UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:14 pm

-Farron says police lack resources not powers and we mustn't give up our freedoms, control orders are knee jerk response, Tpim's underused, he isn't running to be Pope but he is running as a political leader

-Corbyn says May's speech on terrorism should heave waited till the evening and Tories refused to coordinate how long the "no campaigning" rule would last, would call Macron and Merkel to change tone of EU talks, would call Trump to urge him not to withdraw from Paris and to reconsider his tweet about Khan

-Sturgeon fears too much data could hamper intelligence services, we already have wide ranging powers and guard against hampering civil liberties, refuses to say "and no third referendum for such and such years"

-Richard Warry on parties policy on security while BBC has manifesto guide

-May wants a Board of Trade with 9 regional trade commissioners, Lib Dems wonder if this was written on parchment

-UTV N.Ireland leader debate delayed when Naomi Long felt faint but thankfully fine

-New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and US Conference of Mayors defends Khan who has suggested Trump's visit be cancelled

-Leane Wood urges care with language or risk dividing communities

-Cairns accuses Corbyn of opposing shoot-to-kill (Corbyn denies that)

-ICM gives 11% lead, Opinium (which were most accurate in 2017) give 7 lead Scottish Youguv has Labour just a point behind Tories and Corbyn surging to -5

-Khan warns police cuts will hit frontline

-Boris opposes independent inquiry into London Bridge attack, says Trump visit will go ahead, excited by free trade deal with EU, says Corbyn has been muddleheaded and soft on security (including opposing the foundation of MI5 which is technically true while being heavily heavily dishonest) while siding with anyone adversary to UK, losing Trident would be undermining the defence of our allies, uses Zaphod Beeblebrox to describe a Labour-Lib-SNP coalition, Corbyn youths don't remember the realities of communism or socialism, questions if the funding of extremists report actually exists (if it doesn't, would be quite a conspiracy)

-Retail sales down 0.4% which is being put down to inflation squeeze, rents fall for first time since 2009, pound not liking electoral uncertainty

-Abbott has difficult skynews interview as seems to struggle with detail and didn't' seem to have read the report they were discussing then pulls out of Woman Hour's due to illhealth (Thornbery sent instead) then Evening Standards husting with same replacement (Osborne very thankful to Thornberry but remarks " It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days.."). Which either explains the performance or got pulled due to performance amidst heavy rumours McDonnell and Corbyn have been trying to keep her off the airwaves tut she arranges her own media appearances without telling them. Patel accuses Abbott of going into hiding

-Rudd says funding of extremism was never meant to be published (news to most I imagine), warns no government can ever promise that no attack will ever get through

-May not a fan of the recent song about her but as she points out most wouldn't be a fan of such a song about themselves, outright says Trump was wrong about Khan, she neds to have tough talks with Saudi Arabia about their funding of extremists, expects intelligence services to review London Bridge attack as they are the Manchester one

-Nuttall says he won't go if they fail to get a seat, says attacks show establishment have got complacent, wants debate about arming police (given the police say no, I don't think that would see any change)

-Carwyn Jones indicates he isn't keen on Barnett formula and wants reform, Dugdale vows Labour will keep Barnett formula with UK Labour getting behind their Scottish leader

-Clegg bemoans May's failure to prepare public for Brexit compromise and chances of no deal is much higher then he once though

=====

-Baroness Warsi and Umunna call for no Trump state visit. I feel Trump should be made to pass a reading comprehension test at the very least before he can come

-Baroness Warsi on how to tackle extremism, ditto IDS

-Angel of the North sculptor Antony Gormley backs Corbyn, Geldof backs Lib Dems

-Cooper calls May too brittle and too rigid to be a good leader, says Corbyn is working hard

=====

-Tom Kibasi on three strategic big errors by May

-BBC Trending looks at what pro Brexit Facebook groups are thinking, Tory groups and Remainer groups and Corbynintes.

-Aditya Chakrabortty on the first post-crash election

-Clare Foges on four ways to tackle extremism

-Professor Lyndsey Stonebridge unhappy with attitudes on immigration

-John Ashmore on 10 seats to watch
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:47 pm

-Corbyn rules out second referendum, says Abbott has done a good job and is sometimes treated unfairly, election campaign needs to be positive, last day's slogan is "24 hours to save the NHS"

-Sturgeon says Dugdale told her in private conversation that Labour will drop opposition to independence referendum after election and justices breaching private confidence by a interview Dugdale did where Dugdale said they chatted with Sturgeon (but said nothing about what Sturgeon said so not justified). Dugdale fully denies this

-May wants to impose controls on terror suspects against whom it is not thought there is enough evidence to bring a prosecution and is willing to change human rights laws to get it (Labour, Lib Dems and SNP say no need to do that). Also talks longer prison sentences and making it easier to deport those convinced of terrorism. Was meant to be about investment but frankly, May could do that bit on song and nobody would pay attention after the security speech. Says wants Welsh farmers to be able to export to EU

-Opnium final poll gives 7 lead, Youguv Wales says 73% of youngsters would vote Labour with only 14% Tories with Welsh Labour overall having 12% with biggest share since Blair in 2001, ICM final poll 12%

-Plymouth Herald says 1,500 voters in the city have not received their postal ballots with 24 hours to go.

-May and Corbyn both skip the traditional end of campaign interviews with Today, Sir Stramer says Corbyn should do it, they also skip traditional one with Jon Snow.

