UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:09 pm

-Corbyn says he can't see himself agreeing with a Tory MP on Brexit then talks of need to bring people together

-Brexit Withdrawal deal has now reached 500 pages

-Hinds asks Tory and DUP critics of May, what are the alternatives, warns EU not likely to agree to UK being able to just walk out of backstop

-Labour figures like Thornberry and Stramer seem to be trying to pull back from Corbyn's Brexit can't be stopped

-Griffith horrified that Trump failed to do duty at armistice due to rain

-Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez urges second referendum

-Seems like someone is leaking cabinet unease with Brexit plans, particularly from Brexiteer wings but including Javid, Williamson and Baroness Evans

-Leadsom says UK must be able to leave backstop but urges Tories to back May

-Ellwood says government is in talk with armed forces for all Brexit possibilities, remarks rain didn't stop soldiers doing their jobs (Trump reference)

-Barnier says deal has not been agreed and all scenario preparations need to be done

-Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, says up to British if a deal, no unilateral backstop

-Michael Roth, the German Europe minister says must be a genuine backstop to prevent UK undercutting EU on regulations

-Sir Stramer says May's "no deal if my deal gets voted down" is a bluff

-Morduant remarks cabinet will act as a check on Brexit deal

-Talks went onto 3am last night

-Lord privileges committee asks for peers to suspend Lord Lester for over three years over sexual harassment complaint, offence took place when there wasn't power to expel but would be longest suspension since WW2. Lords expected to vote it through

-Convey says EU's backing of Ireland is stronger then ever

-Labour to use Humble Address to try to get Brexit legal advice published

-Tory rebellion brewing on fixed odd betting terminals

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-Whittingdale says hard to see May being able to continue if she can't get Brexit plan through parliament

-Rudd and Andrew Percy not fans of Canada style deal

-Tugenhdat says he is open to being leader in future, waiting to see what happens with Brexit deal but fears government looks worn out, wants UK to use Brexit to look at relations with others and highlights India as one to build stronger relations with

-Boris calls for cabinet mutiny to throw out Chequers completely, Rees-Mogg prefers to see it as proper cabinet oversight

-Greening doubts Chequers, which she calls worst of both worlds, can get through parliament, cutting tuition fees will be bad for social mobility and take money out of Stem degrees, suspects there are ministers considering resigning

-Gordon Brown expects second referendum, long term vision for what Brexit means is lacking and suggests Royal Commission in Irish model, Irish Parliament tells government to go back and negotiate again all the time so UK should feel free to, G20 is out of date and world is worst prepared for next finical crash then the last one, referendum result would have been diffirent if UK had imposed allowed migration measures. Says EU referendum politicians did not go to industrial towns and need to reach out to them, Scotland should be able to sign it's own treaties with EU, remarks Corbyn was always keen to remind Brown Labour politicians are bound by conference when Brown was in government, strong change we rejoin EU after Brexit and EU should keep that open. Fears a more divided nation then any time since full democracy and both sides feeling greatly betrayed, cites Shakespeare's sceptred isle for internationalism and criticises the film Dunkirk for neglecting French and giving an isolationist view.

-Three out of four ex-PM's expect second referendum, Cameron hasn't said either way.

-Rees-Mogg warns UK could stumble in either no deal Brexit or Tory leadership contest by accident

-Sir Soames "They died with their face to the foe and that pathetic inadequate Trump couldn’t even defy the weather to pay his respects to The Fallen #hesnotfittorepresenthisgreatcountry"

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-Kuessenberg on cabinet disagreements

-Leo McKinstry second referendum not answer,, rails against Remainers and the elite

-Mathew Norman urges Sir Stramer and Dail Mail to back referendum

-Alan Roden feels People's Vote campaign is being very successful

-Tom Harris not happy with Gordon Brown's Brexit plan
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:28 pm

