What if Cao Cao was defeated at Guan Du?

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What if Cao Cao was defeated at Guan Du?

Unread postby football11f » Sat May 15, 2004 2:58 am

What if Cao Cao had lost to Yuan Shao at the Battle of Guan Du? How would the history of the Three Kingdoms changed? Would Yuan Shao have actually defeated Cao Cao?

My opinion: I feel that if Cao Cao had been defeated the war in the north would have lasted for many years taking a huge toll on both sides. I feel Cao Cao would have taken up a guerrilla style of fighting and wear down Yuan Shao. I think Yuan Shao's superior numbers, however, would eventually be the deciding factor and Cao Cao would in the end be defeated.
This means that Yuan Shao is the ruler of the central plains. After this I feel Yuan Shao would have been blinded by ambition and attack Liu Biao (If he was still alive) and Sun Quan without rebuilding his forces. If Yuan Shao did this he would be whiped off the planet simply because Yuan Shao didn't have the same quality of generals, the generals that kept Wei alive after Chi Bi. Yuan Shao did not have these types of generals.
Perhaps Sun Quan would then be the one who won out in the end.
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Re: What-If Cao Cao had Been Defeated at Guan Du?

Unread postby Wanghui » Sat May 15, 2004 4:34 am

football11f wrote:If Yuan Shao did this he would be whiped off the planet simply because Yuan Shao didn't have the same quality of generals, the generals that kept Wei alive after Chi Bi. Yuan Shao did not have these types of generals.


Hey, how about ex-Wei general ? there's possibility that they surrender after Cao Cao is beaten

Perhaps Sun Quan would then be the one who won out in the end


How about Liu Bei ? do you forget him ?
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sat May 15, 2004 6:32 pm

Defeat is not very specific actually.Cao Cao actually did intend to withdraw from Guan Du and pull back to the central region but Xun Yu counselled him to remain and fight.
If Cao Cao's pulls out with minimal losses then I think he still has a good chance against Yuan Shao.He is still quite superior in every way and Yuan Shao is still down Yan Liang and Wen Chou.Liu Biao will make no moves and neither will Sun Quan.
It will take longer now but Yuan Shao will have a tough time fighting in the central plains since Cao Cao has the capitals well fortified.A siege will likely fail.So I think Cao will win in the end but it may end up taking more years.

If he's annihilated at Guan Du then Yuan Shao will likely go on to win in the end.A northern power must win,the southern powers cannot fight in the north.Shao will die and be replaced by Shang or Tan and they will throw resources onto their enemies like water onto a fire and eventually carve out a huge section of China.And if internal strife doesn't fracture them they'll probably win.
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Unread postby Sima Hui » Sat May 15, 2004 8:05 pm

Heh, you should have seen the internal mess when Yuan Shao was around. Shen Pei, Pang Ji, Xu You etc Never mind when Tan and Shang were around!

I think Liu Bei would have won. Yuan's indesciveness would have ruined him in the end...
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sat May 15, 2004 10:34 pm

Sima Hui wrote:Heh, you should have seen the internal mess when Yuan Shao was around. Shen Pei, Pang Ji, Xu You etc Never mind when Tan and Shang were around!

I think Liu Bei would have won. Yuan's indesciveness would have ruined him in the end...


Once Yuan Shao kept living there wouldn't be any strife.
While his advisors may compete he still holds the executive power without contest.
Part of the reason Tan and Shang fractured was that the succession was carried out in a complete state of war.They had just lost at Guan Du and were reeling from Cao Cao's onslaught therefore the power grab became even more dangerous than before since they have to contend with Cao also.
While Yuan Shao may be indecisive,the fact is that the other lords of the land are not exactly military geniuses either and so his indecisiveness won't cost him as dearly as it costed him when he went up against a bonafide genius like Cao Cao.
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Unread postby football11f » Sun May 16, 2004 2:33 am

Yuan Shao died of grief from the Battle of Guan Du and if he had won that probuably wouldn't have happened.

I think many of Cao Cao's officers were so loyal to Cao Cao that they wouldn't have served Yuan Shao including the Xiouhu's, Cao Ren, Zhang Lio and Xu Zhu. I think Hua Xiong would have been the only notable one that may have turned.

Sun Quan would have a better chance of winning than Liu Bei. Liu Bei wasn't even a nation until Sun Quan gave him territory with the hope of help against Cao Cao. If Yuan Shao was decisively defeated by Sun Quan then why would Sun Quan have needed Liu Bei?
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sun May 16, 2004 3:17 am

football11f wrote:Yuan Shao died of grief from the Battle of Guan Du and if he had won that probuably wouldn't have happened.

