2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:01 pm

WeiWenDi wrote:Dong Zhou, your scenario 1) is the scariest to me, but thankfully unlikely, particularly when compared with 2). Trump is a master of playing to whatever audience he's in front of, to the point of flat contradicting himself. My biggest worry is simply that he's the typical movement conservative writ large; as in - he's willing to toss out red meat by the truckload for the benefit of his most rabid supporters, but once he's in office he's going to govern like the opportunistic centrist plutocrat that he not-so-secretly is.


I do wonder what happens to Trump supporters if it is 1 and they feel so very very conned. I do agree the Republicans by whipping up anger then swinging centre have brought this on themselves

Being realistic now, Clinton's domestic agenda is going to meet with massive roadblocks, same as Obama's. Except, she's probably more willing to use the offices of the executive branch to crack down on localised religious opposition to a reproductive healthcare-driven and LGBTQ-identitarian agenda than Obama was. I honestly don't think she's going to make much headway, and particularly not on any domestic reforms I personally would care about (like universal healthcare, nationalising rail, imposing a financial transactions tax).


Fair enough but if Obama got healthcare through, she might get something through and weaker then she hopes but something. Doubt it will be gun control

On foreign policy, again, Clinton truly scares the bejeezus out of me. Her unbridled, bloodthirsty hawkishness has already gotten us into two needless wars; I think we can probably expect two more in the Middle East by the end of her first term, and World War III with Russia and China if (God forbid) she gets a second.


I'm less worried by a Clinton inspired world war. I think more cold Cold War 2 with lots of proxies is worst case. Where world 3 is more likely is EU vs Russia or China vs Asia and US getting dragged in

There's also an option 4), which you've overlooked: Clinton wins, but only by a very narrow margin, getting only, say, 271 or 272 electoral votes. The Sturmabtrumpung will say (perhaps with some justification) that the result was rigged, and they'll refuse to accept the outcome. And Trump will egg them on all the while, because he can't stand being seen as a 'loser'. We may run the risk of loosely or semi-organised armed insurrections in places where Clinton hasn't held strong sway.


Yes, becuase I want to sleep before the US elections :wink: Yes, I can see that people decry the election result and while there is always some, this time it will be a lot more and it may lead to something deeply unpleasant
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Shikanosuke » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:11 am

I'd like to believe there's a fifth option, where Clinton wins, and its business as usual.

WeiWenDi wrote:
Being realistic now, Clinton's domestic agenda is going to meet with massive roadblocks, same as Obama's. Except, she's probably more willing to use the offices of the executive branch to crack down on localised religious opposition to a reproductive healthcare-driven and LGBTQ-identitarian agenda than Obama was. I honestly don't think she's going to make much headway, and particularly not on any domestic reforms I personally would care about (like universal healthcare, nationalising rail, imposing a financial transactions tax).


She likely is, unless we see republican reversals in congress.

On foreign policy, again, Clinton truly scares the bejeezus out of me. Her unbridled, bloodthirsty hawkishness has already gotten us into two needless wars; I think we can probably expect two more in the Middle East by the end of her first term, and World War III with Russia and China if (God forbid) she gets a second.


Is that perchance an exaggerated concern? I'm not sure so much can really be laid at her feet, or her feet alone.

There's also an option 4), which you've overlooked: Clinton wins, but only by a very narrow margin, getting only, say, 271 or 272 electoral votes. The Sturmabtrumpung will say (perhaps with some justification) that the result was rigged, and they'll refuse to accept the outcome. And Trump will egg them on all the while, because he can't stand being seen as a 'loser'. We may run the risk of loosely or semi-organised armed insurrections in places where Clinton hasn't held strong sway.


Is this really an option to you? Referring back to my option 5, I'd like to believe blow-hards who feel disenfranchised will not resort to armed insurrections.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby WeiWenDi » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:23 pm

Shikanosuke wrote:I'd like to believe there's a fifth option, where Clinton wins, and its business as usual.


That seems similar to Dong Zhou's option 3, honestly. Though I guess it depends on what you mean by 'business as usual'.

Shikanosuke wrote:Is that perchance an exaggerated concern? I'm not sure so much can really be laid at her feet, or her feet alone.


The genocide against blacks that followed Gadhafi's overthrow in Libya can be laid mostly at Clinton's feet, given that she advocated for it and was largely responsible for executing America's role in it. She's taken a hard line on Syria which will prolong the already brutal conflict and provide comfort to radical Sunni terrorism and its supporters. She's still in favour of NATO enlargement in Eastern Europe, which strikes me as a recipe for a geopolitical disaster, in the form of a potentially-nuclear conflict with Russia. She's an unconditional supporter of Abe's Japan against China; also the Saudis against Yemen and the Israelis against - well, everybody else. She doesn't acclimate her views to the presence of new conditions but instead evaluates everything through the lenses of past alliances. That might be favourable to the 'allies', but it's not smart.

Shikanosuke wrote:Is this really an option to you? Referring back to my option 5, I'd like to believe blow-hards who feel disenfranchised will not resort to armed insurrections.


