UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:59 pm

-Corbyn wants ITV's TV debate offer (no panel so head to head, feels bigger and more diverse audience, willing to shift programs for an 7pm one), May prefers BBC (including panel of Brexit something other, public questions including via social media, 8pm next Sunday after Strictly which they feel will tap into huge audience), Jess Philips remarks this seems indicative of parliament problems while other parties furious they wouldn't be involved. Channel 4 looking to get Boris, Umunna and Sturgeon to represent all shades of Brexit view in a debate

-Trump getting Brexit briefings from Farage. A fair few on the left had mocked Farage when his USA breakthrough didn't happen and when he seemed to be on the outside with Trump but looks like he is back in favour

-Government business motion for Brexit debate is as expected in terms of schedule including up to eight hours on it each day but proposes six amendments to be allowed and they must be before the main vote.

-Labour trying to downplay McDonnell's comments

-Reeves officially complains to Bercow about Hammond avoiding urgent question on forecast

-Abbott not a fan of police knocking people off mopeds and remarks police are not above the law, Camden police question how someone meant to be legislating doesn't know laws covering in dangerous pursuits gives them such freedom. Abbott says May's Brexit deal is flimsy on security cooperation and just having aspiration

-Certain press seizing on Rees-Mogg's comments to describe Bank of England as engaging in "Project Hysteria", Remainer ones prefer to use the Treasury one

-Security Minister Ben Wallace says no deal Brexit would impact ability to protect public due to damage to security ties with EU

-Leadsom has written to her constituents to say she will vote for May's plan

-UK have agreed on open skies with some countries so planes will fly post Brexit between UK and US, Albania, Georgia, Iceland, Israel, Kosovo, Montenegro, Morocco and Switzerland while they hope to soon add Canada to list.

-McDonnell says it is hard to tell who would win second referendum

-Sir Cash amazed as what he feels is Hammond arguing for Remain and is ignoring the potential of trade deals, says his Committee will indeed hold inquiry into how negotiations were conducted

-Well noted Treasury analysis shows London will be alright, mostly, but the Leae strongholds are going to be in a world of hurt in no deal though May's would hurt London hardest

-Lords and Commons in row over peers recent use of the Westminster bar the Pugin room which is meant to be for MP's

-Ban on military grade assault rifles dropped due to likely revolt from DUP and some Tories

-UK has met UN HIV targets for first time in 2017 and a few years before UN deadline

-Net Migration from EU lowest in six years at 74,000 but non-EU migration highest since 2004 at 248,000

-Rayner on Rees-Mogg's attack on Carney "Carney worked at 13 years at Goldman Sachs, Ex Governor Bank of Canada, G7 Minister, Chair of financial stability board, member of the Group of 30 an international body of leading financiers and academics. Studied at Harvard, St Peters&Nuffield Oxford, Jacob cannot count to 48", Gauke is a tad more diplomatic "Of course, people can disagree with BoE view. But to dismiss possibility that it may be broadly right seems like an act of faith not reason."

-Carney says the scenario was on basis everything that could go wrong did go wrong and is low probability, wants transition period whatever happens with Brexit but isn't trying to scare people, hints wider economy needs longer then two year transition and they need to prepare

-Before May went to G20, she went before Liaison Committee and indicated if vote goes against her, she will prepare for no deal though doesn't say if she would allow no deal to happen (Cooper, who knows May a long time, has said she suspects May wouldn't), considers extending article 50 an attempt to frustrate Brexit. Prefers friends rather then marriage as an analogy to relationship with EU, immigration paper published is not connected to Brexit deal and won't confirm it will be before Brexit vote, extending article 50 means negotiations would have to restart, admitted she had been unable to persuade EU on frictionless trade

-Bernard Jenkin feels failure to consult Raab was breach of ministerial code

-Tom Brake has written to Bercow accusing government of contempt of parliament for not publishing legal advice

-Barnier "The United Kingdom -- because of her culture, her history, her total solidarity, particularly during the great tragedies that Europe has faced in the 20th century, her economy, the quality of her diplomacy -- is a great country and my respect for it is absolute."

