Sun Quan in the north

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Sun Quan in the north

Unread postby Mega Zarak » Fri Mar 19, 2004 5:28 am

I'm not sure if such a scenario has been drawn up before by others. Let's assume that this ficititious scenario took place between 216-218 A.D.

Imagine that Wu and Wei shifted their geographical locations. Hence, Wu (with all her existing commanders of course) would actually be occupying 2/3 of China and of course, Wu would be controlling all the resources up north. Wei (with all her existing commanders) would now be sharing the southern land with Shu. Of course, Sun Quan would now be the "usurper" who manipulate the Han Emperor to validate himself. Cao Cao would then be the self-made man in the south while Liu Bei would still be the historical Liu Bei.

1) In such a scenario, do you think the three kingdoms era would last the same amount of time, longer, or shorter compared to history?

2) Would the Shu-Wei alliance achieve more than the Shu-Wu alliance in history?

3) What would the situation be like at those potential areas of conflicts (e.g. Han Zhong, He Fei)??

4) If given more/less resources, who would shine more brightly and who would fade away? :D
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Re: Sun Quan in the north

Unread postby Kong Wen » Fri Mar 19, 2004 5:39 am

Great Deer wrote:1) In such a scenario, do you think the three kingdoms era would last the same amount of time, or longer, or shorter compared to history?

Loooonger, but as the Two Kingdoms period. I don't think that Wei and Shu would get along as well as Wu and Shu did. Cao Cao would have been far less tolerant of Zhuge Liang's antics than Sun Quan was. Given Cao's shrewdness and penchant for decisive action, I think he would have looked for every opportunity to conquer Shu, and I think he would have been successful. Afterwards, Wei and Wu would face off in a stalemate that would last almost indefinately. Wei would have to have a more experienced navy simply by virtue of their new geographical position, but Wu would still have a good navy because of the skills and experience of her officers.

Great Deer wrote:2) Would the Shu-Wei alliance achieve more than the Shu-Wu alliance in history?

See above.

Great Deer wrote:3) What would the situation be like at those potential areas of conflicts (e.g. Han Zhong, He Fei)??

The most important difference would be that Wei would have absorbed a lot of the Shu generals. Sure, people like Guan Yu, Zhang Fei, and Kongming would probably have been killed, but I am sure Wei Yan and Ma Chao (since his family would have been killed by Sun Quan, if at all) would agree to serve Wei. Jiang Wei would either serve Wu or Wei depending on geography. This would allow Wei to devote a lot of the Shu officers to the Shu areas of interest, like Hanzhong, and to devote her own officers to the defences along the river.

Great Deer wrote:4) If given more/less resources, who would shine more brightly and who would fade away? :D

To be honest, I think Sun Quan would have a much more difficult time with the north because he was naturally focused more on internal affairs and solidifying his own kingdom. In the north, he would have waaay more kingdom to solidify, and this would take him more time and put him under more stress. Cao Cao, being something of an opportunist, would be able to take advantage of his limited resources in the south.

In short, I think it would take Sun Quan longer to bring order to the north, and it would take Cao Cao less time to pacify the south (possibly even including the Shanyue rebellions). This is why I think he would be able to edge in on Shu, and possibly even make inroads into Sun Quan's north.
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Unread postby Six_and_Up » Fri Mar 19, 2004 6:36 am

Ah the main question here is whether or not Shu still has control of Jingzhou when the power shift occurs. Considering that Cao Cao is in control of the south without Jingzhou, then he would not be able to take Jingzhou at all, considering that Guan Yu knowing Cao Cao was in charge would not so easily just move his troops guarding the border with Wu. The alliance would now become one where Cao Cao is forced to ally with Liu Bei. Knowing what generals that Mengde would have it would be interesting to see if he could attack up Hefei successfully and then proceed to take Xuzhou from Wu in the north. The main areas of conflict would not really change but considering that Shu is more cautious at defending their border with Wei and they still have Jingzhou then its a matter of time before the border of Wu and Shu at Jingzhou become a new conflict area as Liu Bei or kongming would try for the Longzhang plan.
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Unread postby Jiang Qin » Fri Mar 19, 2004 8:24 am

If this happen, Wu will be conquering like hell!
Just imagine Lu Meng as Zhang Liao at Hefei, Zhou Tai commanding the forces agains Hanzhong together with Lu Xun and the others.
The Three Kingdoms won't last for so long, thats for sure.

