UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri May 03, 2019 6:11 pm

Numbers as of 18:30, 236 of 248 councils had declared.

Tories lost 41 councils and a whooping 1,240 councillors:Cleverly had expected Brexit backlash. Held Swindon early but lost Basildon to NOC (no overall control), gained Walsall but lost St Albans to NAO with their council leader ousted by Lib Dems, lost Southend-on-Sea with eight seat losses to NAO, lost Worcester which was seen as a key area in small town hold off Corbyn at election, lost the symbolic Trafford (which they see as reach in the north) after nine seat losses and Labour take it with six new seats, lose Broxtowe, take Stoke-on-Trent, lose Peterborough (which isn't the same as the Peterborough seat up for election in June). Take new council West Suffolk, lose Craven and North Hearts, Warwick goes due to Lib Dems and Greens surge, lose Pendle, Babergh and Mid Suffolk, Malvern Hills, Mendip, Staffordshire Moorlands, utterly failed to make any headway in Copeland. Lost Richmondshire and North Somerset, they hang on in Somerset Heath but lost 14 councillors, lose Guilford, South Ribble and Rother.

ERG figures like Patel, Jenkin and Blunt says this proves May has to go, Brady says government needed to sort out Brexit and been seen as competent to get activists back out, Lewis and May says Brexit needs to be done. Sir Ames says no process for replacing May is a problem as leaves future up in air and people aren't inspired. Javid warns MEP elections will be worse, party seen as failing on Brexit and divided

Was always going to be a "stem the losses", last time round Tories had done unusually well, governing party hit but Brexit failure, May's declining popularity, Williamson scandal at exactly wrong moment, experts were predicting around 800 and some were even talking a 1,000 losses. They hit that, even with UKIP retrenching, Brexit party not being there so may have got a few "I'll vote for... ok someone else then" votes but Labour's struggles which will allow May to go "both sides are hurting". ERG were always going to use this to try to oust her but it doesn't seem to be building up steam right now,, might in a few days as full scale of the defeat sinks in but Labour's struggles are catching the focus. However they should be worried at how Lib Dems are clawing into Tory heartlands like Vale of White Horse while scale of defeat in Bath hugely concerning and lost a lot of councils to Lib Dems like Winchester, Somerset (ok that was a new one) and so on, they may held off Labour in small towns but Lib Dems are hurting them.

Labour lost 5 councils and 77 councillors McDonnell says (pre results) says he couldn't blame people for being sick of state of politics right now but had recently predicated gains of 400. Labour hold the first seats to declare (two in troubled Sunderland and Basildon) but UKIP and Greens winning in Sunderland and early reports meant there was a sense Brexit would hit (though Sunderland has very local and horrible issues with Labour council), Labour hopes of spinning that as Brexiteers being unhappy was undone when Remain areas also turned against Labour. They took hits in Wirral that led to NAO, failed to take Swindon again, lost Hartlepool, lost seven seats in Bolton to NAO, council leaders very quick to blame Brexit, got huge win in Trafford, lots Bolsover which they have held since 1973 with 13 losses to NAO, Ashfield to independents, lose Cannock Chase NAO. Build well in Worthing where they now have ten councillors, gain Calderdale for first time in 20 years, lost Darling to NAO. Momentum's Jamie Driscoll was surprisingly taken to second count for North Tyne mayor but did get it, lose Stockton on Tees, Middlesbrough falls to independents, took High Peak from Tories, North East Derbyshire to NAO, take Mansfield though apparently on ground wasn't much thought of Tory mayor, a surprise taking of Gravesham, lost Chester and Cheshire West.

Gardiner blamed attempt to please both Remainers and Leavers, Ruth Smeeth says people feel Labour has not delivered on Brexit, Nia Griffiths says local factors and Tory cuts with people getting turned off politics. Jess Philips "I'm off to bed as have to be up at 7am to do the school run. My final word is that I think our position on Brexit has failed. Bravery is needed. If you combine kindness and effectiveness with a bit of grit most people will respect you even when they don't always agree.." then later says people confused by Labour faffing around on the issue. In the morning Gwynne agreed Brexit hit in a tough set of elections, Lib Dem gains were in Lib Dem areas, McDonnell says they have got the message that Brexit needs to be sorted (quickly denies he meant compromise with May), Turley "Stand in the middle of the road and you get run over in both directions." Neil Coyle "Nine years into Tory led Governments and all the damage they've unleashed. Three years after the Brexit referendum. One massive elephant in the room. Bailout Barry is wrong. If Labour act as midwife to Brexit we will be treated as the junior partner were in the last Tory Coalition. We are not a Leave Party & should be fully opposing the Tories & Brexit. Members deserve better than this." Barry referring to Gardner.