I think many of Cao Cao's officers were so loyal to Cao Cao that they wouldn't have served Yuan Shao including the Xiouhu's, Cao Ren, Zhang Lio and Xu Zhu. I think Hua Xiong would have been the only notable one that may have turned.

Sun Quan would have a better chance of winning than Liu Bei. Liu Bei wasn't even a nation until Sun Quan gave him territory with the hope of help against Cao Cao. If Yuan Shao was decisively defeated by Sun Quan then why would Sun Quan have needed Liu Bei?


Hua Xiong was an officer of Dong Zhuo's,killed in battle with Yuan Shu's forces under Sun Jian.

Also you seem to forget that Wu forces have never beaten a northern army outside of their preferred fighting arena.How are they gonna fight in the north without good cavalry?
Yuan Shao could build boats but you can't breed a mounted force in the south.
Sun Quan could never take the north without help.Note also that with Cao Cao dead,Sun Quan would be stuck facing Liu Biao for Jingzhou,who would have Xuande and co under him.Not to mention that Liu Biao was allied with Yuan Shao in the first place.Can you say Sun-sandwich?
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Unread postby robbyjo » Sun May 16, 2004 4:58 am

If Cao Cao were lost in Guan Du, I would argue that Yuan Shao and Liu Bei would work together to corner Cao Cao. Depending on how grave the lost were, most likely Yuan Shao would have been monopolizing the north east region. Well, that's a hypothetical situation though.
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Unread postby football11f » Sun May 16, 2004 1:34 pm

Hua Xiong was an officer of Dong Zhuo's,killed in battle with Yuan Shu's forces under Sun Jian.


I am sorry, I meant Xu Huang

Also you seem to forget that Wu forces have never beaten a northern army outside of their preferred fighting arena.How are they gonna fight in the north without good cavalry?


Sun Quan had many opportunities to win He Fei and blew them each time. Sun Quan himself was a nincompoo at times.

Yuan Shao could build boats but you can't breed a mounted force in the south.


Ya, Cao Cao built boats too and that worked out well...lol.

Sun Quan could never take the north without help.Note also that with Cao Cao dead,Sun Quan would be stuck facing Liu Biao for Jingzhou,who would have Xuande and co under him.Not to mention that Liu Biao was allied with Yuan Shao in the first place.Can you say Sun-sandwich?


I'm thinking Liu Biao would not have been allied to Yuan Shao after Yuan Shao conquers the north. I mean, you have the entire north subdued and a 500,000 man army ready to attack you. I'm thinking Liu Biao would have allied with Sun Quan to counter Yuan Shao.

While Yuan Shao may be indecisive,the fact is that the other lords of the land are not exactly military geniuses either and so his indecisiveness won't cost him as dearly as it costed him when he went up against a bonafide genius like Cao Cao.


I think that any ruler, if they listened to their advisors like Cao Cao, would be decent military commanders. Cao Cao was indeed very smart, however he wouldn't have gotten far on many occasions without the advice of others. Sun Quan listened to Zhuge Liang and Zou Yu at Chi Bi and look what happened.
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sun May 16, 2004 10:08 pm

Sun Quan had many opportunities to win He Fei and blew them each time. Sun Quan himself was a nincompoo at times.


Thus my point.
If Sun Quan cannot even handle He Fei how is he to take the heavily fortified central plains?

Ya, Cao Cao built boats too and that worked out well...lol.


What has that to do with the epidemic that devastated Cao's forces?
With his ally Liu Biao,Yuan Shao would have a ready and experienced naval force to work with.

I'm thinking Liu Biao would not have been allied to Yuan Shao after Yuan Shao conquers the north. I mean, you have the entire north subdued and a 500,000 man army ready to attack you. I'm thinking Liu Biao would have allied with Sun Quan to counter Yuan Shao.


Why in the world would he do that?
Liu Biao by nature tries to avoid conflict and putting himself in the weaker position.Jing would be the avenue of advance for Yuan Shao if Liu Biao turns so why would he invite a half a million men into Jing when he can just help wipe out Sun Quan and become one of the three Dukes after they win.
Liu Bei allied with Quan because Cao Cao was hunting him.Liu Biao has no such problem as well as no qualms about working with Yuan Shao.
On the other hand,he DID kill Sun Jian and Sun Quan did hit Jiangxia and they've both been at open war with each other for years.

I think that any ruler, if they listened to their advisors like Cao Cao, would be decent military commanders. Cao Cao was indeed very smart, however he wouldn't have gotten far on many occasions without the advice of others. Sun Quan listened to Zhuge Liang and Zou Yu at Chi Bi and look what happened.


The majority of action taken by Wei was Cao Cao's advice.Unlike Sun Quan he didn't need military advice all the time.He was a military genius on par with,and in most cases greater than any other mind of the time.
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