2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Kongde » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:22 am

Jordan wrote:I believe Warren will be the Democratic nominee. I believe Trump will defeat her and win in 2020. These odds can be defeated under two conditions, which may not be mutually exclusive. Democrats can win if they move fast and are able to impeach Trump and stain him with scandal. He does not have to be convicted and removed from office, but impeachment will hurt him, not help him. This is a test of strength for the Democrats. If they are unable to move quickly enough, they will demonstrate absolute weakness and Trump will just barely skirt by again. Second, if the economy goes into recession before the election ramps up, this will also hurt Trump and may allow Democrats to win. My predictions are based on betting odds, momentum, primary and general election polling and the prediction metrics of Allan Lichtman, who uses 13 different scales to determine the strength of the two political parties in the United States. It is still a long way away from the 2020 election, and it's very possible specific events may change the dynamics of the race and alter my predictions. Currently, this is what I think is likely.


I tend to side with your views, though I do think Warren has an ever so slightly better chance than Hillary did in 2016, so I do not tend to lean in thinking that Trump will win (Unless Biden is the nominated candidate, which we will for sure lose). The reason for this being is that Trump, since being elected in 2016, has not gained any more supporters. Rather, quite the opposite. Trump has lost many supporters over his presidency due to various reasons, while not gaining any additional ones to make up for it. In 2016 against Hillary, a fairly unfavorable candidate (in my opinion, they have a rather stained name to begin with, for various reasons), he still lost the popular vote by quite a margin. And people on the Left have seen how Trump is and will likely vote even if they particularly don't care for the candidate just to not have him again. You can only expect more voter turnout on the Left side, and likely the same to less on the Right side. This sends a strong signal to me that the odds of Trump winning are quite low and stacked against him, not in his favor.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:46 pm

Is Trump pulling out of Syria or not and, though I seriously doubt it will matter in elections, will it hinder in any impeachment fight? What do people thin of Trump's announcement beyond that? Will Turkey really be curbed by threat to destroy their economy if they take advantage?
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Jordan » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:04 pm

I'd have to look at the electoral college numbers again, but I think I looked at it a long time ago and found that Trump could afford to lose all of the rust belt states he won in 2016 if he holds in other places he won. I do think he will lose some of those rust belt states. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are trending more Democratic lately. But if he loses all those and wins in all the other close states he won, or picks up some close ones HRC won like Virginia, it won't matter. He'll win the electoral college, but just not by as much. Florida could literally be decided this time by whether former convicts do ultimately end up getting the franchise or not. Florida voters voted to give them that right, but they may try to limit it, and this is likely just enough to tip it toward Republicans; current RCP polling shows an advantage for Trump there, but just within the margin of error.

Incidentally, this is the first time I've ever seen Biden with a totally negligible lead throughout this primary season. Warren is now within the margin of error, and in many polls she is leading. I think the whole Ukraine scandal may have damaged Biden as much as Trump because of the weak and incompetent way he handled the whole thing, which is pretty much Biden in a nutshell throughout this primary. I think Warren's got this. Her challenger from the left had a heart attack, while her challenger from the right is a bumbling, senile buffoon whose fundraising and support is dwindling. I actually wonder at this point if it may come down to Warren vs. Sanders, as I just don't know how many times Biden can flub pretty much any appearance he makes. He really has nothing other than his name recognition. In previous primaries he also tended to fizzle out or implode, and it seems like that's been happening non-stop this time.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Kongde » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:55 pm

Dong Zhou wrote:Is Trump pulling out of Syria or not and, though I seriously doubt it will matter in elections, will it hinder in any impeachment fight? What do people thin of Trump's announcement beyond that? Will Turkey really be curbed by threat to destroy their economy if they take advantage?