-Lidington feels Brexit talks have gone up in last 48 hours

-Hard Brexiteers in cabinet met in Dr Fox office

-This on past cabinet disagreement on Chequers been doing rounds

-Lord Kerr says no legal issue with delaying article 50

-Unemployment up to 4.1% but earnings rise biggest for decade at 3.2%, record number of vacancies as EU migrants leave

-Government agree to publish a legal analysis of withdrawal agreement with Cox agreeing to make a statement to Commons and MP's told to abstain if Labour push further for full legal advice

-Seems major breakthrough on Irish issue and cabinet to be summoned tomorrow to look at withdrawal agreement, EU careful not to say deal is done and those who one expects to oppose have already opposed, DUP seem worried. The next 24-48 hours will be major in Brexit situation

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-Umunna on state of Brexit

-Hoey says she won't vote for a deal that panders to Ireland

-Boris says the Brexit talks delays are just stage managed to allow May to surrender to EU, wants asylum for Asia Bibi, nobody can support deal as would hand control of N.Ireland to Ireland which is undemocratic

-Mark Francois compares May's handling of Brexit to fall of Singapore

-Lord Hague thinks deal may be last minute as both sides stare at the brink

-Premier Foods stockpiling in case of no deal Brexit, British Airways having to deny rumours they are planning to move to Spain and rename themselves

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-Toynbee feels Boris and Rees-Mogg are paper tigers

-Behr Russian propaganda in UK

-Kuessenberg on state of Brexit

-Gisela Stuart feels political class haven't mended their way
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:10 pm

-DUP really really threatening to pull out of confidence agreement with government if deal is not to their liking (they have pretty much ceded it is not) and even vote down budget, clearly very worried about special conditions for N.Ireland, Foster flying to London and re-tweets MLA member tweet "Politics may be the art of the possible, but it is also the science of mathematics of votes".

-Julian Smith says confident he can get deal through parliament, don't know many in press who agree

-Ireland preparing for special cabinet to discuss deal

-Opposition parties pushing for meaningful vote

-Morduant has asked for a free vote on Brexit deal which would suggest she does not like it, is a sense cabinet won't see resignations on first day

-Rather surprised to see the Express likes the deal, possibly less so Evening Standard unhelpfully says EU Takes Back Control

-UK has conceded to level playing field

-Not going to help May that Barnier's deputy notes to ambassadors have been leaked suggesting EU has control

-Bercow acknowledges he needs to stop mimicking

-European Commission willing to exempt UK citizens from visa's for shirt visits if no deal

-Leadsom optimistic about deal

-SNP furious at N.Ireland's special rules which seem similar to what they want for Scotland

-Jonathan Edwards says his accent was mocked in budget debate

-Looks like government is going long and 4 weeks before Brexit deal votes

-PMQ's sees May saying she will do statement to Commons on withdrawal agreement

-Irish government hints EC will publish withdrawal agreement tonight with aim for November 25th summit

-Scottish Tories making Brexit stand on fishing rights

-IMF says a Brexit deal with frictionless trade would see a dividend no deal would be a disaster, puts May's deal as better then they had predicted

-Cabinet overruns by several hours to end up five hours and, amidst unhappiness from MP's at planned press conference, cancels press conference so tomorrow Commons gets her thoughts first

-Some Brexiteers are trying to no confidence May, rumours that ERG is behind it have been denied and it does seem unlikely this is coordinated, this may not serve Brexiteer high command as entirely possible the anger among some MP's will force a no confidence vote before they can coordinate.

