Libya: Civil War and Restoration

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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Crazedmongoose » Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:48 am

When a government turns to engaging foreign forces to maintain control, their time is pretty much over. Citizens can often stomach tyrants who have popular domestic support, but they'll rarely stomach tyrants who enlists foreign help to crushing their own countrymen. Such was the case when the French Revolution executed Louis XVI in response to Austria's attempts to restore him.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Zhuanyong » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:31 am

Crazedmongoose wrote:When a government turns to engaging foreign forces to maintain control, their time is pretty much over. Citizens can often stomach tyrants who have popular domestic support, but they'll rarely stomach tyrants who enlists foreign help to crushing their own countrymen. Such was the case when the French Revolution executed Louis XVI in response to Austria's attempts to restore him.


Great example!

I believe at the head of this ordeal Gadhafi knew it would be snuff or bust. I'm sure he didn't truly believe that there would be a middle ground. In fact, I want to believe that with the events in Tunisia and Egypt occurring he probably had an idea that he would be soon to be revolted against. He does have a loyal collective in Egypt with family ties, but after a while even those ties whittle down.

As he put it, he is willing to be a martyr for his cause and he likely will meet his end in that way. Liberty and justice for all I suppose.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Zhai Rong » Wed Feb 23, 2011 6:15 am

He's not the sort who can retire peacefully into civilian life in his own country, and from what I heard on the BBC last night, no other country is willing to give him refuge. He's really got no option but to fight to the bitter end. I'd assume that it'd be a lot easier for the mercenaries to flee, so their continued presence means that they don't quite see it as a lost cause yet.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Crazedmongoose » Wed Feb 23, 2011 8:19 am

No country? Not even Venezuela?
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Zhuanyong » Wed Feb 23, 2011 1:31 pm

Crazedmongoose wrote:No country? Not even Venezuela?


For some reason I don't believe he sees it as an option.

I have a feeling that he would be welcomed there based on the Venezuelan leader's constant need to show up America. Honestly, he probably would get along with Gadhafi fairly well. I've seen comparisons where it states that Libya is to Africa what Venezuela is to South America.

Gadhafi seems to really be willing to die in Libya and that is likely what he'll get.

Hmm, there are some contradicting reports out there --

Gadhafi flees to Venezuela

Venezuela denies that Gadhafi has fled there
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby agga » Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:51 pm

if i had to guess where he'll flee to, it would be zimbabwe. he and mengistu can hang out.

libya's starting to look like a tragedy, i hope this doesn't go on for years. is that possible, or is it likely to get shut down in a matter of days or weeks? it sounds like qadafi has arranged the libyan state so that without him and his closest followers at the center, it has no center. looks like long-term trouble.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby TooMuchBaijiu » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:18 pm

agga wrote:if i had to guess where he'll flee to, it would be zimbabwe. he and mengistu can hang out.

libya's starting to look like a tragedy, i hope this doesn't go on for years. is that possible, or is it likely to get shut down in a matter of days or weeks? it sounds like qadafi has arranged the libyan state so that without him and his closest followers at the center, it has no center. looks like long-term trouble.


Zimbabwe...another place in need of a revolution. Things were actually going relatively well there, until Mugabe began seizing land from the white farmers, tanking the economy. Personally, I think Mugabe's as crazy as Gaddafi, though he wasn't always that way. From what I've read, Mugabe was actually quite effective in his earlier years. Here's hoping that maybe Morgan Tsvangirai can make a difference over there.

As for Libya, I don't think Gaddafi can maintain too much longer. It's become abundantly clear that he's buying his loyalty-that can't last. The only ones who are truly loyal to him are probably the ones who know they'll be purged along with him.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Zhuanyong » Thu Feb 24, 2011 12:20 am

Pilots refuse to bomb citizens choosing to eject from their planes!

With this utter refusal for compliance, I agree with TMB in that at the current rate of rebellion against Gadhafi his regime will be toppled fairly soon. He may be able to muster some scat forces from Egypt but, the Libyans at the border will likely be waiting for them with AK-47's and other armory.

If he can't control his own army, he won't hold power for much longer. It brings to mind the situation that occurred with Nicholas II. He may be facing a similar execution prior to assumed exile.
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Lord Yang Jiahua » Thu Feb 24, 2011 1:38 am

well i guess any asassainition is just plain fiction now,
but question i mean how is he going to get out of the country if he decides to run will they just let him and abondon him in exile in some sympathetic country or what? Won't someone try and stop him in order to get official resignation or abdication
thereby allowing a new government to legitamately take over. Or are we majorly expecting him to do that first then leave?
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Re: Libya: Civil War Looming?

Unread postby Zhuanyong » Thu Feb 24, 2011 5:56 pm

Lord Yang Jiahua wrote:well i guess any asassainition is just plain fiction now,
but question i mean how is he going to get out of the country if he decides to run will they just let him and abondon him in exile in some sympathetic country or what? Won't someone try and stop him in order to get official resignation or abdication
thereby allowing a new government to legitamately take over. Or are we majorly expecting him to do that first then leave?


I'm not sure if anyone sees this guy as giving up any power by choice.

I think uniformly he is either going to have to be removed by force (very literally) or martyred (because he said he would be such) and replaced. Though he can be full of hot air and trying to promote a false bravado, I truly believe he is serious and will need to be dragged out or killed.

But if that were to happen, there aren't a large list of countries that would take him in. Besides that of a Venezuela or a few others he may be a sitting duck for murder even after removal if he didn't die in office and was exiled.

This situation isn't one of those to be taken lightly. People really want him dead (there was already a fatwa issued on him) and he will likely get his wish if this carries on much further. I don't believe it is fiction at all -- he is not Saddam Hussein (he has less control) and we all see what happened to him in the end.
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