2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:24 pm

I read about that earlier, though I wonder many of the celebrities who said they'll come here actually will. I recall a lot of threats about Bush's second term, and I'm not sure how many carried it out. It's apparently not that easy to get here without refugee status.
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I have a few theories on why people would vote for Trump but I wonder how much of it is voter apathy? Yesterday before the results were coming in my father suggested Trump could win because he had fervent supporters who would go to vote, while Hillary has a "meh" reaction from a lot of the traditional democrat voting base. Combine with "no way Trump could win, I'll just stay at home and not waste my time" and I can see how it may have happened.

I think this really drove home to me that there's more of a culture difference between Canada and the US than I always thought; there was apparently a straw poll up here and the best Trump got was 28% in Manitoba.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Shikanosuke » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:54 pm

I wont' pretend to have a little bit of shock, not so much in his victory, but in the wide margin he received. I will say that I'll be reflecting on the concept of 'the will of the people' today. I certainly think there is a degree of overreaction to the immediate consequences, but I think his victory (or the entire 2016 race) exposes a lot about America, its electorate, and the forces pushing them. I will say, while disappointed by other elections, I've never really felt ashamed of a result such as this or dismayed by what it reveals about a lot (though not all) of America's electorate.

I wonder if we'll be seeing a lot of 'back-to-the-drawing board' meetings (or civil wars) from both parties, as I believe this election demonstrates that both parties ultimately failed to bring a favorite candidate to victory.In a two party system, that's pretty sad.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:40 pm

Gray Riders wrote:I was definitely not expecting this result.

I wonder how many of the people who threatened to move to Canada actually will?


Very few I suspect. People make a lot of grand declarations about this sort of thing in election time or in a UK case, plenty of high profile celebs said they would take in Syrian family. It has yet to happen. You may see a spike in passport applications but actual leaving? Will be extremly limited at first.

If the culture gets scary/morally stifling or the economy tanks then it won't be one huge influx but emigration numbers will climb and climb and US could face a braindrain of it's best young
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Bush Leagues » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:44 pm

Gray Riders wrote:I was definitely not expecting this result.

I wonder how many of the people who threatened to move to Canada actually will?


I'm with Dong on this one. I'll be surprised if any of the wealthy actually carry out that "threat".

Gray Riders wrote:I have a few theories on why people would vote for Trump but I wonder how much of it is voter apathy? Yesterday before the results were coming in my father suggested Trump could win because he had fervent supporters who would go to vote, while Hillary has a "meh" reaction from a lot of the traditional democrat voting base. Combine with "no way Trump could win, I'll just stay at home and not waste my time" and I can see how it may have happened.


I was watching the election on NBC, first at work and then at home. As it was looking more and more like Trump post Florida and North Carolina, they were suggesting that it was likely the expected models not projecting how much of rural America would come out and vote for him; his turnout in more than a few places were beating Romney and were matching something like Nixon or Reagan levels (I think Nixon, I forget now). It's also lower turnout for Clinton compared to Obama's 2008 run.

They also ran an interesting number regarding the possible sexism angle - of all Democrats, 90% of men and 90% of women voted Hillary. Of all Republicans 90% of men and 89% of women voted Trump. So basically, partisanship won out in the end. Now, independent men voted more for Trump then women when they ran those numbers (these were all a bit earlier in the election, when Trump was at 244 I think), but it seemed like of all independent men, more voted for Hillary than Trump (I can't be 100% sure on this point, but that's what I recall).

There were three big takeaways from me regarding election specifics. One was that Pennsylvania went Red, which is a big deal. Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for the president every time since 1988, so that was a noticeable change. Perhaps it shouldn't be so surprising considering Pennsylvania's demographics (blue-collar union workers certainly like protectionism platforms), but it's been something Republicans have been trying to crack for several elections, and they just couldn't seem to.

Secondly, Texas was Red, but only by 8 points. That's awful small for a state that is basically almost entirely conservative outside of Austin. Likely it's because of the growing Hispanic population, which Republicans will likely need some kind of strategy for to keep Texas fairly solidly red in the future.

Finally, the younger vote. Take a look at this map, which illustrates the election if only Millennials voted. That is a massive sea of blue with only a few red strongholds with the more independent (likely Libertarian Alaska and Montana) states going third party. In some ways it's not that surprising, but seeing it laid out like that is kind of...hmm, disturbing I guess? I have no love for the Republican Party, but I don't really see the Democrats as being any better; and going so massively that way will give them the...I can't think of the word I want...something like the political courage to basically do whatever. Which is scary.

Shikanosuke wrote:I will say that I'll be reflecting on the concept of 'the will of the people' today.


Yeah, this kind of sentiment has been with me for a while now, actually. I'm not so hot on democracy or a republic, actually, but I'm not sure what you could do that's really better. Not unlike what Winston Churchill said -

Winston Churchill wrote:"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."