Lavery blames second referendumers as public want Brexit done, Darren Jones says a wider issue "From the results I’ve seen it seems clear: traditional Labour voter base doesn’t like us very much and the voters we have to persuade to vote for us have had enough. To suggest this is just about Brexit is failing to see the wood from the trees.", Corbyn says Labour only party trying to reach out to both sides of Brexit divide, says results partly local and party Brexit while using Trafford as a smokescreen then later says it shows people want a deal done, Nandy on small town failure "We’ve had a problem in these towns for decades and we still don’t get it,"

Labour were looking to gain, after all they are the opposition and Tories were going to lose ground, a few hundred extra councillors maybe, win a few target seats (like Trafford but also the small towns they need to win over) and claim progress. They were not expected to be a loser and now recrimination and infighting has started as to why. Corbyn? He tends to do badly at these kind of elections and there has to be question as to why but this wasn't an issue I have heard being mentioned and he will point to his general election+other factors. Local factors? That will be case in a few places like Sunderland but it tends to only be used if losing. Brexit? Everyone agrees yes but nobody quite agrees how, are they losing Remain votes by being seen as too close to Tories or being blamed for holding up the deal or both and how to combat it? Expect a major push again on second referendum. Are voters just sick of both main parties and Corbyn's outsider feel no longer works? I think Labour are paying for Brexit on both wings but also the "sick of the system" hit, things like small towns were an issue before Corbyn for example.

Lib Dems gained ten councils and 647 councillors: They were hopeful on the night, ousted St Albans and Bath Tory leaders, seized Winchester+Cotswolds+Bath (plus 37+ seats on that one), Mole Valley, Vale of White Horse (I had never heard of it), Hinkley, Somerset from Tories and North Norfolk+North Devon from NAO. Hobhouse calls it fantastic, Remainers rallying to them and shows Lib Dems are back, Sir Davey calls it best result for them in a generation.retire.

Will give them huge boost before MEP elections, can dismiss argument of ChangeUK that Lib Dems are a dying force and can argue "you want remain? Vote for us" with more force but I would be wary of going too far into that, this may be a "best protest option" and that the country has felt time to move on from coalition and give them a new hearing. Notably main gains are in Tory lands which will relieve Labour and Lib Dems can be hard to shift but they need to bed in locally and build platforms. It has led to some wondering if Sir Cable may choose to stay on rather then retiring as planned but I feel that would be a mistake, I doubt Cable had cut through and they need a new leader but use this to let him go on a dignifed high and with momentum behind them, clawing their way back to third party status.

Greens 143 councillors: Sian Berry excited by break throughs, think people are turning against the days of one or two big parties controlling councils, huge surge in Wirral and Folstone but will be dissapointed at failure to take Brighton. Greens celebrate their best ever election night, generally seen as a superb showing which will be a boost to their co-leaders and people will be looking as to why (second protest party, Remain, climate change up the agenda), they will now have to use this as Lib Dems do for building a base to build up strongholds for future. Their long climb up has taken a major step

Others: UKIP splinter group For Britain Movement gets first seat in Hartlepool, another splinter group Democrats and Veterans got seat in Bury. Independent businessman Andy Preston thrashed Labour to win Middlesborough mayoral contest (17,418 versus 6,693), UKIP lost symbolic Thurrock and took 138 losses but plenty of those were seats UKIP had given up on, this looks bad on paper but generally seen as a decent enough showing. Resident Association gained a council and 35 councillors, Independent Community & Health Concern got six councillors, Liberals gained a councillor, Independent got their first council and a major 579 new councillors, No Overall Control "gained" 34 councils with their Brexit policy inspiring us all

====

-Papers (too early for council results) eye on Williamson strike back on May and other stories

-Sir Hoyle wants Commons to bring in cats to help with rodent problem

-local election dogs

-Scottish government will legislate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2045, the Committee on Climate Change had urged them to be five years ahead of UK which it wants to target that at 2050

-Stewart says Williamson deserves respect for energy he brought, admits he will run for leadership when May steps down and so will speak beyond brief at times

-Hammond decides not to axe 1p and 2p coins

-Hinds looking at special needs funding due to rise of those requiring support

-Is an attempt in Liverpool to axe Joe Anderson by abolishing post of Mayor

-Some journalists wonder if local election results might make Labour leadership rather more keen on making a Brexit deal though the party will likely not be any more keen.

