UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:35 pm

-Harman and Ken Clarke call for conference to discuss abuse with Harman saying there was much hand-wringing but little done, we are at risk of drifting into dangerous territory, has had death threats for years but feared reporting it

-Apparently points of order against Bercow lasted over an hour leading Heidi Allen to say it meant parliament seem out of touch and MP's should act like public servants with Brexit deadline looming, Blunt outright calls Bercow biased

-ERG openly saying the new compromises will sway a few but not enough to change vote or calculations

-Forced Marriage Unit to drop charges

-Not sure which way Mail leans on Bercow "This egotistical preening popinjay has shamelessly put his anti-Brexit bias before the national interest - and is a disgrace to his office.", Sun calls him Speaker of Devil and seeking to scrap Brexit, Express calls him unfit for office, even more sympathetic papers consider Bercow to have destroyed the rulebook. Papers also feeling May is losing control of Brexit and that May will offer workers right promises to Labour MP's

-Greg Clark warns business is shaken by recent Brexit debates and baffled by idea we would take to WTO terms. Later he says government will back workers rights amendment as a cross party thing (Labour saying it can't be trusted despite being a Labour backbench amendment by Mann, unions point out it lacks force), backs indicative votes

-Corbyn says most democratic way of solving Brexit deadlock is a general election, government that can't get business through house is no government at all, real divide isn't remain vs Leave but the many vs the few as the struggles in both leave and remain areas are the same for many (in an otherwise "what we already knew" speech, it was an interesting segment), will no confidence if no election at best time for a chance to win (not committing to if May loses Brexit vote), need a customs union, would match EU on worker rights, would extend article 50. Press get impression he doesn't want second referendum

-May meets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who praises May's deal and says whole world hopes UK avoids no deal

-Foster says May's deal is already dead and May is not listening to others, been wasting time since November

-Watson says when not if they seek no confidence vote

-Leadsom says failure to leave on time will be a betrayal of voters, Bercow's decision was unprecedented and extremely damaging for government business, accuses Bercow of arbitrary changing rules which Bercow denies

-Mary Lou McDonald urges EU and Ireland not to blink on backstop

-John Lewis might not pay bonus for first time since 1953 (rationing was ongoing at time) with retail industry Christmas results worst since 2008 crash, car firms announcing job cuts

-Business Committee wants a probe into Provident Financial's Christmas advert

-Environmental Audit Committee wants a Minister for Hunger

-Corbyn has asked about Brexit more then 40% of times at PMQ's in 2018 and only twice international affairs (Saudi Arabia)

-While Craig Mackinlay has been cleared, activist Marion Little was found guilty on two counts and given suspended sentence due to personal circumstances, Tories feel electoral law on such matters needs urgent reform and case has gone on too long (Mackinlay has had this hanging over him for three years including an election), Farage feels it shows big parties can get away with anything electorally.

-Downing Street says plan B, under Grieve plan, would get only 90 minute debate and one amendment, suspect that won't go down well

-Conveny denies his comments count as interfering in UK politics, he is just being a candid friend, he isn't anti-British but has obligation to find solution to keep peace between two nations and that requires dealing with those misrepresenting what deal means for N.Ireland

-Ford warns job cuts will be even worse if no deal Brexit, Jaguar saying stockpiles only last for days, Honda says it will halt production for six days after Brexit

-Nicola Blackwood to be ennobled and made health minister, a job she held before losing seat

-Freeman seems to be first Tory to switch to backing May's deal, doing so with a heavy heart. Welcome for May but she needs a lot more then that and he is a bit of switcher. Trudy Harrison followed

-May rumoured to be ringing up union leaders to discuss that

-British Lamb and beef can be exported to Japan for first time since 96

-In a major blow to May, former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and formr head of the army Field Marshal Lord Guthrie have written to say her deal threatens national security an claim civil service is fully prepared for WTO

-Gove exploits Gardiner once claiming Labour's six texts on Brexit were bollocks "I have to say that the shadow international trade secretary is a jewel and an ornament to the Labour front bench. He speaks the truth with perfect clarity, and in his description of Labour’s own policy can I say across the House we’re grateful to him, grateful to the constant Gardiner for the way in which he has cast light on the testicular nature of Labour’s position."

