UK Politics

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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:11 pm

Sun Fin wrote:Do you not think there is a difference between someone currently taking drugs and someone who did 20 years ago? If Gove was caught taking them now then I think he should be arrested but I don’t think drug takers should be when it’s a historic crime.

That said, I would prefer our system was one of compulsory rehab rather than prison time for those taking drugs.


They got away with it then due to class and skin colour, while they advocate anti-drugs policies that punish poorer drug users. Do I think they should be arrested? No but I'm just unhappy at the hypocrisy and that the system is so titled that they get away with it and don't do anything to help those that didn't get that same luxury.

I think drugs are a bad idea but I would legalize it and, after the initial rush, go for public health camapign to try to drive down the numbers over long term and as I think it will be less damaging if under legal supply without the thrill of naughtiness.

Tory contest, Welsh Brexit party already complaining of bias
-Gove writing anti-drugs articles and demanding tighter laws during a time he was taking drugs is being damaging for Gove though with so many others of the leadership campaigners (Raab, Leadsom and Hancock admitted it yesterday) having taken drugs, they themselves will keep quiet.

-Papers on Gove "the hypocrite" and Brexit

-Gove would scrap HS2 and replace VAT with a simpler system, Boris calls himself a One Nation Tory ""I truly believe only I can steer the country between the Scylla and Charybdis of Corbyn and Farage and on to calmer water,"" says divorce bill would be "retained" until UK got better deal and would scrap backstop, Ruth Davidson backs Javid which will be a boost given Davidson's control of Scottish Tory MP's. Javid (sun) on education, Steve Baker, high priest of the ERG, backs Boris as do cabinet ministers Grayling, Cairns and Brokenshire while Gove gets Bradley and Hinds

-Corbyn says children talents squandered by underfunded education system and unequal society, promises social justice commission

-Business Committee looking into steel industry and collapse of British Steel, Greg Clark orders his own investigation

-Welsh Brexit party leader Mark Reckless accuses Presiding Officer Elin Jones of bias (despite her allowing them to form over protests from other parties) which has gone down really badly in Welsh Assembly.

====

-Adam Kirby single issue politics isn't winning

-Rawnsley four party growth in first past the post system may cause problems

-Stephen Bush drug policy
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:00 pm

Partly class and colour, but also partly they were doing it casually, not addicted and they weren't doing it on the streets?

I'm not trying to condone their use, and I completely get the hypocrisy angle when it comes to Gove's article at the time, but I don't think it is hypocritical to do something and then realise it's bad 20 years later.

I don't agree with legalising drugs but that's a conversation for another time.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:37 am

and nobody jailed were doing it casually and meaning to do it in their own homes or at a party? I wish that was true. If your a rich white kid, it is part of a growing up ritual, if your not then that is jail time for you with all the future messed up that entails.

and what efforts have any of the drug takers taken to protect those who are making the same casual mistakes they are but without the protection of privilege? I have no issue with accepting it was wrong, we all make bad bad mistakes when young that we regret. I don't like it when they end up in a position to help and do nothing though.

This seems a good topic for drugs and legalization if your interested

Once leadership candidates confirmed, will do short profiles of the candidates and their chances for those outside UK.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:43 pm

Tory leadership 10 profiles
Intro: Tory candidates, will be rounds to whittle it down to final two selected by MP’s (so whoever wins has shown they have MP backing to prevent a Corbyn like clash) who then go to small Tory membership that tend to be to hard right and very pro Brexit (even without accusations of UKIP/Brexit entryism). Though some talk of “final two come to some agreement” which would be controversial. Some will be running with less chance of winning and more pushing an agenda and their profile in hope of future jobs. Traditionally those that wield the knife (Leadsom as close to that as we have) to end the past leader and those that are clear favourite (Boris) never win and had a few underdog winners in recent past.

Will be their Brexit and general policy stance, a mini profile, strengths, weaknesses both as a potential PM and for running for Tory leadership, chances.

======================

Michael Gove

Stance: Life long Brexiteer, blaming EU fisheries policy for destruction of father’s fishery business, but his loyalty to the Cameron set meant some doubts he would join the referendum coup. He was seen as a major coup, gave not only an extremely able performer but intellectual ballast and a liberal figure. Not been forgiven by Brexiteers for turning on Boris when leadership seemed Boris (Gove was alarmed by ramshackle and lazy campaign, doubting Boris suitably for highest office) and allowing May to win. Loyally served May and defended the deal to the end which... will also not be forgiven.

A neo-Con in foreign affairs (though he argues he has become more moderate on that), a Cameron ie social liberal, metropolitan, small state figure, very much sees Green issues as a battleground for the Tories to take.

Profile: Adopted in Aberdeen to a fishery family, won scholarship and would go to Oxford and become President of Student Union. Rose through the ranks at the Times (Tory and business establishment paper) and became friend of Murdoch’s, a very skilled writer. Became a (outter) member of Cameron’s inner circle the Notting Hill set. Became Education Secretary and began radical reforms to take on the “education blob” he felt were holding back children’s education which led to war with teaching unions who claimed he insulted teachers and disliked his reforms (no teaching union resigned when data showed Gove’s “insulting” warnings, which they had denied, about low standards was alarmingly true).

Moved to chief whip before election to get him out of public eye then went to Justice where he won popularity by ditching everything his inept predecessor Chris Grayling had done. Sacked by May over the disloyalty to Boris but as things went wrong for her, given Environment which is a key Brexit area. Was met with scepticism by Green and Farming groups but became May’s star minister as he drove through reforms

Pro: The star minister in Westminster, he can command the Commons (was some wondering if Gove had been selling the deal rather then May, if it might have got through), I have seen him one week having everyone in stitches then next pounding on Labour with, always always polite, fury. Extremely articulate, intelligent, very able performer with an ability to sell a message and seem human. Got a good backstory, has vision and drive, able to get things done (even those who oppose everything he stands for acknowledge he has driven reforms in all departments), showed signs of learning as he has been less aggressive in Justice and Environment then he was at Education.