-Corbyn says, on a personal level, he has sympathy for May and respects her work ethic and that she is doing her best

-Gove tries to answer question in French but drops it, says Macron's demands on fishing should prove he hasn't got what he wanted

-Scottish Tories looking on their own in Hollyrood as others back motion opposing May's deal


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-Boris says the British establishment always get forecasts wrong

-Davis says Treasury engaging in government propaganda war and are always wrong, May's deal is a false one

-Baker says Treasury forecasting reputation is in gutter, they should publish assumptions and full model documentation

-Patel says government should bet on Britain and be optimistic rather then Project Fear

-Andrea Jenkyns (who opposes May's deal and wants her gone) suspects her husband Jack Lopestrito (who backs May's deal) becoming Barclay's PPS is an attempt to divide the house

-IDS says recent economic reports have risen Project Fear like Frankenstein's monster

-Jess Philips wants second referendum

-Farage calls deal the worst deal for UK history, tells EU how much Trump loves all the EU countries, wishes Barnier was on UK side as he won every single thing, wouldn't be surprised if ends up in no deal

-Duddrige says Carney is failing to be independent, should resign and become an MP if he wishes to take such stances

-Dr Lee worried at amount of EU nationals leaving

-Brewer Greene King thinks Brexit fatigue is leading to more drinking

-Jo Johnson fears a 97 style Tory wipe out due to May's deal with Brexit hanging around Tory necks for years to come, concerned at damage to union from Irish backstop "When we were told that Brexit would mean taking back control, none of us in our wildest imaginations thought it would mean powers being taken [from Westminster] to other European parliaments and the European Parliament."

-Lloyd Russell-Moyle announces (with HIV day on Saturday) that he has been HIV positive for a decade now and was given an ovation

-Greening says there is time to have a second Referendum on 30th May

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-Nick Triggle on Brexit health questions

-Kuessenberg on unhappiness May isn't touring the Westminster tea rooms

-Kettle says May's efforts are heroic but doomed due to earlier mistakes

-Andrew Lilico feels no deal forecast went into the absurd
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Nov 30, 2018 7:16 pm

-Corbyn took part in HIV debate as backbencher

-Telegraph says 100 Tories now against May's deal with independent saying whips threatening to cut short Christmas break if May loses

-May says Labour haven't put up a proper alternative to replace her fan and her plan will protect the livelihoods of her constituents, would only debate with Corbyn, dodges around what happens to her if she loses vote, will be robust with Saudi prince.

-Dr Fox says May's critics haven't faced up to the kind of touch choices May had to make, says cabinet will vote for deal and any who don't would have to resign, feels May is changing public mood, could have a freerer trade policy but at cost of EU markets which would be huge loss of jobs, everyone hates backstop which means it won't be invoked. No deal wouldn't be disaster, doesn't entirely agree with what Bank of England did but acknowledges not a forecast, no deal wouldn't be disaster but would be consequences

-Rail fares up by 3.1% in New Year

-Lidington suggests to DUP that whole of UK being in single market as a softer backstop, not gone down well

-EU officials say extending article 50 won't mean renegotiation talks and apparently puzzled May said that

-If no deal, N.Ireland can have 60 lorries in Republic. I'm not missing a 0 there

-Bradley says Brexit deal puts N.Ireland in an unrivalled global position to attract foreign investment with connections to EU and benefiting from UK trade deals

-Tusk says deal is best one possible and they are prepared for no deal if need be

-Gove to be sent to talk to Scottish Tory MP's privately to address their concerns on fishing

-McDonnell says second referendum would likely have Remain as an option

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-Rees-Mogg says trust in institutions have been made worse by how they handled Brexit

-Nandy calls for Brexit delay

-Kevin Schofield interviews Rory Stewart who backs deal and not impressed by Brexit idealists, prison reform

-People's Vote campaign complains to BBC and Ofcom at there not being a pro referendum figure in debate

-Lord Chris Smith praises Russell-Moyle's speech on HIV

-Russell-Moyle wants PrEP pill in England

-Lord Ashcroft to do a biography of Rees-Mogg. He is 49 and never held major office and Rees-Mogg has some scepticism "In some part flattered but mainly surprised that the life of a backbench MP could be sufficiently interesting. It is not an idea that I would or have encouraged.”