-Lyn Brown acting as shadow home secretary given Abbott's illness and her leave has become indefinite. Barry Gardiner has said there is a serious long term condition, I wish her a full recovery

-Lib Dems accuse Zac Goldsmith, Nicola Blackwood, Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Priti Patel and Dominic Raab of pulling out of hustings

-Clegg says Corbyn and May have colluded on Brexit silence

-Nuttall says attacks have vindicated UKIP on immigration but he wishes price had not been so high, May was complacent at best on security but far better then Labour leadership

-Voter register increased by more than 10%

-N.Ireland debate hit by pulls outs, DUP sending Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as Foster is going to to Belgium for the Battle of Messines commemorations. Dodds has family illness, Sinn Fein sending John O'Dwod as Michelle O'Neill is ill

- SDLP's Margaret Ritchie seems to have been hit by a fake leaflet "in her name" and has reported it to police

-Andrew Davies denies spat with Cairns or that there is any plot against himself

-Welsh Lib Dems forced to apologize after Facebook ad claimed Plaid supported Hard Brexit.

-Mail, Telegraph, Evening Standard, Sun back Tories, Finical Times disturbed by lack of talk about economy during campaign

-Seems like May has unleashed Boris onto campaign, I wonder if she really ever wanted to do that

-Ashworth admits he can't recall cost of prescription but shows humour about it

-Leanee Wood says May's campaign was most disastrous in living memory

-McDonnell describes Corbyn as "most honest and decent and principled and strong leader that we’ve had, maybe in generations", says IFS isn't infallible (heresy! :P)

===

-Greg Knight's election video
getting attention (I don't see the fuss myself)

-Ed Vaziey wishes Tories had done more of campaign on economic record. Vaziey and Lammy had fun on DP

-Quentin Letts asks May for a promise of no elections or referendums for five years. He sort of gets the last one

-Momentum gets 8,000 volunteers for polling day which is 3,000 more then expected

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-Kuessenberg May up's the ante and final election thoughts

-Chris Cook on where May and Corbyn have visited and what it tells us (final part) while Kenneth Macdonald and Marc Ellison do same for Scotland

-Mandy Rhodes interviews Professor Curtice

-Shanker Singham embraces competition

-Alex Massie on poor Dugdale

-Behr says Trump has damaged May, we need EU for intelligence security

-Eaton believes anti-Corbyn figures will wait awhile before acting if Labour lose

-Mark Ritson on digital campaigning could prove key for Tories

-Jason Cowley (long read) expects Labour to face a shattering defeat and how they can come back
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:09 pm

Usual no read till one has voted

quite nice election day weather actually
-Sturgeon says May arrogant to call election and probably regrets it now

-May saying the worst thing she has ever done is run through a field of wheat has got a fair bit of mocking

-Thornberry been using crib sheet when covering for Abbott and openly admits it (which is fair enough)

-Comres final poll gave 10 lead, Surveymonkey 4, Panelbase 8, Youguv 7

-Corbyn says experts thought election was already decided but they have been proven wrong, Labour has shifted debate to the left even if they lose, says voting would honour the victims of the terrorism attacks. His last day rallies were packed and full of noise by all accounts

-McDonnell promises a budget by mid-July if Labour wins, compares Tory campaigns to Goldsmith

-Lots of eyes on Angus Robertson seat

-Sterling rises due to belief in markets that May will win

-Woman's Equality candidate Nimco Ali receives death threat letter signed by "Jo Cox"

-Been noted uni polling booths have had long lines, if the young really have turned up then this could be very interesting

-May's twitter accounted tweeted 17 times since election was called, lowest of the political leaders. Corbyn's was used 703 times

- Police are investigating Copeland’s Conservatives after posters for their candidate, Trudy Harrison, were put up near polling stations. Harrison says it was not by her or her team
-Concerns that Keele University polling has been turning away eligible voters

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-I'm really not sure what the purpose of "bin the Sun" campaign is given it requires buying several copies in the first place

-Apparently Tessa Munt been asked "Why didn’t it say May, Corbyn or Farron on the voting slip?" by youngsters. What happened with the parents and schools to explain our electoral system?

-Blackpool Gazette do half their front page with Tory ad, other half on food banks

-People having fun with the #usepens conspiracy theory

-Alliance candidate for Belfast West, Sorcha Eastwood, married on polling day

- Jack Monroe decided to raise the ante on the dog at polling station photo's and took her guinea pig Sergeant Pepper

-A carriage on the heritage Wensleydale Railway at Leeming Bar in North Yorkshire being used as polling booth while there is a windmill being used as well

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-Professor Rosie Campbell on on how people choose who to vote for

-BBC reality check on if weather affects turnout

-Jenny Mathews on some unusual pledges from smaller parties

-Philip Simm on why the decline in candidates for Scottish seats

-Buzfeed spot Tories have found a spending loophole for online adverts

-Ross Douthat wonders why elite less alarmed by Corbyn then they were Le Pen

-Jon Craig gives player ratings to Labour and Tory campaign teams

-Stephen Bush looks at Labour surge

-Suzanne Moore not impressed by Tories or Labour

-Owen Jones rallies Labour to upset the odds
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:46 pm

