Dong Zhou wrote:I get what your saying and agree with pretty much all of it but if Democrats want to get back in power anytime soon, they need to avoid the trap the left here can sometime fall into and they seem to be doing with Corbyn. The left can have a bit of a habit of going "oh yes, we know what the working people want", congratulating themselves on how in touch they are through their rallies and social media presence and fail to notice the working class don't actually support what they are saying. I'm not saying Sanders can't work, as I understand it he had working class support but struggled with BME's?, but he would have to go down a different route to Corbyn who is failing to build working class support for various reasons.
Here's the thing.
I was born in Wisconsin, and I've lived for significant stretches of time in industrial Rust Belt towns in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The people in these towns, even the working-class white people that everyone's talking about now, are not racists. They turned out in droves for Obama in 2008 and 2012, whereas this year, in increasing numbers, they either stayed home or voted Trump.
Sanders appealed to folks in these states in a way Clinton never could, and it has nothing to do with the reasons you're giving. He was, even more so than Trump
, willing to attack the shibboleths of the academic 'left', such as: free trade is never bad
, unions are outmoded and ineffective
, a rising tide lifts all boats
, and American military power has a responsibility to defend people abroad even when we aren't under attack
. Unlike the academic 'left' and the broad technocratic-Wall Street centre; Sanders talked their language
and he didn't talk down to them
. Clinton failed miserably
on all of the above counts. She promised not
to help them get their jobs and dignity back, and she did
promise to send their sons off to die in Syria against Assad (and possibly Putin).
and when I said I agreed with what your saying bar Corbyn (choosing him for appeal to working class is like saying one should appeal to the religious by making Richard Dawkins your leader) you thought was that I disagreed with most then that? I agree with the large majority of your assessment and where the left has failed
I am not qualified in US politics to know whether Sanders would or wouldn't work, I heard he was good with the working class, abysmal with BME's. I would be wary of the counter-factual (right word?) I have seen from some (not you but some) where not so much "you guys lost so let us have a go ans here's why it could work" but "you guys lost and we would have automatically won", it's a dangerous trap. Sanders or an appropriate successor can use Clinton's failings to earn a chance but the left needs to be wary of "if we had gone done this route, we would have won.", it leads to not fixing the wider problems.
I may not agree with Sanders policies but I know that the stances I take are electorally dead for at least a decade now. It sucks but we deserve it as a faction of politics, too much up our own backsides and dismissing with shrill voice anyone who disagreed as racist or some evil mc evil pants among many other failings. I also think we will see gay marriage cemented but social liberalism start to decline as well.
Corbyn does have something of a 'street-preacher' problem, I sometimes feel, but he is likewise bringing up issues that directly appeal to Labour's forgotten northerners and industrial labour class. The question now is, will the Labour parliamentarians listen to his message, and will Corbyn be able to find a successor who marries working-class concerns to a solidly anti-interventionist platform?
Corbyn's recent displays of competence and the heavy defeat does seem to have brought MP's more onside, I think he will (with some wobbles along the way) get to the election. The chances of a Corbynite successor depends very much on the results of said election and what state the factions are in.
Corbyn does have some stuff that should, in theory, appeal to the working class yet he doesn't. Corbyn appeals very strongly to those who vote Green, the Ken Loach's, those that vote for TUSC party and so on. Not the many millions more who vote UKIP or identify with UKIP even if thy would never vote for them or swing voters. Is it the message or the messenger? Probably a bit of both
Message: Over here, the left has a problem in terms of their policies don't just have to be popular but convince people they are fiscally responsible. That doesn't seem a problem in the US though. Where US might want to watch is the failure of Labour to build popular policies into a winning package, a narrative that cuts through. Corbyn is the latest to struggle with that. Where there is also issues is that economics from Labour has been overshadowed by some of the other things Corbyn and his faction love. Trident for example. A lot of Labour's wider package is beloved of the Greens and so on but to the working class is either something they just don't care about, don't think about it day day to but uneasy at his breaking the consensus on or Corbyn's passionate stance on certain issues (welfare, immigration) are so far away from them that he might as well be from Mars. I may personally agree with some of Corbyn's stances and if I was Labour leader I would be advancing stuff that would be unpopular with the population but I recognize that.
Messenger: When people make up their minds within first 6 months, that awful start didn't help but there is something deeper. Corbyn is viewed as a political outsider, as a nice guy but he is also seen as very much of London lefties. He fits a certain stereotype: the London metropolitan leftie, reads guardian, wears sandals, has beard, eats muesli (no idea if he does but the stereotype is), probably a vegetarian, goes on marches and supports all sorts of "right on" causes. Loves to talk about the working man but has as much in common with the working class as a man from Mars (or myself
). People think Corbyn is a nice chap but his values are not there's, that he is seen as part of the group that looks down on them. Failing to sing the anthem may be an unfair story but it has killed him with the working class becuase he fits into the feeling that he doesn't get their patriotism, their values, their concerns.
I guess the equivalent would be selecting a leftie from New York? Lessons from Corbyn's would probably be don't play into a negative stereotype (like don't pick from New York or Washington), focus on economy rather then go into area's the working class are not going to like you for, work out quickly where to compromise with the voters, be wary of the hardcore backers for they can mislead or get you into trouble, understand working class version of patriotism still has a strong impact.
Gray Riders wrote:From what I could find out it has something to do with anti-poaching laws and being a Strict Liability offence (meaning they don't need to prove mens rea).
There's an exception for Native Americans due to religious reasons, however.
Your banned from hunting swans over here due to being Queen's property I believe. Don't know when anyone was last prosecuted for it though
That's the thing. Even though I support election reform I never believed Trudeau would actually do it (the only question for me was whether he'd try and fail or "change his mind" after swinging some traditional NDP votes for that election), so I'm not angry so much as unhappily vindicated.
but it fuels the discontent/frustration and I don't blame you for that
In some ways my main concern about Trump's election isn't what he'll do--people were claiming that Bush's second term was inevitably going to cause the apocalypse, and again when Obama was elected--but rather it seems like it could be the tipping point for the ugly divide building in the US for so long. Look at all the "white people did this they need to die" rhetoric flying around the internet, or the reports of hate crimes increasing after Trump won.
If it helps, we are having that here. We call it Brexit! It is a big concern of mine but I think it is like you say a tipping point of something that has been building a long time. The bubbling anger, the political bigotry, the widening gap between city and rural (to overly simplify)
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”