Setting himself as the pragmatic Brexiteer has gone down well with MP’s, Brexiteer’s who don’t trust Boris and fear the more right wing ones, the Remainers who accept Brexit must happen and want a sensible hand.

Cons: Activists may be furious if he is the “Brexit candidate” at final leadership stage (Farage would love it) and see it as an establishment stitch up and will go for Boris or a pure Brexiteer if Brexiteer vs Brexiteer. I wonder slightly if there is always just a little on the outside feeling internally with him (like Cameron set, an outside insider), concerns at his aggressive views on foreign policy linger, backstory won’t stop him being seen as metropolitan elite. Teaching unions and teachers will be on war path if he is leader which will be a problem electorally (ditto Hunt and doctors). His dismissal of experts during referendum could become an issue though he has worked to win them over since, that will rankle and makes an easy charge for Labour. Right now, the drugs 20 years ago story is really hitting him hard.

Chances: Good among MP’s, will be a tight battle with strongly placed rivals but poor among activists though they admit he is competent. If he is the Brexit candidate then might be anger that Farage can exploit of the Tory elite trying to sabotage Brexit, if a Brexit vs Brexit contest then he will have to perform strongly to overcome past sins. He needs to get out of this drug story spiral

=================

Matt Hancock

Stance: Remainer, an Osborne loyalist ie social liberal, pro-austerity and for himself pro-tech. Pushed for TV debates for this so other leaders may not be pleased...

Profile: Another from Oxford university, served in Bank of England and became adviser to George Osborne. A hard working MP who worked on Public Accounts Committee then was used as Osborne’s eyes and ears in Lb Dem business department then in energy (sometimes holding posts in two departments), became digital minister under May. Dogged by “scandals” about business by newspaper the guardian that turned out to be false which may have held back his advancement.
Became Culture Secretary under May where he made a big push on broadband and concerned about social media, though uses it himself, for six months then replaced Hunt at Health where he is trying to move them off faxes.

Pro’s: Another safe pair of hands and competent performer, embraces tech in a way MP’s are usually slow to though that can lead to errors, building some support among the young via use of social media. Going for young vigour (only 40) and fresh ideas angle.

Con’s: Lacks front bench experience, not really cut through yet but debates will be chance to change that. Remain and being Osborne’s close ally in past will not do well with the membership

Chances: I suspect he won’t get into final two (though far from no hoper and launched interestingly) but he may advance himself for a future bid and ensure cabinet post (or keeping his current one) if he does well at hustings, setting out his idea’s.

===============

Mark Harper

Stance: Remainer who is annoyed at people who sat with May then refuse to take responsibility, would extend talks, pro interventions abroad

Profile: Went to Oxford and became an accountant, as MP was various committees then shadow disability minister. When Cameron became PM, went to cabinet office under Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg then promoted to immigration, his Go Home vans were a PR disaster and resigned when cleaner’s immigration status was questioned (his going immediately ensured little fall-out). Returned as disability minister then became chief whip under Cameron and was axed when May took over though never caused trouble.

Pro’s: A safe pair of hands, a good media and Commons performer, handed his junior and whip posts well and former chief whip tends to have some pull (though been a long time). Seen as an honourable man

Cons: In a crowded field, he doesn’t stand out and has lacked any cut through with media. Been too long out of public eye, people don’t really know his stances as always followed the ministerial line, too Remain for members.

Chances: At best will get his name back in public eye which may be the point.

======

Jeremy Hunt

Stance: Was a Remainer who is now desperately trying to show he is a Brexiteer, leading to some cringe-worthy “down with kids” only with Brexiteers moments. A Cameron technocrat ie to center/left of party, metropolitan remainer.

Profile: From well connected military family and went to Oxford, taught English in Japan ( speaks Japanese) and after failed business adventures, his educational publishing business took off. An early backer of Cameron, served in culture department during Olympics bu his closeness to Murdoch family led to problems including attempted takeover and phone tapping scandal though he was later cleared of any impropriety or bias.

Moved to the toxic issue of Health (best Tories can get is not it being a toxic issue for them, Labour own this area) where Lansley reforms had caused trouble and lasted a record six years. Stood up to NHS leaders over “acceptable accidental deaths” and a hospital called Mid Staffs that had been cover up for mass killings, was regarded to have generally ran health as a safe and efficient pair of hands bar a stupid fight with medical unions over junior doctor pay.

Replaced Boris as Foreign Minister, been a few gaffes like the highly offensive (for eastern Europe) comparison of EU behaviour to the Soviet Union. Or getting the nationality of his Chinese wife wrong. Hasn’t got anyone arrested.

Pro’s: One of the few experienced ministers to run, his safe pair of hands and not being keen on no deal is building him support among MP’s. Would represent sending a centrist moderate to the members, a safe communicator and administrator who does reform by stealth, going for “I have done deals with business and can lead talks”, has shown ability to win cabinet battles against May. Speaking another language is an embarrassing rarity here.

Con: His last name is easily turned into swear word. Cameron and co actually won elections but were never popular among members and is feeling time is gone for his wing, the metropolitan elite is a dangerous tag, his voting Remain will see him destroyed by members. When trying too hard to win over the base, leads to embarrassing errors and leading to some suspicions he could waver towards harder Brexit, his fight with doctors over junior pay was ill-advised (some suspicion he was trying to repeat Gove vs education establishment) and might be an electoral problem with image as it was what people associate with him. Speaks another language which is not going to help his image in some circles.

Chances: A fair chance of making final two as the stop Boris figure if MP’s trust him not to waver. Members might simply not listen as a Remainer and needs to show he is more then the safe, uninspired choice by bringing through idea’s and a sense of vision.

========

Sajid Javid

Stances: Quietly Remain but strong suspicion he was a Brexiteer who was being loyal to Osborne. A Thatcherite, neo-Con and fan of Ann Rand, hard on law and order+immigration, fought anti-Semitism and socially liberal.