Election: Hung Parliment, Tories may have agreed deal with DUP as largest party, turnout 69% Exit polls indicated Tories with hung parliament and SNP taking a beating while Lib Dems grew and UKIP wiped out. First to declare was Newcastle upon Tyne Central which Labour held with a 2% swing in Labour favour hinting at a potentially good night with Houghton and Sunderland South gutted to be seconds by minutes (also Labour). McDonnell said after exit poll it would make May's position untenable, Caroline Lucas indicated she would back Labour on an informal basis, Sinn Feinn quickly made clear they wouldn't take their seats, Osborne says May would have to resign and it would be a catastrophic result, UKIP said May's hubris had put Brexit in jeopardy, Labour calls it punishment for Tories taking the people for granted, DUP said they would not Corbyn Labour. Bookies quickly put out leadership odds for Tories, no major upsets early but quickly became clear Rudd was in major fight and UKIP had collapsed in north-east. When it was clear Labour had comfortably held Darlington with Tories only getting a 0.2% swing, it confirmed May's dreams of a landslide were dead while first loss of a sea t was Scotland's first declared seat, Margaret Ferrier hit by 16% swing in Labour's further in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, surprise as Tory target Tooting saw Rosena Allin-Khan increase majority by 12,000, Justine Greening's majority reduced by 10%. First Wales result saw Labour hold Wrexham

First major shock was Finical Secretary Jane Ellison losing Battersea then Nick Clegg losing, both to Labour. Quickly came clear that Tories were getting pounded in London, Angus Robertson lost on 14% swing to Tories and SNP losses seemed to be on several 10+ swings, May lost key ally Ben Gummer, Canterbury after 96 years of Tory MP to Labour who had never held it with Rosie Duffield ousting Julian Brazier by just 187 votes, UKIP still cant take Clacton without Carswell, housing minister Barwell lost, Salmond was out, Rudd hanged on by 346 votes, Deputy Speaker Natascha Engel lost her seat, Goldsmith won by 45 votes, Stephen Gethins by 2 votes, Ian Austin by 22. Philip Davies ousted, Craig Mackinlay held his seat


Tories: Share up 5.5% to 42.4% with 13,650,900 votes (bar Kensington) but loss of 12 seats, loss of majority. Bad in Wales, actually went backwards and missed key target seats, not helped perhaps by Carins vs Davies, did badly in England where they lost cabinet members like Ellison, Gummer, Barwell plus 4 junior ministers (Simon Kirby, Rob Wilson, Nicola Blackwood, James Wharton), failed to take key seats and May is done for. She called the election expecting to increase her majority but from the moment that manifesto came out, it spiralled. Perhaps the econimic squeeze of Brexit hasn't helped but also most everything else is down to her, not costing the manifesto cost the econimic credibility argument, too little sellable policies, fox-hunting and others gave rise to nasty party, failed to adapt strategy as things went wrong (bad for Crosby), made it all about her but when she uturned on social care, she looked weak, weak, weak and never recovered. Ducking out of TV debates became a talking point, further diminishing her reputation, even security didn't go her way as Corbyn moved better. She lacked nimbleness on feet, she looked awkward and uneasy, lacking a human touch while lost her sense of boldness, she seems ill-suited to elections. Having made the election about her, she can not hope to survive. Ruth Davidson on the other hand has managed a heroic result, Scottish Tories clawing some major seats back while her campaign style seems a contrast to May, she has been the rare brightspot and kept Tories within enough distance that they can turn to DUP.

The question is, when does May go and who replaces her, do they then go to polls? Crosby's reputation would also seem shot now.

Labour: Up 9.5% (according to Fraser Nelson, increased their vote share more than any other leader in any other election since Attlee in 1945) to an impressive 40%, 29 extra seats and 12,858,652 votes. Welsh Labour managed a distinct campaign and after early nerves, came back strongly with some surprise wins while Carywn Jones have welcomed chance to just put distance from UK Labour over long term though even Corbyn's enemies admit he has helped with Welsh victories. Dugdale will be pleased for rare bits of good news while Corbyn... what a campaign. Not perfect with a few memory fades and his refusal to let go of his opposition to Trident but he got pretty much everything else right: a popular and costed manifesto that had credibility and something to offer the public, he grew and grew into the campaign, the sense of annoyance was gone when asked questions, replaced by a lot of warmth, passion, humour, he knows how to play to crowds, he charmed during interviews. Corbyn was unleashed and along Davidson, was clearly the most effective leadership campaigners in the election.

Corbyn can not be ousted, he might not last five years (age, whether he wants to go through the parliamentary bit he struggles so badly with) but it will be on his and his allies terms if he goes. His side now no longer have 1983 cited at them, they will claim (the right will argue it was a Ed "Red Tory" Miliband manifesto and any decent leader would have been beaten May) they could have done better if Corbyn hadn't tarted so behind and will demand right to be listened to in party debates, to be taken seriously. The right of the party will have to fall in line, I can't see how they can avoid being in cabinet on mass anymore and they can't rebel against him but Corbyn will need to work on party management to prevent further trouble in long term. Clearly inspired the youth, the question will be how to build on that. I do wonder if Corbyn has a cieling and if the left need to look at a replacement who can build on his work without certain issues that put other voters off. Should keep Corbyn for the next election as will be quite soon.

