Pang De, Yu Jin and Guan Yu.

[Separation Anxiety]

Say Yu Jin was not worried that Pang De would ellipse his reputation by killing Guan Yu and did not ring the gong so Pang could not finish off Guan after he was hit with the arrow. What do think would happen.

I think that Guan would have surely been killed and Jingzhou overrun by Wei. Then, since Wu had not helped, Wei would have kept Jingzhou. Pang De would be elevated to a very high generalship, up there with Zhang Liao and Xu Huang. Yu Jin would have also been promoted though not to the extent of Pang. Now Wu would try to get Jingzhou back as would Shu, and there would be a three way struggle for Jingzhou. Shu and Wu would not ally because of their own greed for the land. Wei would come out victorious because Wu's attack was fueled by greed and Shu's attack would be fueled by an overwhelming hatred and want for revenge for the death of Guan.

[Lu Wei]

In history, this never happened. Novel-wise, your logic is still faulty.

Lu Meng had invaded Jingzhou anyways, as most of Jing was still in Shu hands. There would probably be a showdown around Jiang Ling between Wu and Wei. Whoever won would probably be the object of a revenging army from Shu. If Wu won, Liu Bei would not be blinded by revenge (because it was not Wu that killed Guan Yu) and he may have defeated Wu and retaken Jingzhou. If Wei had Jingzhou, then the outcome is still in question because Xu Huang, Pang De, or Yu Jin did not have the talent or experience with fire attacks Lu Xun had.

[Koichi]

In history, this never happened. Novel-wise, your logic is still faulty.

Lu Meng had invaded Jingzhou anyways, as most of Jing was still in Shu hands. There would probably be a showdown around Jiang Ling between Wu and Wei. Whoever won would probably be the object of a revenging army from Shu. If Wu won, Liu Bei would not be blinded by revenge (because it was not Wu that killed Guan Yu) and he may have defeated Wu and retaken Jingzhou. If Wei had Jingzhou, then the outcome is still in question because Xu Huang, Pang De, or Yu Jin did not have the talent or experience with fire attacks Lu Xun had.

I was under the impression Lu Xun didn't have much experience at all hence the lack of trust the Wu officers had for him.

Now if Wei forces occupied Jingzhou...

Zhuge Liang believed Cao Cao was the rebel to the Han and his campaign aimed at eliminating him rather than Sun Quan. If Cao Cao instead of Sun Quan occupied Jingzhou, I wouldn't be surprised if Zhuge Liang personally led the Shu army to clear the Wei forces. We could have a repeat of the Hanzhong campaign, this time the Shu forces would be in control of the province.

[Lu Wei]

You are right Koichi, my mistake. I was referring to Lu Xun's obvious skill.

[Separation Anxiety]

In history, this never happened. Novel-wise, your logic is still faulty.

Lu Meng had invaded Jingzhou anyways, as most of Jing was still in Shu hands. There would probably be a showdown around Jiang Ling between Wu and Wei. Whoever won would probably be the object of a revenging army from Shu. If Wu won, Liu Bei would not be blinded by revenge (because it was not Wu that killed Guan Yu) and he may have defeated Wu and retaken Jingzhou. If Wei had Jingzhou, then the outcome is still in question because Xu Huang, Pang De, or Yu Jin did not have the talent or experience with fire attacks Lu Xun had.

In this thread it is novel based. Also Wu had not invaded Jingzhou until after Pang De died, and this is a theoretical thread. So that is why I said that Wei would get control of Jingzhou.

[Lu Wei]

Actually, Ive rethought it. Guan Ping would take control, the flood would destroy Yu Jin's forces, and the exact same history would take place. That was easy.

[Separation Anxiety]

But you leave out the tiny bit about Guan Yu potentially not being there. If Jin did not recall Pang then Guan Yu MAY have been killed, its not 100% chance of his death. Also Guan Ping might not have had that much success as his fathers death would be fresh in his mind and may have clouded his judgement. Also Pang De may have ridden the success of the killing of Guan and destroyed the Jingzhou troops.

[Lu Wei]

You seem to have forgot. Guan Ping just has to hold for one day before the flood wipes out Yu Jin's force.

[Separation Anxiety]

Also it was Guan Yu that set up the dams, not Guan Ping. And he did not tell Ping about the dams until just before the battle. So how would the flood have worked. Also if Guan Yu had just been killed then Wei would have pressed the advantage and probably pushed back the severely demoralized Jingzhou troops. They just lost their leader, they probably are a little disheartened.

[LordZhaoYunTheGreat]

Also it was Guan Yu that set up the dams, not Guan Ping. And he did not tell Ping about the dams until just before the battle. So how would the flood have worked. Also if Guan Yu had just been killed then Wei would have pressed the advantage and probably pushed back the severely demoralized Jingzhou troops. They just lost their leader, they probably are a little disheartened.

i agree with u 100%