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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Sun Fin » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Pretty much non-existent. May’s selling point has always been that she will honour the original referendum result no matter what, but in the least financially crippling way possible. She simply can't go back on her promise not to have a second referendum. I also don't think she would, she genuinely believes that the first one was morally binding. So, as long as she holds on to power it won’t happen.

If she falls then the conservatives will get another chance to form a government under a new leader elected by the Tory membership, who are fairly hardcore leavers. So we'll get one of the leading Brexiters, who clearly also won't want a second referendum. If they are unable to form a government then it's Corbyn's turn, a hardcore Labour leaver. Now his party do want a second referendum but he definitely doesn't. He has always been anti-Europe but has been keeping it quiet for the last year or two because it's a stick to beat May with. I have no doubts that if he has power he'll pursue a hard Brexit as well.

Put simply May is the least bad option, which is what has allowed her to survive the last two years.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:10 am

Jia Nanfeng wrote:What is the likelihood that another vote is held?


Better then it was perhaps, the people's vote camapign has got it's act together (not in any deeper form like how to actually win it) but I don't think much of it's chances. Maybe maybe if polls showed consistently high public backing for a people's vote, some dynamics might change but I agree with Sun Fin.

The Brexiteers don't want it, May feels it is wrong in principle, no running Tory leader can suggest it. Labour is open to it but Corbyn, as a life long Brexiteer having to pretend he isn't, is clearly not in favour and "so close to power"/party or personal loyalty should keep enough of his party onside. There are plenty of MP's who aren't Brexiteers who worry a second referendum would feel like "you voted wrong you stupid people, vote right this time" and even if not that, would be even more divisive (the referendum has been a poison in the system as even the pinnacle of politeness Rees-Mogg loses head when comes to Brexit) without solving anything.

Edit: I should add there is a practical problem of lack of time to hold one. Even rushed through (and that won't happen as too many MP's would oppose and would be fierce debates on things like the questions, 2 or 3?), it would take six months and be extremely difficult for the Electoral Commission who haven't sorted out some of the problems from the last one.
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:36 pm

-Reshuffle: May's old ally Amber Rudd makes a return to front line as goes to DWP, will need to be more on top of the detail then was at Home Office but will feel freer to make her mark then she in Home Office and a chance to rebuild her reputation. For Brexit, a surprise choice Steve Barclay, the City Minister is a Brexiteer, well liked and respected (he was a clever figure on backbenches) but not a household name and a huge jump. Getting promoted to a lesser cabinet role would have been welcomed, this suggests May either can't (as won't renegotiate) or really doesn't want get cabinet Brexiteers other then Gove, Barclaey being a friend to May's chief of staff Barwell won't hurt. However May will also have business in mind, she needs them to get behind her deal to strengthen her hand and Barclay has impressed them in discussions about Brexit and is known for having an understanding of detail.

At lower level, the experienced Remainers Stephen Hammond (health) and John Penrose (N.Ireland) return to office while Hammond's PPS Kwasi Kwarteng gets first job, the Brexiteer getting Brexit rank.

-Mordaunt pushing hard for free vote on Brexit deal

-Daily Star only paper not to go on May's defiant stand while Mail is attacking Brexiteers for attacking May

-May does LBC phone in, first is Tory councillor demanding she resign for a Brexiter, last compares to Neville Chamberlain, she seems to be suggesting Hancock's "people could do" isn't quite what she heard but mentions her insulin comes from Denmark, refuses to agree with £350 million to NHS promise, doesn't rule out free vote so number 10 has to quash that quickly.

-Kevin Schofield interviews Tom Watson

-Early Youguv polling suggests public hate her deal but feel May is, by a fair margin, best choice to handle Brexit.