SNP: Down -1.7 to 3.0%, 977,569 votes and down 21 seats. Was expected to be a difficult night as Scottish Tories had revivied and SNP could only go backwards but this was far worse then expected. Lost their Westminster leader, chief whip, foreign affairs spokesman and international trade spokeswoman but will be pleased to keep Wishart when expected he would go. Also lost ground to Scottish Labour who were soon as weak, lost some of their best political operatives in Westminster with questions about quality of those they have left, it has put a real stopper on their referendum demands or some of their anti-Tory sticks. It may also put Sturgeon under some, but not fatal pressure, as seems like she is losing popularity as her record becomes more and more under scrutiny.

Lib Dems: -0.5% to 7.4% but +4 seats and 2,367,048 votes. Though they lost Clegg and Mullohand, failed to Cambridge or Wells, now without a Welsh MP for first time since 1859. they welcomed back Sir Davey, Sir Cable, Swinson and given the general squeeze on the smaller parties, gaining seats probably counts as a decent result. They clearly got their Remain strategy wrong and there will be concerns about Farron's (who will be concerned at seeing his majority down to 777) performance but they are slowly clambering back. Slowly. Be somewhat surprised if Farron went.

N.Ireland: SDLP wiped out, Lady Hermon held on but was pretty much DUP who grew to 10 so became Kingmakers and Sinn Feinn who gobbled up everyone else

Others: Plaid will be delighted to be +1 when smaller parties being squeezed, UKIP's disastrous post Brexit period sees them wiped out as a parliamentary force with 10.8% collapse of share to 1.8, Greens found themselves squeezed as well but Caroline Lucas held onto Brighton so they will be pleased under circumstances.

=====

-My thanks to departing MP's for their public service, I know the next few weeks will be extremely painful. Best of luck new MP's in a much underappreciated job

-Paul Nuttall has resigned and deleted all his social media, says UKIP will remain the guard dogs of Brexit and won't go away, joking he could job swap with Farage but said he needed a year of calm to restructure the party. UKIP's general secretary Jonathan Arnott as resigned saying UKIP has lost it's way and he disagreed with way they fought campaign in a hardline way. Paul Oakden becomes caretaker leader

Nuttall seemed the good choice to replace Farage, seen as having a good touch with the northern working class, a capable deputy who could unite a usually fractious party but almost as soon as elected due to desperation, things went wrong. The questions about his honesty became a joke and ruined his credibility, tried to cement his authority with early victories and moving out Carswell but defeats meant Faragisasters were back in influence. Struggled to keep UKIP relevant while his own performances were poor, lost his sense of authority and ease, became stiff and poor delivery.

-Paul Farrelly, Labour’s candidate in Newcastle-under-Lyme where Keele University is, will be taking the clear issues with polling stations having out of date lists to Electoral Commission

-Sterling plunged when exit poll came out and kept going down as results came out then when May was clearly not going to resign but rallied as talks of DUP deal emerged, FTSE100 thriving but domestic based shares falling, business groups and credit agencies raising their eyes

-Labour pointing out May said she couldn't be PM if she lost six seats and Corbyn would be PM.

-Eyes on Boris...

-Tom Watson says bad night for media who demonized Corbyn (Watson the famed Corbyn loyalist) and Boris is sharpening his knife, May punished for being negative and divisive while Corbyn had a strong campaign

-More Tory MP's in Scotland then panda's now

-Corbyn needs to be a bit more careful with high-fives after getting Thornberry in the chest. Corbyn calls for May to go but not sure he can really say, having got let votes, his would be one more representative of the people

-May says country needs stability and as largest party, up to them to provide it. Says her friends in DUP will help provide that certainty and stability but her speech outside Downing Street failing to mention lost seats or showing contrition has really further angered MP's+amused press. She is hastily saying she is sorry for those who lost seats but a tad late, won't commit to full term as PM, hints her advisers role will change

-MP's reactions to MP: An exhausted Soubry says manifesto has a lot of good things but badly explained, May had dreadful campaign and should go, Rob Wilson blames defeat on awful manifesto that helped inspired his student heavy area "exocet straight through the heart of our main supporters," which he blames on May's small circle of advisers. IDS says leadership contest would be a catastrophe, Philip Davies (who lost his seat) says they made a pig's ear of the campaign, Nigel Evans says Tories have shot themselves in the head. Leading Remainer Nicky Morgan initially says May should stay and is a capable leader but calling the election was a bad misjudgement but then says there is much fury that at some in future she should go, key backbencher Steve Baker has given May firm backing for parliament but demands May's aides go, Dr Sarah Wollaston bemoans poor choice of policies and negative aggressive campaign, says May's advisers need to go for failure to consult before picking poisonous policies, Neil Carmichael feels he was ousted by Soft Brexiteers and bemoans lack of positive vision. Heidi Allen wants May gone in six months, says if advised badly then why did May pick said advisers

My sense is May will survive next few weeks as Tories fear chaos in short term and don't want a leadership fight now but they will demand the heads of her advisers (May has always been very loyal to them), a wider circle of advisers+more consultation but when time is right (aka before election), she is gone. I still would be surprised if she sees the year out


-Sturgeon says SNP won Scottish election (true. Technically) but will take time to consider response to election results. Once she had time, pledges to fight with other parties to keep Tories out, calls Salmond a giant of Scottish politics, needs to be end to hard Brexit, does acknowledge referendum was an issue but warns without sleep for 36 hours means she won't commit to anything

-Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi is our first turbaned Sikh MP, Preet Gill becomes first female Sikh MP

-Farron says May should be ashamed and resign, been a good election in difficult circumstances, history will be kind to Clegg, wants Brexit talks delayed

