UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:21 pm

Jia Nanfeng wrote:And I thought Murican government processes were confusing. :shock:

There's barely any news sources here discussing it outside of what amounts to "It's happening but we dunno what it is." :lol:


:lol:

We often feel the same way about your politics. Also I just edited my post fleshing it out somewhat if you wanted a bit more commentary alongside the dry facts!
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:23 pm

Yeah I just saw the edit. Thanks, you answered my question well. :mrgreen:
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:06 pm

May won 200 -117.

Essentially this changed very little. May had a decent majority so won't resign. The optimum result for May would have been a much larger majority that sees the hard Brexiters punished. Instead 117 MPs voting against her (more than I expected) leaves the hard Brexiters in a reasonably strong position. May is Prime Minister but it's been made even clearer that she can't get her deal through the House.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:23 am

My reading, bad for all.

May win and comfortably enough, can't be challenged for a year but still was a large revolt against her. She is strengthened in respect she has won but she had to make concessions (ones she may be able to wiggle out of), numbers suggest she can't get deal through, media think it was bad and EU won't be confident in May's chances.

Bad for Brexiteers becuase that was their shot and they missed while there seems to be splits on what to do, some accept with good grace, some less so and Rees-Mogg arguing he accepts result so May should resign because she only won from shills (he is backtracking somewhat on that now but it is how it read and may earn a lot of ill-will). They also seem to have annoyed media allies and MP's by the timing of it, they sought to tap into genuine anger with May but when it happened, people felt it was self indulgent power play.

Bad for Brexit/country has nothing has changed bar everyone being a bit weaker though, as seems to be a habit with May on this sort of thing, she managed to prevent even worse self-inflicted disaster on the nation.

Jia Nanfeng wrote:And I thought Murican government processes were confusing. :shock:

There's barely any news sources here discussing it outside of what amounts to "It's happening but we dunno what it is." :lol:

I await the reactions from Mr. Dong and Mr. Sun.


In terms of why this happened, May's deal pleased nobody other then businesses: Remainers and soft Brexiteers unhappy that it would be economic hit so either want second referendum or to force Norway to accept us joining their group (they tend to ignore Norway going "no way in hell are we letting you in"), hard Brexiteers wanted no deal or Canada plus so May's plan is to close to EU for them (and any flaws pointed out is scaremongering by evil economists, experts, civil service, head of N.Ireland's police...) and they feel she has been too timid and is even against Brexit, public want May to lead Brexit talks but don't like her deal becuase the public attitude seems to akways be as unhelpful as possible when it comes to Brexit. The potential never-ending backstop was a big problem for her MP's and for her confidence partners the DUP (who don't seem to have thought through what Brexit means for N.Ireland) who dislike being separate from UK mainland on issues... other then homosexuality and other issues DUP want to be separate on.

May made it worse in last few weeks by trying to go around Commons demand for legal advice to be published and government was found in contempt. Then after three or so days of Brexit debate and promising not to do this, she pulled the Brexit deal. The handling of all this angered even normally loyal figures who felt May's handling had been a shambles so her hard Brexit opponents sensed the chance was now to axe her and make it 3 Tory PM's in a row destroyed by them then onto the glorious Brexit they imagine in their heads.

=====

Sun Fin was, as ever, correct, on what would have happened.

Graham Brady, who would have run the MP's vote, says he could get it down to ten days. This would have meant (as last leadership election was after Cameron decided to resign on Brexit meant hole needing filling quickly) yet another no chance for the long shots on rising young things. Brexiteer thinkers like Steve Baker did indeed want a unity Brexiteer candidate with the big beasts to decide amongst themselves but I share Sun Fin's scepticism that would have worked due to ego's, ambitions (this might be their one shot) and genuine disagreement. There is no easy unity candidate (Rudd is popular with MP's but she has a very small majority in her seat which makes her extremely vulnerable, Remainer so activists will vote her down for the Brexit candidate and she might still be damaged by Windrush) for the party itself either with most candidates being hated by sectors of MP's (and in Boris case, loved by activists so would win if he gets onto final two but really really really hated by a lot of MP's, just want to make clear the Boris divide). The members vote and how long that takes... Christmas and New Year means a delay of a few weeks as it is and these need at least a month or two, could easily have missed key Brexit deadlines.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:27 pm

Alistair Burt surely speaking for the nation on the Brexit wing "They never, ever stop. Votes against them, letters going in late- nothing matters to ERG. After the apocalypse, all that will be left will be ants and Tory MPs complaining about Europe and their leader."
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:27 pm

