UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:08 am

May has called for an election for 8th June to seek a mandate on Brexit

Shall we pretend the Tories might not win or discuss now the huge victory she will get :wink:
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:30 am

Is the big question not whether Labour will come, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in this election? I'm not particularly pleased with the idea of a party that only stands in one part of the UK becoming the official opposition...
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:16 pm

SNP can only get 50 I think, Labour at absolute worst over the top predictions would still have over 100 seats. It is possible the Tories become their own opposition mind
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:23 pm

I can actually see SNP losing seats. Whilst Scotland as a whole voted overwhelming to Remain my understanding is that specifically SNP voters were much more divided with quite a high proportion of their core voters being pro-Brexit. I have no idea how evenly they are spread but I could imagine them losing a few seats to the Scottish Tories.

EDIT: This link talks about SNP voters who voted to leave.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:28 pm

When I say over 100, 125 is the worst prediction I recall so still way over 100

SNP do have a problem over SNP supporters being pro-Brexit vs party leadership and country being Remain, it might angle things little for Ruth Davidson but I think the damage might be more for independence or Hollyrood camapigns then here where Scotland vs Westminster is going to rally SNP. Then again, I'm from England so I'm talking out of my hair on this
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:51 pm

-Parliament will be dissolved on 2nd May

The election announcement was a shock, people hadn't seen it coming and while as soon as it was announced she was going to make an announcement that was one of the best guesses (also thought war and health issues), none of her staff leaked it at all which has impressed journalists while ministers were not told. Though lack of black seal, refusal to deny it meant press did get the idea. May's argument is she needed to provide stability in aftermath of referendum but she needs mandate for her Brexit plans and accuses other parties of gameplaying and an election will allow the country to have strong leadership.

Corbyn says Labour will allow the general election through Commons so they can provide an alternative platform with their new policies but some of his MP's are unhappy (some fears about marginals, worries abou N.Ireland and wrong time for election), Farron says a chance to stop hard Brexit, Greens welcome chance for country to decide it's path, UKIP welcomes it and says Labour's weakness is why this is happening, Sturgeon says this is a miscalculation for the union, SDLP calls it disdain for N.Ireland, Plaid says they will provide real opposition

I wonder how public will react to this, will they see her argument as reasonable and justifying an early election or seen as breaking her word?

=====

-Apparently David Davis said five years it was key Brexit Britain stayed in customs union and better to lose ability for trade deals then lose customs union

-Attorney General Jeremy Wright QC trying to stop prosecution of Blair for alleged crime of aggression

-Delight from mental health campaigner and politicians after Prince Harry talks of his failure to grieve for his mother and coming close to a breakdown

-Corbyn says most Labours members, MP's and voters back his policies (true to an extent I imagine), poll ratings will improve (this was before May's shock announcement), bemoans Peirs Morgan only being interested in polling and his leadership during interview, jokes he has made too many mistakes to list

-Met chief not in favour of arming the guards of Westminster with guns

-Lagard says UK economy is starting to be hit by Brexit vote but IMF ups our growth to 2% from 1.5%

- Comres gives Tories a 21 point lead over weekend, Youugv gives May a 13% lead on Corbyn (Don't Know remains her biggest challenger) and Tories 17% lead, ICM gives Tories 18 point lead today, Electroal Calcus poll of polls for March gives Tories a 112 majority. ICM snap poll says people back election by 55-15%, 54% says May was right to change her mind, 67% will treat this as a normal election, 21% lead for Tories with 39% lead for econimic competence

-Pound take a fall before May's speech due to uncertainty but rallies to four month high after news comes out, stock market takes a massive hit, biggest since referendum result due to pound rise

-Fiona Hill, May's Chief of staff, formally complaining over Sky News speculating May was going to go due to poor health

-The lines Tory MPs have been ordered to take

-Heavy speculation government will do a clampdown on energy prices

-Tom Blenkinsop to retire , MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland has said he can not in good faith stand under this leadership, served in various committees and not a Corbynite to say the least. Did well during Redcar crises with some forceful speeches

-Apparently Tories in former Lib Dem seats are not happy at this election

-Greens already pushing for place in leadership debate

-Ladbrookes have Tories at 1/10, Labour 7/1, Lib Dems 33/1, UKIP 100/1 and Corbyn to be replaced this year 1/5

-Labour's NEC warning they may have to force some to run in unwinnable seats again and impose candidates but rumours that Corbyn will try to impose trigger ballots for existing MP's has not gone down well

-Odd tweet by president Tusk "It was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit: first an earthquake and the tension rises."