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-Rees-Mogg says backstop seems to be worse then feared and a slight of hand, fears deal is a fudge that could repeat the Cornlaws split, warns there may come a point where he has to write letter of no confidence

-IDS says May's government days are numbered, accuses May's spine of not meeting her brain and they will not sacrifice N.Ireland

-Conservative Home calls for Brexiteer cabinet members to resign

-Bone hammered May at PMQ's

-Rudd pleased at deal and doesn't expect resignations

-Francois calls for ministers to defend their country by opposing deal, no way deal gets through parliament, predicts resignations

-Lord Hague says second referendum would be most divisive and poisonous event in 100 years, deal is best one can realistically get and trade with EU

-Farage calls deal worst in history, May worst PM and possibly most dishonest he has ever known, thinks parliament will collapse

-Briden says if May doesn't stand down, she will soon face leadership contest, maybe by Monday

-Remainers like Sir Grieve and Dr Lee against May's deal

-Conor Burns admires the errant genius of May uniting Remainers and Brexiteers against deal

-Blair says May deal is capitulation and makes Brexit pointless

-Blair bemoans Corbyn's failure to lead on people's vote, deal ahead not one anyone voted for "The denigration of the Labour party record in government and its designation by the far left as ‘neo-liberal’ is one of the most absurd and self-defeating caricatures of modern political history. The Labour party has paid, but more importantly the country has paid, a heavy price for this stupidity."

-Simon MGarr on twitter jokes "Brexit has been 18 months of watching someone trying to haggle on prices with the automatic scanning machine at a Tesco checkout."

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-Kussenberg on challenge facing deal

-Katya Adler on EU reaction

-John Pienaar is very worried

-Dawn Foster DUP's leadership is in trouble

-Professor Feargal Cochrane Irish unionists fear another Anglo-Irish style agreement

-Tom Peck on Brexiteers dodging responsibility

-Anne McElvoy on May's calculations
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:37 am

Five minister resignations and May faced outright laughter in the commons. I can't see her surviving today as anything more but PM in name. Be prepared for the Tory party to lurch to the right.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:52 pm

Sun Fin wrote:Five minister resignations and May faced outright laughter in the commons. I can't see her surviving today as anything more but PM in name. Be prepared for the Tory party to lurch to the right.


Raab's is very damaging, rest less so I suspect.

I think it possible she survives (bar May's ability to just keep hanging on is amazing), the Brexiteers are lurching towards a no confidence vote before they are ready, even with Raab as leader I'm not sure they can win that vote. I think her attempt to get deal will fail, her plan seems to be delaying for as long as possible to ride through the anger and then MP's start to panic as business and other groups have a word at how much no deal sucks. It isn't a bad plan but with DUP, Labour, SNP and Brexiteers again, hard to see how they can muster the numbers
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:52 pm

Resignations: N.Ireland minister and former Remainer Shailesh Vara first to resign, bemoaning half way house that doesn't give UK it's sovereignty. Dominic Raab was first big name to go, due to Ireland and no end date to backstop, his letter was respectful to May and claimed they simply disagreed which he respects. Losing two Brexit Secretaries, two ardent Brexiteers, is going to be very damaging to May as Brexiteers will further build narrative, using Davies and Raab, of betrayal, of not listening to them, Brexit deal not good enough. Before 10 Am and before May made statement to Commons, it was 3 Esther McVey who was known to have reacted strongest against the deal had gone, her statement less respectful then Raab's as she explains fury with customs union. One wonders if will be change of tone at DWP while pressure began to be put on other Brexit ministers. Brexit minister Suella Braverman resigns (actually resigns this time) timing and that there was the last time fuss has probably cost her favour with her Brexit friends, Education PPS Anne-Marie Trevelyan went though hardly surprising given her 1922 comments, Justice PPS Ranil Jayawardena, vice chair Rehman Chishti artly over Brexit and partly failure to do more on Asia Bibi

-Chris Morris runs through deal papers

-May describing cabinet as long and passionate debate does not reassure me, says deal is best that could be negotiated and alternatives are no Brexit or no deal Brexit, cabinet has taken collective decision to back it, difficult days ahead but she firmly believes deal is in national interest.

-Rees-Mogg has written to all MP's listing 4 reasons (payments for little in return, treatment of N.Ireland, keeping in customs union, goes against manifesto) to reject the Brexit plan, says in Commons he sees case for no confidence vote and letter sends no confidence letter in.