There's a good video that I've watched recently that tackles this kind of concept - democracy and voting. It's fairly short at 16 minutes, and talks about the philosophy it all, which I think is where you're coming from. Here's the link. I personally recommend the whole series, as it tries to be impartial and talks about a number of subjects. But I recognize that might be a lot to watch for some.

Finally, a more personal note, that's not all that serious. My wife said that since we've been old enough to vote, we've gone to three presidential elections, and our guy has lost all three - McCain, then Romney, now Johnson. Being fairly set in the Libertarian camp has now doomed me to a lifetime of voting for eventual losers. :lol:

Oh well. Maybe one day.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:11 pm

Aaaaand we've got protests and, according to a few news sources (unsure how reliable they are), window smashing.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump- ... 00639.html

In Oakland, California, a crowd of 6,000 protesters smashed the windows of storefronts

Yeah, way to show the moral high ground.

Is there a "don't act like six year olds" political party anywhere? Can I vote for that one?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby WeiWenDi » Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:53 am

Pretty stunning upset. I was planning on preparing for a very different kind of resistance with a Clinton win, but now things seem at once much simpler and much more difficult.

I've lived in three of the four states (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) that flipped their votes and went to Trump this time around. And I can tell you exactly why they did so: Rust Belt angst. Clinton's campaign pushed us (and I'm using 'us' inclusively, talking about white-bread Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania people who are on the bottom rungs economically) away with remarkable force. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Clinton this time around, and several times was tempted to vote for Trump. Ultimately I didn't; I went third-party in the nationals, voted for two downticket Dems, one downticket Independent and one downticket Repub (probably my first and last vote for a Republican ever). And that was entirely because his cultural politics were so repulsive to me. But his trade policies and foreign policies were a major draw for me.

Also, I think Michael Moore had it pretty much right. This election in the Midland states was a great big giant 'f**k you' to the elite class that clearly didn't give two s**ts about them, their lost union jobs, their unemployment, their social dissipation and collapse. This was a Brexit-style upset.

Am I upset about it? Sure. It means a more hostile climate for my family. It means increased potential for (economic, perhaps political) conflict with China. It means more oligarch-friendly economic policies. It means no conservation policy to speak of. It means possible war with Iran or some other third-world power over resources.

But at least it's crystal-clear what the Democratic party ought to have been doing in the first place, and what they need to start doing right now, if they ever want to win another election. We have to go the Corbyn route (or the Sanders route, if you prefer). We've got to start listening to the folks left behind, the folks who don't want any more crappy free-trade deals forced down their throats, who want their union jobs back, who want us out of places in the world where we don't have any legitimate reason to be. Maybe they'll listen, once they've dried their tears and calmed down a bit.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:07 pm

WeiWenDi wrote:Pretty stunning upset. I was planning on preparing for a very different kind of resistance with a Clinton win, but now things seem at once much simpler and much more difficult.

I've lived in three of the four states (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) that flipped their votes and went to Trump this time around. And I can tell you exactly why they did so: Rust Belt angst. Clinton's campaign pushed us (and I'm using 'us' inclusively, talking about white-bread Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania people who are on the bottom rungs economically) away with remarkable force. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Clinton this time around, and several times was tempted to vote for Trump. Ultimately I didn't; I went third-party in the nationals, voted for two downticket Dems, one downticket Independent and one downticket Repub (probably my first and last vote for a Republican ever). And that was entirely because his cultural politics were so repulsive to me. But his trade policies and foreign policies were a major draw for me.

Also, I think Michael Moore had it pretty much right. This election in the Midland states was a great big giant 'f**k you' to the elite class that clearly didn't give two s**ts about them, their lost union jobs, their unemployment, their social dissipation and collapse. This was a Brexit-style upset.

Am I upset about it? Sure. It means a more hostile climate for my family. It means increased potential for (economic, perhaps political) conflict with China. It means more oligarch-friendly economic policies. It means no conservation policy to speak of. It means possible war with Iran or some other third-world power over resources.

But at least it's crystal-clear what the Democratic party ought to have been doing in the first place, and what they need to start doing right now, if they ever want to win another election. We have to go the Corbyn route (or the Sanders route, if you prefer). We've got to start listening to the folks left behind, the folks who don't want any more crappy free-trade deals forced down their throats, who want their union jobs back, who want us out of places in the world where we don't have any legitimate reason to be. Maybe they'll listen, once they've dried their tears and calmed down a bit.

This is pretty much what I'd read before the election about why Trump had such strong support.

I hope the democratic leadership is smart enough to look at why they lost because a lot of their voter base prefers to just scream "racism" and say there's no reason to help the rust belt because they're evil bigots who deserve to suffer.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Nov 12, 2016 1:54 pm

All eyes on Le Pen in US.