-May's battle has got front pages all over Europe

-Some frustrated May didn't tackle head on Brexiteers during her press statement

-Tory whips summoned to emergency meeting, believed they have the no confidence mark

-Gove stays in cabinet, don't think Brexiteers will forgive him. Cabinet Brexiteers seem to have decided to try and push May renegotiate

-McDonnell says Labour could secure a majority on Brexit and with the right atmosphere, EU would be wiling for more compromises

-Merkel says no more negotiations, French PM Edouard Philippe says UK uncertainty means prep for no deal must continue, Verhofstadt says there isn't room to restart talk, Austria’s chancellor Sebastian Kurz says good deal for both sides, Spain calls for second referendum

-Some amazement at seeing DUP back Corbyn

-Bradley says deal shows May gets things done and is good for union

-Carwyn Jones calls for second referendum if May is toppled and no election

-Lord Lester not suspended and referred back committee, Lords very fortunate I suspect this came amidst other news

-William Hill has stopped taking bets on when May leaves office

-Conveny embarrassed by booing of God Save Queen booed during rugby match

-Lidington points out to SNP that N.Ireland has always had a special status due to EU border and violent history, idea is backstop never used, amazed by May's resilience. In a row over if Sturgeon refused to meet him (she says he only offered at last minute)

-Dr Fox urges fellow Brexiteers to take a calm rational view of the deal

-Rudd says some MP's seem a bit too concerned with Westminster bubble, confident May will survive and urges MP's to think again, will seek to iron out difficulties in Universal Credit

====

-Davis calls it a very bad deal, May's deal will be defeated then we can go back to EU and demand concessions (given he couldn't even win the first fight he had with EU....), might a hiccup or two in first 2 years but EU would be quick to offer free trade deal (didn't he says this wouldn't be easiest deal in history?), refuses to call for May to go ((though he says due to being outside country means it is against convention).

-Morgan backs deal

-Paterson says deal so bad it can't be allowed to proceed, WTO would be better then now

-Adam Holloway, Francois, Fysh, Chris Green, Whitingdale submits no confidence vote

-Farage admits he hasn't actually read the "worst deal in history"

-Alan Duncan walks out of interview when asked what if major don't back deal

-Baroness Parmiter wants more ambition on plastic waste

-Baker thinks they won't get 48 letters this weekend as some will consider over weekend and talk to local parties, future leadership contest should have only one Brexiteer candidate but Rees-Mogg's lack of governmental experience means it can't be him, he respects tand views as reasonble the views of Gove and other Brexiteers in cabinet to stay on but they won't be backed for leadership by Baker's group

-Soames says public displays of no confidence are vulgar virtue signalling

-Shapps says he won't put in letter for now

-CBI welcomes deal as hard won progress and urges MP's not to go backwards

====

-Hinsliff May is running out of time

-Katya Adler twitter thread on EU thinking
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:22 pm

-UN report condemns UK austerity policy and it's impact on child poverty particularly

-Leadsom, Gove, Grayling, Mordaunt and Fox trying to persuade May to change deal

-Barclay (who was also health minister) won't be going to Brussels, his job is to help get bill through Commons. BBC profile

-D'Arcy's uncertain Week Ahead

-Labour trying to pain Rudd is a disgraced minister, not sure it will work given the clear civil service guilt and the respect she is held in.

-BBC with a list of those who have said they have sent letter against May

-Rolls Royce stockpiling

====

-Kuessenberg warns despite the calm, danger is far from over for May

-Tom Ederington for BBC Reality check on why some object to May's deal, Chris Morris on deal itself [/ur]

-Katya Adler on [url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46234086] EU's attitude


-Dominic Sandbrook feels Thatcher couldn't have got a better deal and lets rip at May's opponents

-Forsyth (sun) bad Brexit deal and May should resign to get it through

-Phil Burton-Cartledge does a Vote Labour article
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:47 pm

-Boris and Davis allegedly met to decide who would run against May

-Raab no longer playing nice, saying UK must stand up to EU bullies and if he had his way, we would not look frightened of our own shadow and need to show we can walk away if EU tries to bully us, claims he was hoodwinked by late changes which changed it from a good deal. However he says would back May in leadership contest, no deal would require a bit of grit in short term but would be better long term then proposed deal

-Leadsom (seen as leader of Brexiteers in cabinet) says still hope deal can be improved, jokes she needs a lot of exercise for all the pizza meetings she is alleged to be having

-McDonnell says if we change atmosphere, we can still negotiate a better deal

-May calling up constituency chairs, doing media and social media blitz, says she is still in talks with Brussels but now about future relationship