To my knowledge he is. But he has quite an awful habit of being impulsive and making decisions on a whim and then changing his mind at the last second, as has happened several times throughout his term, sometimes as close as a few minutes before the action would have been taken before calling it off. You truly cannot even predict if he will because even if he says he will he could last minute change his mind. But at this particular moment, he is pulling out of Syria and turned his back on our Kurd allies and threatened to destroy the Turkish economy. In 2015, he himself has said he has a conflict of interest with two major trump towers in Istanbul and many speculate his decision is more for personal gain and has relation to this.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Jordan » Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:47 am

I'm glad he pulled out of Syria. If I'm assessing the political ramifications, my best guess is that the neocons and neoliberals will bludgeon him over it, threatening subtly and not so subtly to support impeachment unless he changes his position. This is purely a corrupt calculation based on who is receiving donor money from defense contractors or other special interests with something to gain from endless U.S. war. We should have never become involved in Syria or any other Middle Eastern country to begin with. It's time to end the last half-century or more of internecine U.S. involvement in countries we don't belong in and scale back the U.S. military to a reasonable peacetime level.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Kongde » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:22 am

Jordan wrote:I'm glad he pulled out of Syria. If I'm assessing the political ramifications, my best guess is that the neocons and neoliberals will bludgeon him over it, threatening subtly and not so subtly to support impeachment unless he changes his position. This is purely a corrupt calculation based on who is receiving donor money from defense contractors or other special interests with something to gain from endless U.S. war. We should have never become involved in Syria or any other Middle Eastern country to begin with. It's time to end the last half-century or more of internecine U.S. involvement in countries we don't belong in and scale back the U.S. military to a reasonable peacetime level.

I agree, however, would it not be improper to just leave after intervening, meddling in their affairs, at this point it's too late to just pull out suddenly. We have a responsibility now to clean up the mess we've created, for how can it be fair to intervene and then just decide to randomly leave after creating a situation equal to the one before, maybe worse. And on top of that, now we've created more enemies. I am with you in that I believe the USA should never have been involved in middle eastern wars, and I believe in being an isolationist country, I don't believe in meddling in foreign affairs unless we are directly attacked. However, Trump's reasoning is not a good one. As I stated above, he has quite the major conflict of interest with what he himself called a major pair of Trump Towers in Istanbul, Turkey. Odds are his reasoning was more so in line with protecting the interests of his business, rather than the interests of our country.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Shikanosuke » Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:34 pm

I share the sentiment that we shouldn't have become involved in Syria, but we did. Trump's move is very worrisome, to me, from a foreign policy and humanitarian perspective. Our word to help allies, such as Syrian Kurds, continues to be worth less and less (which I'm not sure it ever has been more than an opportunistic farce). Can't see how the SDF won't have to face Turkish forces to safeguard Kurds and its territory, and therefore creating the issue of Islamic State all over again. Following that, I don't even know how bad the humanitarian crisis there will be, but there are multiple reports it won't be pretty. Sure, we should have let Assad handle his country, but we didn't. These days I try to never endorse violent action if possible, and the whole "bring the troops home" message sounds nice (as I agree with Jordan about the scaling back of our military expenses as well) but I'm not sure this is the manner in which to do it.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Jordan » Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:55 pm

There's never a winning time to pull out. There's always the fear that if we pull out "now," everything will collapse like dominoes, but that just goes to how ramshackle the policy of propping up various groups against other groups has been. There's a similar problem in other countries like Afghanistan and Iraq, and it's reminiscent of what happened in Vietnam. We end up in these long wars that last for years, and nobody wants to pull out because they know it will be a disaster when we do, but the alternative is to stay there forever wasting resources for decades. We're never going to create a stable situation. It's total folly. Time to cut our losses and move on.