-For May: 117 is worse then Major got (or percentage of 63% vs 66%) and that crippled him though that was a leadership election whereas this is a "confidence, yay or nay", it is a fairly sizeable revolt but 200 is one more then she got when she ran for leadership which is a line they will push. May says she will listen to those who voted against her but she will get on with the job. Is a feeling this isn't a great result for May

For rebels:Brexiteers were expectation management of 86 and they got out the "only got the ones on payroll" out before results came in, they are clearly trying to build the argument that those who voted for May are shills and dishonourable and that over a third voting against May is significant.

Rees-Mogg says he accepts the results but May should resign as she can't get her deal through Commons and majority of those not on her payroll voted against her (he is now seeking to clarify he isn't accusing them of voting for the money but simply by taking the post they are obliged to back May or resign but I think damage is done), she should act like Thatcher who resigned rather then Major who led party to heavy defeat (not that Brexiteers actions had anything to do with that...), lose backstop and he will back deal.

She did win more then the referendum so using Rees-Mogg's logic I'm glad to say we can now accept the result and demand we Remain. However plenty of ERG hardliners and prominant rebels have said outright time to unite behind May, they may disagree with others but they accept result. Brexiteers may be splitting on this

Was 100% turnout, journalists (whose sweepstakes under-predicted opposition numbers) knew before announcement because of the reaction, May loyalists very happy and chatty, hardcore rebels looking grim. Also the chief whip and May's PPS smiling.

-BBC with a list of those who said which way they would vote

=====

-Foster says backstop needs fundamental legal change

-Corbyn calls for Brexit vote next week

-Well done Lord Foulkes for getting May question in during Housing

-Opposition parties calling May fatally undermined with no chance of getting deal through

-Some papers demanding MP's fall into line behind May but most calling it a pyrrhic/badly wounding victory, Sun (having called victim of racism Sterling brainless for making point about media racist coverage) demanding May does not soften Brexit, Mail appeals for civil war to stop.

-McDonnell tweets "Shocking result for Theresa May. Even having offered to go before the next general election she still has a huge 117 Tory MPs, a third of her party, voting against her and not having confidence in her. Wow." Is being reminded Corbyn lost 80% when he faced no confidence vote

-Markets pleased at win, less pleased when they realized scale

-ERG and DUP seen as backing proposal for ten-year "extendable backstop" and scrapping the UK-wide single customs territory.

-Brady remarks he had been tempted to smash his phone when speculation was at it's height

-Drakeford (unsurprisingly) confirmed as First Minister

-Barclay says Hammond was wrong to use the term extremists, is movement by EU but all potential deals require a backstop and there is a risk May's gains from EU could be lost by trying to alter backstop

-Supreme Court rules Hollyrood's Brexit bill goes beyond Hollyrood's powers as they can't veto Westminster

-I think Brexiteers are rather twisting Hammond's extremist comments, he was saying it of certain backbenchers, not all Brexiteers

-Tusk says he will have last minute meeting with May before summit while May also met Vardaker Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg

-Brexit debate confirmed as January bar a Brussels breakthrough

-Bundestag votes for no renegotiation of deal. Brexiteers will be puzzled as to why car manufacturers aren't protesting on streets yet

-May firms up leaving before election but is playing down leaving soon after Brexit day, not expecting breakthrough this week at summit, heard MP's concerns on backstop

-Juha Sipilä, the prime minister of Finland, warns legal reassurances on backstop will be difficult while EU leaders again and again saying it can't be rengioated but maybe some clarity given, Chancellor Kurz probably most favourable as he talks of maybe finding a more favourable interpretation

-Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary admits some departments have paused domestic work due to Brexit, is not sympathetic to complaints over his use of the phrase disorderly Brexit and says if no deal, there a lot of things outside Whitehall control

-Rutte says he is a big fan of May, admires her tenacity and resilience, a great leader, felt Labour was wrong and un-British when they laughed at her for saying she listened, admires the way she kept her composure and battled her party. Tells Dutch media "'If anyone in the Netherlands thinks Nexit is a good idea, look at England and see the enormous damage it does'"

-Chancellor Kurz says hard to know what would satisfy Brexiteers as their arguments are irrational