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-Kevin Schofield tweeted "At Theresa May’s Downing St drinks tonight to woo Tory MPs over her Brexit deal, Tracey Crouch talked about football for most of it and then left early to go to the gym. Maybe they should make her sports minister."

-Freeman says Corbyn is "a Brexiteer up north and a Remainer down south".

-Rory Stewart says Grieve amendment gives unreasonable time-frame for EU talks and is just trying to get second referendum

-Sir Soames says May should have reached out to Labour sooner (I suspect a fair few ministers agree, Labour MP's seem.. frustrated that they have not been talked to)

-Mann welcomes May accepted his amendment but says unlikely backbenchers like him will vote for May's deal on Tuesday, this can only be start of process (that should have happened awhile ago) and other concerns need addressing.

=====

-Iain Watson on Labour members thoughts on Labour Brexit strategy

-Daniel Finkelstein (sun) Cooper's amendment was reckless and pointless

-Mark Wallace fears the damage Bercow has done to Parliament
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:36 pm

-Gove admits government set to lose and if no deal, we would prosper eventually but the facts show there would be major econimic turbulence

-Lord's half term break may be reduced to long weekend to deal with Brexit statutory instruments

-Papers focus on May talking to union chiefs and Jaguar job cuts, Evening Standard says there may be Brexit delay simply to pass the bills required

-Benefits only covering first two children being applied retrospectively dropped with Rudd hinting at benefit freeze ending which Field has welcomed

-Williamson says airports can't keep expecting RAF to help with drones but government is ensuring airports and other key places have anti-drone defences in place

-Sturgeon conspiring against Salmond after the former First Minister claimed some are trying to bring him down

-Bercow rebukes Rudd for announcing Universal Credit police outside of Parliament

-Hunt thinks Commons votes this week makes Remain more likely which would have severe consequences for UK democracy, Bercow is actively acting against government, doubts parliament will allow a no deal Brexit

-Rudd avoids answering if she would resign rather then no deal

-Nov growth of 0.3%

-Juncker says no deal would be a catastrophe

-Stormont admits to plans for fuel rationing but says this is normal,, not Brexit related

===

-CBI fears UK economy would shrink up to 8% if no deal

-Jo Stevens left shouldn't choose Norway plus

-Rees-Mogg says he disagrees with Bercow's decision, feels it is going to make parliamentary business more difficult but defends Bercow as fair and a good speaker who wasn't making a plot

-Heidi Allen calls Rudd reforms not enough for her change mind but incredibly good start

-Sir Soames backing deal as public fed up and voting it down will create chaos

-McCluskey say May's phone call was first time he has spoken to her and had never spoken to Cameron

-Caroline Lucas thanks Brexit voters for giving establishment a well deserved kicking and they had a valid point, a good reason to be angry at the system, Remain's failure to make case for free movement was a moral failure and next time they must offer hope with a new tone, parliament should move out of London, wants citizen assemblies.

-Morgan says May must decide if to continue to woo hardliners DUP and on her backbenchers or reach out cross party

-Sir Grieve compares Brexit to a national suicide

-Fitzpatrick says close to backing May's deal

====

-Kuessenberg many twists and turns yet for Brexit vote

-Nick Triggle on Lansley NHS reforms could be dead

-Behr on control of Brexit slipping from May's hands

-Tom Pashby reform rather then abolish Lords

-Henry Hill defends government from accusations of constitutional outrage
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:04 pm

-Steffan Lewis, the Plaid Cymru AM for South Wales East, has died, of cancer at the age of 34. Well liked and seen as a big talent having address Plaid conference at 97, was Leanne Wood's speech writer, his suggesting of enshrining EU law into Welsh law during Brexit row became policy and a negotiating hand for Welsh government

-You know it has been a weird week when chief whip has been at dispatch box

-Hollyrood providing sign interpretation for First Minister Questions, people reminded to keep questions concise

-Grayling warns Brexit not happening will lead to rise of far right, people would feel angry and cheated, becoming less tolerant and more nationalistic