-McDonnell expects Boris bid for power soon, can't see DUP-Tory lasting long

-EU being very sympathetic as they tell us they either expect us to keep to timetable and get Brexit talks started soon or "talks when your ready but we aren't moving the end point for you"

-Record amount of females elected (192) and non white MP's (51), a record 19 LGBT MP's, for first time more than half (51%) of MPs educated in state comprehensive schools

-Lots of fingers being pointed at David Davis for pushing for snap election

-Martin Schulz seeking a meeting with Corbyn which is a boost to Corbyn's prestige, left-wing parties across Europe sending a lot of congrats to Corbyn (imagine what would have happened if he won)

-Arlene Foster has said she finds it difficult to see how May can survive while DUP make clear on special status within EU is a key part of their demands (and they want to ensure Corbyn can't use Sinn Feiin, they remember the IRA days) while DUP are making clear talks have only started, made big play on standing up for union. Rumours they want Peter Robinson ennobled

-John Swinney says independence referendum played a significant part in defeats so they need to hold off

-Purdah remains in force

-Alliance warns DUP-Tory alliance makes it hard for government to act as neutral chair in Stormont talks

-Reshuffle expected tomorrow but Hammond, Rudd, Boris, Davies and Fallon confirmed as staying in post. Aka May daren't move against them now

-Ruth Davidson backs May but hints at need to change on style of Brexit and is clearly (and unsurprisingly) not keen on working with DUP.

-Kensington still being counted by time I posted this (of course, will be just as I do), apparently being a Brexiteer in a very Remain area did not go down well and vote so tight, the tellers could getting exhausted.

=====

-From guardian liveblog "(Note to future leaders: general elections are not always the best time for “brave and honest” conversations with voters.)"

-Matthew Parris "Revenge of the young on the older generation", Robert Harris "It is becoming ever clearer that this country was completely bleeped by that stupid bloody referendum", Sam Coates "Running through fields of wheat is now officially the second worst thing Theresa May ever did", Petson predicts autumn election and sees it as major generational divide (young=Labour, Tories=old)

-Staggers blog excitement was over the top as if exit poll put Labour as sole government

-Lord Hain says Corbyn deserves credit for energising the party

-Farage says May is toast and Tories shouldn't have chosen a Remainer to lead, praises Corbyn's campaigning skills and expects second referendum (at which point he would return to frontline politics)

-Owen Smith congratulates Corbyn who has "clearly got something" and willing to hug him if asked

-Osborne says hard Brexit is dead (as does Cable) and May could be shortest PM, she holds office but not power. Headline this evening? Queen of Denial. Osborne is sticking the knife in hard

-Salmond says not the last we have heard of him

-Clegg warns of generational divide

-Lord Ashdown says most more polarized then ever

-Ed Balls predicts second election

- Simon Danczuk lost deposit

-Umunna would be willing to serve under Corbyn

-Lord O’Donnell predicts EU will use result to drag out process rather then substantial talks so we become up against deadline

-Miliband say May authority destroyed

-Rail Union say some Tory losses in south due to Southern rail

-Jonathan Powell fears DUP-Tory alliance could harm peace process

-Robert Peston has a very sweary quote from a unamed Tory Mp saying they all hate May, she has screwed them badly

=====

-Kuessneberg's thoughts

-James Lansdale on how result may impact Brexit

-David Schnider with a good joke about what one can find in a polling booth
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:25 pm

-By mid afternoon Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, May's chief of staff resigns , Timothy taking responsibility for the social care policy (which many Tories blamed him for), Hill doing a usual "been a pleasure". Not all Tories pleased, Timothy had allies for his Brexiteering and his intelligence, while critics are slamming May for surrendering his closest loyal allies to stay in power (becuase no PM would ever do that...)

-After six years, Scotland Office minister Lord Andrew Dunlop retires

-David Jones, a junior minister under David Davies, says he supports May but is unsure if she will stay on

-Kensington falls to Labour by 20 votes after three recounts. This got missed but Labour lost Mansfield for first time since 1923 and Tories took Stoke-on-Trent South for first time in 80 years

-Macron calls may to congratulate her, talks on working together on security, Trump calls May, Sanders congratulates Corbyn, Merkel says she expects Brexit talks to start on time but feels too polite to comment on election as a whole

-Davidson says she has got reassurances from May about DUP and has apparently reminded May Scottish Tories outnumber DUP. It is clear Davidson intends to wield a fair bit of influence on stopping DUP turning party to right and (along with DUP) a soft Brexit. In essence May's government could be facing a coalition of two parties here, DUP and Scottish Tories depending on how strong a hold Davidson has on her MP's

-Sun says May is doomed while the usually paywalled Times has tweeted out it's editorial. saying we have been left leaderless at a key time, Tories have failed to win majority for all but one of the last campaigns and May is fatally wounded

-Grayling says May should stay due to Brexit

-I do think the left who are talking about Corbyn showing people rising up need to slightly calm down. He finished second on just above Gordon Brown level of seats, there is a hell of a lot of work to do by next election to win millions more over

-BBC profiles DUP and their ten MP's

-Thornberry says Labour has shown what they can do when united

-Dugdale says Scottish Labour is back

-The words coalition of chaos now being used a lot. Not by Tories this time

-A sense austerity will at least have to be adapted considerably or dropped

-Carywn Jones says May should go

-Plaid got their youngest ever Mp Ben Lake (aged 24)

-Slightly disturbed at how the Police Federation and co have had a good election. We are doomed to repeat the same old mistakes and treat them as figures of substance when they have not earnt that right, not by a long shot

-DUP will not do talks on Sundays due to religious grounds

-Gavin Williamson sent to Belfast to try to get formal agreement

-No reshuffle today

=====

-Tom Tugendhat on DUP "I joined a party that introduced equal marriage, backs civil rights and defends freedom of faith. Those principles won't be compromised."

