If Liu Biao did not die

[Mega Zarak]

Shortly after Cao Cao launched a southern expedition at Jing province, Liu Biao passed away. What happened if he had lived on and put up a resistance against Cao Cao's southern expedition?

Would Liu Biao be able to hold off Cao Cao's 200,000+ soldiers with some 100,000 soldiers of his own? Xiang Yang, the city of Fan and Jiang Ling all appeared to be sturdy cities (historically, attackers had a hard time when they laid siege to these cities). With Liu Bei, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei under his command (not forgetting Zhao Yun), could Liu Biao defeat Cao Cao and change the course of history in favor for the Lius?? What possible roles would Sun Quan and Liu Zhang take then??

[Han Xin]

Obviously Liu Biao was pretty old (I think he was in his 70) when he did die and I don't think he is another Chong Er that could built a great nation in his 70. However, from SGZ it seem that Liu Bei was very confident of holding off Cao Cao's southward advance before he realised that Liu Zong had surrender. Liu Zong's surrender had virtually kills any really attempts by Liu Bei to effectively defend northern Jing. Cao Cao's troops were already worn out so even if Cao Cao's outnumberred his enemy by about 3 to 1, he could not really guarantee victory if Jing had not surrender, no matter how great a millitary genius he is.

So the true question is what if Liu Zong had not surreder? If Liu Zong had not surrender, Jing would definately not be lost (may be some small cities in the north) and Liu Bei woud definately have a stronger base to start. However, I still feel that he (Liu Bei) would end up killing Liu Biao's family anyhow...

[Mega Zarak]

Obviously Liu Biao was pretty old (I think he was in his 70) when he did die and I don't think he is another Chong Er that could built a great nation in his 70.

I said assuming Liu Biao could live on. He died during when Cao Cao invaded. Let's just say he lived on for another year or so. Don't need to be like Chong Er or Bai Lixi.

However, from SGZ it seem that Liu Bei was very confident of holding off Cao Cao's southward advance before he realised that Liu Zong had surrender. Liu Zong's surrender had virtually kills any really attempts by Liu Bei to effectively defend northern Jing. Cao Cao's troops were already worn out so even if Cao Cao's outnumberred his enemy by about 3 to 1, he could not really guarantee victory if Jing had not surrender, no matter how great a millitary genius he is.

I agree to the statement that victory for Cao Cao could not be guaranteed. This is especially so when Jing province had capable generals like Kuai Yue and Wen Pin.

So the true question is what if Liu Zong had not surreder? If Liu Zong had not surrender, Jing would definately not be lost (may be some small cities in the north) and Liu Bei woud definately have a stronger base to start. However, I still feel that he (Liu Bei) would end up killing Liu Biao's family anyhow...

Not necessary. In some ways, I find that this statement of yours contradicted your earlier statement. Here, you say that Liu Zong could definitely hold Jing Zhou if he did not surrender. Earlier you mention that a victory could not be guaranteed for Cao Cao if Liu Zong did not surrender (this does not mean that a victory is not possible). Sorry for being so particular.

Anyway, I've some points to add to the scenario that you presented.

In the beginning, Liu Bei was based at the city of Fan if I'm not wrong. When Cao Cao advanced south, his troops might be tired but their morale might not be low. Also, the battle at Jing Zhou was mostly land-based and not river-based. Hence, the number of factors against Cao Cao initially were actually not that many. In addition, during Liu Biao's time, Liu Bei was not fully trusted. Hence, the number of troops assigned to Liu Bei might not be that many. Given some of Liu Bei's marvellous records against Cao Cao, there was a chance that he would be defeated once more (his situation against Cao Cao before Guan Du could be better and he lost).

Another point is the conflict between Liu Zong and Liu Qi. Would the two brothers stood hand-in-hand against their "common northern enemy"??

Lastly, would the officers respect Liu Zong? Many of them, including the most notable one Kuai Yue, already adviced Liu Zong to surrender. Note that in some of their advices, they even praised Cao Cao and regarded him as the representative ruler of China.

With that, I would say that the situation with Liu Biao was largely different than the one without. Liu Biao, to a large extent, could overcome some of the difficulties Liu Zong might face if the latter did not surrender. That would make resistance against Cao Cao a lot easier.

[rcsha]

If Liu Biao had survived for a while longer, then I belvie that Cao Cao wouldn't hae had much of a chance of taking Jing. He could only wage a one way invasion on Liu Biao...and that was going through Liu Bei's Xin Ye. He couldn't come in from the west, Liu Zhang and Zhang Lu were there. And to the east, Sun Quan was there. If Cao Cao dared make a move on either region, he'd have too many powerful enemies to take on, especially with Ma Teng to the northwest.

Had Liu Biao lived, he would have sent aid to Liu Bei and even if Liu Bei had lost at Xin Ye, Liu Biao could have set up a new fortification at Xiang Yang. Especially since Cao Cao would have lost a good bit of troops against Liu Bei's forces by then.

And surely if Liu Bei went to Liu Zhang, the latter would have aided Jingzhou. And thus Cao Cao would have had a real problem, not so much troop strength, since Liu Zhang wasn't very good in the line of a military, but in fronts to fight off. Liu Zhang also had some good generals to send, and if one of them could have gotten Sun Quan to join the war effort, Liu Biao could have marched straight up north after Cao Cao's defeat. He wanted to instill Liu Bei in his position after death, so Liu Bei would have rightfully taken over Jing. He would have taken Yizhou, too, assuming he still listened to Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong. And with all of these resources and such he could have easily defeated Zhang Lu. Shu might have actually won against Wei/Jin and Wu.

[Lance]

I don't think Liu Zhang would help....for the following reasons....
1)Zhang Lu
Liu Zhang is afraid of this guy and rightfully so....if you swapped their positions, Zhang Lu would wipe out Liu in about 3.6 seconds......
2)Liu Zhang
He doesn't seem to be very ambitious to me, even less so than Liu Biao. I think he'll just want to sit at home...
Well.....that's about it....and Sun Quan, though he wouldn't attack Biao, wouldn't help him because Biao killed his father.....and Ma Teng wasn't around in the northwest historically.........

[rcsha]

Aaah, but if Liu Bei were to offer assistance against Zhang Lu if Liu Zhang were to aid them, then it's possible that Liu Zhang would have aided them. Plus I do think that Sun Quan may have helped, perhaps not during Liu Biao's reign, but if Liu Bei had taken over the governorship, since after Jingzhou was taken, Cao Cao would have gone after Jiaozhou and Yangzhou.

[Lance]

If Liu Bei is away helping Liu Zhang fight Zhang Lu, how can be defending Xin Ye too? I didn't know he could clone himself j/k(and a bad one at that)

[Shadowlink]

his sopn liu zhong i think give up so cao cao take alot for soldiers from him and fought Sun Quan

[TheGreatNads]

I doubt Liu Biao would of done anything mainly because of his wife and Zhang Lu.

[Yuan Seth]

I actually think tht since he IS Liu Biao, and old, he wouldn't of done anything. He would of surrendered if anything.