I don't believe pulling out of any agreements we made with the Kurds will have any effect on our foreign policy on a larger scale. The only thing I might agree with is that Trump did this too suddenly and without giving even the U.S. military time to prepare. He should have set a strict timeline or done this in a more organized way. I agree with the policy itself.
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2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Shikanosuke » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:40 pm

Jordan wrote:There's never a winning time to pull out. There's always the fear that if we pull out "now," everything will collapse like dominoes, but that just goes to how ramshackle the policy of propping up various groups against other groups has been. There's a similar problem in other countries like Afghanistan and Iraq, and it's reminiscent of what happened in Vietnam. We end up in these long wars that last for years, and nobody wants to pull out because they know it will be a disaster when we do, but the alternative is to stay there forever wasting resources for decades. We're never going to create a stable situation. It's total folly. Time to cut our losses and move on.


So I certainly don't disagree that choosing to a time to depart is ever easy, but i feel like we must apprise the situation and acknowledge the consequences. This isn't really like iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam. We didn't invade Syria (nor should we have). But we were assisting forces which were in some part fighting a civil war and in some part fighting a group that we essentially created (ISIS). Unlike the conflicts/countries you mentioned our troops, to my knowledge, weren't stored there to prop up a country and do post-colonial nation building. It's therefore a lot easier for me hear talk of 'cutting our losses' in the countries you mentioned than in the limited capacity that I understand them to have been playing in northern Syria.

Then there's the consequences, if our forces and special forces were largely there to train the SDF and assist the Kurds in fighting ISIS and we know if pulling out may cause an ISIS reemergence (idk what Assad is doing tbh) to then it would seem counter productive to our interests in syria, neighboring Iraq, and really the middle East as a whole. That's again not mentioning the humanitarian cost this may cause on the populations.

I don't believe pulling out of any agreements we made with the Kurds will have any effect on our foreign policy on a larger scale.


I can agree with this in the sense that most of the ME allies don't trust us, shouldn't trust us, and we continue to abandon and pick up the Kurds when it suits our interest....so that won't change. But again we're talking of essentially permitting one "Ally" to wage war on our allies the Kurds and SDF. Rough diplomacy there.

The only thing I might agree with is that Trump did this too suddenly and without giving even the U.S. military time to prepare. He should have set a strict timeline or done this in a more organized way. I agree with the policy itself.


I mean I'd also criticize him for not listening to any of his security folks, foreign policy analysts, our alleged allies, or humanitarian groups of warning against this hasty move.
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Speculation

Unread postby Kongde » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:06 pm

Shikanosuke wrote:
Jordan wrote:
The only thing I might agree with is that Trump did this too suddenly and without giving even the U.S. military time to prepare. He should have set a strict timeline or done this in a more organized way. I agree with the policy itself.


I mean I'd also criticize him for not listening to any of his security folks, foreign policy analysts, our alleged allies, or humanitarian groups of warning against this hasty move.


There is never really an "ideal" time - but you can weigh the odds and see when the risk factor is at the lowest. I find it quite sloppy and irresponsible to barge in whenever we decide to, and just leave it whenever we decide to. Yes, it absolutely is a waste of our resources, the entire situation of going in to begin with was a waste, but perhaps we should have thought of that before barging into another country's affairs, now we must reap the consequences and see it through in my opinion. I'm all for pulling out, it just must be done at the right time. This was not the right time. Iraq/Iran/Afghan we should pull out because our presence has done little to begin with, if anything, it has only served to worsen the situation, so our leaving could not pose nearly as much of a threat there. However, as he has stated with Syria, the situation and dynamics there are totally different.

Personally, I believe we should work towards withdrawing all troops worldwide back home, and get rid of most, if not every military base we have overseas (if nothing else, cut it down significantly). We should turn back to becoming an isolationist nation. This way, we can free up a large portion of our tax dollars for either tax cuts or social programs suggested by Bernie. Regardless, I find it an immense waste of resources to continue to funnel our taxpayer dollars into endless wars. We are not the world's police as they would like you to believe. In my opinion, no matter how good the intention, very seldom is interfering with another country's affairs a good idea, and often can cause more harm than good, and only serves to create more enemies and threats for us
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