Profile: Son of an immigrant bus driver where his teachers seem to have tried to hold him back, became an investment banker here and in US for likes of Deutsch Bank before taking massive paycut to be MP. Caught the eye quickly, worked on Works and Pensions Select Committee, became ally to Osborne at first business department then his eyes and ears as PPS, rose through Treasury. Made Culture Secretary and first of 2010 intake to reach cabinet and first British Pakistani MP to do so, spoke up for press freedoms then went to Business then Local Government were his housing reforms were blocked by Hammond. Windrush scandal saw him promoted to Home Office where he has been rolling back May’s more liberal reforms

Pro: Has a great story (son of migrant, victim of racism as child and now, breaking barriers), clever, regarded as competent. Having a BME Muslim leader would be a huge boost to party’s image, also awkward for Labour (their lack of female leaders is becoming an issue, being beaten on non-white leaders as well would be an embarrassment). Backing of Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson is a huge boost to his credibility and probably his numbers

Con: A robotic performer, it isn’t as bad as it was but still he can’t spin his narrative well and makes May look smooth flowing in an interview, that his father would be banned from coming to UK under current rules is awkward. Has not made a great stamp on departments though has been quick to show he is not May at Home Office, don’t think he has fulfilled his talent. Sadly racists would oppose and “of course I thoroughly support a BME Muslim candidate to lead but it is others who won’t accept it so now is not the time”. His eagerness to prove toughness leads to gaffes and possibly illegally stripping a UK national of said nationality, I wonder if investment banker will be seen by public rather then his actual background.

Chances: Lurking below the front-runners, should do fairly well but I wonder if his Thatcherite stances will put off the left and the right might not feel he is fully Brexity. Would far from rule him out, particularly if he finds his delivery.

==========

Boris Johnson

Stance: Was seen as a Remainer going into the referendum but had history of attacking EU (like Cameron) though unlike most, as Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent was notorious for fake stories about EU. Wrote two articles for Telegraph, Remain and Brexit before making choice which side to choose, chose Brexit. Was a huge huge boost for them as the only figure who could rival Cameron and hugely popular, he was their big spokesperson and front-man but looked devastated when they won. Has always been a suspicion he ran thinking he would do well, narrowly lose to Remain and then take over from Cameron with activists seeing him as valiant hero. Ran for leadership but imploded, resigned as Foreign Secretary over May’s Chequers plan (only after Brexit secterary David Davis did first), voted against May’s deal till third time. Argues a bit more gumption and boldness will see EU fold on issues.

A social and Tory liberal who would normally appeal to the left on things like green issues, LGBT rights and so on, but has tended to play to the gallery on things like immigration, Brexit and elsewhere leading to suspicions about what exactly he would do as leader. I have principles and if you don’t like them, I have some more is used about him.

Bio: From rich and established family (father Stanley was MEP and Green issue activist, sister Rachael is journalist), has US lineage, went to Eton (the elite school for very rich) and was Oxford Union president. Journalist for centre-right publications like of Times (sacked for false quote), Telegraph (noted for fake news as Brussels correspondent), libertarian right Spectator but few would deny he was an entertaining and brilliant writer, shone as guest star on topical news comedy show Have I Got News for You.

Struggled to stand out as MP and remained as columnist for most of his time, given junior shadow minister posts but forced to apologize to Liverpool for publishing a deeply insulting article then sacked for lying about affair. Shocked by Cameron winning leadership, he agreed to become their candidate for Mayor of London which is a Labour stronghold, proved an effective election campaigner and won two terms before retiring. Seen there as ok Mayor with talent and skilled at tapping into public mood but prone to vanity projects and lacking great reforms. Acted for Tory dissidents as King Across the Water against Cameron, his conference speeches were packed for their humour and charisma, the ability to lift everyone up (bar Cameron).

Returned to Westminster in 2015 with EU referendum planned, ran for leadership when Cameron stood down and was expected to win but his chief of staff Gove split over concerns at Boris laziness and the infighting dragged them both down. May gave him Foreign Office, his loose language and failure to read his briefs led to trouble and then he contradicted the legal defence of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Iran used Boris loose words to further jail her. Didn’t resign and May was too weak to oust him, resigned over Chequers (second to do so), didn’t so much join the ERG but was associated with them.

Pros: Few will doubt that Boris is a star, a man of great gifts. An entertaining writer, a great orator that charms and lifts up the spirits, a quick thinker and considerable intelligence, a wit, his conference speeches were a riot of fun. Immensely charismatic and able to skillfully ride out moments that might destroy others. He reached areas other Tories could not, like London, and is a skilled election campaigner. An eye for talent who tends to select his campaign chiefs well (current one is former chief whip Gavin Williamson, a formidable operator), the question has always been why he hasn’t he managed more with his talents.

Appeals to MP’s as the man who can out charisma and populist Farage, who has that Brexit credibility while he was also, at least once, the man who could reach out to the left of the country, who could win in London. Everybody (outside Westminster, Liverpool and foreign parts) loved Boris once and that may make even the Scottish Tories, who hate him, fall into line.

Cons: The reasons he hasn’t managed more is, well himself. Lazy, indisciplined, relying too much on his wits and charisma to get away with stuff, infamously late with his articles and not reading his brief. He struggles in the Common as an orator and entitlement, tendency for racism (sorry “colourful language” or “humour”), the feeling he will say anything to win votes and a record for outright fibbs means it is not popular MP’s with “Stop Boris” plans well known.

Brexit is an issue as he went from most trusted and most popular politician in the country to one of the most divisive with the infamous “£350 million for NHS” a potential haunting. Will those Boris once could reach turn against him because of his role in Brexit? While all Brexiteer leaders will be defined by how Brexit unfolds, this will be doubly so for Boris as he was the headliner for them. There is also the challenge of being the good joker may not be the one people see as serious PM though polling suggests he can handle that.