-Professor Curtice "This evening, even without the challenge of the Brexit Party or Change UK, the electoral hold of the Conservative and Labour parties on the British electorate is looking now as weak as it has done at any point in post-war British politics." and "The truth is, the evidence of the opinion polls has been that, whereas it has been leave voters in particular who have been wanting to punish the Conservatives - though that was not perhaps as evident last night as you might imagine - on the Labour side the party has been losing both remain and leave voters. And in a sense therefore the problem with the fudge isn’t just necessarily that it does not deliver the Brexit the Labour leave voters are looking for, it doesn’t satisfy Labour remain voter either.", warns Lib Dem's are more party of protest rather then second referendum support

-Ruth Davidson hopes local elections will give both sides a kick to get deal done and rules out being leader of UK party, Sturgeon wanrs Labour if the lesson they take is backing a Tory Brexit then they will pay dearly, Hunt "Following local election results from Nairobi, which look at this stage like a slap in the face for both the main parties. My heart goes out to conservative councillors who have lost their seats. A few positives results too and big shock to see Laour lose Wirral and Hartlepool"

-Apparently a large spike in spoilt ballots

-May heckled at Welsh Tory conference but heckler booed out

-BBC vote share calculation is 28% for the two main parties each, 19% for Lib Dems and 25% for other parties, Sky News says Tories would be largest in hung parliament

-DUP’s first openly gay candidate, Alison Bennington, has been elected to Antrim and Newtownabbey borough council.

-Beaconsfield Tory party have decided not to deslect Grieve but want him to have a more positive contribution on Brexit in coming months

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-Lord Young hope Williamson sacking will cause cabinet members to reconsider their leaking

-Boris claimed he voted. Had to delete tweet when pointed out there was no local election in his area

-Lord Deben uses strong language to describe need for properly insulated houses

-Brexit party says rise of independents show bond with main two parties has broken

-Pickles says if MP's can't decide Brexit then he reluctantly thinks referendum is way to go

====

-Kuessenberg on early message of local election, Peck on voters turn on main parties

-Simon Jenkins on Williamson
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Sat May 04, 2019 7:56 am

I didn't get to vote yesterday - I'm a Londoner now so we didn't have local elections.

The reason the conservatives got hit hard should be some explanatory so I'm not going to bother to comment on that.

I think Labours ambiguity is the issue. No-one I spoke to wanted to vote for them because they didn't know what they were voting for. It both smacked of cowardice (in my opinion) and a lack of integrity. I think they'll do even worse in the European election because many will have voted on local issues during this vote. I can imagine then huge swaths of their vote defecting to either the Brexit Party or Lib Dem/Change depending on their stances. I've been saying this all along but I'm also firmly convinced that Corbyn only appeals to one part of the Labour heart land. He is seen as part of the middle class, liberal elite who students and young left leaning radicals adore. I don't think that among the working class, Northern heartlands he has anything close to the same appeal.

Lib Dem's had a great day and they needed to. I agree with you DZ that they did well because some view them as being very good on local issues. I know my parents always vote for them in council elections because they do a good job, but they would be less likely to vote for them in a general election because they don't agree with many of their policies. However they needed a strong turn out to build a narrative saying that we are the anti-Brexit party and I think they can do that now. It doesn't matter the real reasons they did well in this vote, that they are perceived to be the party of remain is what will matter for them. They just need to push through the message that a vote for Change dilutes their strength. Now we'll see if they can. Personally I hope they don't. I didn't like how the party treated Farron and leaves me with little confidence on how they'll respect those who disagree with them more widely. I don't have high hopes for Change in that regard really but I'll see how Shuker gets on and how they party treat him.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Sat May 04, 2019 12:38 pm

I was going to comment on the elections but I’ve gone confused myself again. :lol: Could I be reminded which parties are remain or leave, generally? I think the UK’s liberals and conservatives are indeed different from ours, so I get confused.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat May 04, 2019 6:03 pm

Putting news in spoilers to avoid crushing the discussions

-Gwynne tries to get focus on Tory huge losses and that Labour won some key targets which they will work on rather then that they lost. As the opposition party. Not going to work. May also tries "look over there" at Labour, says always going to be difficult with nine years in government and the Brexit factor (even so, 1,000 losses was meant to be scaremongering, not an underestimate), welcomes Corbyn's commitment to getting deal done. Sir Cable talks of spectacularly good result, making them strongest Remain party and every Lib Dem vote is a vote to stop Brexit (bear in mind Lib Dem voters pre-Coalition used to be very anti-immigration while party was very pro-immigration, protest voters do not vote on policy)

-Tories lost a third of their councils, only the second time in history that the two main parties' projected national share of the vote had fallen below 30%, estimated over 30,000 spoiled ballots, Vicky Ford broke down in tears when interviewed about losses in Chelmsford. Both main parties tended to be hit in their strongholds with independents and Lib Dems as the protest vote

-Sir Curtice on what the local elections told us

-Wishart promises electronic voting and to hold debates around UK

-I suspect Gardiner's "we are trying to bail you out" to Tories is going to be replayed again and again

-40 years since Thatcher first entered number 10 as PM

-Hancock urges Welsh Tories to unite and pull together and warns they must get Brexit through while not allowing themselves to be defined by Brexit, Gove tells ERG they must face reality and that no deal Brexit isn't going to happen, May warns no deal Brexit will harm economy and risk the union given two countries voted Remain