-Soubry wants Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy to be sacked but says Crosby isn't to blame

-Lord Mandelson says Corbyn's result is an earthquake and that he was wrong to criticize Corbyn

-McCluskey says Labour should prepare to form minority government when DUP=Tory alliance falls

-Nice touch Douglas Ross thanking Angus Robertson for his service

-Mansfield announced wrong winning candidate

-Former leader of Plaid in the commons, Elfyn Llwyd says Plaid's targets were dull and it's targetting was all wrong

-Monmouth election officials getting flak after screwing up 106 year old Win Hawkins and stopping her from voting despite having visited her to ensure everything was in line beforehand. Said officials have said they will ensure she is eligible to vote next time

-Barwell says May was right to call election but they need to look at how Labour did so well, Blackwood says they need to tackle intergenerational unfairness and now youths are voting with both former ministers defending May

-Chris Leslie says Corbyn ran a solid campaign but they did lose and they need to look at what they need to do to actually win, May was very beatable

-Conservative Home calling for return of Morgan, Gove and Grieve with a promotion for Raab. 65% of it's members are calling for May to go

-Housing groups sad to see Barwell go and not happy that this will be their 15th housing minister in 20 years

-Katie Perrior, a former Downing Street director of communications, really lays into May's chiefs of staff, saying they bullied cabinet ministers including sweary texts (this is an allegation MP's have apparently been making as well), made atmosphere toxic, May a good person who needs a wider circle of advisers

-Owen Paterson muses that abortion time limits could be for debate with DUP but says gay rights are a devolved issue so can't see DUP pushing on that

-Lord Hague says serious lessons must be learnt including need for hope and vision but not time for leadership contest

-Ed Vaizey says Tories using What'sApp to discuss May future

-Neil Carmichael shares Davidson's concerns about DUP

-George Freeman says May's team failed to realize tiredness of austerity

-Ousted Stewart Jackson says manifesto lacked passion and vision

-Credit to Matthew Goodwin for eating his own words as promised if Corbyn got more then 40%

=====

-D'Arcy warns would could be facing another Callaghan government of the late 70's which Gavin Williamson having to repeat the brilliance of Walter Harrison

-Professor Curtice on six lessons

-BBC on European press reaction

-Brian Taylor on a remarkable night

-Katya Adler on what this means for Brexit

-Kamal Ahmed on end of austerity

-BBC election maps

-Vanessa Barford 20 things one might have missed

-Nick Bryant on are we seeing end of anglo-America world order

-Chris Cook on Tories misread battleground as did Labour

-John Harris excited by the election

-Freedland on Corbyn has written the rules

-Ian Birrell says Crosby's time is at an end, his tactics out of date

-Cecile Wright on Labour and Momentum's campaigning infrastructure

-Brendan O'Neill says two party politics is dead and sees a Remain conspiracy forming behind Corbyn (ignore the latter part)
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Jun 11, 2017 5:17 pm

Reshuffle: Damian Green become First Secretary of State and is moved from DWP to Cabinet Office. First bit makes sense, a close rally to May who can help shore up support, a good media performer, respected and perhaps aids him in a future leadership bid. The latter? Not so much. Moves from big budget high profile role to behind the scenes, out of sight role, a thoughtful leading modernizer so should fit in. David Gauke promoted from Treasury to DWP, a Remainer who has been a safe pair of hands at Treasury. Liz Truss demoted from Justice to Hammond's number 2 in Treasury but remains in cabinet, has had a rough time at Justice as she pulled back in Gove's reforms without replacing them and alienated legal world by her reaction to savaging of judges by press, has tended to be a reformist figure in parliament and is a trained economist, David Lidington latest non-lawyer to get Justice but did his PHD on “the enforcement of the penal statutes at the court of the Exchequer c.1558-c.1576”, a competent and well liked figure but legal affairs is not been his area of expertise before. Loses his standing in for May at PMQ's. Recently ousted MP Gavin Barwell becomes chief of staff, experienced operator at Tory HQ and former whip. He and Green being passionate Remainers has led to some eyebrows being raised

Stays as they are: Greg Clark, Dr Fox, Greening (this won't help the grammar school clash), Javid, Patel, Cairns, Hunt (bit surprised at that one), Gavin Williamson, Grayling

Thoughts? May is weak, she can not remove a lot of figures it was well known she wanted to (Javid, Greening, Dr Fox, Hunt, Grayling, Hammond) though Boris was always going to be tricky to move. She has to keep the Brexit side up so is tweaking around the edges, filing in a role that was missing and demoting only Truss who lacks a strong base. However where she has shown power is Raab was expected for Justice but she hasn't gone for him, all her promotions are going for the proud Remainers and moderate wing of the party.

======

-Tories on May: Boris denies leadership speculation as tripe, his amazingly loyal what-ap conversations have been leaked to press. Sir Fallon says he expects more collective decision making in cabinet and work more with the party, says they are seeking a confidence and supply deal with DUP, Bradley says elections are a gamble, May will be more inclusive in policy making, refuses to say if May will fight next election.