-Ian Austin says Labour should back May's deal

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-Alex Morton May is right to believe immigration was key on Brexit

-Kuessenberg on May's mood

-Georgia Roberts on nine Tory tribes

-Iain Dale questions May's strategy and not happy with Carney
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:18 pm

-Science minister Sam Gyimah resigns on Brexit, says failure for UK to remain in Galileo was final straw and that clear any deal with EU will be done by EU with EU first policy so we will be in for a lot of hurt in talks ahead, he will vote against deal. He is expected to back second referendum, seen as a rising figure, a May loyalist (till now) and a pragmatic remainer, so his doing that has spread unease in Leaver circles at momentum for second referendum and will unsettle May's camp.

-D'Arcy major week ahead and puzzlement on government strategy

-Finical Times saying May will oust head of crossrail and HS2 Sir Terry Morgan after only four months (not a ringing endorsement for Grayling who appointed him)

-Press divided on May's handshake and meeting with Prince Mohammed Bin Salman

-10 ministers have resigned since Chequers

-Gove says May deal doesn't give him 100% of what he wants but they didn't get 100% vote on referendum, it delivers the key concepts of Brexit and if May loses vote thn Brexit itself is at risk.

-McDonnell says he expects Labour discipline to hold on Brexit vote

-Tusk says only alternatives to May's deal are no deal or no Brexit

-Truss says parts of deal can be renegotiated after Brexit

-Labour backing crossparty amendment that bans no deal (wouldn't be binding and not sure how EU will react to that)

-Scottish applications for Irish citizenship has increased 19fold since Brexit result

-Justin Madders accuses Hancock of breaking ministerial code by endorsing GP at Hand app

-Government takes control of Northamptonshire' Children Services and local elections postponed as wasting money till it's future is sorted out

-N.Ireland chief servant David Sterling says urgent reform in health, education and social housing being held up by lack of N.Irish government

-Lord Carrington wins peers byelection

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-Kuessenberg on Gyimah resignation

-Katya Adler on EU reaction to UK chaos

-Chris Mason on People's Vote dilemma

-Andrew Grimson not a fan of TV debate plan

-Forsyth (sun) unhappy at state of no deal prep, backs Brokenshire, Labour plans, Leveson defeated
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Han » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:13 am

Did Theresa May host any meetings with Trump, Xi, Putin, Merkel or Macron during G20?
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:28 am

Han wrote:Did Theresa May host any meetings with Trump, Xi, Putin, Merkel or Macron during G20?


I believe the answer to all of those is no, Putin's was cancelled I think due to Ukraine row with waters and May seems to be going for non-EU leaders like Canada, Turkey, Japan.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:58 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:
Han wrote:Did Theresa May host any meetings with Trump, Xi, Putin, Merkel or Macron during G20?


I believe the answer to all of those is no, Putin's was cancelled I think due to Ukraine row with waters and May seems to be going for non-EU leaders like Canada, Turkey, Japan.


Just so this doesn't get missed

=====

-Shadow Development Secretary Kate Osamor resigns to support her family over questions over what she knew about her son's legal issues and when. Being alleged by Sunday Times to have thrown water on journalist which may not have helped.

-Looks like DUP have allied with opposition to get full Brexit legal advice published with Sir Stramer warning they will start proceedings for contempt of parliament, suspicions legal advice on backstop will prove a disaster for May

-Sir Stramer tells shadow cabinet to prepare for no confidence vote if May deal loses and then to prepare for second referendum

-Dr Fox says Brexiteers are in touching distance of leaving EU and mustn't manage to leave themselves wondering how they snatched defeat from jaws of victory

-Corbyn says he would do BBC debate but only if format changed to head to head

-May says to G20 that her deal is good for world economy and will have independent trade policy before talking to Australia, Canada, Japan, Turkey and Chile leaders.

- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asks, on behalf of Japanese business in UK, for us to to avoid no deal

-Is a sense May is losing support in Westminster

-Williamson calls for public to be alert around military bases as Russian TV crew spotted near in

-Ofsted head Amanda Speilman says parents should tackle obesity at home and not rely on schools

-Raab says backstop would last forever or however long it took for new deal to emerge as EU has veto

====

-Rawnsley on Brexit state of play

-Stephen Booth backstop a problem for EU
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:04 pm

-Allegations against Osamor downgraded to throwing water so changed post to reflect it

-Leadsom says second referendum is gross betrayal of democracy and would damage the trust of the people

-Sun saying Brexit vote could be delayed as whips don't feel they can get it through (Javi has denied that utterly) and that Javid vs May on if there should be a fixed date to lower low skilled migration, Telegraph saying they have seen leaked letter from Olly Robbins warning backstop would be for UK with no legal guarantee we could get out, Times saying DUP may abandon May in a no confidence vote, Sunday Times warns the Attorney General advice includes we can only leave backstop if new trade deal is sign

-Gardiner believes any referendum would have to have Remain and no deal as option, says EU will renegotiate deal

-Gove feels Leave would win second referendum but it would be divisive and both sides would feel insulted at being asked again

-Blackford says SNP would back a vote to suspend article 50 process (because the EU would agree to this why?) and ill back a ban on no deal

-Fury as Home Office not contacted those wrongly deported to Commonwealth with Home Office saying up to others to contact them

-Sir Stramer says he has studied Norway option for four days and doesn't think it will work for us, Brandon Lewis says free movement and payments aspect is issue with Norway

-Brandon Lewis denies government have plans for an early election

-Javid says he was bullied at school due to being Asian and is unhappy this is clearly still going on, warns immigration paper unlikely to come out before Brexit vote as working on getting details right, a fan of immigration as he feels it has made the country strong, Brexit deal would only government to set up it's own immigration system.

-Disability Minister Sarah Newton on ensuring disabled people aren't excluded

-May says we can be better off after Brexit (is carefully not saying we will be)

-Olly Robbins, facing Brexit select committee, says backstop is a slightly uncomfortably necessity for both sides

-Attorney General Cox (spending over twohours at dispatch box which is rare for anyone not a PM) says Brexit deal is political rather then legal decision but will ensure MP's do not have any legal misunderstandings about it and opposes full publication in public interest, expressly intended for backstop to be temporary, no unilateral right for either party to terminate agreement, MP's have to make political judgement about how likely backstop is to come into force. Would prefer ability to exit backstop unilaterally but as he doubts UK would ever be in permanently, accepts the deal as a good compromise, nothing in international law to stop backstop being permanent but EU would face legal challenges due to N.Ireland competitive advantage and EU would likely lose the case. Thinks any attempt by UK to not pay EU would fail and damage reputation, is prepared to face sanction and government erred in abstaining on past humble address motion on the matter

-Six opposition parties (Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, DUP, Greens and Plaid) have issued contempt motions against government over legal advice

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-Patel argues if May's Brexit adviser feels backstop is bad, how can anyone vote for it

-Boris, Davis and Braverman calls for full Brexit legal advice to be published

-Batten survives no confidence vote but UKIP Executive Council make clear they do not support hiring Tommy Robinson, Suzanne Evans has resigned calling it a successor to BNP.

