle and easily distracted. It is also possible that public anger and a large enough core of MP's could force the next 5 years to be the years of major constitutional reform, changing so much about the way we and the UK are governed. It is an unsexy subject but if they can't boot it into the long grass, it will take up a lot of the party leaders time.

Unionist have 15+ years to ensure Scotland doesn't attempt to leave again, to ensure the issues raised by Scotland before they voted no aren't as strong next time.

UK leaders/Better Together big guns: The New Years Honour's list should be intresting as the Queen may use her small section to reward those that she feels saved the union. For the party leaders, this result means their survival is secured though Cameron will be damaged after getting such flak last week for his tactical errors. There will be no coup against him but it won't reinforce the idea of him as a winner and may well increase the dislike in the party. Ed Miliband also won't be in trouble but party mood will have slumped at how poor the party machine is in Scotland, how Miliband failed to cut through to a Labour heartland. Labour has a heck of lot of work to do to rebuild the machine in Scotland, to work out the balance between MP's and MSP's in terms of who goes where but Labour can be slow on these matters and may kick into long grass.

Accusations Douglas Alexander is a useless man to run a camapign will increase but Miliband will probably stick with him. Jim Murphy might get credit for his 100 speeches in 100 days and get him more profile since his (harsh) demotion, the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson has got praised for way she has handled the referendum and shown more awareness then Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont.

I thought Darling would be damaged, he would get the formal thanks but the calls for him to be Shadow Chancellor had gone. Failure to sell the positive side and his poor second debate performance while undermined badly by Labour's failure to realize what they said could be used in Scotland (hello Burnham)+Westminster infighting has seen him take a fair deal of flak in last few months, most of it rather harsh. He failed to take on the passion side of things but I do think he was held back by Westminster who constantly undermined him and by inheriting a worse machine. However he does seem to be getting praise in the after-math for his cool head under pressure, kept going as things fell apart behind him, his economic arguments that he generally sold well and good organization. Will be intresting to see where that goes in a few days

Gordon Brown is the one (bar perhaps Davidson) figure whose reputation has clearly been enhanced by all this. Kept on the sidelines for the most part, delivering the odd message, as Better Together felt he would be too difficult for use (rivalries with others, his own nature) but his interventions in the last week were considered vital to halting the Yes camapigns momentum. He seized control and delivered a great rallying speech. This may cause reassessment from even his critics and may help history judge him kinder then those in his own time.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby DragonAtma » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:20 pm

Also, the news kept reporting maniacally that there may have been up to ten fraudulent votes. They never seem to point out that even if they were all fraudulent, it's only 0.0026% of the votes needed to change the result.
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Re: Scotland Indepdence debate

Unread postby WeiWenDi » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:31 am

I think the best that can come out of this vote is that the national government will honour the concessions they offered to counter some of the Yes campaign's demands; and that as a whole the government will tack in a more leftward and Eurosceptic direction. Maybe I come off a bit like Sima Yi here, since I have always been in favour of the Union and yet think that there is a good deal of proper feeling, not to the Yes campaign itself but to the general sentiments of the Scottish populace it tapped into. Scotland apparently demands, and northern England in particular needs, a government with a much more social-democratic flavour and a firmer commitment to a genuine safety net for the economically-stressed people who live in such areas.

Interesting that No won so strongly in Aberdeen and Edinburgh - though probably not surprising. Still, that Yes won in Glasgow shows that the Yes campaign was not simply carried by the victims of Thatcherism. Indeed, the out-and-out poorest regions of Scotland (particularly the Mairches, East Lothian, Stirling, Argyll and Bute) showed particularly strong No votes, and I truly don't think this was for want of information or fear of Westminster's retribution.
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