Osborne says dead woman walking, thinks alliance will be unstable, Nicky Morgan says May should stay but most compromise and has spoken of May being unable to lead next election. Graham Brady of the 1922 committee wants May to continue in post but be more inclusive in way she governs, should look at way Corbyn expresses himself to hide his extreme views, Soubry says May should stay for now but will go in due course, she should try to form consensus, no deal on Brexit went down badly, May should listen more to Hammond. Raab rails against journalist Osborne as "disloyal, unprofessional and pretty self-indulgent", says May is safe

-DUP says talks have been positive while Downing Street forced to change their line on DUP deal as not done with no explanation as to why they said there was one agreed then said there isn't one, not helping May this mess up

-Sinn Fein says DUP have betrayed the people and deal will end in tears

-Labour calls for May to go: Nia Griffiths urges May to go and allow Labour to form government, Thornberry accuses May of squatting, Cooper sees May's position as untenable, says MP's have accepted Corbyn's plans but Corbyn must accept party line on Trident

-Plymouth fails to count 6,100 votes from Efford and Lipson ward, wouldn't have changed winner but would have changed size of majority. MP Luke Pollard furious and Electoral Commission investigating

-McDonnell on the election

-Amazing how many of the press always knew Corbyn could do well in elections...

-Soft Brexiteers really making a push using the election result

-Nick Timothy on his resignation

-Labour to try to amend Queen's speech on nature of Brexit, their reshuffle postponed

-Corbyn suspects Great Repeal Bill is dead, doubts Sinn Feinn will take their seats given their history, thinks election this year is quite possible, will reach out to his Labour critics

-McDonnell rules out staying in single market

-SNP says full details of any DUP-Tory agreement should be published

-Charlie Flanagan, the Irish foreign minister, says there is a concern about DUP-Tory alliance undermining peace process but it doesn't have to do so but outgoing leader Edna Kenny says he has warned May of his concern about this

-SNP's Brexit spokesperson Mike Russell hints independence referendum may be dropped

-Trump cancels state visit because we don't want him. May may wish she had cancelled it when asked by others, this is a further blow as Trump abandons her

-May to face 1922 committee on Monday afternoon (Brady had demanded by Tuesday)

====

-Lord Heseltine thinks EU will offer us immigration deal which could allow us to stay (doubt it), May will not be leader by next election

-Lord Prescott doesn't think May will last five months

-Len "200 seats" McCluskey blames media and MP's for PM in waiting Corbyn not winning

-Shaun Woodward, the former Labour Northern Ireland secretary, says DUP deal is morally reprehensible due to damage it does to peace progress

-Tugendhant tweets "3 qs on DUP deal. What effect on: 1 - NI peace/UK Gov neutrality? 2 - equal rights? 3 - getting Brexit deal/Irish Gov reaction/open border?"

====

-Mark Lobel profiles Hill and Timothy, how much they are to blame for the election and what their going means for May

-Joey Jones says open season on Hill and Timothy has left things unbalanced

-Tony Parsons says Corbyn gives millions hopes but Brexiteers will worry and that Sun will maintain their stance on Corbyn as unpatriotic
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:40 am

Gove back in cabinet. An obvious maneuver for May - she needs allies, fast, and Gove is a big hitter who has everything to lose if BoJo ousts May. In the short term he should be a reliable ally, long term I wouldn't be surprised of he jumps ship if he think he could repair his relationship with Johnson or another candidate.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:44 pm

Reshuffle:Andrea Leadsom moved to Leader of the House, more public role but loses control of department so could be seen as a demotion, however it is going to be key in trying to get things through the Commons so a key role. Gove replaces her in environment which out goes a Brexiteer for a more leading Brexiteer for handling replacement of various EU policies like Common Agricultural Policy though he will love to replace Common Fishery Policy given his family history. Puts a far better mind on the issue, puts someone who is a great reformer (and a absolute craven backbencher) in an area facing major challenges. I don't recall Gove having an interest in environment but has caused alarm as he tried to drop climate change from curriculum and tends to vote against green measures (so DUP will love him). Bit embarrassing for May though given May is known to hate Gove but Sun Fin has a point he may be another counter-weight against Boris "look at how super loyal I'm being" Johnson like Green has been. Brandon Lewis remains junior Home Office minister but now attends cabinet

Stays: Brokenshire (mainland UK really wants N.Ireland to plunge into civil war pointer 500,000,000), Bradley, Jeremy Wright, Baroness Evans, David Mundell, Patrick McLoughlin (not all Tories happy, they blame his handling of election)

====

-President Macron to have dinner with May

-Rudd and Dr Fox back May, Boris says Tory messages got lost or misunderstood during campaign but people need to get a grip and rally around May, even writes about it, 1922 head Graham Brady says no urge to bring May down and if she governs well then she could stay on but they are massively disappointed, warns Ireland needs to be handled with sensitivity

-David Davis says election was nightmare but backs May whose running of country (gives a lot of praise on that score) will shore up support and won't stand for leadership given his past record, says Labour's Brexit is similar to theirs and UK will leave single market, admits he pushed for election but so did rest of cabinet, some parts of manifesto will be dropped, warns Brexit talks may not start when scheduled due to Queen's Speech (I think people would understand if he skipped it as long as Labour keep the partnering system) but he is more open to EU timetable of sorting out bills first