-Seems Sir Lynton Crosby will be hired by Tories for election

-Sir Stramer says May has failed to unify the country and build a national consensus

-David Davies denies May broke her word on no election, calls it a bold move and needed for a Brexit mandate

-Abbott says shadow cabinet is unified behind Corbyn and Labour are prepared, says Richmond shows people of UK are not behind May's version of Brexit and May is panicking

-Guy Verhofstadt says this election says the people of UK to shape Brexit deal

-Manchester Gorton elections cancelled since general election is happening

-Alan Johnson is retiring due to age, the amiable and popular big beast of the Blair years though he will be perhaps more be remembered for failure to take opportunities to become leader and for failure to win for Remain

-May refuses to appear in TV debates, Sturgeon and Farron suggesting empty chairing May, Corbyn says it shows lack of leadership

-Lib Dems claiming 2,500 new members since May's announcement

-May got standing ovation by 1922 committee

-Markets seem to believe that May, if she can win a large majority, can free herself from the hard Brexiteers and do a more palatable Brexit

=====

-Lammy accuses Ofcom of ducking it's diversity responsibilities

-Umunna attacks David Davis

-Zahawi on North Korea

-Professor Curtice suggests May could lose Tory voters who disagree with her version of Brexit and possible she gets smaller majority, says he didn't see this coming

-Peirs Morgan reaction after interviewing Corbyn "I can't help liking @jeremycorbyn. Like Wenger, a decent principled man - but seems oblivious to reality"

-Nice teasing by Ashworth on May starting her campaign with U-turn, he and IDS did well on DP

-Banks to stand against Carswell

-Lucy Powell says Blenkinsop leaving shows this is going to be a very touch election for Labour

-NUT narrowly decide (50.6%) not to affiliate to the Labour party for the first time

-Jess Philips accuses May of lying and opportunism, of gameplaying and giving an election people don't want

-A lot on the left really annoyed at May going back on her word and seeking an election which they see as partisan (some of whom have spent months attacking her for no mandate)

-Mhairi Black will stay having recently bemoaned Westminster as a waste of time that she hated which had led to speculation she would go. I suspect there may be a few who might have gone in 2020 who, due to surprise nature of the election, stay on for another five years says parties do not need the headache of finding a new candidate quickly

-Sir Cable standing in Twickenham again

-Sir Winnick to stand again

-Deutsche Bank to stop betting against pound as considers the election a game-changer

=====

-Steve Richards says liberal, centre-ground and modernizer is misused

-Zoe Williams (clear to guess who she backs for Unite early on) state of unions

-Bush suspects Rudd's barrista visa plan is foolish

-Dan Hodges doesn't expect May to stay as PM long and Dan Jarvis recent failed coup

-Ashley Cowburn questions idea of May fighting for "just about managing"

-Nick Hilton doubts Corbyn will go if defeated

-Rampen fears election is bad for Scottish Labour and the union

-Owen Jones sets out how Labour might win
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:47 pm

PMQ's: Corbyn goes on broken promise, on lacking leadership as she hides from TV debate, if economy is so good why do so many suffer? His delivery a lot easier and lighter then usual as he took on the economy, doesn't quite land the "Tories consistently push their promises back 5 years" but there was something not quite killer despite decent questions and he faded as time wore on, Cooper did better in pinning May lies with her question. May tries to say PMQ's is enough and dodges rest of questions, had a touch of arrogance about her which is not a great look. May did at least get defence going on education and was a good one, did then start going into defence for rest of questions but she was lacking till her late "vote for me" speech. Angus Robertson goes on Mail headline but May tries to save Mail by going partisan and accuses SNP of using Westminster to frustrate Brexit then defends freedom of press, Robertson tries to press her to debate with Sturgeon and May goes on attack on SNP policies. May quoted Labour MP's complaints about Corbyn every time a Labour MP spoke, Skinner had good question about election expenses.