-Rory Stewart wants an end to any prison sentence below six months, knows he faces backlash but has to make the argument to public

-Hunt says Remain would damage reputation abroad

-Universal Credit to go to main carer and system to ensure landlords can have housing benefit going directly to them

-Security to be increased before Brexit vote but annual pancake race has been cancelled

-D'Arcy on week ahead. Probably a minor quiet week

-Rudd wants cuts to earning taper, is wrong to criticize Speaker

-Independent review says Greens need to urgently look at their safeguarding policies and priorities seemed to be more about communication and reputation rather then protection of others

-BBC doing evening political programs this week

===

-Onasanya yet to speak or vote in Commons this year

-Sir Soames says extending article 50 would be wrong and bring parliament in contempt of public

-Sir Grieve says EU may be willing to extend article 50 but under limited circumstances

====

-Shane Harrison on Irish preparation for no deal

-Joey D'Urso on which words have fallen out of favour with MP's and which have come in
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:14 pm

-Sunday Times saying Downing Street has discovered plot of senior MP's to seize control after Brexit vote (Julian Smith apparently overheard someone talking about it) by ensuring backbench motons took precent over government ones, Sunday Telegraph says Tories are split between those who feel a softer Brexit is needed to get through house and those who feel this betrays Brexit, Mail on Sunday says Bercow and Sir Grieve met before amendment, Sun on Sunday wonders what is taking so long (isn't paper supposed to inform it's readers?) and says May has frittered away golden opportunity of last two years by election defeat and failing to properly prepare for no deal, Observer says Corbyn has ordered every Labour MP to be ready for no confidence vote after Brexit once

-May warns failure to deliver Brexit would be a catastrophic breach of trust

-McDonnell says austerity is tearing apart the fabric of society, no confidence vote will be done when time is right

-Trade Committee says there is a lot of unanswered questions about deal with Swiss

-Yellow vests being adopted by protestors here

-As Paul Mason points out, no EU gambit to help May announced or "floated" today, with 48 hours needed to bed down, which suggests no cavalry coming

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-Lord Kerr calls for second referendum

-Baroness Brady (sun) on abuse and defending her work as peer then goes onto general stories

-Sir Major urges a second referendum and remarks of no deal "jumping off a cliff has never had a happy ending".

-Lord Hattersley backs second referendum, doubts general election will happen

-Soubry accusing Downing Street of fake news and nasty briefings against Grieve

=====

-Peter Hitchens wants to boycott second referendum, also discusses us being in Syria, grammar schools, election scandal and more

-Nick Cohen urges Remainers not to fall into fatalism

-Kenan Malik on a divided nation

-Forsyth (sun) if Brexit deal fails then Brexit may bw weakened, rages against Corbyn, tensions with Javid, Bercow may lose authority
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:44 pm

-Tory whip Gareth Johnson resigns over May deal, always embarrassing to lose a whip though even Tom Watson admitted he had to google the chap. 13 Tories resigned over Brexit since May took over

-Corbyn coy about when no confidence vote would happen other then soon and if Labour would go into election promising to carry out Brexit, says EU is well know for flexibility and he expects them to allow Corbyn to have a say in their trade deals and be part of a customs union with the red lines of EU will change, would rather get a negotiated deal then second referendum, economy and public services rely on people coming here, dodges around free movement. Bercow is a very good Speaker and treatment gotten in last week by some is disgraceful, later says the assurances from EU are just warm words.

-Barclay sense MP's moving towards May deal but will be tough and points out some condemned deal before they had time to read it, dodges around if there is a plan B, Jaguar cuts is not due to Brexit but to wider global issues in car industry, surprised by Bercow decision but will work with rules set by chair, Brexiteers seeking ideologically pure Brexit risk no Brexit

-Grayling says he would have happily taken May's deal if offered it in 2016, timetable fiasco has been hugely frustrating and will ensure customers are compensated fully, world airports are consulting UK about how to handle drones at airports

-Mann indicates he will vote for deal (due to promises on workers rights) as does Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (due to Bercow and Remainer MP's plot), Sir Leigh (too risky not to vote for it as a Brexiteer), Andrew Murrison, Sir Barron