-Stephen Doughty wants System Resistance Network banned

-Blair says debate during second referendum would be more realistic then one in first referendum

-Mark Menzies adds Argentina in his portfolio as trade envoy

-ITV's Daniel Hewitt got this from an anon Tory MP after meeting May "“it’s like my favourite aunt has slaved over a cake for my birthday and as much I don’t want to offend her, the cake is a mess, it tastes awful and I just can’t eat it”"

-Umunna pushes for referendum

-Mike Ashley's hearing with Community Committee gets testy as he wants to talk about high street and feels MP's are showboating, they wished to ask House of Fraiser plans and Sports Direct business practises

-Lord Falconer warns Cox may have misread Constitution as Commons decides what is public interest

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-D'Ancona is blunt at what he feels drives Brexit

-Rentoul on the parliamentary numbers for referendum

-Robert Peston on immigration row

-George Pascoe-Watson on Brexit toll on Whitehall mental health and Trade department's role in future
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Han » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:07 am

Has your stance on brexit change since the last time we spoke about it? As in, are you pro-Eu or pro-Brexit. And what do you think will be the long term implications depending of staying and leaving the EU? Specifically when it comes to the UK relationship with Ireland, Germany, France and Russia.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:07 am

I suspect that was directed towards DZ rather than me but I'll offer my view and we'll see if the two of us agree.

I think Brexit is a bad idea, however like May I think the result of the vote should be honoured. I also disagree with a re-vote, I do think we would see rioting and violence from many who feel their voice is being ignored. Which leads naturally into what will happen if we stay. The country's divisions will become increasingly bitter with the working class feeling ignored by all major parties. The fringe right wing parties would benefit with either a resurgent UKIP or BNP doing incredibly well at the next election. I can see a Trump-esque figure rising in British politics.

Leaving will have at the very least severe short term impacts on our economy. What happens afterwards very much depends on what kind of trade deals we sign. That will depend on whether May, Corbyn or another candidate is Prime Minister. If we get a genuine right wing Tory in power than I have real concerns about our NHS and the level of worker rights. For example we get a decent amount of holiday a year, the idea of people in the USA only getting 2 weeks and often not taking it is horrifying.

I doubt our relationship with Russia will change at all. We're on particularly bad terms after the recent poisoning scandal. We are still going to be part of NATO and will still be opposed to them on a global level.

The European countries you mention will be more interesting. I would suggest our relationship with all three has often been pretty tense. The exception, perhaps is Germany under Kohl and Merkel who have been to a limited extent our allies in the the EU. I think France will be pleased to see the back of us really, as they'll hope to move into the power vacuum. In short, I don't really see it changing tons. There might be some more overt tension, but in reality I don't think their opinions will have really changed much.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:42 am

Han wrote:Has your stance on brexit change since the last time we spoke about it? As in, are you pro-Eu or pro-Brexit. And what do you think will be the long term implications depending of staying and leaving the EU? Specifically when it comes to the UK relationship with Ireland, Germany, France and Russia.


Still think it is a disaster to Brexit. I would love a revote and to Remain in an ideal world but realistically I don't think it should happen unless public demand a revote or a vote on deal with options becuase, like Sun Fin, I think the backlash on the vote, a divisive referendum (and Remain camapign seems to have learnt no lessons so could blow it) won't help anything. If people switched to Remain, the "betrayal" narrative will grow stronger and stronger even among those who would be quietly relieved in the initial aftermath.

Our once strong relations with Ireland has deteriorated and I think that will continue to be bad. Maybe not at the highest levels but Ireland is feeling a tad insulted by "the border issue is a lie" thrown out by senior Brexiteers and there will be disagreements how to handle N.Ireland. If Ireland unifies, expects senior figures in UK to hate Ireland. As UK's one land border with EU, a lot of tensions

Germany: Will still be friends but more distant due to not being n EU so not meeting them at ministeral level so often. If we keep our heads, things should be good

As long as we don't keep trying to deal with our problems by mentioning WW2 and nobody senior starts making Hitler comparisons when we have disagreement with EU. That is always a potential problem with us, we kind of see Germany's hand in everything EU does and WW2 comes up way too much as it is.

France: If the French flee London, that will weaken cultural ties alongside the distancing due to not being in EU meetings though we tended to disagree with them. With Calais/Dover being key borders, there is room for things to deteriorate fast (the Calais camps could be a source of tension as it was but both sides usually cooperated) with disputes on border matters. President Macron has indicated strong tactics on fishing so will be short term (couple of years) clashes there during trade talks

Russia: Is bad, will still be bad
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