What if Cao Cao died during Guandu?

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What if Cao Cao died during Guandu?

Unread postby Sima Hui » Sun Dec 28, 2003 1:55 am

I was just wondering what would have happened if Cao Cao was killed at Guandu? What do you think?
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Unread postby Asellas » Sun Dec 28, 2003 2:28 am

Sima Hui wrote:I was just wondering what would have happened if Cao Cao was killed at Guandu? What do you think?



I think it still wouldn't neccesarily be the end of Wei myself, even if Mengde was gone Yuan Shao wouldn't have had much of an easier ride because the strategists at Guan Du were Xun Yu and possibly Guo Jia now, Yuan Shao didn't have his strategists because he had one put in prison, one killed and one just ignored and he thought he knew best.

Even though it was mengde's doing to attack the Supply Depot at Wuchao and say he died before making the command or coming up with the idea I still think someone like Cao Pi would think to attack the supply depot which would still give like it did an advantageous position for Wei because even though Yuan Shao had 3x times more of an army than Cao, Yuan's army would lose stamina, ability to fight, strength etc etc... because not enough supplies could be issued to all the men so Wei would have anihalated them all.
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Unread postby Kevin » Sun Dec 28, 2003 3:05 am

Well, this is a novice opinion, but I think that, first Wu would try to get more land to prepare a defence, and try take the land of Shu. While taking land, Yuan Shao would interfere and save Liu Biao and Liu Zhang. (of course Shu-Han, the one we know would never exist because Liu Bei and Zhang Fei would die with Cao Cao (sooner or later) Yuan Shao would, as Cao Cao said in DW4, "swallow the North whole." Then he would kill the Sun family and unite China under the "Yuan" dynasty.
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Unread postby Sima Hui » Sun Dec 28, 2003 3:19 am

themastaofdw4 wrote:Well, this is a novice opinion, but I think that, first Wu would try to get more land to prepare a defence, and try take the land of Shu. While taking land, Yuan Shao would interfere and save Liu Biao and Liu Zhang. (of course Shu-Han, the one we know would never exist because Liu Bei and Zhang Fei would die with Cao Cao (sooner or later) Yuan Shao would, as Cao Cao said in DW4, "swallow the North whole." Then he would kill the Sun family and unite China under the "Yuan" dynasty.


Good point but I think Liu Bei would resist against the "Yuan Dynasty" in favour of the Han.
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Unread postby Man Chong » Sun Dec 28, 2003 3:45 am

I think the following wou happen:

1. Cao Cao's force would probably still hold together. Cao Pi was alive and old enought to rule, so most Cao officers would stick together around Cao pi.

2. With Cao Cao dead, most likely Cao Pi would want to conclude a peace treaty to mourn for his day (Much like when Sun Jain died)

3.Yuan Shao, being the senile old idiot he is, will accept the peace offer (like Liu Biao)

4.Cao Pi would now consolidate his rule in Wei, with the help of Cao's old officers. (Like Xun Yu/Cheng Yu)

5.I doubt Cao Pi would let go of Guan Yu. Cao Pi unlike Cao Cao did not admire him. But I would think that Guan Yu would be able to escape somehow...

6.While Yuan and Cao are fighting, Liu would escape with Guan to Ru Nan where Zhang is. There, he would gather followers and power. Back in the north, I doubt Cao Pi could get any advantage

7.liu Biao would soon die, leaving Jing open for Liu Bei to take. Sun Quan and liu Bei would get into a fight over Jing.

8.Yuan Shao would die of old age, and Yuan Shang would take over. While Tan and Shang fight, Cao Pi would take over.

9.Liu Bei would take over Jing, because that he is "related" to Liu Biao. Now I'm thinking in Jing, Pang Tong/Xu Shu would join Liu Bei, LIu Bei may be able to take Yi from Liu Zhang....Ma Teng of Liang would also joing Liu Bei also because they were friends once...

Now "three Kingdom" situation would again occur, With Liu Bei holding Jing/Lian/Yi, and Sun Quan holding Yang, and with Cao Pi with teh rest.

10.Liu Bei would take over, with Liu Biao/Ma Teng's officers and armies. Liu Biao's navy can be put to use against Sun Quan, and the Liang cavalry can mount an offense against the central plains. Soon, with Sun Quan subdued and the central plains conquered, Liu Bei would rule supreme.

:)
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Unread postby K'ung-Ming » Sun Dec 28, 2003 5:22 am

I'm not really sure what would happen, but Man Chong's theory sounds plausible. :)
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Unread postby EERman » Sun Dec 28, 2003 8:53 pm

yeah man chong's idea seems like a good one, because i doubt cao pi would be able to beat yuan shao.
i don't think cao pi would be able to think of something like destroying the supply depo, and i don't think he would rule as well as cao cao.
also liu bei would have xu shu with him when he starts his kingdom.
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Unread postby Sima Hui » Sun Dec 28, 2003 9:01 pm

I think Man Chong is correct with his deep thinking of the situation. That is probably what would happen.

I reckon Liu Bei would attack Wu though and then Jing and Yi. Then there would be two kingdoms; Yuan and Han. With Kongming on Liu Bei's side and Yuan Shao's indecsiveness, Liu Bei would restore the Han and the Three Kingdoms would be known as the Two Kingdoms.
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Unread postby PangDeGuy » Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:14 pm

What I think:

Yuan Shao would've swept towards Xuchang (Guandu was the pathway to Xuchang) and would've laid siege there. Because Cao Cao had many able advisors, and like Man Chong said, his son was old enough to command, Yuan Shao would've been defeated. Two reasons for his defeat-
1. Yuan Shao's best advisors were either dead or were arrested.
2. Yuan Shao was undecisive, even though he made many plans.

Afterwards, Cao Pi would've prepared a time for mourning for his father and funeral, and then start a northern expedition to subdue Yuan Shao and succeed, and then calm the populace and have a time of peace.
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Unread postby Marc » Mon Dec 29, 2003 10:46 pm

Yay, another 'what if' question! If Cao Cao had died during Guandu, I think that the majority of the Wei force would have either surrendered or retreated back to the castle for a siege. If they went to the castle, I think that they would have surrendered eventually.
You see, is Cao Cao was killed, then there is a good chance that Yuan Shao's supply depot would not have been destroyed, so he would have been well prepared for a siege.

Afterwards, I think that Shu and Wu would probably ally with each other against an obvious threat and manage to defeat Yuan Shao through stratefy and good planning rather than strength.
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