-Junker aide's make clear his Irish green tie was a deliberate choice

-Vadaker tells Sky no bilateral deal with London, backs article 50 extension and wants EU to agree to any such request, wants Ireland to be part of 2030 world cup bid, notably reminds Parliament they can do extend Article 50 rather then May

-Lib Dems call for no Christmas recess till Brexit vote may make them least popular party with MP's and journalists

====

-Rees-Mogg feels May is hedging her bets on being leader for next election, May could still resign now she has had time to think and she must realize she is not the person to unite party, denies his groups HQ is called "kill-zone" which he deplores (he suspects that term comes from opponents), says Hammond's comment shouldn't be ignored as he had simply got unusually overexcited (generous but he may also be aware of need for people to overlook his own comments)

-Bridgen calls it kicking can down road and they missed an opportunity, Brexit deal is politically dead

-Austin Mitchell cries Remainer treason

-Blunt, who led revolt, says they must accept result and unite behind May but her current deal is a bad deal, Dorries says they will respect result, the resigning Will Quince says he will accept result but deal needs change

-Cleverly remarks Boris has wasted money on a leadership haircut but then, at what is seen at a shot at Hammond from the deputy chair, remarks "Some colleagues, perhaps out of frustration, saying foolish things about other Conservatives. Now would be a good time to stop." and calls for all sides to respect referendum and leadership results

-Rory Stewart on calls for May to go "The people that are saying she would resign are the people who two hours ago were saying she was going to lose the vote – it doesn’t seem to me they are very good at acknowledging the results of democratic votes."

-Naomi Long quoting Monty's Python's "just a flesh wound" to describe May's situation

-Lee Rowley's criticism of May "stamina is not a strategy" has been picked up

-Hoare says Tories will not be held ransom to by DUP or allow them to dictate leader

-Sir Bone says result was very damaging to May, will be difficult for her to get major changes to backstop

-IDS said, though he hadn't been one of the 48, he voted against May and hopes May has indeed listened about backstop and suggests open border policy (EU would agree to this why?), national unity government is a mad idea, warns comments like Hammond's tend to mean beginning of the end for party and he needs to moderate language in respect to party being a coalition (one where one wing tried to overthrow the PM)

-Freeman thinks May will suffer a few more Brexit defeats till opposition and Tory MP's realize they need to stop signalling and start voting for the country

-David Jones thinks there are some leadership campaigns going on, dislikes civil service using the phrase disorderly Brexit as sends message they aren't preparing

-Hart says the beauty parade is now going on of leadership contenders

-Morgan thinks hard Brexiteers will, at some point, leave the party

-Alistair Burt "They never, ever stop. Votes against them, letters going in late- nothing matters to ERG. After the apocalypse, all that will be left will be ants and Tory MPs complaining about Europe and their leader."

-Sir Cash says he would not back a Labour no confidence motion

-Paterson says was a balanced result but shows May needs to listen and clear his wing have activists behind them, Hammond should go

-Baker urges May to bring deal to parliament so they can show how awful it is, vote it down then EU has to react to that

-Nigel Evans (who, by holding 1922 office, can not reveal how he voted) says May has support of vast majority of party and mood is to get on with things, hopes leadership vote has added backbone to May's negotiators and believes they can get DUP support

-Bild says British attitudes on Brexit (from both sides) is “If that’s reality, I don’t want to have anything to do with it."

-Jose Manuel Barroso calls for EU to show more flexibility on backstop and warns about making UK resentful

-Lord Lawson may not be May's biggest fan "I would have obviously voted against her, because she has been a disaster in every way. The deal which she has come back with is the worst deal imaginable."

====

-Nichols Watt on factors that helped May

-Jessica Elgot recounts the day from inside Westminster

-Kettle lessons to learn from that pointless and damaging vote

-Fleet Street Fox scathing about May's internal foes as is Marina Hyde

-Professor Jonathan Clark on major constitutional issues
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:29 pm

-Abbott gentle and interesting in public health model debate as she talks of drill music and online with calm

-Erskine May to be published online for public

-Apparently Tory whips were planning to restore Elphicke anyway and had felt they jumped too early to suspend him but he and Griffiths return has left bad taste in mouth on all sides (even if Tories feel Labour are being hypocritical)

-Bridgen stormed out of live interview when Cleverly came on. They are both Tories