Wu have all the quality and talented officers to control the whle central plains and Sun Ce should take over as Emperor, thats for sure.
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Unread postby boogiepopmeup » Fri Mar 19, 2004 3:48 pm

wei would last wayy longer than wu could ever have hoped, and could have probably beaten wu. the talent in wu and shu ran out long be4 the talent in wei. ya just imagine he fei, zhang liao TAKES it from lu meng hahahah
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sat Mar 20, 2004 12:47 am

1) In such a scenario, do you think the three kingdoms era would last the same amount of time, longer, or shorter compared to history?


I think it would last longer.I think that the Shu-Wei alliance would cut into Wu and end up leaving an all but impossible to break two way power struggle.

2) Would the Shu-Wei alliance achieve more than the Shu-Wu alliance in history?


Absolutely.I think that the respect ZHuge has for Cao Cao would be great and that many of the problems that Shu and Wu had,which came from bad political and military decisions would not happen as Cao Cao would not make the kinds of mistakes Quan did.
Also despite the fact that many consider him very brutal,I think Cao Cao will recognize,at least for the purpose of beating Wu,the value of a Shu-Wei alliance.Howver I think that Cao Cao will be thinking to annex Shu after beating Wu unlike Wu who just wanted to be a separatist state.

3) What would the situation be like at those potential areas of conflicts (e.g. Han Zhong, He Fei)??


Defeats for Wu.At the end of the day,Wu's best are no match for the power of Shu and Wei's best.Without the catastrophic Jingzhou debacle,Shu would still be strong and they could crack through Liangzhou while Wei storms He Fei.

4) If given more/less resources, who would shine more brightly and who would fade away?


Sun Quan would take hella long to control the north.His ShanYue policy for the south says it all,he wanted assimilation,not subservience.While a notable goal,he's going to have his hands full with the Qiang and other steppe tribes.I don't think Wu can force these tribes down as well as Wei did so they could potentially have major northern rebellions.
Despite these greater resources,I don't think it will make too much of a difference for Quan.Despite his major resource advantage over Shu he never did more damage to Wei than they did.
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Unread postby Lu Wei » Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:20 am

You guys are really underestimating Wu I think. People like Lu Kang, Lu Xun, Zhou Yu, etc etc etc, were praised because of their brilliant victories over much larger forces. What do you think would happen had Lu Meng been in control in Liangzhou? Zhou Yu in Xiangyang? Lu Xun at Hefei? Some of the talent of the Central Plains would be going to Wu. Jiang Wei would go to Wu in Liangzhou.


Sun Quan had much larger resources and he was an opportunist. The first to go would be Shu. Lu Meng, Lu Su, Gan Ning, with superior resources, could defeat the often-over-glorified Zhuge Liang. It is likely that Wei will attack Hefei, North Jing, and maybe even try to get Shu before Wu. If Lu Xun is at Hefei, nothing less than complete defeat for Wei. In Jingzhou, if Zhou Yu is in control, I have no doubt he can pull off a succesful defense. In Shu, Yong'an is a veritable fortress. With this failed Wei attack, the inevitable result is the final conquest of the Southlands. Cao Cao, even with his talent, is no match for Zhou Yu and Cheng Pu (as seen at Chibi), let alone with superior resources along with Lu Xun, Lu Meng, Lu Su, or Zhu Ran.
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Unread postby Lu Kang » Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:54 am

Yes people are underestimating Wu a lot. I mean you have to realize that not only do they have many talented commanders who proved themselves time and time again, but they also have the resources that they lacked. First Wei has no good naval commanders so Wu, with its good naval commanders, would have no problem securing a front on the other side of the YangTze and from there Wei would fall.

Exar Kun wrote:Defeats for Wu.At the end of the day,Wu's best are no match for the power of Shu and Wei's best.Without the catastrophic Jingzhou debacle,Shu would still be strong and they could crack through Liangzhou while Wei storms He Fei.


Their best is definately a match for the best of Shu and Wei. In many of their conflicts they have tons of unsung heros. For example in 222 Wei attacked with Zhang Liao. Zhang He, Cao Zhen, Xu Huang, Cao Ren, Zang Ba, Cao Xiu, and more. Wu defended with Zhuge Jin, Pan Zhang, Lu Fan, Zhu Huan, XU Sheng, and I think Zhu Ran. Most people would not name any of those guys if they asked for the best Wu generals. This shows that even Wu's other generals can give a thrashing to Wei even when outnumbered. If they can do this when outnumbered, having mroe resources would be a huge advantage.

