2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:13 pm

Bush Leagues wrote:Yeah, I can offer a few words. I live in Louisiana, which is traditionally very hard to the right - in 2008, for instance, McCain/Palin won 66% of the vote here. This election cycle, I don't think I've seen even one sign or bumper sticker supporting Hillary Clinton; to be fair, I've only seen a few for Trump.

I think you're overstating the economic situation playing into it - at least here in (south) Louisiana, except for the oil fields being on hiatus, effectively, the economy has been fairly good. I understand his draw on some level for the common-man Republican.

...

I've been trying for a few minutes to put together a coherent line of logic here to explain why I think Trump has all this appeal, but I can't seem to do it for some reason. Part of it is probably just not having paid too much attention to the election, but I also can't seem to put it in words without sounding dumb right now. I'll post again if I manage to get my brain working again. :p

Thanks for posting. I'm trying to understand the situation in the US that's led to so many people supporting Trump because I refuse for one minute to buy into the "they're all racist" argument plenty of people are trying to sell.
We had an election last year in Canada, but it didn't feel nearly this charged--just a traditionally Left country that had turned Right for a few years snapping back to status quo. Plenty of the usual fear raking and mud-slinging, but nobody claiming armageddon was going to happen if either side won.

It's difficult for me to know exactly how things are going in rural USA since I live in another country in a major city (out in the suburbs, though). I've read articles about small towns going through hardship because of major industries shutting down due to labor being outsourced or coal mines being shut down, usually linking these hardships to Trump's rise--the common argument is that people feel the Democrat party only cares about the cities, and that the traditional Republican candidates have let them down. It's always more complicated than that but public perception decides elections more than reality.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Bush Leagues » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:54 am

Gray Riders wrote:Thanks for posting. I'm trying to understand the situation in the US that's led to so many people supporting Trump because I refuse for one minute to buy into the "they're all racist" argument plenty of people are trying to sell.


Good; you shouldn't. Of course a few are racist or what-have-you, but it's really the vast minority. And frankly, to me there are just as many people on the left with intolerance towards certain groups that are just as ignorant and misguided as anything you see on the right. Or rather, the more extreme individuals in those groups. I don't think either have much sway.

Gray Riders wrote:We had an election last year in Canada, but it didn't feel nearly this charged--just a traditionally Left country that had turned Right for a few years snapping back to status quo. Plenty of the usual fear raking and mud-slinging, but nobody claiming armageddon was going to happen if either side won.


Uh, I don't particularly think this election is anything special, outside of each election being special in its own way; it's just that having people like Clinton and Trump running makes this one kind of unique. I don't think the doomsaying is particularly bad, but again, I haven't been paying too much attention. For me personally, electing either will feel like a disaster.

I can't comment too much on your last paragraph there - I feel quite isolated from reality, if that makes any sense. It's like...in 2008, I had a strong sense that Obama was going to win. It just seemed like the obvious conclusion from everything that was going on. In 2012, I felt Romney had a strong showing, but wasn't surprised or shocked that he eventually lost. This time, I feel like I have no idea what's real or fake; what's trustworthy and what's not; what the majority of people actually feel about the current situation and each candidate. I can't even figure it out myself, much less offer any kind of insight into others.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby DragonAtma » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:56 am

Zyzyfer wrote:All it would really take at this point to have a truly competitive and respectable election is to just get someone on board on the Republican side who doesn't end up making a gaffe reel by the end of the affair. First it's Palin, then Romney (I'll never live that 47% comment down), then the primary antics with folks like Carson and so forth, and now The Big Bad hisself, Trumparoo.


That's the thing -- most of the reasonable republicans have been driven out of the parety, and the remaining ones would get crushed in the primary.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:46 pm

Never believe the "they are all racist" or the opposite where a nation's people get praised, that they are all wise and brave, non xenophobic and so on.

From the outside, it does feel like a lot of what drives Trump is the same that drove Brexit. People feeling economy hasn't worked for them, that they or their parents once had safe jobs for life with decent wages, one could plan the future and get promoted but industries have left and not been replaced for them, work is more insecure, pay feels less, planning is more difficult. The American dream or the post-war promise feels dead for them or their children.

They feel society that once worked for them is changing in a way they don't like. They feel they can't say what they want, the sports they once loved taken out of their price range or pushed to margins, they are perhaps no longer head of the family/the respectable figures of the town, they aren't the provider of the family, they feel like their promotions/jobs are being taken up by others in some vague way, they feel that those with power don't share the same values and indeed sneer at them (rednecks for example). They feel the world is changing in terms of values, migration, economy and they don't like it.

Politics of course was going to take a hit. We have our own version of "Washington" here. The feeling they got too close to the powerful, failed to protect them, fail to understand, that they become part of a liberal mindset as soon as they get to the political capital. However the political press and press have brought this on themselves: years and years of declaring the other side is not misguided but pure evil, that the other side is going to destroy the county or some beloved thing, has evil intent. The GOP have whipped up anger for some time but then wandered off to the centre, at some point people were going to go for the real thing. The US attack ads questioning war records and so on. Meanwhile the press will go big on telling people that the politicians are lazy, corrupt, out of touch, everything negative that people believe about the political class and fan the discontent rather then address the concerns.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Ranbir » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:42 pm

I'm stunned that there is nothing that Trump can't do to make a certain base lose their support. It's terrifying that there are SO MANY OF THEM.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Bush Leagues » Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:15 am

Ranbir wrote:I'm stunned that there is nothing that Trump can't do to make a certain base lose their support. It's terrifying that there are SO MANY OF THEM.


I've felt the same about both parties for a while now.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby DragonAtma » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:22 pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpa ... egathread/

That's why trump is such a menace to society. No matter how you feel about Hillary, trump is worse -- and if you don't believe me, that has links to all the reasons why trump would be a disaster, complete with dozens of professional sources.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:22 am

Feels like a year of western democracies anger finally bursting through and risking immense damage to their countries and to everyone in the way they lashed out. Democrats and Republicans need a long hard think about all this but in the immediate term, we must now hope Trump's damage to US and the world is limited. If Brexit is any guide, the hate/anger will not leave the winners, they will still see the world against them, attack the judiciary, some will demand anyone non-white/seems like non-native be expelled becuase they won.

My congratulations to genuine Trumpites who put all their efforts in and have been rewarded, my commiserations to the losing candidates at all levels, their staff and workers whose efforts were for naught, the legal system and deep commiserations to minorities of any kind and females.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:58 pm

I was definitely not expecting this result.

I wonder how many of the people who threatened to move to Canada actually will?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby DragonAtma » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:14 pm

Enough to knock the Canadian immigration site offline.

No, seriously.
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