-EU says they will not reneigioate and WU made further statement (seems less at May, more weary shot at Parliament) as they pulled planned sympathetic parts of communique (which had been agreed before hand), May looks grim and seemed to have a heated discussion with Juncker. May had urged EU not to hold things in reserve, better for orderly exit, MP's want a deal but have backstop concerns, if they help her she can get it through and she asked for 12 month limit to backstop, Germany and Austria were sympathetic but France and Ireland led the opposition (Spain, Belgium, Sweden was against as well) and won

-Council taxes allowed up to 3% rise with some allowed 2% social care levy on top of that and police to double their charges via council tax

-Juncker says UK should reveal what it wants in future relationship, called it nebulous (later says he meant foggy) and lacking detail with British officials unable to give answers, the rumour is this is why May had a go at him. Later after summit during press conference says he has watched some Westminster debates and has noted hostility and distrust to EU so EU has to prove to UK backstop is not intended as permanent move so proposes starting trade talks, calls May a good friend of great courage doing her job in best possible way, says nebulous was about debate and not May, she has given him a kiss after they sorted out the row. Adds May is respected by EU leaders and a great friend to all of them, is tempted to respond to Westminster in same way they treat him but won't as needs to bring down temperature

-Rayner says second referendum undermines democracy and one can't keep going back to people and asking if they changed their mind, May should have worked crossparty

-BBC on how Europe papers reacted to events here

-Government gives extra funding to police to help with pensions shortfall and add more officers but far less the police hoped

-Papers either on May's plea or saying May got crushed by EU (depending when they went to print)

-If your lucky £1 will buy a whole dollar. If the US dollar is feeling generous. In all seriousness, I don't think that the pound falling below the dollar has happened in my adult life time?

-Danish PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen is scathing "it is necessary that you get some homework done in the British parliament which has handled this challenge very different to what Denmark did, when the Danes voted no to Maastricht or as the Irish did when they voted no to Lisbon. In both countries someone took the responsibility on them to decide what to do. In both Denmark and Ireland somebody took upon them to say what can unite us on our country and what should we ask from Europe and here you need to say openly that that need to happen in the United Kingdom now"

-Apparently May answered one EU question with Brexit means Brexit

-Rumours some of the ERG are going on strike (ie not voting for government) "accepting the result"

-Sturgeon credits May for trying but EU response was inevitable so bring deal to parliament

-Romanian president, Klaus Iohannis doesn't expect January emergency summit to fix issues and Westminster needs to back May's deal

-Czech minister for Europe, Ales Chmelar can't see easy way out of backstop issue if Westminster refuses

-Today is 100th anniversary of woman being allowed to become MP's

-May meets Macron. In press conference she says nebulous was only referring to standard of debate in UK, she had "robust" discussions with Juncker, in everyone's interests for a deal, EU made clearest statement yet that backstop only temporary, EU not closing down talks

-Labour block Jess Philips elected appointment to Commons standards and privileges committee ie it's watchdog with former chair (who Philips would have replaced on seat) Kevin Barron having angry row with Corbyn and meeting Nick Brown the shadow whip to sort this out. Labour officially say other candidates stepped forward, nobody seems to believe them and Corbyn is under investigation for some trips

I like to tease Corbyn for when he does political things that he indicated Labour never would or had condemned from Blair and co, he is far from the only backbencher or opposition leader to have been pious about the horrors of central command governments (sometimes genuine, sometimes fake) then adopt the same tactics because it turns out leaders knew what they were doing. It would be nice if likes of Corbyn would acknowledge this and apologize for past attacks but that never happens. However this feels a step more worrying then the usual tactics, we really really need stronger parliamentary watchdogs and such partisan moves do not help.

-Not sure Vadarker saying he was very satisfied with how first night of summit went will help May

-Foster "Key question is whether the PM will stand up to them or whether she will roll over as has happened previously. This is a difficulty of the PM’s own making. A deal was signed off which the PM should have known would not gain the support of Parliament. ‘"

-Nicky Morgan promises her Committee will examine Bank of England expenses and the new expenses policy

-Tusk remarks "We have treated prime minster May with the greatest respect. All of us. And we really appreciate the effort by the prime minister to ratify our common agreement. My impression is that we have treated prime minister May with much greater empathy and respect than some British MPs, for sure.”, has no mandate to reopen talks but is at May's disposal

-I do think EU is rather angry with Westminster over this week's events

-Vardaker says May sought a guaranteed date for trade deal to start (seems open to a target date), he wants trade talks to start as soon as withdrawal deal is settled