=====

-SNP to abstain from dissolving government but it passes 522 votes to 13 (SDLP and some Labour backbenchers)

-Seems the only cabinet members consulted were David Davis and Hammond on if to go to election while Boris and Rudd were given a heads up before rest of cabinet

-May says she prefers campaigning on door steps over TV debates and doesn't pay attention to tweets, she didn't think Remainers were saboteurs and is building a theme of SNP and others trying to prop up Corbyn

-Press noting the election is helping overshadowing the election expenses issue and means by-elections would be become unlikely

-Blunt describes North Korea as a attention seeking child of China and urges USA to calm it's rehotric

-McDonnell welcomes early election as chance to decide path of Brexit and kind of society we want, May is doing this as she knows economy is going to turn nasty soon, wont increase overall tax burden

-Thornberry says Labour haven't picked a side of Brexit (I get what she means, not sure those are wise words)

-Daily Mail goes “Crush the saboteurs.”, Sun predicts Blue Murder which would normally just be a bit over the top but possibly a tad tactless given we had an MP murdered in our last major polling

-FTSE100 loses all it's gains this year but pound holds steady and FTSE250 bounces back

-Irish Foreign Minister Charlie Flanagan fears impact election will have on Stormont talks

-Hammond willing to sell RBS at a loss

-Brokenshire says Stormont process will continue as normal

-Media really not impressed by May's interview justifications for elections like there being opponents or her vague answers

-BBC profiles Theresa May

-More than 150,000 people applied to register to vote yesterday

-Sturgeon accuses May of being UKIP lite and SNP of being her only opposition, will join progressive alliance but doubts Labour will be in any shape to form one

-Ruth Davidson sees election as a chance for May to lessen influence of hard Brexiteers

-Concerns as nobody is quite sure how to cancel the Manchester Gorton election (whose MP would not sit in Commons at all before general election), Cabinet Office going to get MP's to vote through powers to cancel it

-ITV to host election debate chaired by Julie Etchingham, BBC says they are planning to do at least one

-Farron says he does not considering being gay a sin, been accusations he has been... dodging around that question in past

-Greens want 16 and 17 year olds to be allowed to vote but I imagine way too late to get that through Commons

-Downing Street refuses to commit to keeping 0.7% aid target

-UUP and DUP looking at election pact but SDLP rules out one with Sinn Feinn

-Corbyn rules out progressive alliance

-Labour NEC confirms no trigger ballots, imposed candidates (due to time) with applications for those replacing retiring MP's to be this weekend, all female shortlists will remain by usual process

-Accusations on social media that Mundell shouted b-word at Cooper during PMQ's, he says he said "leadership pitch" which seems rather more likely.

-IMF sees banking Brexit uncertainty as one of the big world economic dangers

-Javid says housing market is broken with decades of too few houses build but foreign owners is far smaller problem then people think

=====

-Blair, Gina Miller and Dorell urges people to vote for candidates based on Brexit rather then party lines

-Lidington in good form in Commons

-One Labour Mp quipped "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for... the Guardian jobs page."

-Woodcock says still time for Corbyn to go for a caretaker leader

-Sir Cable doubts there will be a Lib Dem-Labour Coaltion, partly becuase no chance of Corbyn getting anywhere near power

-Gisela Stuart doubts Labour can win and is considering her future

-Business Committee chair Ian Wright retiring as time to do something else, quite a few impressed by his holding business leaders to account

-Clegg staying, would be last of quad if he manages to get relected

-Nick Boles to stay with his battle against cancer going well

-John Pugh going

-Lord Kinnock doubts he will see a Labour government before he dies

-Osborne leaving Commons so he can concentrate on being editor but pointedly says "for now". He told the Evening Standard too late to go to normal print

-Former DWP Secretary Andrew Smith leaving due to age

-Sir Swayne getting annoyed at defending to constituents government policy (like no election) only to be left red faced by U-turn

-Ken Clarke staying

-Natalie McGarry fainted but is thankfully fine

-Simon Danczuk begging Labour to let him stand as their candidate but the NEC does not seem sympathetic

-Labour MP's heaping lots of praise on Cooper for PMQ's, some wondering if support is starting to rally around her

=====

-Kuessnnberg on why May changed her mind

-Douglas Fraser on economic side of elections for Scotland

-Brain Taylor on Scotland election

-Kevin Connelly [on EU reaction

-D'Arcy on the election timetable and what it means for Parliament

-Toynbee rages about Corbyn and mourns upcoming disaster

-Michel Chessum says if Labour take Brexit head on, they can win

-Chelley Ryan blames Labour right and not Corbynites for Labour woes and says Corbyn must remain as leader no mater what happens

-John Ashmore on lines May is likely to use on Corbyn during campaign

-Eaton on Tory fears they won't get majority of 100 or more

-Stephen Daisley does not like TV debates

-Isabel Hardman deeply unhappy at May's broken promise
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:40 pm

-Corbyn says he will prove the establishment wrong in this election and he will show one does not need to doff cap to the powerful to win, he will break the cosy cartel, accuses SNP of not being a progressive party and ideologically drunk and morally bankrupt Tories of shifting blame for people's suffering onto helpless, tries to divide business into wealth extractors and wealth creators which is having the same problems Miliband did when he tried it. Corbyn apparently coming across well with his stump speeches, passionate and inverting some of his weak points to his favour and taking media Q&A will help given May refused