-PSNI Chief Constable George Hamilton says border violence fears are not being exaggerated and anything that brings back a border brings problems

-Environmental Audit Committee has summoned retail bosses to discuss their impact on environment via fashion and micro-plastics

-Baroness Chakrabarti vs Marr sees both really get on each other's nerves. She warns long way from ending Brexit (isn't implying they will, was asked if possible and she gave a technical answer)

-Sam Gyimah confirms intensive two year university courses as something government wishes to bring in

-EU says extending transition would cost £10 billion

-Corbyn seems sceptical about chances of second referendum happening, hasn't read every page of the Brexit agreement but understands what is in it

-Sturgeon keen to talk to Corbyn for a progressive alliance on Brexit, has some sympathy with May

-Graham Brady says he hasn't got 48 letters and not even his wife knows the true number, is offended at idea he sits on such letters to avoid hitting 48 but urges people to really think through if no confidence vote is a good idea, not particularly happy with deal but hopes trading part gives more optimism, doubts current deal can get through Commons

=====

-Sir Duncan says challenging May won't improve deal but "All it's likely to do is create chaos, break the government, break the party and leave the country in great disarray."

-Burt warns Brexiteers that if faced with no deal, Remain MP's may stop choosing to "respect the result"

-Goldsmith (prefers remain over May's deal) and Sir Cash adds to letters of no confidence, known total as of this morning is 25.

-CBI backing May's deal

-Cable on Corbyn "I am afraid the socialist leader of the past will go down in history as Mrs May's little helper."

-Jeffrey Donaldson says N.Ireland business groups opposing no deal doesn't mean DUP are clashing with business as they don't speak for all business, farmers and so on
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:38 pm

-Corbyn describes EU stance that UK can't have same benefits as membership (which Labour is demanding) as a view

-Greg Clarke warns there can't be substantive changes to withdrawal agreement, open to extending transition

-Barnier offers extension of transition period till December 2022, May has said for her it needs to end by next election

-Dr Fox backs May but has reservations about the deal

-May says agreement has been reached in full and restores UK borders, expects to hammer out trade framework in week with summit to sign on Sunday, business needs to do more to publicly defend free markets

-Spain making noises about Gibraltar issue not sorted

-Eu Foreign Ministers carefully falling into line on "will not reopen talks"

-Vardaker promises not to impose hard border whatever happens

-Rudd says she will do better on UC and listen to charities, not impressed by UN report

-Hunt hopes declaration on future relationship will help put minds on both sides at rest

====

-Nadine Dorries has an interesting reason for being angry with May's Brexit deal: We lose our EU Commissioner spot and our MEP's.

Fair to say, she is getting hammered.

-Simon Clark (May driving ship into rocks, won't be government due to loss of DUP in few weeks unless change) sends in letter, Anne Marie Morris

-Davis on still aiming for Canada style deal, wants vote on Brexit deal to be this Thursday before summit

-Lord Howard opposes May's deal but says leadership contest is a distraction when deal needs to be reviewed, UK and EU should be working together on no deal prep

-Andrew Mitchell against leadership contest, compares it to moves against Thatcher in 1990

-Lord Lilley says May giving up control to EU and not honouring democratic vote so May should be ousted

-Boris calls deal total defeat, wants a cabinet minister to oversee acceleration towards WTO terms

-Raab warns ousting May won't make Brexit deal any easier

-Shapps makes clear he has read it all

-Boris water cannon sold for huge loss

-Bridgen predicted the 48 letters by end of day

-Baker says some who told him they have sent in letters clearly haven't

====

-John Harris unhappy with Labour's stance on Brexit, Mary Kaldor with her own critique

-Kate Maltby on Lords handling of Lord Lester case

-Oliver Wiseman urges Tory MP's back deal to stop Corbyn

-Rentoul fears opposition parties stance may lead to no deal Brexit

-Craig Berry feels May's deal is closer to what people wanted then her Brexiteers think
“You, are a rebellious son who abandoned his father. You are a cruel brigand who murdered his lord. How can Heaven and Earth put up with you for long? And unless you die soon, how can you face the sight of men?”
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:21 pm