-May says Remain is more likely then no deal, warns parliament by asking them to think of how Scotland and Wales would have acted if Westminster had failed to respect the devolution referendum (it has been pointed out that May, along with other Tories, refused to accept the result and even in 2005 the Tories wanted a second referendum on it) so has amended her speech, admits EU rejected demand for fixed end to backstop and it won't convince some MP's, says no deal would change everyday life in N.Ireland (DUP question how), being noted May isn't quite ruling out extending article 50

-Have a guess what press is focused on but outside that, Telegraph condemns Foreign Office handling of Zaghari-Ratcliffe case

-Draft legislation for second referendum been published by group of MP's

-Government publishes Clean Air strategy

-Hunt condemns Iran for putting Zaghari-Ratcliffe for putting her in position where she feels huger strike is best route forward

-Bradley fears constitutional damage caused by no deal and warns those who voted against Brexit may be deeply unhappy with a no deal Brexit

-Sturgeon refers herself to Standards committee over her handling of Salmond case, Scottish Labour and Tories wants a full Holyrood inquiry

-Dr Fox admits they are unlikely to win tomorrow night, no deal would be survivable though damaging to economy and better then cancelling Brexit, has been EU assurances given

-There is a plan from some MP's that would see Liaison Committee take control of Brexit process if May fails to find compromise within three weeks. Slight problem, they didn't check with Dr Wollostan the Committee chair and she is not a fan, nor are other Committee chairs. Kinnock says plan got leaked before they could be consulted

-McDonnell asks Benn to withdraw his amendment and the select committee chair is under some pressure to withdraw it to allow a "clean" vote on May's deal

-Tusk and Juncker says technological solutions to avoid backstop will be considered, EU would apply trade deal provisionally to avoid backstop while member states vote on it, new relationship won't have to mirror backstop but otherwise same as everyone expected. DUP says it has made them even more concerned about backstop, Attorney General's advice and welcome of changes has been published

-Mel Stride leaves cabinet with papers saying "no food" and "no channel tunnel". Suspicions are he is winding up press

-Unhappiness that Tulip Saddiq is delaying caesaren birth so she can vote, in wheelchair, on Brexit deal because of lack of proxy vote, Bercow has slammed government for failure on this despite Commons voting twice to indicate he wanted a proxy system.

-May and Corbyn addressing their MP's tonight

-Thornberry says May is obliged, by constitutional tradition, to call election if she loses Brexit vote

-McDonnell welcomes parliament taking control from executive

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-Mann expects there will be others to vote for deal but not enough to win (at this point though, May isn't looking for a win but an acceptable defeat she can use), doesn't want to extend article 50

-Sir Cable calls for Corbyn to come off Brexit fence, both parties being too partisan on Brexit

-Mark Francois expects EU to make last minute "apparent concessions" that will turn out to be legally meaningless

-Boles says government failure to reach out to opposition MP's was a gross dereliction of duty

-Sir Grieve says no deal would break up UK which he counts as national suicide as well as hurt to the most vulnerable and econimic hit

-Boris says people will blame deep state if Brexit is blocked and feel betrayed, outright dismisses the idea that head of Jaguar would know more about car manufacturing industry then Boris does and says he told Jaguar head electric cars were future but Jaguar head felt it was diseal

-Felt Paterson was rude and uncompromising to Freeman on DP

-Raab says Labour leadership have “tapped a vein of public support in their accusations of crony capitalism and markets rigged by vested interests", suggests an asbos for business with large fines, it is May deal or no deal and he will back no deal

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-John Harris warns public has switched off on Brexit

-Isabel Hardman Brexit has revealed flaws of leaders, MP's, Parliament and Public

-Roger Bootle no deal only route for real trade

-Paul Goodman says, amidst the rumours and bluff May is failing to get support she needs to win
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:25 pm

-Saddiq going against medical advice to vote. Government should be ashamed of themselves

-I enjoyed Ashworth's amiable talk of spinning on Mon evening Politics Live, he admits they might not win no confidence vote but they have to try as opposition parties have had to before