-Paper headlines focus on Tories epic defeat or on both sides being slammed for failure on Brexit, is a push from usual suspects for May to go,, Times saying Hancock may make vaccinations compulsory

-Bangladeshi foreign minister Abdul Momen says Begum is British national and not their responsibility while warning she would face death penalty in Bangladesh

=====

-Fiona Onasanya won't return in recall election

-Labour get seat at Hambleton for first time in a decade as was a draw so election officer had to randomly choose from two envelopes with each containing name of a candidate

-New councillor Charlotte Leach spoke well on why people go for the job, the abuse they got and others on Beyond Today's "Who would be a politician"

====

-Dominic Sandbrook everything has changed and it could get even worse for main candidates

-Freedland feel Labour's "get Brexit done" is wrong reading of election results

-Sun editorial May must go and everything is changing

-Forysth (sun) potential Brexit deal, local elections, Peterborough will be significant and other stories

-Iain Watson people will pick their own reasons why Labour struggled

-Kuessenberg pain for both parties


Jia Nanfeng wrote:I was going to comment on the elections but I’ve gone confused myself again. :lol: Could I be reminded which parties are remain or leave, generally? I think the UK’s liberals and conservatives are indeed different from ours, so I get confused.


Short answer Remain Lib Dems, Change UK, SNP, Plaid, Sinn Feinn, Labour membership, some Labour MP's, Labour voters Brexit: UKIP, Brexit Party, DUP, Tory membership, a strong hardcore of Tory MP's, Labour leadership, reluctant Labour MP's and a few core pro-ones, a somewhat reluctant Tory leadership and MP's, Labour voters. For the more complex

Remain: Of those that ran in this and are of any significance, traditional third party Liberal Democrats (a merge in 1988 of the old but collapsed Liberals and the Social Democrats who had split from Labour in the 80's, socially liberal attitudes but split between centre-left and very left) are very Remain with MP's, philosophy was also very pro-EU and activists but can sometimes be used as protest vote even when people disagree with policy. Greens (eco left, some old left and some more centrist left) are pro-Remain.

Of those not running in local elections ChangeUK is a group of Remain MP's who left Labour and Tories and a new party who weren't ready to run, current 3rd largest party SNP (aka Scottish Nationalists, centre-left) are Remain with leadership and Scotland is mostly Remain but SNP have a strong Brexit streak in activist base, Welsh Nationalist Plaid Cymru and the main Irish Republicans Sinn Feinn (but have limited influence as they refuse to take their seats in Westminster). These parties tend to be on the left or left of centre.

Leave: UKIP aka UK Independent Party helped create the referendum by putting pressure on Tories but collapsed after referendum due to infighting, rebuilding in a harder right direction. Of those not running in local election including their former leader Nigel Farage (populist and wily campaigner but has a ceiling to support so never becomes MP) is leading the Brexit Party and is the one everyone has their eye on for Europe elections due to Farage's skill on this sort of thing, DUP are the lead Irish unionists and coalition partners to the Tories, old left in domestic policy (they hate Corbyn and alliance with Labour wouldn't have numbers needed) but very socially conservative, have had huge influence of Brexit process but failure to form a government in Ireland and didn't come through when push came to shove has seen that collapse.

The two main parties The Tories range from liberals, patricians, free marketeers, centrists to hard right may have taken us into Europe but their Remain base is small and not very well organized, generally the pro-business, pro law and order, pro countryside with bases in rich areas like the south, small towns and countryside. Thanks to the energetic centrist Ruth Davidson, they also have base in Scotland as the second party.

The large majority of their MP's are either 1) MP's like May and Hammond who think Brexit is a very stupid idea (with varying degrees of openness about it) but feel duty bound to follow the referendum and that going against it would be even worse then Brexit. 2) passionate Brexiteers like star minister Gove (environmental and rural affairs) who feel some sort of deal is best way forward and that purity is a bad mistake that could cost Brexit entirely, 3) Remainers and "yeah I kinda favour Brexit I suppose" who converted to Brexit (some with leadership ambitions now "with zeal of convert"). They sort of gather around May's deal but plenty want a softer Brexit so plenty won't align with May's deal. Scottish Tories in Remain areas but follow option 1.

The Tory membership however is very hard Brexit pro and they will select next leader (thus some conversions and shows of Brexit love from former Remainers) and there has always been a hard-core among MP's for decades who have brought down elected PM after elected PM (their candidates fail to win elections when given chance). Nicknamed the bastards after PM John Major called some of them that (they created havoc during his time as leader) and was overheard, now called the ERG (European Research Group). They have a decent enough chunk of MP's ranging from the hard right, the sovereignty lovers, the economic hard liberals and the ambitious, they have been very disciplined generally which has made them very effective for awhile. Now split somewhat between those are now back May's deal for fear of long delay will see Brexit drift away and those who feel no deal Brexit/hard Brexit is default (which it is) so they just need to bide time and a pure Brexit will happen. Tried to overthrow May twice and will try again, next leader likely to be from that group.

