Middle East: Passion & Protest

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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Hussam » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:34 pm

A very nasty explosion happened in Egypt targeting the Coptic Christian community in Saint's Mark Coptic Orthodox Cathedral.
News like this are like a slap to the face.
Who the hell do you think I am?!
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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:05 am

What are people's thoughts on Qatar's diplomatic and travel isolation by neighbouring countries?
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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:14 pm

Trump's new plan for Israel/Palestine, seems like Israel loves it and Palestine boycotting but what do people think of Trump's proposal?
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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Lord Yang Jiahua » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:19 am

At least its a two state solution.

At face value it doesn't seem that impossible with regards to the economic requirements, which mainly look like trying to integrate the Palestinians into the International economic order.

I agree with the terrorism clauses, no teaching of it in schools, no pensions to "martyr" families etc etc.

There really should be a requirement on Israel though, that says, no encroaching on their land or annexing stuff after the plan goes into effect, and that all disputes of that nature should be settled with International tribunal and UN Peace Keeping troops.
(Technically that might not work either because America could just turn a blind eye and Trump could just shrug and flail at the podium "i dunno man, i told them not to do that anymore, but hey, what are u gonna do," etc)

I haven't seen any concrete reasoning to reject it bar the above, which has gone unsaid btw. The Palestinians are basically going to reject anything anyone gives them, or if it seems too generous, the Israelis will reject it. This is the closest anyones going to get bar a massive War, to peace there.

There is a sort of "military protectorate" clause in there basically giving Israel full oversight over the ins and outs of Palestinian State and the border etc, which is somewhat bad, but then having been seen as in-fact terrorists for quite some time nobody would want to trust the Palestinians with such security arrangements.

The various regional powers seem to generally agree so far that this is a good first step and that its the right track to peace.
Turkey pointed out the land stealing, but they have their own regional designs. Everyone else seemed at best warm to the attempt at peace. Jordan (obvious because of the common Border) has reservations but that's expected. Iran of course opposed it no matter what.

In the end, you can't get these parties to agree, and even if you do, one will want something after its settled and back and forth, like two spoiled children fighting over a toy, but you can't also openly tell these two to simply have at it and blow each other to bits.
"We Will Show Wu The Meaning of Fear!"-Cao Cao in DW6
"Politicians Are all the same all over, They Promise to build a bridge even when theres no river"-Nikita Khrushchev
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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Zhang Huaxian » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:42 am

I'd like to share my bit thoughts over situation in Syria this year.

If we consider whole Syria as a petty Tianxia(yeah I deliberately talk like this, otherwise why call it a RTK forum?), then Bashar Assad is about to reunite it. And the opposition forces turn out to be tens of thousands of warlords, poorly organized, not even led by a Yuan Shao-like person. While Bashar Assad may just binded traits of both Liu Bei and Cao Cao.

I've been focusing on SAA campaigns in Idlib recently. Only about 20 kms of M5 now left being controlled by HTS, but future battles may be tougher as Turkey deploys more troops and send 300 ATGMs. I guess Syrian Salvation Government must have been fled from Idlib city, otherwise their situation will be the same to Wen Tianxiang's description for South Song Dynasty in Zhi Nan Lu Hou Xu("Epilogue for My Exile Years in Southern Land"):"...no time for preparing battles, setting defence or moving the capital." Idlib city is now too close to the frontline, just like Hangzhou being too close to the Mongols at that time.

Erdogan's refugee settlement plan might end up in vain. Even Syria is unable to take back the Turkey-occupied territories due to the Russo-Turkey agreement, resistance of Kurdish forces, or threats by SAA to invade the areas could constantly sow dissent. What might then happens is similar to what we saw on Turkey-Syria border after the Operation Idlib Dawn started: refugees flooding, with armed jihadists mixed in, applying pressure on Turkish border.
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Re: Middle East: Passion & Protest

Unread postby Zhang Huaxian » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:21 am

Now things in Idlib cannot be more clear. HTS and its proxies are inevitably collapsing. People are celebrating all night in Aleppo downtown. The fate, the existence of all sorts of opposition forces are depend upon pro-government faction.
Depression due to the failure of Turkey's military operation in Idlib, and anger toward Erdogan administration that transferred from it will have pressure on Turkey for a period. Organizing everything in Afrin, Azaz, Al-Bab already cost Istanbul a lot.
So what might happen if Assad target the Turkish colonies(areas of Olive Branch, Eupharates Shield and Peace Spring) immeadiately after he wipes out jihadists of Greater Idlib? If Erdogan then decides to retreat, he will lose face too quick, both domestic and abroad; if not, tens of thousands of critics are there waiting him, and Turkish army might suffer heavy loss. That has always been a dilemma for the Turks since they started expansion into Syria.
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