Colourful private life might become an issue, accused of helping in plot to beat up journalist back in 90’s, constantly rebuked by watchdogs for his poor handling of donations and expenses (not in terms of corruption but carelessness and laziness). Offended many foreign governments and several diplomats are known to see him as a joke, didn’t impress as Mayor of London with a tendency for big vanity projects and little else, a disaster as Foreign Secretary. Hated by business as he insulted them over Brexit and as the party of business, that could become an issue.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. She is still in jail and that act probably makes him the worst Foreign Secretary in our history (nobody has yet found a more suited candidate so this may be as close to a factual “worst/best” one can ever make). Corbyn’s views and past allies may or may not make him a risk to national security but that is up for debate, he has never got a British citizen jailed by a hostile regime due to incompetence.

Chances: The strong favourite, if he gets to final two he will likely win and at moment the “winner”/”Stop Raab” angle is trumping the “dear gods, Boris as leader” but a fair chunk of MP’s will fiercely battle to oppose him and the favourite never ever wins these, has already infuriated the Scottish Tories. Entirely possibly he will implode again and is being kept out of public eye right now

=======

Andrea Leadsom

Stances: A Remainer in 2013 but had become a passionate Brexiteer during years since, was part of Vote Leave’s TV debate team and acted Carney’s warnings. Has been a vocal voice against May’s swing to softer Brexit and leader of the cabinet Brexiteers “pizza club”, tends to the conservative Christian right right on social (abstained on gay marriage), climate and economic issues.

Bio: Worked in finance including for Barclays and Tory councillor before becoming MP. On Treasury Select Committee and became a leading backbench Brexiteer. Ministerial rank delayed as she slammed Osborne at one point over his blaming shadow chancellor for something he didn’t do. Served in Treasury and then Energy (despite having to ask herself is climate change real though says it is) department as junior minister under Cameron. Acted against micro-beads but opposed wind-farms.

Ran for leader when May went and became the Brexit candidate vs May as others imploded but members never got to vote as she claimed she would be better PM as a mother (May is medically unable to have children). It was a huge scandal made worse by her team’s attempts to blame paper until paper released the transcript, there was questions about exaggerating her role at places like Barclays, finances (more lack of transparency then scandal) and she dropped out.

Briefly May’s Defra (environment, energy and rural matters) Secretary but moved to Leader of the House (runs government business and tries to get things through Commons). Became a heated opponent of Speaker Bercow over accusations he insulted her, respected across House for work on harassment. Resigned when May said she would allow a second referendum vote.

Pros: Does have respect in Commons, has become a more reliable media presence having learnt lessons from last one, her resignation has helped soothe out the “stayed in cabinet”. Is improving in Commons as well, experience is helping her.

Cons: She and her supporters have a tendency to lash out when criticized by media, needs to show she won’t make the same mistakes, passion for Brexit has sometimes led to odd claims. One also has to wonder if her branch of Tory is popular with members but would repeat the old mistake of out of touch with a more socially liberal public. Not a great Commons performer though has got better over time.

Chances: The error from last time probably too fresh in mind, is likely to be squeezed out by bigger Brexiteer names on the right while won’t win support from left of party.

====

Esther McVey

Stance: Ardent Brexiteer who resigned over May’s draft deal, pitching herself as blue collar working class conservative. Blue collar figures are low tax, education reform, protect fuel and working costs, hard on law, big on social mobility, learns towards IDS/Thatcherite wing of things.

Profile: Working class Liverpool (Labour stronghold) born, had to be put in children’s home for two years, her family worked in construction, she graduated in law and she became a TV presenter and businesswoman. Held a minority seat and rose quickly as a competent combative junior minister at Works and Pensions, lost her seat in 2015 but took the retiring chancellor George Osborne’s safe seat to get back in. Became deputy whip under May then became head of Work and Pensions but resigned over draft deal.

Pro’s: A good communicator with a sense of humour, doesn’t lack fight, her working class background makes a good story, could be the symbol of social mobility. Causes Labor problems because the shadow chancellor John McDonnell, as a backbencher, either called for her to be lynched (with rude words) or was quoting someone which undermines “kinder gentler politics” from a party that has yet to elect a female leader. He also called her a stain on humanity during a Commons debate.

Con: Goes for the fight when sometimes a gentler touch is needed, though a good pair of hands at junior level she made some detail errors in brief role at right bench and may need more experience, her support of IDS when other Tories felt his universal credit reforms were botched won’t win her fans. Proroguing parliament threat won’t go down well

Chances: Losing to Raab on the ardent Brexiteers and her blue collar group is small, she lacks the sense of big name but a good campaign may advance her chances of appointment and better place her for future.

============

Dominic Raab

Stance: Long time Brexiteer, stepped in to replace Davis after Chequers but resigned over draft deal, backed May’s deal in third vote, claims he was the guy that terrified the EU. Seems to have the backing of the ERG hardcore, very free market, pro civil liberties, anti-regulation and not a fan of the term feminist sort of figure.

Bio: Son of Jewish immigrant fleeing the Nazi’s, went to Oxford to read law and worked in corporate law and in the Hague for Foreign Office, worked as chief of staff to shadow cabinet members. While he made a strong impression from backbenchers as a speaker and a writer, his views were in conflict to the Cameron ministry so never got off the backbenches. Replaced Davis as Brexit Secretary under May and infamously admitted he hadn’t understood the full extend we rely on the ports of Dover and Calais before resigning over draft deal.

Pro’s: Capable media performer, a highly intelligent figure who shouldn’t lack for ideas, he is acting for members and MP’s as the pure Brexiteer who isn’t a recent convert, who resigned against May’s deal. He also represents the right of the party and can be relied on for that, inspired some MP’s even before he was a viable candidate in a way only Rudd did.

Cons: Has long had enemies based on being too radical/right-wing and will be attempts to block him by MP’s. I would suspect his views are repeating the mistake of Tories pre Cameron where views are close to activists rather then the public. Threats to prorogue parliament have gone down badly among MP’s, very limited front bench experience.

