What if Yuan Shao had actually beaten Cao Cao?

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What if Yuan Shao had actually beaten Cao Cao?

Unread postby Ma Chao fan » Wed Feb 05, 2003 7:44 pm

I mean,he could have beaten him,Cao Cao said so himself in the novel(im basing this off the novel by the way).How much would this have changed history since Yuan Shao didn't listen to his advisors most of the time?I think the Sun clan would have ended up uniting China instead of the Cao/Sima.What are your thoughts?
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Unread postby CK » Wed Feb 05, 2003 7:53 pm

My thoughts is that had Yuan Shao really won the fight against Cao Cao, his sons cannot hold the empire simply because they will quarrel as well. It would be fun therefore to hypothesize how successful Liu Bei would be in usurping Yuan Shao's territories. :shock:
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Unread postby Gan Ning 27 » Wed Feb 05, 2003 7:56 pm

Eh, Yuan Shao wins, controls the North, becomes ambitious, attacks Wu, is beaten by Liu Bei and Sun Quan more horribly than Cao Cao was, dies of shame, sons fight, Wu and Shu split the North, war between Wu and Shu.
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Unread postby Wen Yang » Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:01 pm

If Yuan Shao won, Yuan Shu would feel he was a threat and still declare himself emperor and Yuan Shu and Yuan Shao would fight for control, while Liu Bei and Sun Ce gain power in the south.
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Unread postby rcsha » Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:16 pm

Wen Yang wrote:If Yuan Shao won, Yuan Shu would feel he was a threat and still declare himself emperor and Yuan Shu and Yuan Shao would fight for control, while Liu Bei and Sun Ce gain power in the south.


Hmm, I disagree with that view. Yuan Shu was moving north to join his brother Shao when he declared himself Emperor.

In my optimistic opinion I can see it going something like this:
Yuan Shao defeats Cao Cao and gains control of the North. Liu Bei would easily join him, since they were on good terms and each supported the Han (or so they said, lol).
Liu Be wasn't much at that time so he really wouldn't make much of a difference as an ally. Yuan Shu would join him and give him the seal. Liu Biao would also join with Yuan Shao as an ally...Ma Teng might, too. So the Sun Clan wouldn't stand much of a chance. Liu Zhang would crumble like a dradle in a hurricane. Liu Biao would have died by this time, so he would have given over his lands to Yuan Shao. And even if he didn't, do you really think Yuan Shao wouldn't have been able to take them?

Unfortunately I believe that after Yuan Shao died, unless he pacifide his sons, an internal strife would have developed. Yuan Shao's Empire, now containing Jiangzhou, Jingzhou, and Xuzhou as well as everything east of Chang An and possibly Yizhou, would have been split between his heirs.

<Shrugs>Ma Teng probably would have taken over then, lol.
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Unread postby Tianshan Zi » Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:44 pm

If Yuan Shao would have beaten Cao Cao, many possibilities would have existed. But, hey, here's my take...

Yuan Shao defeats and executes Cao Cao, thus fulfilling the emperor's decree and negating any valid reason for Liu Bei to establish an independent power. Yuan Shao, actually a better politician than the novel gives him credit for, consolidates the Han power base, takes the Southland to task for its expansions, and likely grants the Southland additional powers and a respectable measure of autonomy (much as the Riverlands had enjoyed during the Late Han) but definitely brings the Southland under the sway of the Han.

That's a high level and very general description of what I think might have happened. :wink:
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Unread postby DarkAnthem » Wed Feb 05, 2003 9:48 pm

It would sort of depend on in what scenario Yuan Shao beaten Cao Cao. If Yuan Shao won at the battle of Guan Du, Yuan Shu was dead by then, so he wouldn't be a factor, and Liu Bei will most likely not rejoin Yuan Shao since he was originally under Yuan Shao and left; he left before Yuan Shao's decisive battle at Guan Du against Cao Cao, but he was still there when the war between Yuan Shao and Cao Cao started. If Yuan Shao defeated Cao Cao then, he would most likely take Cao Cao's place and unite most of northern China.

It's hard to say what would happen afterwards; the emperor would most likely be under his control if he defeated Cao Cao. Everything will be under Yuan Shao's control and not the emperors, since Yuan Shao was the one conquering all the land, and all the generals and officers would be supporting Yuan Shao instead of the emperor, most likely the emperor would not be too happy under Yuan Shao (since he has no power and not many loyal supporters), unless Yuan Shao willingly gave all his power to the emperor. Yuan Shao was somewhat power hungry himself, seeing how he took Ji Zhou from Han Fu and defeated Gongsun Zan for his land. If he managed to take all the northern lands, it's unlikely that he would give up all his power for the emperor. Thus he would still most likely be considered as a traitor to Han (for not giving his powers to the emperor), and wouldn't be in very good terms with Liu Bei and other warlords.