Despite these greater resources,I don't think it will make too much of a difference for Quan.Despite his major resource advantage over Shu he never did more damage to Wei than they did.


Not a fair comparison. Shu and Wu were fighting on different front and different places. Neither side once in their final positions made any headway and that should be expected. According to ZZTJ 6 million people lived above the YangTze 1 million in Shu and another 2 million in Wu Provinces. This translates to armies (also recorded) of 600,000, 100,000 and 200,000 respectively. Now this may seem like Wu has a major advantage but they don't These troops have to be spread across the whole YangTze, stationed in the south to deal with the Nanyue, in addition to keeping a Rescue force near Shu from time to time. Shu only had to worry about HanZhong and station troops there. Shu also had less responsiblities to the alliance. A retreating Shu army is going to end up in HanZhong and can easily get home and rally to defend it. A Wu army may return to JiangLing and a major attack can be launched at RuXu with most of Wu's army in Jing. So Wu had more land to defend and was easier to attack from Wei (geographically) so their resource "advatange" only puts them on an equal playing field. Also Wei had so many more troops then both Shu and Wu that neither stood much of a chance in putting a dent in Wei in their own right.
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Unread postby Exar Kun » Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:48 am

Their best is definately a match for the best of Shu and Wei. In many of their conflicts they have tons of unsung heros. For example in 222 Wei attacked with Zhang Liao. Zhang He, Cao Zhen, Xu Huang, Cao Ren, Zang Ba, Cao Xiu, and more. Wu defended with Zhuge Jin, Pan Zhang, Lu Fan, Zhu Huan, XU Sheng, and I think Zhu Ran. Most people would not name any of those guys if they asked for the best Wu generals. This shows that even Wu's other generals can give a thrashing to Wei even when outnumbered. If they can do this when outnumbered, having mroe resources would be a huge advantage.


You mean when Xu Sheng built the wall?
Wu has never shown prowess outside of their preferred realm.When they start getting into big land battles they tend to fail.Look at He Fei.
Wu defended successfully so many times solely due to their highly advanced navy.Can you imagine those southerners leading amoured cavalry?I sure can't.
Wu took every opportunity possible to shy away from open conflict,even when the advantage is theirs.

Not a fair comparison. Shu and Wu were fighting on different front and different places. Neither side once in their final positions made any headway and that should be expected. According to ZZTJ 6 million people lived above the YangTze 1 million in Shu and another 2 million in Wu Provinces. This translates to armies (also recorded) of 600,000, 100,000 and 200,000 respectively. Now this may seem like Wu has a major advantage but they don't These troops have to be spread across the whole YangTze, stationed in the south to deal with the Nanyue, in addition to keeping a Rescue force near Shu from time to time. Shu only had to worry about HanZhong and station troops there. Shu also had less responsiblities to the alliance. A retreating Shu army is going to end up in HanZhong and can easily get home and rally to defend it. A Wu army may return to JiangLing and a major attack can be launched at RuXu with most of Wu's army in Jing. So Wu had more land to defend and was easier to attack from Wei (geographically) so their resource "advatange" only puts them on an equal playing field. Also Wei had so many more troops then both Shu and Wu that neither stood much of a chance in putting a dent in Wei in their own right.


Did Shu not have to woory about the Mangs,the Di,the Qiang?
Rescue force?What an odd term eh?We both know that the forces at Baidi and Baqiu were there for defense against aggression and for seizing ally territory if the opportunity arose.
Even if we allow that Wu is on en even playing field,then againwe see their lack in terms of both spirit and in accomplishments.If they are on this even playing field and they can't do as well as Shu,obviously they are less than Shu is.
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Unread postby Kong Wen » Sat Mar 20, 2004 6:41 am

Lu Kang wrote:First Wei has no good naval commanders so Wu, with its good naval commanders, would have no problem securing a front on the other side of the YangTze and from there Wei would fall.

Shouldn't we assume that Wei would have good naval officers if they were based in the south? After all, the people don't just come with preset talents--they get them by experience. If Cao Cao's generals had been in the south all along and had more experience with naval combat, I think they would be adequately prepared for battle with Wu on the rivers.
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