Chances: Has a sizeable following but it may be near peak, some bigger name Brexiteers will squeeze him out, purity will rally a fair share of MP’s to him but also put off a far larger number as will his prorogue parliament.

==========

Rory Stewart

Stances: Remainer who backs May’s deal as best choice ahead and citizen assemblies, a liberal left of party pro Green and pro international development figure.

Profile: Son of a diplomat, went to Oxford and a member of Labour when young, went to Foreign Office and awarded OBE were his work as a governor in Iraq and then Kabul before lecturing at Harvard and being a writer. As an MP is credited with being a hard worker at local level, served on Foreign Affairs Select Committee then became youngest Chair of a Select Committee ever as he led Defence. Took strong line on Ukraine and veteran rights then became junior minister at environment then got joint posts at Dfid and Foreign office. As prisons minister, promised to resign if he didn’t improve safety in six months but that was never tested as became Secretary of State for Dfid (international development).

Pros: Articulate, thoughtful, comes across well, intelligent, regarded as a highly competent junior minister (too new to tell at higher level), respected across Commons as an honourable figure. Speaks several languages and has an interesting back story, so much so there were rumours at one time it would became a film. Has run an interesting social media campaign touring places though quite how effective that actually is for the MP part of election is questionable.

Cons: Fears he comes across as posh and of the elite, speaks several languages. I’m not sure the party is ready for another modernizer as they did that with Cameron (and begrudgingly), his telling truth to party is not likely to go down well. His views conflict greatly with the membership and MP’s know that.

Chances: At best, if he gets on ballot it will allow a voice of the left of the party to set out idea’s and plans for future. No chance with activists and I doubt MP’s will go for someone they know will be hated


Tory leadership race gets going and ugly, South Korea deal, Gove unable to shake off story and shrinking economy
-Leadsom says it was made clear during referendum campaign that Brexit could lead to job losses in the leaflet every household got (a leaflet which Leavers attacked for such claims as "Project Fear"), May's deal is dead

-Javid said he has never taken drugs and people need to realize the impact drugs brings on wider world+ would slow down debt reduction to pay for more education funding, next election be will be hard due to embarrassment on Brexit failures and with Tories too divided, delivering Brexit won't get electoral rewards as just doing their job and need to act on the deeper issues that were there before referendum

-Hunt wants abortion limit cut to 12 weeks but declares it wouldn't be government policy, failure to delivery Brexit will kill Tory party, history will be kinder to the dedicated May (other candidates like Raab and Hancock didn't have the generosity towards the PM), praises Thatcher who he says inspired him to start a business, attempt to no deal would be blocked by parliament and lead to early election where Tories would lose badly. Would draw up plan to end illiteracy with more funding, defence spending would be 0.7% of GDP, five point plan for young people (mental health in every school and social media crackdown, cut in tuition fees interest rate, new homes, pollution free cities within a decade, help for enterprisers), way PM's communicate with public has to change.

Gets backing of Rudd who says Boris lacks a plan and would lead to early election, Mordaunt also backs Hunt as she knows he can deliver, they need to reach out to those beyond Tory ranks and she trusts him on security.

-Boris to raise top rate of income tax threshold to 80k (currently 40k when it hits in) which Leadsom and Raab questions if parliament will past it and Labour calling a tax cut for the wealthy while othe candidates have been talking notable shots at him for this, been well noted Boris is being kept out of public eye. Now also clear that Boris team is rowing back, hinting Telegraph misunderstood the 80k figure with Scottish Tories absolutely furious given the implications for Scotland (higher taxes for Scotland with none of the extra money going to Scotland)

-Gove admits he was lucky to avoid jail, rich don't need tax cuts, reform planning rules to help housing, abolish business rates for smaller enterprises , cybercrime police force, May should have waited till there was a plan before triggering article 50, a made a bad "pull out" joke about Boris which has gone down badly with press.

-Raab would use £500 million aid money for international wildlife fund, Britain has been humiliated in talks by a loss of nerve and failure to unite but he had got the better of Barnier by being bluntly truthful, he is the Brexiteer you can rely on, any tax cuts would be aimed at lowest paid like raising national insurance threshold

-Hancock would have helped himself if he had ensured his big speech was in sufficient light for TV camera's. Country needs a fresh start, believes world is becoming a better place and everyone has something of value and government's job is to help them utilize their gift, proroguing parliament would be dishonouring those who gave their lives for it, will move quickly to uphold liberal democracy and fix the problems that see people turn away from it. Time for the future and that includes someone who can go beyond Brexit, won't cut taxes till they can afford it and everyone needs to show how they would handle the deficit.

-McVey says she will not allow parliament any votes on Brexit before October 31st (Bercow's ears must have perked up)

-Stewart says he is the only one that can beat Boris and decision is if to try to out Farage Farage or to claim the centre ground as Stewart wants to do

=====

-Papers on Gove troubles and Boris pledges

-Hunt says he has talked with Merkel who is open to changes under new leader under new leader and WU leaders accept current backstop plan won't work

-BBC does rundown of European Commission head candidates

-I'm confused as to why only Gove is being questioned about if he told truth in US visa forms about drug taking, was lots of questions about drugs at campaign launch and journalists have started mocking Gove which is a bad sign. Some debate among journalists about Hancock's "emotionally charged" and "I like people" ideas, some find it silly, others think he may be onto something on how to beat populists that they need emotions as well as facts, concerns Gove's "pull out" joke about Boris (which went down badly) is a sign that tensions between the camps are going to get ugly. Sturgeon not impressed by what she is seeing in Tory leadership contest, IFS meanwhile is being made to cry by the irresponsible tax and spending pledges

-Economy shrunk by 0.4% in April with shrinking car manufacturing production really not helping

-We managed to roll over deal with South Korea, big symbolic boost for Dr Fox

-Conservative Home has done 15 questions for the candidates

-Gyimah said he would cut stamp duty and create more homes but dropped out as hadn't built enough support