-Hunt feels May has most difficult job of any western leader and ousting her would destabilize the country

-Penrose words, before he became minister, that May's deal is dead has leaked out

-DUP demands May keeps her side of agreement with them and abstained on budget vote

-Government to publish econimic modelling before Brexit vote that compares May's deal to Remain and to no deal

-A sense the Brexiteer no confidence revolt has fizzled out

-Sturgeon goes to London to try to build cross party alliance against May's deal

-Carney seems positive of deal, warns there is very little historical guidance of what to do when advanced economy suffers a big supply shock while Bank's Chief Economist Andy Haldane says Brexit uncertainty really hurting economy, Bank of England members generally paint no deal as very very bad.

-Not sure Sammy Wilson calling those business and farming groups in N.Ireland who have backed May's deal as "puppets of Northern Ireland office" is helpful

-Some awkwardness as Corbyn was at home during budget amendment that government lost by five

-Spain Foreign Minister Josep Borrell "worried" of UK splitting about

-Government agrees to Kirsty Blackman's amendment for a review of public health impact of gambling

====

-Ken Clarke feels relations with DUP are completely broken

-Rees-Mogg urges patience on 48 votes and says government is led by Remainers with May making a deliberate decision not to deliver Brexit, admires Captain Mainwaring when compared to Dad's Army, fears if May not ousted now then she will survive till election

-Baker says if May loses Brexit vote then letters of no confidence will flood in, hard to know if will reach magic number before then.

-Damien Collins won't back Brexit deal

-Dorries says those waiting for losing Brexit vote are gambling as that defeat could lead to all sorts of unforeseen candidate

-Rushnara Ali calls Carney Chancellor.

-Dr Woolostan putting forward informed consent amendment to Brexit

-Welsh Labour suspend Jenny Rathbone fpr her remarks last year that questioned if anti-Semitism was real, she has apologized after comments came to light.

====

-Behr on deal reflects May

-Sean Walsh is scathing about May's deal though feels he goes too far in personal shots at May

-Alex Massie on Brexit impact on Scottish Politics

-Henry Newman offers proposed changes to deal to get it through parliament

-David Hening looks at Brexiteers latest paper
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:08 pm

-Dawn Butler on efforts to get more woman in parliament

-Sturgeon and Verhofstadt objects to May saying EU citizens can no longer jump the immigration queue

-Rudd says anything could happen if May's deal is rejected, she believes parliament would block a no deal (May will not find it helpful), wants Universal Credit to get cash to people earlier, looking at if to reserve it from the change to monthly payments to older system

-Works and Pensions Committee concerned that those on housing benefit being put on blacklists by banks for landlords with buy-to-let mortgages and the like

-Strong sense armed forces preparing to be used if no deal Brexit

-McDonnell says parliament won't support no deal and Labour will try to block that via amendments or forever legislative war of attrition, Labour were wring to share platform with others during referendum

-Public borrowing more then expected for October at £8.8 billion due to fall in income

-Merkel says she had opposed UK having unilateral decision on when to end backstop

-Doubt May was delighted at first question at PMQ's was Rosindell attacking deal but she was when Corbyn got customs Irish sea border and regulatory border confused

-May says looking at review into sex work to inform policy

-Mordaunt wants equality department to focus less on boardrooms now but at unskilled and lowly paid

-Bercow rebukes Crouch, Bardell and Peacock for playing football in the chamber, they have apologized

-HMRC says way too late to install optmital customs systems in time for no deal Brexit day and would take two years

=====

-Nadine Dorries doesn't want to be seen as ousting the only second female PM. Having sent in her no confidence letter...

-Patrick Grady on Visa issues

-Greening calls for second referendum

-Plaid's Adam Price backs Sturgeon's attempts to build alliance on Brexit and urges Labour to join

-Easyjet confident planes will fly after Brexit

-Sir Jenkin will vote against deal

-Ken Clarke will vote for deal but doubts it will get through

====

-Katya Adler on May returning to Brussels

-Simon Jenkins history shows we will return to Europe in some shape or form

-Peter Divey bemoans people vote narrative taking hold
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:16 pm

-Carney is now a British citizen

-Telegraph claiming Hunt is worried we will be become like Turkey if we stick to May's deal

-Hinds wants teachers to encourage children to climb trees, build rockets and watch the sun rise.