-Ouch by Bercow "I have no intention of taking lectures in doing right by parliament from people who have been conspicuous in denial of and, sometimes, contempt for it. I will stand up for the rights of the House of Commons and I will not be pushed around by agents of the executive branch." When he called amendments,he refused the Murrison one which some in government wanted as could be used in Brussels (Sir Leigh's chosen amendment can be used but is softer) and refused second amendment one (to relief of many Remainers), Benn pulled his

-Dr Fox says referendum result is a contract with the people, expects soon to sign off half a dozen trade deals

-Gardiner says torn between a second referendum which he feels is patronizing to voters and a Brexit that might harm economy, admits May has shown steel and determination bit it has turned into obstinacy and recklessness

-Neither leader meeting with MP's seems to have gone particularly well

-Dodds says it would be illogical to vote down government and isn't sure what May thinks she is doing by trying to push this deal, DUP won't accept Murrison amendment as enough

-Gove accuses Nick Robinson of smearing him by saying he claimed Letwin was trying to stop Brexit, says if deal isn't voted in then winter is coming, some MP's wish to thwart Brexit, backstop would trap EU and be good for UK

-Papers all on Brexit vote

-Hammond warns nobody will get the exact Brexit they want

-Conveny says Ireland needs to keep nerve and react calmly to events in next few days

-N.Ireland Committee chair Andrew Murrison to back deal even if his amendment to put sunset clause on backstop is defeated

-Government concerned Hitachi is pulling out of Wylfa Newydd nuclear power plant construction

-Barclay won't resign if no deal

-Hollyrood reviewing Scottish defamation rules

-Mundell suggests plan B should be to bring back the deal for Westminster to vote on a second time

-Foster says tonight will be historic for wrong reasons

-German government deny Merkel has offered further help for after May's deal is defeated

-Rees-Mogg refuses to sign ERG letter as it takes harder line then he wants on May's deal

-Nathalie Loiseau, French Europe Minister, says up to UK to have a plan B, not EU

-Cabinet seems to deeply split on if to talk to Labour and indicative votes, down the Remain/soft Brexit vs Hard Brexit lines

-Cox says transition like an airlock that allows system to adapt to huge change, we won't be under ECJ, EU fishermen would be furious if backstop got implemented, not paying EU after no deal is flimsy argument , Brexit deal vote is between order and chaos, article 50 can't be pulled without good reason and buying time won't be accepted by EU.

-Junkcer cancels planned debate and returning to Brussels for emergency EU business tomorrow

-Sir Grieve is getting death threats


-Vote Leave fail with legal challenge over Electoral Commission report

-Someone threatened arson against Nick Boles

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-Sir Swayne jokingly suggests May prorogue Parliament till April

-Bob Neill on why he backs deal

-Blunt says industry will force EU to compromise if deal voted down

-Ken Clarke says Universal Credit designers were too paternalistic though well intentioned, Withdrawal Agreement is harmless and real talks yet to start, those bemoaning backstop are being paranoid about Irish

-DUP David Simpson says his constituents feel like sacrificial lambs to appease Ireland and EU

-Farage admits Brexit MP's have a careful decision to make but feels voting deal down is risk worth taking to try to get a proper Brexit

-Sir Cable says if May lost, Corbyn should move no confidence vote tonight or tomorrow

-Sir Cash says if May loses she should consider her position

-A sense Raab is building up leadership campaign

-Sir Grieve says we have been living in a fools paradise and leaving airlock will choke us to death, quips "Entertaining as it was..it filled me with a slight sense of gloom to see that the government had got to such a pass that it had to rely on the skills of a criminal defence advocate to get it out of its difficulties."

-Julian Lewis manages to keep speech to 18 seconds.