Labour is our version of the democrats, one has the the old left, the unions,the (now diminished) centre-left, the metropolitan cities, the northern working class cities, their voters are a mix of the Remain cities like London and Brexiteer northern cities like Sunderland. Utterly control Wales as they have done for some time, Wales voted Brexit and is old left though their MP's and Welsh leadership are Remainers.

Corbyn has been a life long Brexiteer (a follower of Tony Benn where they saw EU as capitalist and undemocratic) but "switched" to Remain once leader as says has been persuaded of the need for EU, gave the most lacklustre camapign possible for Remain so suspicions his conversion is fake. General stance since referendum has been as ambiguous as possible to try to win over both Remainers and Leavers, to keep his coalition together, that he backs Brexit but just not May's deal as his would be super awesome while not being too pro Brexit to alienate the Remainers. His general hope seems to have been he could keep as ambiguous as possible, let May and Tories carry out Brexit (or be so close that his taking power couldn't stop it) then win election with Tories being hit for Brexit failings while he keeps Remainers and Brexiteers together but May turning to Corbyn for a joint deal and recent events have made that more difficult. Backed up by loyalists who pick Corbyn over EU, those like Tories who voted Remain and whose own instinct is for EU but feel doing so after referendum would be bad for country and second referendum would be a disaster, those in small towns and leave areas who feel duty bound to represent their Brexiteer votes.

However Labour membership, including Corbyn's usually very loyal activists, are pro Remain and have been pushing for a second referendum, this also has backing of a substantial amount of Remain (even if they don't quite admit it) MP's of the centre-left including those in his cabinet. Corbyn has tended to try to deal with this by agreeing to a referendum if certain circumstances happen (every other option has failed, the moon is green) to keep Remainers onside while trying to ensure he never actually has to do it.

Sun Fin wrote:I didn't get to vote yesterday - I'm a Londoner now so we didn't have local elections.

The reason the conservatives got hit hard should be some explanatory so I'm not going to bother to comment on that.

I think Labours ambiguity is the issue. No-one I spoke to wanted to vote for them because they didn't know what they were voting for. It both smacked of cowardice (in my opinion) and a lack of integrity. I think they'll do even worse in the European election because many will have voted on local issues during this vote. I can imagine then huge swaths of their vote defecting to either the Brexit Party or Lib Dem/Change depending on their stances. I've been saying this all along but I'm also firmly convinced that Corbyn only appeals to one part of the Labour heart land. He is seen as part of the middle class, liberal elite who students and young left leaning radicals adore. I don't think that among the working class, Northern heartlands he has anything close to the same appeal.

Lib Dem's had a great day and they needed to. I agree with you DZ that they did well because some view them as being very good on local issues. I know my parents always vote for them in council elections because they do a good job, but they would be less likely to vote for them in a general election because they don't agree with many of their policies. However they needed a strong turn out to build a narrative saying that we are the anti-Brexit party and I think they can do that now. It doesn't matter the real reasons they did well in this vote, that they are perceived to be the party of remain is what will matter for them. They just need to push through the message that a vote for Change dilutes their strength. Now we'll see if they can. Personally I hope they don't. I didn't like how the party treated Farron and leaves me with little confidence on how they'll respect those who disagree with them more widely. I don't have high hopes for Change in that regard really but I'll see how Shuker gets on and how they party treat him.


I wasn't in a voting area either

I think there will be complaints from Labour in a few days about lack of focus in Tories epic defeat but I thin that is the problem. We know why Tories lost that badly, we know how the party will react, it only be if Westminster reaction is really bad this week that focus will on them. There are big talking points about how Tories bounce back, what routes they need to take but that is (in media terms) for the future.

Yeah I think Brexit has been a huge problem. The confusion as to what they actually believe seems to be there, Remainers have alternative options, I think May inviting Corbyn to work out a deal has hit Labour as Remainers are going "he is willing to bring through a Tory Brexit?" and Brexiteers are also pinning blame on Corbyn for deal not happening, that he is part of the elite now stopping their Brexit. I do think both main parties are being hit by anyone but them and yes, MEP elections will be even worse becuase Remainers will go for three remain parties, Brexiteers will go for the two Brexit parties.

I do agree Corbyn's main appeal is to, as it were, the metropolitan and the young but the general election did see the northern heartlands rally to him as well. Small towns he clearly lacked cut through on but his camapign and manifesto seemed to get to the northern working class so my feeling he would lose them back then seemed very wrong.

Agreed on the Lib Dem's rep for local matters favouring them on these kind of elections which might not play out (along with other issues) at general election.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Sun May 05, 2019 12:58 pm

Wow, thanks for the great summary! I’ve learned more about UK politics than I did in all of schooling and university. :lol:

In re-reading the election results, would I be correct in saying that it was more the voters getting rid of poor leadership, and less a sign of whether remain/leave had become more popular?

