Could Zhang Jiao have been successful?

[Asellas]

I was just wondreing if Zhang Jiao did beat He Jin and if he did would he have survived in the conflict between Wu,Shu and Wei.

I don't think so but you may think different.

[Tianshan Zi]

No, I don't think that he could have been successful, even if he had survived or defeated He Jin. None of the other nobles would have allowed such a threatening variable to remain for very long.

[Wen Choung]

I don't think so either. I don't think peasant uprisings ever succeed. There may be a few cases that I do not know, but if that's the case, then the chances I'd say are low.

Especially in the time of ancient China where soldiers blindly follow their lord. I've always wondered, if conditions are so bad, why don't the armies turn on their lord or emperor? I never truly understood that, but I suppose it was that era's culture.

Plus the people were not trained and equipped properly. Didn't SGYY say they carried farm tools and such? Thus the end result would be Zhang Jiao fails.

[Cao Ren]

He could have been successful in a li jue situation. He may have be able to smash the han, but there would be too many warlords looking for vengeance and power. He would not be able to handle these along with tribes bordering him. I think he would be killed in a short time. His brothers wouldn't be able to recover if he were to die.

[Mengdez New Book]

Most probably not, they didn't really have any experience in governing an Empire. Also, they rise up because of the difficulties they were facing under Han Dynasty, with this, they didn't really have a good Agenda to support them until buidling a great Empire like Han.

[Han Xin]

NO.... Zhang Jiao's troops mainly made up of peasants and even if their number were great, there no chance that they could beat the government troops.

[Alucard]

governement troops were trained. peasent werent. its kinda like saying a master swordsmen fighting a novice swordsmen. one slash and on the ground.

[Lady Wu]

I think MNB has a good point. Zhang Jiao's agenda consists of "overthrowing Han", but after that, nothing. His skill of organising people was amazing, as it was not simple to get so many people all over the place to rise in rebellion and strike such a blow to the current infrastructure. They even had a few victories over the government troops earlier on.

Though most of the government troops were no more than recruited peasants given swords, and Zhang Jiao's people were fuelled by passion, there was no way the Yellow Turbans could have won. They lacked a political agenda, and did not secure enough support with those with power/money/education. Though they had bribed one of the top eunuchs (I forget who), he turned double-crosser to them and betrayed their uprising date.

Even if they could overcome the government troops, internal struggle will arise, and like others have said, other warlords with more power/money/intelligence will come and crush them.

[CK]

The original intentions of the uprising may be pure but I for one am skeptical about how centrally organised the rebellion was. There was no doubt that they were all followers of Zhang Jiao but I would see it more as a dynamo effect than a planned uprising in the different parts of China. (Of course, please correct me if I am wrong for I am not backed by historical evidence, just mere conjectures)

Certainly, the yellow turban rebellion had failed but at its peak, it is certain that a group of peasants and taoists would be at a loss of what to do with the lands they gained etc which Lady Wu and Guang Rong rightly pointed out. The implication however is that as such an organization grew in power, corruption would also seep into its structure and since the rebellion was in certain ways opportunistic, I would say that internal strife and corruption would bring the "heavenly kingdom" down too.

Just to add on something about the yellow turban though not directly connected with this particular topic, this rebellion must be significant. There is no doubt that it was doomed for failure. Nevertheless, its the first mass-organized resistance/uprising against feudalism and that alone is a truly revolutionary thing as future generations would view it as an example, or even counter-example.

[GuangRong]

Though, the yellow turban rebelion is wide-spread, alot are are just bandits or oppounist trying to ride on the influence of the movement..

apart from Zhang Jiao's own troops, the various groups were'nt really under the their command, though they stand unnder the same banner..

Contast that to the Tai Ping Rebelion, which is a Planned and very well Organized

Religion is the best rallying cry, Its the languge the pesants and illitrate common people will understand..

All uprising since the times of Chen Shen And Wu Guang always involved some of "divine" intervention