-First round of leadership results will be Thursday around pm

====

-Baroness Warsi calls for Gove to go but doubt anyone will pay attention

-Sian Berry says Greens are no longer seen as just a protest party

-Soubry says Umunna has huge talents who should be PM and his leaving is a serious mistake

====

-Simon Jenkins thinks Gove situation is absurd
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:08 pm

Tory leadership, Corbyn vs MP's, opposition parties try to prevent no deal, licence fee changes
-I think Hunt's abortion stance is building against him, slowly but building

-Lidington backs Hancock when expected to back Hunt, Fallon backs Boris (was defence secretary when Boris was foreign secretary so boosts credibility). Stewart accuses rivals of reckless tax and spending pledges, of "fairy tales" while second referendum solves nothing, that public services are currently not good enough. Been well noted that Raab failed in the right-wing "92 group" hustings that he was expected to do strongly in (and if Beth Rigby is right, that Boris won over ERG at 1922 hustings then Raab is as good as out) , Gove denies referendum led to rise in hate crime. McVey attacks weak government and Remain cabinet+Parliament for deal and attacks May for risking her own party, of only giving information at last moment to cabinet.

Morgan questions why Boris chose tax cut to rich as main priority, Raab sets his pitch. Hancock would put Brexit plan before Commons within first week to show EU it is deliverable and then seek time-limit on backstop which he feels EU were willing to do if they believed May could get it through Commons. Blackford accuses Tories of naval gazing when Brexit is still a big issue, leadership contest has already shown the nasty party is back with horrific ideas

-Mark Harper promises to give proper answers to any question asked, leaving by October 31st is not possible, only candidate that wasn't in May's cabinet at some point so didn't have any part in Brexit deal and they need to take responsibility for it, would expect any deal to only narrowly pass, no election till after Brexit deal done, would clamp down on leaks. Would do tax cuts for the lowest rather then highest paid, won his seat from Labour unlike other candidates, UK needs to show EU what we can bring to a close friendship, can't do deal with Corbyn but can with Labour MP's, all candidates need to get drug history out there as will come up in general election. Was asked who would win between lion and bear "Because the lion is symbol of Britain, I’ll go with the lion", if we promise Oct31st and fail then Tories are doomed

-Leadsom's launch goes badly as staffer insults the press photographers in their hearing, Leadsom is late and small room. Leadsom says other issues have been ignored due to Brexit, she has record (though tackling Bercow is an odd one), need a compassionate vision, cross-party commission on social care, would pilot holiday meals for children, appoint a police chief for knife crime, time in finance and seeing the crash has given her the cynicism and realism needed on regulation. Tax reform impossible under this parliament, will not withdraw from leadership campaign, can't see why anyone wouldn't call themselves as a feminist as either they are female or required one to be born, doubts parliament can block no deal, would focus on first 1,100 of a child's life. Won't rule out second Scottish referendum as she believes in devolution but would fight hard for union

-Javid's campaign video getting praise, sells the tale of his background well

=====

-Labour PLP apparently got rowdy (the term worst ever being used. A lot) after Corbyn suggests his staff shouldn't be criticized in public and tells Streeting to be quiet when Corbyn is speaking about how anti-racist he is so Streeting brings up the ECHR investigation while even the normally quiet and and loyal figures attacking Corbyn on anti-Semitism or treatment of Thornberry or Forbes. Corbyn has said Brexit strategy is going to evolve but even Corbyn's allies are saying it was bad and worrying

-Papers on leadership contest, BBC license fees and Gove's shot at Boris

-BBC to only give free TV license to over 75's in low income households, where one person receives the pension credit benefit. Tom Watson blames government for this while number 10 say they are disappointed, McVey says it should be restored by cutting other BBC services (not that she herself would have her government pay for it)

-May says leaders have a moral duty to speak up for victims of modern slavery, announces £10 million fund to help deal with slavery in African agriculture, wants transparency statements on modern slavery from big business.

-Shadow Steve Reed rebuilding civil society

-Women and Equalities committee want a ban on gagging orders in contracts

-Sturgeon to meet EU leaders but has been refused help by foreign office as seen as being used for pro-independence, Sturgeon says Hunt was playing to Tory base by such an act

-In what has generally been weeks of awful economic news, unemployment remains a beacon as record employment rates continue

-In cabinet May warned more opposed to no deal then those who back no deal in parliament and her successors have to deal with that, Javid rows with Hammond over no deal money Javid wants for borders while Rudd says such money could be used on children instead and May suggesting she will look over the budget herself (some wondering quite how Javid doesn't have money he was given from March), Cox says proroguing parliament is not illegal and was done in 48 but it comes at a price

-Labour start to try to force through a "no no-deal" bill tomorrow by overriding standing orders to ensure future time for debate, has backing of all opposition parties but would be unprecedented use of opposition day debate.

-Juncker says he has high respect for UK but there will be no changes to withdrawal agreement or backstop (expect majority of Tory leadership candidates to ignore this), his biggest regret was not to speak up during referendum to combat Brexiteer lies, we have spent way too long considering how to replace May rather then Brexit

====

-Ian Murray calls Boris a bigger threat to union then the SNP and wants Ruth Davidson to distance herself from Boris income tax plans, Caroline Lucas bemoans paralysis at curial time, the hypocrisy on drugs and throw right-wing meat to activists to get elected. Sir Soames backs Stewart, IDS backs Boris as others too frightened and lacking fire needed against EU while Boris would generate mood of optimism. Boles wonders if Tory leadership candidates have taken leave of their senses, Alan Duncan points out none of Boris ministers at Foreign Office back Boris

-Hobhouse we must stop exporting plastic waste

-Flint families of addicts need support

====

-BBC Reality check on if Tory leaders proposals are costed

-Kuessenberg a strange start to leadership race

-Hinsliff sense of election coming is sparking Labour MP's concerns
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:26 pm

Leadership including the opener of Boris and Javid, a few moves by government, no deal blocker fails and more
-In an extraordinary move, Rory Stewart said he backs the idea of blocking no deal and prorogation, an hour later he had read Labour's block plan and said he won't vote for it. Too late, he has surely doomed his chances and possibly his immediate cabinet future under May's successor. His campaign has impressed people at Westminster and created a buzz among Westminster press core, some sensing he is the man to beat Corbyn and rejuvenate Tories, he is the man the party needs to lead them so they expect he will fail miserably to get leadership (such a moment is all it takes to make him unelectable).

