2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

[WeiWenDi]

Just thought we ought to have one of these threads, for the inevitable coming debacle (pardon my cynicism).

To get things started... personally, I'm already planning to write-in Kucinich / Buchanan 2016 (or vice-versa), unless some miracle happens in the Democratic primary which defeats Hillary as the frontrunner and replaces her with somebody like Kucinich, who has a solidly anti-war record.

[Antiochus]

Still really early for one of those...

I love it!

Honestly, for now, what strikes me is that Hilary Clinton could be making the same mistake as in 2007-2008, as in she seems to be building up a political machine rather than a political message. While she can still turn this around, she can still get outflanked by a charismatic democratic candidate with a stronger grip on a theme.

On the conservative side, its still a complete melee. For know, what scares me is inability of the party to rein in its political base toward the center. Its an old song, I know, but it becomes dire as the latino vote takes importance in the south. On the long run, it might threaten the GOP's dominance in Arizona and Texas, two states that are vital to its electoral prospects.

Its an especially sad thing for conservatives, since the latino electorate could be won over. Catholic and culturally conservative, many latino voters are not as impermeable to republican ideas as one would think. But the inability of the GOP base to moderate its positions on immigration and a few other social issues ensures that the democratic lead with this (growing) electorate grows.

[dan99990]

I was waiting for someone to start this thread. I'm not prepared to make any predictions, but I must say that part of me is looking forward to the impending culture wars.

[WeiWenDi]

Still really early for one of those...

I love it!

Honestly, for now, what strikes me is that Hilary Clinton could be making the same mistake as in 2007-2008, as in she seems to be building up a political machine rather than a political message. While she can still turn this around, she can still get outflanked by a charismatic democratic candidate with a stronger grip on a theme.

On the conservative side, its still a complete melee. For know, what scares me is inability of the party to rein in its political base toward the center. Its an old song, I know, but it becomes dire as the latino vote takes importance in the south. On the long run, it might threaten the GOP's dominance in Arizona and Texas, two states that are vital to its electoral prospects.

Its an especially sad thing for conservatives, since the latino electorate could be won over. Catholic and culturally conservative, many latino voters are not as impermeable to republican ideas as one would think. But the inability of the GOP base to moderate its positions on immigration and a few other social issues ensures that the democratic lead with this (growing) electorate grows.

Antiochus, I think this is pretty much right.

The problem is that Latin@s tend to be economically-populist and socially-conservative (in a manner very close to my own views), and don't really fit into either of the holes of our two-party system. Until now the Democrats could count on them seeing the sense in economic principles which directly benefitted them and their families, but as Hispanic voters grow in number and in political legitimacy, I think you're likely to find either that the Republicans do an about-turn on their post-Tea Party libertarian drift, or that certain Democratic legislators will begin doing more than talking the pro-life talk.

We'll see where it goes. On the other hand, it's just as likely that the children of Latin@ immigrants are likely to assimilate to America's political pathologies...

I was waiting for someone to start this thread. I'm not prepared to make any predictions, but I must say that part of me is looking forward to the impending culture wars.

I'd like to say that the 'culture wars' are soooooo 1992, but really I'd be lying.

I think you're likely to see culture-war issues integrating with more bread-and-butter policy-tweaking in some counterintuitive ways, but I've been wrong about this sort of thing before. And disappointed.

[Jordan]

For me, no matter who wins, I lose. So I probably won't vote. Again.

[WeiWenDi]

Dynasty Warriors '16.

I'm not a fan of the Founding Fathers to say the least (with the possible exception of John Adams, as many here are well aware), but I can respect the argument Sabato puts forth here. I'd actually rather have a real monarchy rather than the political oligarchy / faux-meritocracy we now have.

[DreamGoddessLindsey]

I just hope someone that's socially progressive gets the White House. As a lesbian, my rights are very important to me. I would never vote Republican ever again in a million years.

[Dong Zhou]

I would never vote Republican ever again in a million years.

Even though, during your life time, the Republicans are likely to evolve (or else die), going through different philosophies and leaders?

[DreamGoddessLindsey]

I doubt they'll get progressive in my life time. I'm already 33. They just took up the new mantle with the Tea Party, and that was only a huge step backward. I don't like how they deal with economics or social issues. Heck, they just stopped the federal minimum wage increase, despite the fact that most jobs don't pay a living wage. I despise almost everything they stand for.

[Dong Zhou]

In your 33 years, surely you have seen major changes, including major philosophical changes within a party? I'm a few years younger then you but I have seen great changes in last five years, let alone my entire life. So unless your going to die in a a few years, who knows what kind of Republican party will emerge.

It is hard to tell how much the Tea Party is 1) the tendency for a recently trounced party to turn inwards 2) the rise of the anti-government right which has hit Europe as well. If the Republicans end up as a Tea Party then I predict they will dwindle and die with a new right-wing party to replace them. Or they will, as it has done before, adapt and modernisers win that battle to lead them into a new era.

I can understand hating the current Republican party but why should the Republicans of 2030 or 2040 be blamed for the Republicans of 2014?