-Continuity deal signed with Switzerland

=====

-Philip Davies wants more then five day Brexit debate

-Lord Young in joking mood in Lords

-IDS urged May to threaten EU with divorce bill being withheld

-Toynbee called on being insulting after one DP guest objects to being called insane due to Brexit

-Blair calls for second referendum, urges EU to drop freedom of movement to help encourage UK into staying, would be a critical mistake if EU just allowed UK to leave without trying to persuade us to stay, coutry divided and government distracted from domestic reform

-Some unhappiness at MP's posing in food banks though in DP, some real grandstanding from the two annoyed at such photo's

====

-Owen Jones defends Labour's Brexit strategy but they must prepare for second referendum (defends it better then some shadow ministers)

-Hinsliff Tory Brexiteers blow their one shot and wonders how they will react

-John Campbell on what no deal would mean for Ireland

-Andrew Grimson thinks May's chances of staying on and getting deal is better then people think

-Andrew Grice bad summit means May must go against instincts to get deal through
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Dec 15, 2018 6:10 pm

-Express says EU showed design for the British so why do we bother with talks, Times says cabinet believes May's deal is dead and are looking at alternatives, most papers focusing on the clash and May's defeat

-Rudd calls for MP's on all sides to come together to work out a Brexit deal rather then all the outrage, May should try something different and reach out to opposition but they also need to show an attitude change.

-Morduant expected to bring forward a "managed no deal" process for two years. Fair to say cabinet are being pretty open in ignoring May's deal now

-Arts minister Michael Ellis looking to strengthen (or turn gentleman agreement into law) that allows British institutions right to match a bid for artwork that someone has brought from abroad

-I like Corbyn's cat Christmas card

-Someone in UK seeking to travel in EU will have to pay €7 (£6.30)for rights to do so for three years document but won't need a visa

-Hilary Benn says politicians must take responsibility to implement result of referendum but may come to point where PM has to turn to people

-Electoral Commission has contingency plans for a sudden election or referendum

-D'Arcy Last Week Ahead will be busy

-Government looking at separate caddy for food waste

====

-Farage feels there will be a second referendum though it would be an outrage

-Blair admires May's determination but she must realize she needs to stop digging, doesn't see how consulting people after all we have learnt in last two years is undemocratic

====
-Freedland says Remainers and EU must offer something on migration if UK is to change it's mind

-Tom Edington reality checks how referendum would be implemented

-Will Tanner warns MP's fears of no deal is understandable but second referendum would be a worse disaster

-Forysth (sun) three cabinet plans for Brexit, a push for no deal preparation to be ramped up, Boris building political alliances

-Alex Massie says extraordinary week has not changed the fundamentals

-Simon Jenkins on Crossrail shows everything wrong about our transport spending
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:15 pm

-Observer says she is under pressure to grant free vote on the matter as MP's want to move on, Sunday Times saying Lidington and Barwell (denies it) going behind her back on second referendum to speak to Labour MP's

-Hunt says we will flourish in a no deal and we have faced far worse, seen as a leadership move as he admits he wants a shot at succeeding May when she steps down, says EU needs to listen to May about need for legal reassurance

-May says Blair's talk of second referendum is undermining the Brexit talks which is a "insult to the office he once held" and MP's should not abdicate responsibility by going for referendum, too any seeking to subvert result for their own interest rather then in national interest. Been surprise at the sheer anger in May's words

-Gwynne says Labour would campaign for Brexit in referendum

-Severn Estuary crossing will be free for first time in 800 years

-Dr Fox says if Leave lost referendum narrowly he and others would demand a best of three while it would be impossible to deny Sturgeon a referendum, Labour's Brexit proposals includes a suggestion "have say in EU trade policy" which is illegal in EU rules, some Brexiteers showing an inconsistent view of democracy

====

-Tracey Crouch wants smart motorway roll out to be delayed due to safety concerns

-Jo Johnson concerned that May will delay vote till last moment to try and bounce parliament into accepting her deal

-Lord Sugar says he will leave country if Corbyn wins power

-John Mann concerned at way banks are giving mortgages to those who might struggle when conditions change

====

-Rentoul senses Labour MP's are moving away from referendum

-Shelia Lawlor prefers no deal Brexit over May's deal
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Sun Dec 16, 2018 5:56 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:
-Tracey Crouch wants smart motorway roll out to be delayed due to safety concerns


Having worked in the breakdown industry this really needs to happen. The number of breakdown recovery driver's deaths has increased significantly due to their existence. The slight convenience gained is not worth the risk of death.
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