-Number 10 denies Trump has cancelled state visit

-Mike Russell says May must restart with Brexit policy and she should go

-Andrew Davies says Welsh Tories need clear leadership rather him in Assembly, Cains on MP's (there was a feeling it hampered Welsh Tory efforts but I doubt UK Tories want Davies to have power)

-Well done Gethins for joking "we need more panda's" when asked about the old Scottish Tory joke

-Queen's Speech being delayed it seems, partly to cement agreement, partly because the way it is written days takes a week for ink to dry. It is already messing with the monarch's plans.. Sturgeon suggests delay raises questions about what if means for government being able to function, it does but I also question if something that needs a week for ink to dry is really needed. Labour says it shows government in chaos

-Caroline Lucas condemns Gove's appointment

-Watson asking May if she talked to Murdoch about giving Gove a job (I suspect Tory MP's were more in her mind)

-Sterling dips to seven month low as credit agencies warn UK is not looking a good prospect while hopes of soft Brexit takes edge off the tip

-Sir Stramer says we should try to see if EU will accept end of free movement and single market access (that would surely just annoy the EU)

-Number 10 says immigration target will stay, Gove's experience was behind his recall

-Gerry Adams says he will oppose the DUP-Tory alliance and fears Brokenshire is not neutral so wants independent chair

-Since Brexit EU nurses applications to work here have fallen 96%

-1922 committee did give May the traditional banging of desks, cheers when Barwell got appointed, May says she messed up will get them out of the mess and "I've served the party since I was 12. I will serve you for as long as you want me", DUP won't affect gay rights. Her contrition without going overboard seems to have gone down really really really well and went out to sustained cheering

-SNP to choose Westminster leader Wednesday evening

=====

-Former N.Ireland Secretary Lord Murphy worried about peace process from DUP-Tory agreement

-Stephen Kinnock indicates he would serve and Labour needs to have a front bench from all wings of the party to broaden it's appeal

-Wayne David says we saw a very different Corbyn and one that has gained MP's respect

-Lord Howard backs May, says Labour Brexit is close to Tories

-Lord Falconer says he misjudged Corbyn and says people have shown they want an end to austerity and there is a wide debate to have about funding that

-John Mann on steps both sides of Labour must now take

-Lord Wood on why he objects to May making deal with Irish party

-Prominent N.Ireland gay rights activist+ulster unionist councillor Jeffrey Dudgeon says DUP attitudes on gay rights seem to be shifting and he is alright with Tory deal

-Former taoiseach John Bruton says alliane will make direct rule very difficult but might help get Sinn Feinn to agree powersharing in Stormont to prevent it, thinks DUP will seek access to customs union

-SDLP urges N.Ireland parties to stop mucking around and come to a powersharing deal

-David Coburn running for UKIP leadership in a spirit of love "I am announcing my candidacy for UKIP Leader this time to stop Entryists Diletantes and Single issue loonies i have had enough"

-George Freeman wants hard Brexit dropped and May to return to her earlier speeches about inequality

=====

-Iain Watson on attitudes going into 1922 committee

-Mark Devenport on what DUP may seek from talks

-Jackie Ashley on next steps Labour need to take

-d'Ancona says May is toxifying Tories and needs to resign, Rudd is the future

-Goodman calls for May to go

-Faisal Islam calls for Labour and Tories to work together on Brexit

-Peter Oborne urges people to calm down, defends May

-Kevin Maguire urges May to go

--Henry Hill on Ruth Davidson's strategy
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:38 pm

Dong Zhou wrote: I don't recall Gove having an interest in environment but has caused alarm as he tried to drop climate change from curriculum and tends to vote against green measures (so DUP will love him).


I've seen a few comments along this line but as far as I can see they are unfair. I read DUP's manifesto and there was nothing in there about not believing in climate change. My understanding is that they may have members of the party that deny it but it's not party policy. Which is no different to Gove not believing in it and I'm sure there are Labour MP's who are skeptics too.


Dong Zhou wrote:-Gerry Adams says he will oppose the DUP-Tory alliance and fears Brokenshire is not neutral so wants independent chair.


I do think he makes a good point. I think May should ask Farron to appoint a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to ensure neutrality. I rather doubt the DUP would be willing to accept someone appointed by Corbyn which is why I'm suggesting a Lib Dem candidate.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:19 am

Sun Fin wrote:
I've seen a few comments along this line but as far as I can see they are unfair. I read DUP's manifesto and there was nothing in there about not believing in climate change. My understanding is that they may have members of the party that deny it but it's not party policy. Which is no different to Gove not believing in it and I'm sure there are Labour MP's who are skeptics too.


As I understand it, they ignored the issue (though given their issue with biofuels funding, that could be why) in their manifesto and attitudes could be changing there and I think Foster shouldn't be blamed for a predecessor appointing a climate change denier as energy minister. However DUP MP's are seen as being, at very least, led by climate change deniers

I do think he makes a good point. I think May should ask Farron to appoint a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to ensure neutrality. I rather doubt the DUP would be willing to accept someone appointed by Corbyn which is why I'm suggesting a Lib Dem candidate.
[/quote]

I would ask N.Ireland parties if they can agree on a chair, if not then seeking UK cross party support on a chair with Tories, SNP, Labour and Lib Dems discussing it
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