A right-leaning commentator here in Murica said that this was all a great sign for leavers in the next parliamentary elections. But after reading your summary and the results again, it seems like remainers had the better boost.

Also why is a party named Scottish Nationalists on the remain side?
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Sun May 05, 2019 2:31 pm

The Scottish nationalists leaders' want to be independent of Britain but know that economically they can only afford to do so as part of the EU. Their party is more mixed. A poll I read shortly after the Brexit vote suggested 70% of Scotland voted to Remain, however of the 30% who voted to leave 80+% identified as SNP voters. Interestingly, a fairly high number of those voters also said they cared more about being out of the EU than the UK. Those numbers are approximate as I don't have access to the article any more but I think SNP might pay for their outspokenness in the next election.

That's the debate that is taking place within Labour and the Conservative party at the moment, Jia. Leavers are arguing the point you've made. Remainers however are pointing to the fact that UKIP, the hardest Brexit party who stood, got hammered in these elections (lost 82% of their seats) whereas Lib Dems and Greens the two outspoken remain parties did really well. Now it is a bit more nuanced than those numbers suggest, as UKIP stood in less seats then last time round, even so it was a bad day for them.

My reading is that in this election Remainers came out in force and voted to try and make their point. However lots of Brixeteers stayed away as they feet disillusioned. In their opinion, their referendum vote has been ignored and so they don't feel like there is any point voting. Now my only evidence for this is anecdote, but I know of several people who have expressed this view.

However I suspect Farage will be able to whip the passion of the Brixiteer vote and get them out in force for the European elections. Therefore I think they'll be a better indication of what the country is really feeling. Although my instinct is that the mood has tipped slightly towards remain.

Dong Zhou wrote:
I do agree Corbyn's main appeal is to, as it were, the metropolitan and the young but the general election did see the northern heartlands rally to him as well. Small towns he clearly lacked cut through on but his camapign and manifesto seemed to get to the northern working class so my feeling he would lose them back then seemed very wrong.


All fair points, and perhaps I'm wrong. That Corbyn is pro-Brexit does help in his appeal to those heartlands.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun May 05, 2019 4:53 pm

news
-May reaches out to Corbyn.A lot of attention on attempts to stop May/Corbyn deal, Farage calling it a coalition against the people, eyes on rumours that May will offer a temporary customs deal till next election which Brady has warned will split the Tories, IDS says May lacks legitimacy to make any such deal as local elections show she is just a caretaker now. Davies calls it a pact with the devil and would not respect referendum result which would lead to collapse of party, Hunt says there is a glimmer of hope but custom union isn't long term answer

-Williamson says sacking is a slap-dash witch-hunt and he wants criminal investigation to help clear his name but Met Police has says it doesn't warrant such inquiry

-Davidson's rehearsal for conference speech accidentality broadcast

-IDS says if May doesn't announce departure date then 1922 Committee should act

-Papers believe May and Corbyn will agree deal this week, they aren't so convinced MP's will pass it. They also reporting that there will be attempts to replace May which one suspects would make Labour reluctant to do deal. Amazingly Mail, having exclusive letter from May, go with front page bashing Emma Thompson for flying to climate change protests and back from LA

-Hammond meeting union leaders with heavy rumours he has major plans on low pay

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-Janet Street-Porter says companies and governments being hypocritical and cowardly to shift climate change reform onto public rather then do it themselves

-Rawnsley both big parties are in trouble

Jia Nanfeng wrote:Wow, thanks for the great summary! I’ve learned more about UK politics than I did in all of schooling and university. :lol:

In re-reading the election results, would I be correct in saying that it was more the voters getting rid of poor leadership, and less a sign of whether remain/leave had become more popular?

A right-leaning commentator here in Murica said that this was all a great sign for leavers in the next parliamentary elections. But after reading your summary and the results again, it seems like remainers had the better boost.

Also why is a party named Scottish Nationalists on the remain side?


Now for the easier task, explaining quantum mechanics :P

I think that is correct. Brexit is clearly part of it and plays part into the the "I hate both parties", there was increasing distrust of politics before referendum and "the Westminster class" not managing to deliver Brexit after three years has not done anything for that trust. Add local issues that can always impact things in council elections, one or two parties not being in play yet, that protest voters don't always vote based on what matters to the party they are voting for (I suspect a few Brexiteers voted Lib Dems if it meant ousting the major party at council level) but what will send a protest signal. I would indeed use this more as a general sign of discontent and parties/journalists will look for election trends (with Brexit trends part of that).

The Europe elections in a month will more be used as to where the country stands, Remain/Second referendum or Brexit, I suspect a higher turn out and less spoiled ballots for that one and I still favour Brexit to win that.