If in the battle of Chi Bi, Yuan Shao attacked instead of Cao Cao, it would still be likely that half of Yuan's troops will get sick like what happened to Cao Cao's, but the end result will depend on how Yuan Shao handles the situation, I would think he might just retreat after too many troops are sick instead of chaining the ships together, but regardless, he wouldn't have conquered Wu. Whether or not he succeeds later on will most likely depend on his luck, since he's quite indecisive and often rejects reasonable advices. After his death, his sons might still querrel over the throne and divide his kingdom up, and at the end his kingdom will most likely crumble and fall to Shu or Wu.
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Unread postby Ma Chao fan » Thu Feb 06, 2003 6:04 am

I just wanna put my insight since I made the topic right before school ended.

I say the Sun clan would overcome since Yuan Shao was very indecisive and his advisors quarreled with each other,which would bring his territory into a civil disaster.One thing though,is many of Cao Cao's generals(that is,if they weren't executed) I think would go to Liu Bei,especially Zhang Liao and Xu Huang since they were friends with Guan Yu.But Guan Yu might not even be alive anymore.There are just so many factors mainly depending on who's still alive and who isn't.

But the reason I feel the Sun clan would win is since they had control of Wu by then,they would keep expanding their territory in the south,especially Jingzhou since I think Sun Quan will want revenge on Liu Biao for the death of Sun Jian(if I remember correctly,that is,he died fighting Liu Biao and Yuan Shu).The only problem is,Sun Quan would always wait for oppurtunities instead of taking them,but maybe with Zhou Yu still alive,he would advise him to take more chances.But then again,Zhuge Liang might join the Sun's due to Zhuge Jin being with them.I just think that the chances for the Sun family uniting China is more than any other warlord of the time.
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Unread postby Shadowlink » Thu Feb 06, 2003 8:08 pm

Ma Chao fan wrote:I just wanna put my insight since I made the topic right before school ended.

I say the Sun clan would overcome since Yuan Shao was very indecisive and his advisors quarreled with each other,which would bring his territory into a civil disaster.One thing though,is many of Cao Cao's generals(that is,if they weren't executed) I think would go to Liu Bei,especially Zhang Liao and Xu Huang since they were friends with Guan Yu.But Guan Yu might not even be alive anymore.There are just so many factors mainly depending on who's still alive and who isn't.

But the reason I feel the Sun clan would win is since they had control of Wu by then,they would keep expanding their territory in the south,especially Jingzhou since I think Sun Quan will want revenge on Liu Biao for the death of Sun Jian(if I remember correctly,that is,he died fighting Liu Biao and Yuan Shu).The only problem is,Sun Quan would always wait for oppurtunities instead of taking them,but maybe with Zhou Yu still alive,he would advise him to take more chances.But then again,Zhuge Liang might join the Sun's due to Zhuge Jin being with them.I just think that the chances for the Sun family uniting China is more than any other warlord of the time.
Yeah that is true but Ma Teng will not died and Ma chao do not need to run away. Yuan Shao have a very large army. If Sima Yi goes to Yuan Shao u think the same thing will happen i mean Yuan Shao do listen to people who is close to him.
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Unread postby DarkAnthem » Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:02 pm

Zhugeliang wrote:Yeah that is true but Ma Teng will not died and Ma chao do not need to run away. Yuan Shao have a very large army. If Sima Yi goes to Yuan Shao u think the same thing will happen i mean Yuan Shao do listen to people who is close to him.


Actually, evidently Yuan Shao doesn’t listen to people close to him.

After Dong Zhou died, Guo Tu advised Yuan Shao to receive the Han emperor, but Yuan Shao objected to the idea, not much later, Cao Cao received the emperor instead, in other words, Yuan Shao had a chance to receive the emperor but he didn’t. And Yuan Shao regretted objecting to Guo Tu's advice afterwards and tried to tell Cao Cao to give him the emperor, and of course Cao Cao said no :lol:.

Later on when Cao Cao sent Liu Bei to attack Yuan Shu, Yuan Shao sent Yan Liang to attack Liu Yan. Ju Shou pointed out to Yuan Shao that Yan Liang had a hot temper and probably wasn’t fit for the tasks on his own, so it was better to sent someone to go with him. Again, Yuan Shao rejected the advise, and in result Cao Cao reinforced Liu Yan and Yan Liang was killed.

In the battle of Guan Du, Cao Cao ambushed Yuan Shao’s food supplies troops and burnt their supplies. In result, Yuan Shao’s camp was short of food supplies, so Yuan Shao sent Chun Yuqiong to secure the supply train from north. Ju Shou advised Yuan Shao to send Jiang Qi as reinforcement for Chun Yuqiong, again, Yuan Shao rejected the advise, and Chun Yuqiong failed to secure the supply train and Yuan Shao lost the war at Guan Du.

After the lost at Guan Du, Yuan Shao wanted to try and recapture his land by attacking Cao Cao. Tian Feng was against the idea, however Yuan Shao imprisoned Tian Feng and attacked anyway, and he lost of course. After he came back, he executed Tian Feng, even though Tian Feng was the one who advised him not to go.

So I wouldn think, if Sima Yi does go to Yuan Shao, his advises, no matter how good they are, would be rejected by Yuan Shao.
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