Russia vs. Putin

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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed May 14, 2014 11:47 am

Well we know restoration of pride, protecting it's spheres of influence and preventing the expansion of Nato/EU further but what that means in practise is sometimes hard to read.
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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:56 am

Just wondering what some here, particurly those that follow Russian affairs more closly then I, make of this. If ruling goes against Moscow, will it matter or will it have some effect?
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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby bodidley » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:04 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:Well we know restoration of pride, protecting it's spheres of influence and preventing the expansion of Nato/EU further but what that means in practise is sometimes hard to read.


Restoration of pride is perhaps a bit of an overstatement. I think the national pride has been restored.

When you consider Germany, France and the UK's ability to control EU policy, and the EU's power to control of trade between member states and non-member states, the Eastward expansion of the EU is a serious existential threat to Russia. So far the main incentive to join the EU has not been "join us because we're such swell guys," but rather "join us or have no trade rights."
I think that many Russians are legitimately concerned that the expansion of the EU could ultimately lead to the breakup of the Russian Federation, and EU policy towards its Eastern European members and neighbors tends not to be a promising prospect.
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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:27 pm

In England, a lot of eyes have been drawn to Russia's finances (the decline of Rouble, central bank's sharp interest rate rises, Putin warning there might be cuts), some wondering what this means for east Europe and Middle East.

So what do people here think? Just a minor problem or Russia in for some pain and how will that affect policy? How does Putin's government reverse the issue?
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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby WeiWenDi » Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:45 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:In England, a lot of eyes have been drawn to Russia's finances (the decline of Rouble, central bank's sharp interest rate rises, Putin warning there might be cuts), some wondering what this means for east Europe and Middle East.

So what do people here think? Just a minor problem or Russia in for some pain and how will that affect policy? How does Putin's government reverse the issue?


Russia is likely to weather a hard economic winter or three because of this. But with regard to oil prices, they are being politically manipulated by the US and by the Saudis - it likely won't be that long before they rise again. I really hope that Putin doesn't embark on austerity measures aimed against poor and rural Russians because of this.

On the other hand, I mostly agree with this. Creating a new inclusive security arrangement that doesn't treat Russia as the Big Bad would go a long way toward solving a lot of the region's problems - not just Russia's.
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Re: Russia vs. Putin

Unread postby James » Mon Dec 22, 2014 8:24 pm

WeiWenDi wrote:Russia is likely to weather a hard economic winter or three because of this. But with regard to oil prices, they are being politically manipulated by the US and by the Saudis - it likely won't be that long before they rise again. I really hope that Putin doesn't embark on austerity measures aimed against poor and rural Russians because of this.

I would say this falls largely on OPEC member decisions to maintain oil production levels. It actually does harm to US shale/fracking operations, which have played a large role in making the United States less energy dependent on other countries. These production methods are far more expensive in terms of cost vs. usable product and becomes less viable as the price of oil drops. If it drops too much more, it won't be viable at all. Though I'm sure there are US operations squirreling away cheap oil to sell when prices eventually go back up.

Edit: I see what you meant about Saudi Arabi. Although there are still other nations contributing and I'm still unsure how the US would benefit when prices this low are detrimental to shale-based production.

WeiWenDi wrote:On the other hand, I mostly agree with this. Creating a new inclusive security arrangement that doesn't treat Russia as the Big Bad would go a long way toward solving a lot of the region's problems - not just Russia's.

Now there's a thought exercise. The more Russia is characterized as the 'Big Bad' the more negative impact it will have on future interaction and negotiations between the countries (not to mention allies on both sides). But I'm not sure how they could really play that without some behind-the-scenes deal which settled some of the major differences leading to the 'Big Bad' characterization, and I'd be a little surprised if that's possible. I wish it were.
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