The World Economics Thread

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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Jan 30, 2015 4:58 pm

I'm not sure how much influence Greece is going to have on foreign policy but I wonder if the neo-nazi aspect in Ukraine is partly going to worry him due to their own problems

What most of Europe will be interested in is how his efforts to end the austerity go. It would amaze everyone if Germany, Finland (who I believe have elections) and the Dutch agreed to wipe out half the Greek debt and I'm not sure Greece has all the cards like it seems to think. Whatever gets decided, be it some halving the debt, some lengthening of debt and easing of austerity, or Greece being kicked out of the Euro, it will have ramifications in Greece and across Europe.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Boydie » Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:56 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:I'm not sure how much influence Greece is going to have on foreign policy but I wonder if the neo-nazi aspect in Ukraine is partly going to worry him due to their own problems

What most of Europe will be interested in is how his efforts to end the austerity go. It would amaze everyone if Germany, Finland (who I believe have elections) and the Dutch agreed to wipe out half the Greek debt and I'm not sure Greece has all the cards like it seems to think. Whatever gets decided, be it some halving the debt, some lengthening of debt and easing of austerity, or Greece being kicked out of the Euro, it will have ramifications in Greece and across Europe.


It's good we (the UK) do not have the euro. This is will hurt a lot of countries across the world and not just Europe. We have the Pound Sterling to blanket the blow, but we will still feel it.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:46 pm

As Greeks have a run on the banks, EU leaders meet for an emergency meeting on Monday with increasing fears that Greece will soon be out of the Euro.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Tao Qian » Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:34 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:As Greeks have a run on the banks, EU leaders meet for an emergency meeting on Monday with increasing fears that Greece will soon be out of the Euro.


And then, what next? I don't really think it would be bad for Greece or the eurozone as an average. We are really drowned in a coin that is too powerful for most of the states in the Union.

Probably for Germany would be different, of course.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:01 pm

Well in the referedum either Greece will vote

1) For the plan. Ie for austerity, in which case it will continue to suffer perpetual decline with unpayable debts, GDP shrinking, the suffering continues. Rest of EU fine until the next bail-out of Greece crises.

2) Greece rejects reforms and in essence, ask to be kicked out of Euro. Defaults on it's debts, banks go through an even larger run and will go through a painful period as it adjusts and launches the drachma. Probably best long term, gives it a fresh start but the short term will be extremely painful. For EU, they will be able to survive the initial shock waves but the genie is out and with the precedent of Greece, it stores up trouble for future when other countries get in trouble.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:26 am

Greek banks been forced to close as emergency funding dries up with capital controls likely
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:59 pm

Greece votes overwhelmingly to reject the current (withdrawn) offer with 61%. Unsurprisingly, the markets are in a panic as nobody is quite sure this leads and Greek banks are running out of cash.

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned, seems in a bid to accommodating to the creditors who seem to think of him of something of a.. annoyance. EU split as to what to do, some say no compromise for various reasons (moral hazard, had to go through austerity themselves, fear of encouraging popular parties, not wanting to face the electorate) and given Greece were warned they would be out if they voted no, making a deal would mean any future threat will be met with "you mean like Greece?". Others clearly want to offer Greece a better deal which, if that happens, will mean a bold gamble paying off for Greece.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Tao Qian » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:07 am

I'm not sure that markets are in panic with this problem in Greece and the proof is that the currency markets are fine. Pound has more or less the same value against euro as last week (actually it was worst on Sunday when Greece decided to do the referendum), and also the dollar.

I think that stock markets are actually reacting to the possible explosion of the Chinese bubble. It has to happen at some point and this would be really big trouble.
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:48 pm

They were initially in a panic but when it came clear there wouldn't be immediate repercussions and that things had been kicked down the road this Sunday eve, that calmed down. Certainly at the moment, China 's troubles are causing concern
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Re: The World Economics Thread

Unread postby Boydie » Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:55 pm

Greece should of never been aloud to join the currency union in the first place. As much the fault of the members of the currency union than Greece.
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