-Philip May and Mayor Khan watch Brexit debate

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-Aditya Chakrabortty says Corbyn has played his hand well but should now back Remain

-Ben Ramanauskas on poor HS2 management

-Kuessenberg on multiple messages to look out for with Brexit vote

-Nicolas Watt feels May misread DUP

-Chris Morris on EU's letter of reassurance

-Laurence Peter on what no deal means for migrants

-McElvoy on start of play going into vote
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:39 pm

Well May's deal was crushed by an even bigger majority than I expected. She is now facing a no confidence vote from the Labour party. The DUP have indicated they will support the PM against the opposition, despite voting against her deal. I suspect May will win the no confidence vote. But what happens then? She isn't open to a referendum or a new election while being adamant Brexit will happen. Supposedly she will try for a softer Brexit but I don't see that coming together, or even having a majority in Parliament. Rather everything seems to be moving ever closer to a No Deal. Which is why I think the DUP and Leave Tory's are happy to support her, a lame duck PM makes it more likely that the default will happen. The default, of course, being that we will leave Europe on 29th March.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:04 am

Sun Fin wrote:Well May's deal was crushed by an even bigger majority than I expected. She is now facing a no confidence vote from the Labour party. The DUP have indicated they will support the PM against the opposition, despite voting against her deal. I suspect May will win the no confidence vote. But what happens then? She isn't open to a referendum or a new election while being adamant Brexit will happen. Supposedly she will try for a softer Brexit but I don't see that coming together, or even having a majority in Parliament. Rather everything seems to be moving ever closer to a No Deal. Which is why I think the DUP and Leave Tory's are happy to support her, a lame duck PM makes it more likely that the default will happen. The default, of course, being that we will leave Europe on 29th March.


Biggest government defeat since 1924, 432vs202 giving the no's a 230 majority with 181 Tories rebelling. May and I also believe she will win no confidence vote and May clearly seeking to force it when Corbyn would have to even if he doesn't want to

May is to talk to opposition parties, I think her best bet is to get Corbyn and co to work quickly with civil service to flesh out Labour's unicorn plan then take Corbyn to Brussels summit. EU would destroy his deal, meanwhile maybe get EEA group formerly veto UK joining then she can turn to Westminster and go "well your two main non deal alternatives have been tried and look where that got you muppets so let us try this again. My deal, the only one you can get or no deal?"

I'm not sure she is willing to go that far, I think talks will founder and her best bet of getting defections is to make major push on Labour backbenches which will infuriate the Brexiteers then pray her backbenches get scared by no deal. I don't think it will be enough, she will lose again.

Remainers are playing a game of chicken and trying to pick right moment for second referendum amendment by driving softer MP's to panic and trying to force Corbyn to back it (which he will do all he can to ensure Labour don't), no dealers are clearly winding down clock. Those two strategies make sense, as does the May deal ones, the rest of those that voted against are being... misguided. I tend to defend Westminster but those going "we oppose no deal but want deal" are making huge misjudgements. Frankly, they are being stupid. You want a deal? Vote for May's, maybe with different red lines it would be different but May's redlines are a reasonable interpretation of the vote and thought she has made some tactical mistakes (not preparing for no deal at start, not reaching out to Labour MP's a long time ago, tone), she has got as good a deal as can be hoped for. EU will not give another at this stage. All the others (those that have a vague plan, other MP's are "I don't know what I want but it isn't that" which is clearly a idiot move given deadline) require EU and EEA to destroy themselves, to ignore what they have said again and again and again which I'm sure won't offend the two more powerful bodies at all! Yelling we don't want no deal doesn't work, no deal is the default, it was always the default

Everyone knows what they don't want, majority of MP's don't know what they want/how to get what they want. Saying just extend article 50 ignores that the EU won't just do it to prevent no deal, they want this over with. For a referendum/election? Fine. 99% there with deal? Fine. UK needing to finish off legislation? Fine. Those have end points. "We haven't decided what we want" is an open ended and potentially long addition to no purpose, they have no reason to agree to that.

Where I disagree with you Sun Fin is the support. Brexiteer MP's tried to oust her and now can't, DUP (who are doing the biggest damage to the union, Sinn Feinn and SNP can only watch in admiration) hate Corbyn, regard confidence as a Tory matter (being seen as overthrowing UK's leader might create backlash) and apparently Foster has a warm relationship with May, they still believe EU will cave. It is the middle rankers who backed May and not the deal that have made a bizarre decision.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:42 pm

-May survives by 19, 325 vs 306, May survives which is unprecedented given scale of defeat last night but such is the times we live in and most saw May surviving. how she plays cards now will be interesting as currently (bar attacking Corbyn as betraying Labour history), she was carefully not ruffling feathers. Seems to be keeping her redlines including no customs union so hard to see how he can compromise and her refusal to discuss with Corbyn has irked people but she has now said she will discuss with Corbyn and other leaders now vote is over, only for Corbyn and Sir Sable to say they only will if she rules out no deal, Blackford only if second referendum and article 50 extension are options.