-Raab refusing to lift 20122 NDA against a female colleague he worked with, Equalities chair Maria Miller getting flak because she opposes NDA's but backs Raab by claiming she doesn't know the details of the case but since Raab's team deny it then she knows the claim was vexatious

-Hunt says he will only part take part in TV debates that all candidates agree to (ie not ones without the suddenly media shy Boris).

-Boris says failure to leave on October31st would destroy party as alienates anyone who believes promised must be delivered, winning in London twice shows he can beat Corbyn, there is a mood of disillusion around the country that needs lifting. Our lack of infrastructure is madness, need to close opportunity gap as he did in London, wants all parts of UK to recover self belief, Corbyn to far left of Livingstone and threat to UK values, will be as friendly as possible to EU as no side wants no deal but must be prepared to do so, his language sometimes lifts plaster from ceilings but people are frustrated at politicians muffling their own voices, dodges around if he took drugs and if he will resign if no Brexit in October, highlights work on knife crime as Mayor, need to promote a new Europeanism in Tory ranks, says a lot about record as Mayor but not as Foreign Secretary

His team are carefully unfolding candidates by one Remainer, one ERG figure so show his reach extends across party and the way the room was packed with all sorts has impressed media. Backed by Cox for ability to unite party and the days we face need big personality, Truss says Boris being attacked so often due to how rivals fear his public appeal, that he was a popular mayor of London and excellent Foreign Secretary, anyone who blames him for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is an apologist for Iranian regime. Press felt Boris speech was solid and dull but his answers waffling and evasive, only doing six questions did not go down well. Stewart tweets "I am trying to restrain myself from tweeting that I’m beginning to think there are only 2 candidates who can beat Boris - me, and Boris himself...."

-Lorraine Kelly snubbing former GMTV colleague McVey well noted

-Javid's leadership launch delayed by "no no-deal" debate in Commons, Ruth Davidson praising his energy and dynamism, noting his background. Javid speaks of the differences he felt as a youngster (people assuming he had holidayed abroad due to "tan", having to walk different routes to avoid violence, warnings of half-caste children when he married a Christian), country doesn't just talk about Brexit and he can offer a vision beyond that, the success of Ruth Davidson with a seemingly doomed Tory party shows going for leaders beyond central casting works, Westminster Tories only one majority in last quarter of a century shows a need for new type of leadership. Party has lost competence and confidence and take on the elites, need a balanced economy, must support families, points out Disraeli was an outside who revived the party. Boris has been around for decades and is yesterday's news, happy for outsiders to come in to investigate Islamophobia in Tory party, has history of doing deals in the City

Generally went down well (one suspects his taking more then planned questions was to contrast from Boris) though fears he may have launched a bit too late, apparently he a spoke a lot better then he has in the past and noted how he linked his youth with the need for something different to reach out to party.

-Gove makes his pitch

====

-Papers anticipating Boris launch, otherwise climate change and license fee

-Government saying BBC needs to do more for older people with Jeremy Wright suggesting BBC show salary restraint for their top staff (BBC says salaries are considerably less then paying for all over75's to have free license)

-Government pledge net-zero emissions by 2050 and laying statuary instrument today (it is likely to pass, making it harder for May's successors to overturn) but will be reviewed in five years to see what other major economies are doing

-Government recalls Whirlpool tumble-dryers four years after fire safety concerns were raised, Reeves questions why it took so long

-Government stops no no-deal opposition plan by majority of 11, a huge blow for those hoping to avoid no deal as it leaves questions of what routes parliament has to actually block any such move from a Raab or a McVey.

-Varadker warns MP's blocking May's deal does not guarantee a new one more to their liking, points out UK has constantly miscalculate during Brexit like that Ireland would back down or be dropped by EU, May was not a bad negotiator and her deal is a finely balanced compromise. Hammond says neither no deal or deal changing will happen and leader candidates are unwise to promise October 31st deadline. European Commission warns no deal remains probably outcome and will not agree to a "managed no deal"

-Morgan has questions for regulators about Neil Woodword issues

-Muslim Council of Britain accuses Tories of a fundamental failure in tackling Islamophobia with hundreds of cases including letting people back in and often ignoring till media gets involved, Tories deny this

-Accusations Boris supporting MP's booed a journalist Beth Rigby for asking question of Boris, Javid pointedly says nobody should be booed for doing their job. Such MP's does nothing to help ensure safety and free press, the MP's involved are not fit for office

-May promises, when asked to stay on by Sheerman and give her successor experienced advice+a taste of their own medicine for their disloyalty, to stay as MP

-Simon Hoare becomes N.Ireland Committee chair as Dr Andrew Murrison became a minister

-Electoral Commission warns Brexit party are still at high risk of accepting rule breaching donations due to way their system is set up and have made suggestions. Brexit party say suggestions are helpful and stress that nothing illegal was found while hoping Commission is doing same to other parties

=====

-Times Iain Martin "Today met several MPs backing Boris because he will definitely do no deal. And an anti-no deal MP backing Boris because he will avoid no deal and get a concession out of Macron and Merkel. Someone is going to end up disappointed."

-Ed Vaizey says government's welfare cuts were reason for pushing BBC to pay for license fees and so can't complain when removed from elderly unless policy is reversed, Whittingdale says they knew this was a potential outcome when they did it.