It's not an option I endorse by any stretch of the imagination, if that's what you're asking. You know me better than that.

But having seen some of the rhetoric coming from Trump and his supporters, I feel like it's an option many of them are currently considering, and I don't like it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby WeiWenDi » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:23 pm

Shikanosuke wrote:I'd like to believe there's a fifth option, where Clinton wins, and its business as usual.


That seems similar to Dong Zhou's option 3, honestly. Though I guess it depends on what you mean by 'business as usual'.

Shikanosuke wrote:Is that perchance an exaggerated concern? I'm not sure so much can really be laid at her feet, or her feet alone.


The genocide against blacks that followed Gadhafi's overthrow in Libya can be laid mostly at Clinton's feet, given that she advocated for it and was largely responsible for executing America's role in it. She's taken a hard line on Syria which will prolong the already brutal conflict and provide comfort to radical Sunni terrorism and its supporters. She's still in favour of NATO enlargement in Eastern Europe, which strikes me as a recipe for a geopolitical disaster, in the form of a potentially-nuclear conflict with Russia. She's an unconditional supporter of Abe's Japan against China; also the Saudis against Yemen and the Israelis against - well, everybody else. She doesn't acclimate her views to the presence of new conditions but instead evaluates everything through the lenses of past alliances. That might be favourable to the 'allies', but it's not smart.

Shikanosuke wrote:Is this really an option to you? Referring back to my option 5, I'd like to believe blow-hards who feel disenfranchised will not resort to armed insurrections.


It's not an option I endorse by any stretch of the imagination, if that's what you're asking. You know me better than that.

But having seen some of the rhetoric coming from Trump and his supporters, I feel like it's an option many of them are currently considering, and I don't like it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby DragonAtma » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:55 am

"Grab 'em by the pussy!" -- trump

He's toast. I've accidentally left pizzas in the oven for triple the time they should be, and they're still not as toast as him. Even the republicans are turning on him (at the minimum Reince Preibus, Kelly Ayotte, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Jon Huntsman, Mark Kirk, George Pataki, and Linda Chavez).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/don ... 55eab4336c
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-wapo-229299
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/07/politics/ ... index.html
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Shen Ai » Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:55 am

Seems like Republican leadership and party heavyweights were waiting for something like this to happen. I can't recall ever seeing a part turn on it's own candidate in public like this before.

In terms of a Clinton administration, I'm sort of predicting something similar to Obama's time in office really, though I think she'll be able to push forward a couple more things domestically than he ever did. Obama alienated Congress, Hillary is a deal-maker, a compromiser. She worked with the people who tried to tear her husband to shreds when she was a Senator, so I think she could make it work going ahead.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Zyzyfer » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:23 am

I haven't really been following this cycle enough to talk shop about the two candidates or anything like that. But I have to admit, I am taking some amount of pleasure out of reading comments from Republican friends on Facebook (more family, but anyway) about not wanting to choose between these two candidates. I saw some strong supporters out of the gate but that vote to party mentality has really been dwindling very recently.

That's what it took to disenfranchise them. Trump in all of his manly glory, emanating stamina wherever he goes...

Have to hand it to him and/or his advisors, he drove a huge wedge right through the growing divide between the extreme ends of the two major parties.

All it would really take at this point to have a truly competitive and respectable election is to just get someone on board on the Republican side who doesn't end up making a gaffe reel by the end of the affair. First it's Palin, then Romney (I'll never live that 47% comment down), then the primary antics with folks like Carson and so forth, and now The Big Bad hisself, Trumparoo.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:20 pm

Over here, the reaction towards Republicans now turning from Trump is eye-rolls. That he had been making these comments all the time so hardly a surprise about his attitude, why did they back him for nomination and other key moments but only seem to find their moral compass when Trump seems set for defeat.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:39 pm

I don't live in the US, but everything I've read makes me think that Trump losing won't mean much and he's really just a sign of a growing anger in rural America towards the economic crash going on there. Can anyone who lives in traditionally Republican voting territory weigh in on this?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Bush Leagues » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:05 pm

Gray Riders wrote:I don't live in the US, but everything I've read makes me think that Trump losing won't mean much and he's really just a sign of a growing anger in rural America towards the economic crash going on there. Can anyone who lives in traditionally Republican voting territory weigh in on this?


Yeah, I can offer a few words. I live in Louisiana, which is traditionally very hard to the right - in 2008, for instance, McCain/Palin won 66% of the vote here. This election cycle, I don't think I've seen even one sign or bumper sticker supporting Hillary Clinton; to be fair, I've only seen a few for Trump.

I think you're overstating the economic situation playing into it - at least here in (south) Louisiana, except for the oil fields being on hiatus, effectively, the economy has been fairly good. I understand his draw on some level for the common-man Republican.

...

I've been trying for a few minutes to put together a coherent line of logic here to explain why I think Trump has all this appeal, but I can't seem to do it for some reason. Part of it is probably just not having paid too much attention to the election, but I also can't seem to put it in words without sounding dumb right now. I'll post again if I manage to get my brain working again. :p
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