-Transition can be extended with no set date given yet but would require some payments, arbiatrian panel and joint governance committee though some things would have to go to ECJ, backstop ending requires joint agreement

-Barnier agrees with May deal is best one possible, hopes never to use backstop, warns long road ahead

-Hammond thanks business groups for informing people of the horrors of a no deal situation, he and Clark trying to drum up business backing

-Very clear at least a fair chunk of cabinet not happy, McVey's people saying she felt shouted down by Smith and Sedwell when she demanded cabinet vote

-Vadarker happy with deal, feel Ireland has got insurance needed, Irish government has formally backed it

-Sun really didn't seem to like the deal, Mail quite happy but overall press either unhappy at deal or respect May for getting this far but don't think May can get it through

-Sir Stramer calls deal a miserable failure of negotiation and a very blind Brexit, failed every Labour test

-EU summit on November 25th on Brexit with Tusk promising to try to make Brexit as painless for both sides as possible

-Hancock says alternatives to May's deal are ugly, second referendum highly divisive, refuses to deny he warned cabinet no deal would cost lives

-SNP rule out backing May's deal in current form

-Independent claiming DUP no longer getting civil service emails on Brexit

-Government concedes on fixed odd betting terminal end date

-Chief Commons clerk Sir David Natzler retiring in March, suspicion his handling of bullying allegations brought it forward somewhat

-Dodds says May simply isn't listening on N.Ireland

-Mundell calls Raab a carpet bagger, remarks he tried to override Scottish legal system a few years ago so suspect Raab's commitment to union is due to leadership ambitions

-Rumours Gove has turned down Brexit post and then others that Gove will only take it if he can renegotiate. Is a sense Gove, if he has (as I would say is likely) rejected Brexit post then he needs to resign

-Rory Stewart damaging his once great reputation with questionable use of statistics to defend May deal including 80% of public back deal. Even friendly papers making Trump comparisons

-Leadsom says she won't resign

-Raab being very careful not to give people further reason to use him to attack May

-Sterling and government gilts taking hits due to political chaos

-EU trying to warn that sending back for another go at deal won't work, there is little room for manoeuvred and UK has got as good as EU thinks they can get

-More cabinet have resigned under May then ever under Cameron

-Tusk says they are preparing for all eventualities including the best one: no Brexit at all

-Sturgeon and Carwyn Jones demanding more involvement in Brexit

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-Baker predicts deal, like a bad budget, will collapse in days

-Blair on the deal. Hint, not a fan

-Hannan says MP's must act

-Anne Marrie Morris thinks 1922 Committee has now got the 48 letters needed

-UKIP using deal for a big push for members

-Francois says 84 Tories and climbing will vote against May's deal

-Bridgen calls for May to resign

-Sir Leigh says if no confidence vote fails then May is strengthened

-Henry Smyth+Sheryll Murray has sent in no confidence letter,

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-Toynbee says nothing can be solved

-Kettle on MP's will battle with parliamentary procedure to win their cause

-Chris Cook on retirement of chief clerk

-Behr on Raab resignation

-Tim Montgomerie warns fellow Brexiteers they need t take some blame for what has happened and would take May's deal due to lack of time for anything else
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:00 pm

It's been a pretty dark day in British politics. I can't see a majority for any form of Brexit, including remaining. I just don't know where May, or anyone else, can go from here.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:10 pm

Sun Fin wrote:It's been a pretty dark day in British politics. I can't see a majority for any form of Brexit, including remaining. I just don't know where May, or anyone else, can go from here.


My prediction? May's deal falls first time, she possibly hangs on through that, they try one more time to get deal through as markets, business and public service beg to avoid no deal... it still fails. We end up stumbling into a no deal Brexit with all the consequences that brings.

It has been a dark day but like most of those that come, it will bit by bit and lack a sense of spectacular
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UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:25 pm

Yeah, I agree with all you’ve said. None of May’s critics have the oratory flair of their forerunners.
Last edited by Sun Fin on Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Jia Nanfeng » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:25 pm

What is the likelihood that another vote is held?
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