Siddiq was nodded through on no confidence vote with May personally promising her the vote would be counted through still ridiculous she had to be at the Palace of Westminster rather then in hospital but Corbyn unable to muster Woodcock (who felt he couldn't do anything to bring Corbyn to power) and Lady Hermon while DUP and ERG had said early they would back May. Tom Watson, by being sympathetic and noting her good points while tone of sorrow, with a powerful attack on May while Gove's strong performance did not help May while Tories notably attacking Corbyn's record of national security and division as part of defeating no confidence tactics

=====

-Corbyn called for EU to agree to reopen talks if May's deal failed and a general election would give winner a mandate to unlock EU talks, May stood up to big applause from her ranks, promising to work harder to win over parliament, looking for creative solutions to backstop, Corbyn's cynical handling of Brexit means MP's should feel no loyalty on this issue and should consider their constituents manufacturing jobs. Labour, SNP (to inflict as big a defeat as possible) and Sir Leigh (reassured by May and maybe reading Commons mood) pull their amendments with Sir Baron, despite Commons not being pleased, pushing his amendment forward and lost by 576 (600-24) which may be more about wanting to punish Baron for delaying main vote. There was genuine laughter and the teller was trying not to smile

May lost by 230, 432vs202, biggest defeat since 1924 of a government with 182 rebels with only four Labour joining her deal, a heavy heavy defeat to May despite a heroic, entertaining and blunt in it's criticism of MP's effort from Cox. May has forced Corbyn's hand on no confidence vote (Gardiner warns Labour may lose that and come back with another soon), says if Parliament keeps her then she will talk to opposition parties to try to come to some agreement and take that to EU but fury when came clear she is going around Corbyn and spokesperson says she won't budge on redlines so where will the compromise be? Pound went down on defeat then up at no confidence vote announcement, DUP (with Foster saying defeat has strengthened May's hand in Brussels) and ERG confirms it will back government, McDonnell urged people to contact MP's to get them to back no confidence. Business leaders make clear they are not pleased with MP's with Hammond/Clark/Barclay moving quickly to try to soothe them, SNP are to redouble their no deal preparations for Scotland

EU reaction: Tusk says "If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?", EU's formal reaction is they are preparing for the increasing likelihood of no deal, Junker doubles down on EU's note of regret and hurry up to clarify what you want, EU countries make clear they are... disappointed in UK result, they clearly don't want no deal but they aren't rushing to give us things and UK should say what they would accept an want rather then what they dislike. Won't have a summit this weekend, French Europe minister seems a tad annoyed how much time she has had to spend on Brexit, Barnier says backstop won't be dropped, Conveny says Ireland won't object to article 50 being extended, Barnier says he will reopen talks if May's red lines are weakened

Nandy said May's tone made it easier to vote against her and failure to reach out, no change of approach, nobody should be proud about way they have behaved, Tory vice chair Tom Pursglove resigned to vote against deal, Sir Grieve says deal is bad but no leader could have negotiated a good one and wll bring forward two efforts for second referendum. MP's ignored the no photo's in division lobby's rules (no lobby was really really packed), Boris says defeat gives May bigger mandate in Brussels and should prepare for no deal with more enthusiasm, Professor Bogdanor says no deal is more likely and second referendum would struggle to pass in 40 days left due to Brexiter resistance. Scully jokes at least vote was quick and suspects Corbyn would hand a plan then vote against it, John Delaney first next Presidential candidate to weigh in on Brexit (he thinks it was misold)

====


-Papers are on... have a guess, Sun uses dodo comparisons, Daily Star keeps promise by doing Brexit on page 2.