It was more of a boost to Remain then Brexit but only small one, Brexiteer parties had difficult circumstances and they had reason to be content given circumstances. Remain did get that boost in terms of moral, momentum/credibility/narrative, boots on ground before MEP elections. In terms of general election, I would say Lib Dems (the coalition backlash is over) and Greens (climate change, more people willing to give them a look) got important boosts but not in a Remain way, they just happen to be Remain parties.

Sun Fin is right on the SNP. A big part of their activist base are Brexiteers, after all logical you want out of one union then you want out of the other union. The party leadership is pro Remain as 1) they see EU as a shield against Westminster, the monetary need and a great potential wedge with England, 2) they see themselves as internationalist, liberal centrists with EU as part of that 3) it is part of their "independent but the same. We keep the pound, the queen, EU" pitch and they know Scotland is Remain so don't want to spook them. "They promised you would stay in EU if you stayed in UK and that independence would risk EU membership. Well you voted Remain and they are taking you out, independence will keep you in" and is a narrative SNP are using hard

The activist base are not going to fight their leaders on this unlike Tories and Labour as they see the tactical sense and the party leadership has enough goodwill in bank for leading them to power and to being close to independence, they aren't going to rock the boat on Brexit.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon May 06, 2019 4:35 pm

-BBC on N.Ireland local results

-Times saying 100 Tory MP's saying they would block a softer Brexit, guardian saying Labour MP's will oppose any deal without a referendum, press sense talks are close but MP's are a problem

-McDonnell says Labour don't trust May as details of talks leak and that is has jeopardised the talks, probably a bad time for Labour to make that argument. Rory Stewart says Tories may have to take some short term pain to get Brexit through, Watson says Labour right to be in talks but warns MP's and members won't back without referendum

-D'Arcy's Week Ahead

-Commons Scottish Affairs Committee looking at drug problem in Scotland

-Presiding Officer Elin Jones wants Welsh Assembly to consider holding sessions outside of Cardiff

-Skidmore condemns universities use of NDA's as gagging clauses

-DUP amidst row when assembly member Jim Wells complains at DUP having a homosexual councillor as shocking and questioning if it fits DUP values

-Buffet feels Brexit is a mistake but he still wants to invest in UK, Morgan if Tories want to prevent deal with Labour then get May's deal through Commons

====

-BBC with some little stories from local elections

-D'Ancona warns joint deal will go down very badly

-Matthew Norman on a horrific prison system
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue May 07, 2019 6:38 pm

-Papers either on the baby or animal extension concerns

-May meeting Sir Brady today with lots of eyes on that, nothing leaked out yet

-Government signs £160 million worth of new contracts with consultants over Brexit, Sir Stramer says Labour demands haven't changed (is a sense Labour frontbench are scrambling to soothe Labour members after Corbyn's recent indications of needing to get deal done), Hunt says he is still sceptical long term about customs union but people expect a compromise from both sides. Hammond says Europe has divided Tories for 45 years but wider issues unite them and expects difficult MEP elections, Gwynne says referendum was difficult sell to Labour Leavers on doorstep, Lidlington says government deadline for deal is now 2nd July to avoid UK MEP's taking seats and fallback is summer recess. Junker regrets not taking part in Brexit referendum to counter Brexiteer untruths (I think that would have badly backfired) and says everybody understands English but nobody understands England and remarks “I don’t get the impression that the UK is very accommodating in terms of deadlines.”, Sir Stramer says talks have reached crunch time

-Hinds looking at how to ensure schools are responsible for educational performance of pupils they exclude

-Gove says not yet time to ban important of trophy hunts after advice from charities but thinks time will come

-Noted Hunt and Raab had photo's with their wives in press this weekend as building future leadership hopes, Stewart promises leadership hopes won't interfere with his Dfid work

-Two peer ministers resign for unknown personal reasons, trade minister Baroness Fairhead and whip Barness Manzoor

-McDonnell says people now acknowledge mean tested systems are degrading and dehumanising, universal basic income is a pragmatic idea that he is looking into

-Equality and Human Rights Commission wants age of criminal responsibly raised significantly from above 10-11 as now to more Europe level

-Foreign office reviewing how they handled the case of Matthew Hedges

-Government officially confirms MEP elections are going ahead

-Police investigating Carl Benjamin with Phillips saying she is getting harassed by others over his rape "joke"

====

-Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the 1922 committee, calls for a roadmap for May's departure, Sir Cash wants May to resign, Brexit party will demand being part of negotiating team if they win MEP elections and want a WTO Brexit which they would see winning MEP elections as endorsement of it. Farage says Brexit party looking for general election candidates and will have one in Peterborough as they prepare for long haul, some Tory donors are prepared to defect, sarcastic at BBC covering his speech, going as MEP candidate first so he can help newer MEP's integrate and understand Brussels but will run for MP sooner rather then later, failure to get proper Brexit would see Brexit far outdo UKIP had done under him at general election. Onwurah Labour need to be tough in Brexit talks and have second referendum, Sir Walker says chances of Tories uniting behind May's deal is one in five on a good day and Labour won't help, Kawczynski thinks second referendum is inevitable if Commons can't agree a deal which he blames on ERG

