The "What If" Thread

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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Zyzyfer » Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:59 am

greencactaur wrote:What if cao cao was never around, how do you guys think things could've panned out?


That's a mighty big what if haha

- Coalition: Little impact, if any. Dong Zhuo stuff probably plays out mostly the same way.
- Yan: Based on who else held power there, maybe Zhang Miao or Liu Dai secures it? Zhang Miao is more likely, and would bring more stability to the region.
- Emperor Xian: Could have a huge influence on the final days of Han, the Emperor was stranded when Cao Cao came around so if he remained stranded several more years, it will probably kill all credibility for him. That said, by this point, few warlords genuinely cared about restoring Han, and did not at the time need the emperor to secure their immediate political goals.
- Yuan Shao: He steamrolls whoever runs Yan upon securing the north.

So thus far, it's had little impact. But then you have to look at the fact that Yuan Shao passed away not long after, and consider whether his failing health was due to his loss at Guandu, or was simply inevitable.

- If he dies in 202: Possibly secures Xu and Yan beforehand. Then you have to consider whether his growing power and failing health convince him to appoint an heir in a timely fashion. If he does, maybe there is still some infighting, but maybe it can be overcome. Yuan Tan wasn't very able in the political sphere however, so I don't know how much farther the Yuan clan can go.

- If he lives longer: He will probably do quite well in such a scenario, securing Xu, Yan, the capital, pushing out west. It would look similar to what Cao Cao achieved, although rockier. Beyond that, I can't really imagine.

Related, this is a huge question but I've always wondered, if Cao Cao, Sun Jian, and Liu Bei never existed, how do things play out? I think the Cao side is pretty straightforward, Yuan Shao consolidates a fair amount before his death, followed by big question marks based on the succession issue.

I've discussed it elsewhere on the board before, but the basics that came up were:

- Yuan Shao blobs and dies and his sons fight over the succession, Yuan Shang wins probably (more backers)
- Yuan Shu takes over Jiangdong, declares himself emperor probably, but no one can take out him in response
- Liu Biao blobs Jing, dies, split between sons, they fight
- Nothing of note out west
- Big question marks over Central Plains

That carries things roughly up to about 210, after that who knows?
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Lord_Cao_Cao » Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:56 am

Who's to say that Bo Cai wouldn't manage kill Huangfu Song or Zhu Jun somehow had Cao Cao not arrived with reinforcements? Or what if Jian Shuo's executed uncle had some sort of impact if Cao Cao didn't execute him? Or the Three Excellencies that were dismissed due to Cao Cao's memorial? What if some sort of huge menace had emerged in Ji'nan if Cao Cao hadn't brought order back into the area after defeating Peng Tuo? :mrgreen:

You can't really answer these types of questions properly in my opinion. There's too much to be considered.
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Zyzyfer » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 am

Lord_Cao_Cao wrote:Who's to say that Bo Cai wouldn't manage kill Huangfu Song or Zhu Jun somehow had Cao Cao not arrived with reinforcements? Or what if Jian Shuo's executed uncle had some sort of impact if Cao Cao didn't execute him? Or the Three Excellencies that were dismissed due to Cao Cao's memorial? What if some sort of huge menace had emerged in Ji'nan if Cao Cao hadn't brought order back into the area after defeating Peng Tuo? :mrgreen:

You can't really answer these types of questions properly in my opinion. There's too much to be considered.


Yeah that's all true and fair, and a number of the what if questions that get posted on here get hit by the butterfly effect - i.e., if Bo Cao kills Zhu Jun then the Yellow Turbans win, and then A, and then B, and then C, and suddenly we are all speaking Chinese today. And totally eliminating someone so influential is a doozy, we might as well be talking about an entirely alternate reality where red is blue and down is up.

Having said that, it's kind of a bummer of an answer, and by working with generalities (such as the subdued long-term impact of the various YT/rebel remnants, Han's fading power, Yuan Shao's thirst for power), we can at least carve out a sort of simplistic outline, yeah?

Aside for greencactaur: This is an old thread about how Cao Cao's absence would impact things. Might be worth a look for you.
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Sun Fin » Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:45 am

Also without Cao Cao covering Yuan Shao's rear Yuan Shu and allies might well make more progress against Yuan Shao...