Shikanosuke wrote:I wont' pretend to have a little bit of shock, not so much in his victory, but in the wide margin he received. I will say that I'll be reflecting on the concept of 'the will of the people' today. I certainly think there is a degree of overreaction to the immediate consequences, but I think his victory (or the entire 2016 race) exposes a lot about America, its electorate, and the forces pushing them. I will say, while disappointed by other elections, I've never really felt ashamed of a result such as this or dismayed by what it reveals about a lot (though not all) of America's electorate.

I wonder if we'll be seeing a lot of 'back-to-the-drawing board' meetings (or civil wars) from both parties, as I believe this election demonstrates that both parties ultimately failed to bring a favorite candidate to victory.In a two party system, that's pretty sad.


Generally I think a stable democracy, the results of elections make sense. Sometimes it is a choice of bad vs even worse and when things are or feel very wrong, the decision might be suicidal or disturbing but still there is a logic behind why people voted that way.

That doesn't mean Churchill's line “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." doesn't have some truth. The "elite" has a tendency to either patronize and sneer at or act as if the average joe is really good and sweet at heart while the media will never ever turn to the voters and give them truths that the voters themselves are part of the problem and some of their complaints can be ridiculous (UK governments average completing 4/5ths of their manifesto ergo they always break their promises). I think there was a belief that attitudes on feminism and racism had changed a lot more then it is actually has and there has been complacency about the fight while ignoring that the mainstream political parties have not set a good example on pretty much any aspect of discrimination of late but any complaint about that is met by hostility.

The Democrats will indeed be searching for the way forward and I suspect it will take some time for them to find the right solution. They are about to start what Labour has been going through since 2010 and ours look nowhere near finding the solution for a variety of reasons. Republicans may fall into trap of thinking they win or it is now ok

Gray Riders wrote:Aaaaand we've got protests and, according to a few news sources (unsure how reliable they are), window smashing.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump- ... 00639.html

In Oakland, California, a crowd of 6,000 protesters smashed the windows of storefronts

Yeah, way to show the moral high ground.

Is there a "don't act like six year olds" political party anywhere? Can I vote for that one?


It tends not to be the leadership of parties that do this sort of rubbish (bar Farage) but activists do. I saw it when Ed Miliband lost the general election for Labour (not helped by left talking itself into thinking it would win) with one activist saying live on TV the country didn't deserve Ed (he also swore which allowed the presenter to give him a slapdown he deserved) and howls of rage that the country voted Tory. Brexit was even worse, I have seen people saying well it shouldn't count, the margin of victory was too small amongst some of the nicer things.

People won't remember specific moments but they will remember the impression it gives them. The sneering, that the activists and the party considers them scum of the earth, too thick to be allowed to have an opinion. Why the hell would you vote for something that hates you so much?

WeiWenDi wrote:
But at least it's crystal-clear what the Democratic party ought to have been doing in the first place, and what they need to start doing right now, if they ever want to win another election. We have to go the Corbyn route (or the Sanders route, if you prefer). We've got to start listening to the folks left behind, the folks who don't want any more crappy free-trade deals forced down their throats, who want their union jobs back, who want us out of places in the world where we don't have any legitimate reason to be. Maybe they'll listen, once they've dried their tears and calmed down a bit.


I get what your saying and agree with pretty much all of it but if Democrats want to get back in power anytime soon, they need to avoid the trap the left here can sometime fall into and they seem to be doing with Corbyn. The left can have a bit of a habit of going "oh yes, we know what the working people want", congratulating themselves on how in touch they are through their rallies and social media presence and fail to notice the working class don't actually support what they are saying. I'm not saying Sanders can't work, as I understand it he had working class support but struggled with BME's?, but he would have to go down a different route to Corbyn who is failing to build working class support for various reasons.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Gray Riders » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:23 pm

Dong Zhou wrote: the voters themselves are part of the problem and some of their complaints can be ridiculous (UK governments average completing 4/5ths of their manifesto ergo they always break their promises).

I wonder if this might be partly because of the Government's tendency not to forgive mistakes on the part of the public, even in cases where the law is frankly idiotic, so the public is unforgiving of the government in turn. Just guessing, though.

The sneering, that the activists and the party considers them scum of the earth, too thick to be allowed to have an opinion. Why the hell would you vote for something that hates you so much?

I've seen this asked before. The only answer (aside from silence) I've seen is easily summed up as "we're the good guys so you're supposed to be on our side no matter what and it's not our job to be nice to you."

With a platform like that, how can they fail? :roll:
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:59 am

Gray Riders wrote:I wonder if this might be partly because of the Government's tendency not to forgive mistakes on the part of the public, even in cases where the law is frankly idiotic, so the public is unforgiving of the government in turn. Just guessing, though.



The government has to mollycoddle the mistakes of the public constantly. Like "if you paid no attention to the letters we sent, the appeals in every media outlet, the news and everything else about the changes to your pension" then there is pressure for the government to pay up for these poor victims. Or the ever popular "voted for you but we dislike that your doing what you promised"
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