-Bradley fan of McVey and thinks next leader should be someone outside cabinet who have lost trust of public

-Ed Miliband backs Universal Income as giving people freedom and security, gives workers power and ability to say no, rewrite welfare system and lavishes praise on McDonnell for showing imagination and willingness to think big, critics of the idea need to come up with their own big ideas to fix the system rather then just complain

-Lib Dems say membership has gone up two thousand+ since local elections

====

-Dominic Lawson questions Labour's Brexit policy

-Tom Kibasi referendum is only for Labour to "move on" from Brexit

-Kuessenberg state of talks as if this morning

-Carswell what May's successor should do
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed May 08, 2019 6:13 pm

-Long-Bailey says talks were constructive, detailed and worth doing but government refusing to compromise, Dr Fox says being in custom union would make UK markets a commodity for EU to use in trade deals, mockery in Scotland as Scottish Tory election letter mentions independence 15 times, Brexit once and Brussels zero while Ruth Davidson in it admitting some Scottish Tories may not be inclined to vote for them this time (polls for Scottsh Tories in MEP elections are bad so "don't allow SNP victory they can use to push for independence" seems to be her desperate card)

-European Commission predicts 1.3% growth for UK which points us joint bottom 4 with France

-Stewart argues he is most experience Dfid sectary every as held every junior post in department to go with his work in area before becoming MP, praises Morduant for how quickly she moved on sex scandals and transformed department in 15 months

-MP's concerned at Bombardier leaving N.Ireland

-Papers on Tory meltdown, MEP elections being confirmed, Carl Benjamin being investigated

-Video has emerged a month after the original Carl Benajmin rape "joke" where he said "There's been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or would not even rape Jess Phillips... I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let's be honest, nobody's got that much beer.", Phillips says she broke down in public when she heard about that video. UKIP on investigation into Carl Bejamin "The year is 2019, jokes you'd hear down the pub are now worthy of police investigation." Jess Philips wants a ban on those who promote sexual violence from public office

-Court orders Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority to reveal 377 MP's have had parliamentary credit cards suspended

-Prince Charles, in visit to Germany, says German is our natural partner and bonds must endure after Brexit

-Leadsom says she is seriously considering running for leadership when May goes, struggled with May's deal but it is tolerable and does deliver Brexit, we would survive and then thrive if no deal, a determined Brexiteer (like who I wonder) might have got Brexit through by now but we are a divided country

-Sparsely attended PMQ's again, Jenkyns calls for May to go has been well noted, Dr Lewis backs Williamson

-Pompeo says relationship between US and UK is thriving, they want Brexit resolved soon so they can trust trade talks with UK, disgusting to see leaders in UK and US that support Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, hints Huawei could impact intelligence sharing and wonders if Thatcher would ever have allowed such a thing, expects UK to take back Isis fighters of British nationality. Dr Fox sympathetic to USA's anger with China but warns they can't just rip up international trade rulebook

-Was expected May would set out timetable today but she is to have meeting with 1922 committee about her future next week

-Met police admit substitutional rise in threats against MP's with Brexit being a driving force, about equal in terms of if threatened MP's were pro Remain or Brexit

=====

-Sweeney on immigration status of Commonwealth soldiers

-Halfon unhappy at local elections and timing of Williamson sacking

-Alex Cunningham carbon capture storage

-Charles Walker says there is blame displacement being put on May for parties wider problems, Burt says May should see out first phase of Brexit, Stephen Kinnock says only Tusk and four countries (Poland, Ireland, Hungary and Portugal) want UK to stay and even if we voted Remain we might not be welcomed back

-Greens launch their MEP elections, Bartley says they want carbon free country by 2030 with investment on HS2 used on things like local transport to get people out of cars instead, people know Greens right on austerity, inequality and climate change with a vote leading to actual action, proportional representation allow certain freedom for remain parties not to worry about eating into each other vote. Caroline Lucas says most hope they have had and they are the biggest most united Remain party, Green wave sweeping country

-ChangeUK let their old twitter handle go and a smart Brexiteers has taken it over for very Brexity articles

-UKIP leader Batten to stand down on June2nd so there can be leadership contest (had promised he would do so after year because hadn't been proper contest last time due to emergency circumstances, got extended due to elections)

====

-Professor Matthew Flinders legals of expenses scandal seven years on

-Behr on Corbyn's Brexit struggles

-Kuessenberg Brexit talks

-Felicity Evans on attitudes to Welsh Assembly

-Grice Corbyn has little reason to agree deal with May
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