DragonAtma wrote:...sometime we should make a list of who was on which side for which times in the Yuan Shao vs Yuan Shu war, including the minor forces.


Yes please. :D
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Lord_Cao_Cao » Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:05 am

Zyzyfer wrote:
Lord_Cao_Cao wrote:Who's to say that Bo Cai wouldn't manage kill Huangfu Song or Zhu Jun somehow had Cao Cao not arrived with reinforcements? Or what if Jian Shuo's executed uncle had some sort of impact if Cao Cao didn't execute him? Or the Three Excellencies that were dismissed due to Cao Cao's memorial? What if some sort of huge menace had emerged in Ji'nan if Cao Cao hadn't brought order back into the area after defeating Peng Tuo? :mrgreen:

You can't really answer these types of questions properly in my opinion. There's too much to be considered.


Yeah that's all true and fair, and a number of the what if questions that get posted on here get hit by the butterfly effect - i.e., if Bo Cao kills Zhu Jun then the Yellow Turbans win, and then A, and then B, and then C, and suddenly we are all speaking Chinese today. And totally eliminating someone so influential is a doozy, we might as well be talking about an entirely alternate reality where red is blue and down is up.

Having said that, it's kind of a bummer of an answer, and by working with generalities (such as the subdued long-term impact of the various YT/rebel remnants, Han's fading power, Yuan Shao's thirst for power), we can at least carve out a sort of simplistic outline, yeah?

Aside for greencactaur: This is an old thread about how Cao Cao's absence would impact things. Might be worth a look for you.

Sums it up pretty much. It's easier to work with "What if X/Y died at this or that point" than "What if X/Y didn't exist at all" as well.

Wasn't there some sort of project with a lot of other people for RoTK XI with the three main rulers and their offspring not existing? A shame nothing came out of it in the end. :lol:
EDIT: Ah found it, it was your idea after all, good times. :D
viewtopic.php?p=570581#p570581
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Zyzyfer » Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:17 am

Lord_Cao_Cao wrote:Wasn't there some sort of project with a lot of other people for RoTK XI with the three main rulers and their offspring not existing? A shame nothing came out of it in the end. :lol:
EDIT: Ah found it, it was your idea after all, good times. :D
viewtopic.php?p=570581#p570581


Yup, busted.

Amazing that that discussion took place four years ago. I'm not usually one to question where the time went, but I will in this case. That topic seemed much more recent, and also went much more in-depth than I remembered. Maybe I'll revisit the concept if XIII fails to draw in the remaining XI players...

edit: I actually recall that I considered asking the question here, but was reluctant to do so because of this sub-forum's purpose.
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby greencactaur » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:26 am

What if Lu Bu never betrayed Liu Bei, and ended up a loyal general under him? I know this would NEVER happen, but what do you guys think would happen in this hypothetical situation? :shock: :shock:
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby Guan Gong » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:50 am

greencactaur wrote:What if Lu Bu never betrayed Liu Bei, and ended up a loyal general under him? I know this would NEVER happen, but what do you guys think would happen in this hypothetical situation? :shock: :shock:


That, for me, creates a minimum of two hypothetical situations.

1. Lu Bu ends up a general, loyal at first, but then his old habits rear themselves and he betrays Liu Bei at some point. Depending on where Liu Bei is, territory-wise, what manner of chaos does this create?
2. Lu Bu ends up a general under Liu Bei, and remains loyal. How much does having him aid/hinder Liu Bei's cause.

Greencactaur, apologies if it seems like I've hijacked your questions, they just created these thoughts in my head.
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby greencactaur » Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:38 pm

No worries, those are the type of responses I want :P. Hypothetical situations, and what could happen really interest me.
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Re: The "What If" Thread

Unread postby plunged » Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:44 am

What if He Jin had somehow survived the eunuch's assassination? Surely they would've all been executed afterwards, and Lady He and He Miao would not be on their side anymore, so the He's would be one clan again, with Shao in the throne. Also Yuan Shao was already a powerful ally of him, but I don't know how reliable their relationship was
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