-Ruth Davidson backs 07.% aid target, backed by Mitchell and Bill Gates

-Tory election phrase seems to be "strong and stable" vs "coalition of chaos". By the end of the election, you will be screaming every time you hear it

-Youguv puts Tories on 42%

-McDonnell suggests those earning 70k a year will face more tax which I suspect may not go down well

-Despite attempts by the government, European Commission is taking European Medicines Agency and European Banking Authority off our shores. A leaked document suggests they want to us to pay for relocation and all their travel expenses

-Number 10 commits to migration target but only Bradley and Rudd floated otherwise

-Thornberry says Corbyn is close in terms of political philosophy with Ed Miliband

-Sir Fallon says Putin would welcome Labour win due to feebleness on defence (this is going to be such a pleasant election)

-Sterling rises but businesses using the election distraction for bad news dumping

-Britain’s Green Investment Bank sold to Australian bank Macquarie to horror of green groups

-Labour claiming 2,500 more members since election was called, Lib Dems say 8,000

-Civil service enters purdah

-Labour rule out a second Brexit referendum having spent most of the day floating the idea

-Willie Rennie pressing hard on SNP's refusal to commit to returning to EU

-Brokenshire to force though emergency legislation to allow N.Ireland councils to set business rates

-Unite close their election then suspend Gerard Coyne which is not a good look

-David Dimbleby doing this 10th election campaign. Even though he is supposed to have stopped

-Dawn Butler has a disaster of an interview as she falsely accuses one company of tax avoidance and says Labour plan to scrap grammar schools which is not policy

===

-Sir Leigh calls for end of fixed term parliament act

-Sir Simon Hughes and Sir Ed Davey running again for Lib Dems

-Gisela Stuart, having chaired Vote Leave and acted to reach out to labour voters to get them to vote for Brexit, is retiring

-Farage suggests he will run in South Thanet as he feels cheated there and warns Nuttall has six weeks to prove himself

-Suzanne Evans won't stand for UKIP but writes their manifesto

-Dromey had horrible time on DP

-Carswell retiring and backing Tories in Clacton, Banks seems to be pulling out of the race there

-Peirs Corbyn calls BBC evil and that alternative media will help Corbyn triumph as it did Trump

-Burnham retires due to hopes of becoming mayor

-Lord Ashdown backs a Green-Lib Dem pact but Farron not keen

-Ian Lavery getting praised for his passionate introduction speech for Corbyn

-Labour activists boo ITV for asking Corbyn an awkward question "our poll ratings suggest people do not believe you. And you attack the elite. But aren’t you just part of an Islington elite." which Corbyn actually dealt with well by pointing out Islington has a lot of poverty

-David T C Davies calls for UK to ditch the European Arrest Warrant

-Fiona Mactaggart retires as she has lost her passion as she is worn down by having to give depressing news to her constitutions after 20 years

-Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson running to replace Steve Rotherham

-Dave Anderson, shadow secretary of state for Scotland and Northern Ireland, retiring due to health

-Harman to stay

====

-Simon Jenkins not impressed by May and warns she has to get her manifesto right

-Suzanne Moore on general election and failure on all sides

-Owen Jones on what he learnt from his Brexit tour

-Katheryn Gaw worries N.Ireland will be hit hard by this election

-George Parker on why May went to polls

-Bush on Labour fighting two campaigns

-Mark Wallace on Tory selection process

-Peter Duncan fears election puts union on the line in Scotland

-Steve Richards warns election victory would change nothing of May's troubles
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:51 am

Dong Zhou wrote:[
-Farron says he does not considering being gay a sin, been accusations he has been... dodging around that question in past


Is that exactly how he phrased it? In which case I suspect he has dodged the question again. I would say that I don't think being gay is a sin, its the actions that are sinful.
“I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.” ― Nelson Mandela
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:15 am

Sun Fin wrote:
Dong Zhou wrote:[
-Farron says he does not considering being gay a sin, been accusations he has been... dodging around that question in past


Is that exactly how he phrased it? In which case I suspect he has dodged the question again. I would say that I don't think being gay is a sin, its the actions that are sinful.


When asked if gay people are sinners “No I do not.”, later talked of “celebrating people’s right to be who they are, to love who they love, to marry who they marry”. and extending marriage as right now “It doesn’t include full equal marriage for people who are transgender and our fight for rights and freedom will continue,”
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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