-Concerns were starting to grow that the future co-operation text were taking far longer then expected with Gibraltar and Fishing Rights an issue (Merkel had warned without it agreed, she would not turn up to summit) but agreement has been found.

-McDonnell says he can't be friends with a Tory as he can't forgive them for what they have done

-Buzzfeed Alex Wickham with a list of Tory MP's who say they won't vote for May's deal

-Intelligence Committee highly critical of security services failure to learn lessons and Manchester attacks could have been prevented

-Hancock says second referendum is possible if May's deal voted down but it would be a terrible idea

-A sense frictionless trade dream with EU has died, max fac brought back into play but not sure anyone outside Brexiteer circles believes it will happen, gone from 7 pages to 26 but a lot seems to be kicking can down road

-Sturgeon says agreement confirms blindfold Brexit and fears fisheries have been sold out, in a row with Mundell over if he should resign

-May says deal is within their grasp and she is detrimened to deliver it, public wants politicians to move on now, is working towards frictionless trade

-Bercow twice reminds Leadsom that Commons had been promised Brexit bill would be amendable

-Government arguing they defeated EU attempts to impose red line on fishing

-Sir Bill Cash's European Scrutiny Committee will launch inquiry into how government handled talks

====

-Some unhappiness at Clive Lewis jokingly faking suicide during debate

-Jo Swinson says Westminster has a lot to do on gender equality in own ranks

-Clare Bailey is new N.Ireland Green leader

-IDS does not seem to be won over by max fac sop and May's attempts to soothe him

====

-Larry Elliot surprised at economic pessimism with Brexit, suspect this points him at odd with his guardian fellows

-Manuel Cortes believes May's deal is vassalage so Labour must go for hard Remain and Reform

-Newton Emerson on DUP relations with business

-James Lansdale on Hunt's visit to Iran

-Peter Foster on the Brexit declaration
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Re: UK Politics

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Fri Nov 23, 2018 7:30 pm

-Mail says time to get on with Brexit, several wonder how May can hope to get deal through, Telegraph backs Boris and co wanting to end backstop, Telegraph and Times call it vague, Sun not a fan, Express wonders why so many MP's left before May had finished statement.

-Intelligence Committee asks advertisers to boycott tech giants till they show they are serious about tackling certain issues

-Hinds wants more international students to hep fund universities, Home Office may be less keen, he believes people will come round to deal rather then uncertain alternatives

-Chris Morris Reality Checks on the new agreement

-A sense EU wants Spain to agree to deal so it is unanimous but aren't keen on letting Spain have veto

-Foster seeking meeting with Northern Irish business

-GCHQ warns about online threads due to Black Friday

-Bercow demands Leadsom listen to him

-Government adds £50m ($64m) in aid money to help stop female genital mutilation in Africa.

-Rudd promises Universal Credit review on impact on woman and particularly single markets

-May refuses to say she won't resign if she loses deal vote and struggles to say we will be better of for Brexit (she manages "different")

-Hammond and Boris going to DUP conference

======

-Mark Tami on phycological support for cancer survivors and family

-UKIP hire Tommy Robinson as adviser, Farage is trying to force a no confidence vote in leader Batten (the latter has pointed to Farage's history of racism making it a bit rich of Farage to comment and Farage left two years ago)

-Raab says better to Remain then for May's deal to go ahead (People Vote campaigners loving this), expects deal to be voted down

-CBI accidentally sends emails to ITV revealing that they don't think May's deal is a good one

====

-Iain Dale Brady as potential leader, who is clearly planning to run, female sympathy for May and keep an eye on Robert Buckland

-Sienna Rodgers thinks Labour MP's and activists could have major split on Brexit

-Mark Urban on German concerns at how UK leaving will impact EU politics

-Professor Vernon Bogdanor suspects there might be more then one referendum ahead

-Andrew McQuillian DUP conference
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