-Grieve says he would resign whip to bring down government in no confidence vote rather then let no deal Brexit happen

====

-George Monbiot we need to change system to get better kind of leadership

-Behr Brexit dream is dying in the Tory contest

-Luke Akehurst on why why it is better for those opposed to anti-Semitism and Corbyn to stay in Labour and fight rather then leave

-Emma Burnell hype for Rory Stewart is the modernizers making the same mistake again
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:17 pm

Boris miles ahead, it is almost a coronation and he can now pretty much concentrate on activists (though needs to do enough to keep MP's onside so he doesn't blow it). Question will be who can fight for second place and hope they have enough time to counter Boris once that bit is over
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:40 pm

It's very much Boris' to lose. We're all just hoping that he'll implode, meanwhile his supporters are sitting on him , not letting him say anything so that he doesn't...

Daily Politics were trying to talk up Stewart, I found Crabb talking about him interesting though. He is normally considered to be towards the right of the party yet he seemed fairly positive about Stewart (albeit whilst supporting Javid). I wouldn't be surprised if more of the moderate votes start to gravitate towards him.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:27 pm

At least when down to final 2, I think Boris is obliged to turn up for hustings and TV debate. Maybe they will send a cardboard cut out?

I think those inclined for the fresh face will end up merging to one of Stewart, Javid, Hancock (who looks the most vulnerable right now of the three). Now Stewart has got into one ballot an isn't too far behind, he has a chance with media impressed and polls suggesting Stewart is getting cut through with Tories. I still think Javid's backstory and some of Stewart's tactics will give it to Javid of the three

Tory leadership and other stories
First ballot result, everyone voted: Boris at 114 is clear front runner with 105 being the number needed to get to final two so bar a implosion, he is there. Nobody else got above 50! Hunt 43 (will allow him to claim second second place and "best placed to challenge" as he moves for votes), Gove 37 (still in the game after a bad weekend), Raab 27 (probably as high as he will get, even if all of Leadsom and McVey supporters flock to him that won't be enough), Javid 23 (will be pleased after late launch), Hancock 20, Stewart 19 are in. Eliminated: Leadsom (11), Harper (10), McVey (9) are out, the lack of females left is going to be a tad awkward.

Hustings will be key and calculations of who is best to align to, some voters will switch camps to who they think is best placed to finish 2nd or to challenge Boris, some may seek to join team winner aka Boris, Gove, Hancock and Stewart could be vulnerable to a squeeze. To stay in contention, a candidate will need 33 votes next Tuesday. This is a huge result for Boris, he can focus more towards the activists, he can claim to unify all wings of the party and that it shows his campaigning skills once more. They just need him to avoid self imploding before they get to the activists.

-Javid makes his pitch, later says he was hurt by being excluded from Trump banquet and was told they rarely are invited by number 10 (Jacqiu Smith says she was always invited, May's team point out May wasn't at Obama's state banquet).

-Leadsom says no second Scottish referendum on her watch

-Stewart pledges more money and power to Scottish Secretary and if Boris tried to prorogue parliament like Charles 1st then parliament (with him involved) would bring him down, Boris is not being straight with people, argues it is between him and Boris. is team were in a desperate hunt for Ken Clarke but managed to get him to vote in time

-Hunt saying phrase serious leader (ie not Boris) a lot

-1922 Committee strictly enforced, even on most senior MP's, the need for ID and have arranged 16 hustings, rumours the final two candidates have to pay £150k for hustings and that phones were barred from ballot room due to Boris team insisting photo's of pro-Boris votes be taken

=====

-Papers on Boris or failure of those opposed to no deal,, Times claiming Boris has told Brexiteers he is willing to prorogue parliament

-Tory MP's cheered defeat of blocking no deal and Corbyn can be heard telling them "you won't be cheering in September", was ten Tory rebels and eight Labour rebels

-I do wonder why the Jo Brand's joke (that throwing milkshake at Farage is pathetic, battery acid should have been used instead) hasn't got more attention.

-Politicians welcome Facebook investment into digital safety team in UK


-Only 4 of 11 members of Foreign Affairs Select (chair Tugendhat backing Gove) went to N.Ireland trip, unclear why

-With Stewart now becoming second favourite among some in Westminster, being noted it would be our 20th Old Etonian PM and 101st year out of 298 years of parliamentary democracy (34% of time)

-Mundell says he will refuse to vote for Boris as no deal would be a disaster for Scotland, thinks Boris will fade under scrutiny. Hammond asks leadership candidates to pledge to reduce debt every year

====

-Labour MP Gareth Snell says he was wrong to vote with party against May's deal and would vote for it if it returned to Commons

-Political Academic Philip Cowley "If I was a Conservative MP, I'm fairly certain by now I'd have pledged my support to Boris Johnson - because he'll probably win and I want a job - but I doubt I'd actually vote for him. I am a shit, yes, but then the parliamentary party contains a fair few of them."

-Osborne, via Evening Standard, says they could back Boris if the liberal Boris of old, Ken Clarke says some MP's are scared of Boris winning and Boris is a man who just muddles through day by day with no consistent belief's or policy detail

-Sir Major says proroguing parliament over policy disagreement is very dangerous, it is unconstitutional and Brexiteers suggesting it are both distasteful and hypocritical

-Change.UK says they will change their name to “The Independent Group for Change” thanks to legal challenge from Change.Org

====

-Kuessenberg Boris the unifier

-Jonathan Lis on the opposition's defeat

-Beth Rigby Javid closes in on Boris

-Behr on the race of the two Boris

-Rentoul wins for Boris and Stewart
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:06 pm

I agree. I think the drug stuff has killed Gove's campaign, and he was always the most vulnerable because ultimately he is the most disliked by the public. Meanwhile I think Hunt at only 40 seats will lose out to Javid/Stewart. At least partly because I can't see him beating Johnson with the party members. So I think Stewart and Javid will be the last of the opposition standing. Will be fascinating, I just wish it wasn't our future on the line.

As two the Jo Brand stuff, as I've said so many times, there is a double standard when it comes to the left.
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