-Government slips out pension credit changes before Brexit vote

-Upskirting bill just needs Royal Assent and then it is a crime

-Labour fined £12k for failing to declare expenses properly (late and inaccurate) between April-June 2017

-Hinds backs Ofsted inspection reforms, warns if no deal then some of his civil servants will be moved to emergency priorities like food supply

-Carney says markets expect Brexit to be delayed, China's slowdown will hurt UK and Chinese lenders are using similar practises as US lenders before finical crash, is concerned at amount of leveraged loans and concerns at US not requiring banks to have loan securitsation

-Inflation fell last month to 2.1%

-McDonnell says Labour membership would decide if second referendum would be in manifesto, they can compromise with government on Brexit but there is a lack of faith in May, unlikely they will win no confidence vote

-Sturgeon meeting her MP's to discuss tactics, she and Drakeford want an urgent meeting with May, Drakeford says May should resign but if she survives the no confidence vote he will give her chance to see what she brings

-71 Labour MP's says Corbyn's hopes for renegotiation is not realistic, wants second referendum

-Brexit Committee wants indicative votes but is split on the issue

-No confident vote chances had taken blow as Woodcock (who can't bring himself to help Corbyn and McDonnell into office), like Lady Hermon

-Welsh Assembly votes against no deal under any circumstances

====

-Farage says he would rather gamble on losing Brexit then back May's deal it so bad, no deal would see EU industries would force EU to come begging for deal and May should have sent envoys to those industries on day 1. (The car makers and wine markers were always meant to come to our aid, they haven't yet but apparently will do so soon), predicts Parliament will block Brexit, May should have resigned having been so exposed to the world.

-Rees-Mogg says world won't end with no deal, ERG suggests customs facilitation agreement rather then backstop and a take it or leave it offer to EU

-Lord Mandelson says he takes it for granted EU will extend article 50

-Huq accidentally tweets out "R ev dewcwx" She speaks for us all

-Cameron backs May in her efforts, doesn't regret giving people a say but regrets country is finding it difficult implementing the result he campaigned against

-Nick Boles blames May

-Liz Saville Roberts on May's Wales error

-Soubry would put stopping no deal Brexit over saving government

-Tony Abbott, former Australia PM, asks what is wrong with no deal

-SDLP condemns sister party Labour's Brexit stance and says Labour's would require backstop

-Lord Lamont says a Brexit seeking to win over Labour MP's would split Tory party

=====

-Freedland on how we got here

-Katya Adler EU reaction

-Jane Merrick says May should resign

-Neil McCulloch warns referendum vote system could change result of referendum

-Sam Coates on Labour Brexit stance evolving
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:05 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:Where I disagree with you Sun Fin is the support. Brexiteer MP's tried to oust her and now can't, DUP (who are doing the biggest damage to the union, Sinn Feinn and SNP can only watch in admiration) hate Corbyn, regard confidence as a Tory matter (being seen as overthrowing UK's leader might create backlash) and apparently Foster has a warm relationship with May, they still believe EU will cave. It is the middle rankers who backed May and not the deal that have made a bizarre decision.


I think there is truth in what you said. Ultimately I don't see Corbyn as being any better than what we have currently. But I also think that a lame duck PM helps the No Deal Brexit advocates more than anyone else.

Dong Zhou wrote:-May survives by 19, 325 vs 306, May survives which is unprecedented given scale of defeat last night but such is the times we live in and most saw May surviving. how she plays cards now will be interesting as currently (bar attacking Corbyn as betraying Labour history), she was carefully not ruffling feathers. Seems to be keeping her redlines including no customs union so hard to see how he can compromise and her refusal to discuss with Corbyn has irked people but she has now said she will discuss with Corbyn and other leaders now vote is over, only for Corbyn and Sir Sable to say they only will if she rules out no deal, Blackford only if second referendum and article 50 extension are options.


Gah. Corbyn clearly doesn't want to negotiate with the Tories at all. He is playing games with all of our lives. Off course I suspect he thinks the best solution is May taking us into a No Deal Brexit so the Tories carry the blame and then he can come in after and do all the things he wants to do. You just can't take No Deal off the table, it's impossible because that is the default currently. You can promise a vote to relinquish article 50 deadline day I suppose but even then there is no guarantee that will win a vote. It will also fundamentally weaken the hand when negotiating with the EU.
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