Mods: Please move this thread if it doesn't fit the forum.
Please let me know if I'm off historically, and definitely let me know if I'm WAY off historically. I'm just attempting to lay out a plausible scenario here (not necessarily likely, just plausible)
Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon - A Shu-Han Victory Timeline
Part I: The Conquest of Yizhou and the Partition of Jingzhou
The Shu-Han Dynasty (or Southern Han Dynasty, as the capital remained in Cheng Du even after the capture of the Central Plains ) was the third and longest lasting iteration of what is now called the Greater Han Dynasty, ruling from 223 to 704, The Shu-Han Dynasty emerged from the chaos of the Three Kingdoms period, in which Shu Han, along with two other rival States, Wei and Wu, vied for control of China. While Wei was initially the most militarily powerful of the states, having taken control of the core areas of China, inherited much of the bureaucratic apparatus of the former Han, and had the Emperor under its control until Cao Wei formally declared for the Imperial Throne, the Shu-Wu alliance created in the wake of the Battle of Red Cliffs, coupled with Wei mistakes and excellent leadership by both Shu and Wu, slowly chipped away at Wei's military advantage until Shu was able to win decisive victories over Wei, then proceeding to subjugate Wu, unifying the land in the year 280.
In the wake of the victory over Cao Cao at Red Cliffs, the Shu faction, led by Liu Bei, a somewhat distant relative of the ruling Liu Imperial Family (though anti-Shu revisionists have overstated this distance, anthropologists and historians generally agree that Liu Bei was not significantly more distant from the original ruling line than, say, Liu Xiu of Eastern Han), expanded its rule through Southern Jing, claiming the Gui Yang, Chang Sha, Ling Ling, and Wu Ling commanderies. However, Liu Bei found an opportunity for further expansion when he was invited by Liu Zhang to guard his territory in Yizhou from northern aggression, particuarly that of Zhang Lu of Han Zhong. However, some in Liu Zhang's court felt that Liu Bei would be a more competent ruler (which turned out to be true) and thus wished to push Liu Zhang aside for Liu Bei. Liu Bei, having already planned on taking Yi in accordance with the famous Longzhong Plan outlined by Zhuge Liang, accepted the invitation and consolidated a power base as Jiameng Pass. Outmanuvering Liu Zhang completely and inducing much of Liu Zhang's officer corps to defect, as well as inducing the famous Ma Chao to join his army, Liu Bei forced Liu Zhang to surrender Cheng Du, thus placing Yizhou in the possession of Liu Bei’s faction.
In the immediate aftermath of the victory in Yizhou, Liu Bei found himself with a favorable position – a large chunk of territory stretching from Cheng Du in the West to Jiang Xia in the East, a large army, and a strong core of officers and administrators. However, he had to allocate those resources in a proper manner in order to achieve his goal of reunifying the Han and defeating Tsao Tsao. It was at this point that would set the tone for the struggles in the territory to come – he sent Pang Tong, who showed his services in the battles for Yizhou, back to Jing, and recalled Zhuge Liang to Cheng Du, while stationing Pang Tong at Jing along with Guan Yu and placing him as his adjutant commander. Liu Bei felt that Zhuge Liang was vital to securing the new territory and establishing a strong administrative regime (especially given that the Liu Zhang/Liu Yan regime was very lax administratively), while Jing was under immediate military threat from both Wei and Wu, and thus Pang Tong’s greater proficiency as a military strategist would be more helpful.
This arrangement would quickly be tested. Almost immediately upon the capture of Yizhou, Sun Quan demanded the “return” of parts of Jingzhou which he argued were lent to Liu Bei after the battle of Red Cliffs*. Liu Bei refused, prompting Sun Quan to send an invasion force to take the disputed commanderies. Lu Meng of Wu quickly took Ling Ling, Gui Yang and Chang Sha, sending letters to their administrators to induce them to surrender. However, Shu was poised to respond militarily. The powers seemed poised for war, however, Liu Bei’s hand was forced by the rapid invasion and defeat of Zhang Lu in the north of Yi by Cao Cao – he was forced to cut a hasty deal with Sun Quan, ceding Chang Sha and Gui Yang and recovering Ling Ling. The new Shu/Wu border would be the Xiang River as Jingzhou was split in two.