Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Timeline

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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby FoxWithWings » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:12 am

You're missing something: The next generation of Shu-Han (but if thats coming in the next section, you can just forget I brought that up). Furthermore, I don't understand why Shu would be so dead-set on invading north constantly. I didn't see the point of it in history either. Why don't they just focus on internal policies and issues, attracting men of ability and improving domestic conditions? That would give them much more strength in the future rather than their frequent invasions would.

Last thing, Pang Tong has to be in his twilight years by now, he can't have much longer to live, so someone in Shu has to be ready to take his place. And what of Zhuge Liang's successor. Is it going to be Jiang Wei? Honestly, if you picked someone else, that would be awesome, Jiang Wei always seemed like a disappointment to me.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:40 am

Fledgling Dragon wrote:Last thing, Pang Tong has to be in his twilight years by now, he can't have much longer to live, so someone in Shu has to be ready to take his place. And what of Zhuge Liang's successor. Is it going to be Jiang Wei? Honestly, if you picked someone else, that would be awesome, Jiang Wei always seemed like a disappointment to me.


*cough* Wang Ping *cough*.

I'm also wondering if your going to make Li Yan Pang Tong's successor?
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby LiuBeiwasGreat » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:25 pm

Sun Fin wrote:
Fledgling Dragon wrote:Last thing, Pang Tong has to be in his twilight years by now, he can't have much longer to live, so someone in Shu has to be ready to take his place. And what of Zhuge Liang's successor. Is it going to be Jiang Wei? Honestly, if you picked someone else, that would be awesome, Jiang Wei always seemed like a disappointment to me.


*cough* Wang Ping *cough*.

I'm also wondering if your going to make Li Yan Pang Tong's successor?


Don't forget Huang Quan, I am pretty sure in this timeline he doesn't go over to Wei. Li Yan, Wang Ping, or Huang Quan are all viable candidates. Though Wang Ping probably has he most historical proof of talent. Both Li Yan and Huang Quan were both praised by others but had little in the way of actual accomplishments.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby Sun Fin » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:35 pm

The reason I suggested Li Yan for Pang Tong's replacement was because in history he was a rival to Zhuge Liang and in this alternative history Zhuge Liang uses Jing to keep another of his rivals (Pang Tong) out of the court so it makes sense he'd do the same with another rival.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby LiuBeiwasGreat » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:40 pm

Was Li Yan really a rival? I guess you could say that as Liu Bei appointed him to be one of the top military leaders and Zhuge Liang did in fact hijack the Shu-Han military. In light of that, yeah I think that does make the most sense.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby To Establish Peace » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:28 pm

Fledgling Dragon wrote:You're missing something: The next generation of Shu-Han (but if thats coming in the next section, you can just forget I brought that up). Furthermore, I don't understand why Shu would be so dead-set on invading north constantly. I didn't see the point of it in history either. Why don't they just focus on internal policies and issues, attracting men of ability and improving domestic conditions? That would give them much more strength in the future rather than their frequent invasions would.

Last thing, Pang Tong has to be in his twilight years by now, he can't have much longer to live, so someone in Shu has to be ready to take his place. And what of Zhuge Liang's successor. Is it going to be Jiang Wei? Honestly, if you picked someone else, that would be awesome, Jiang Wei always seemed like a disappointment to me.


While disease and whatnot is always a factor, both of them are in their early 50s at this point and could easily give 10-15 more years of service.

The strike north is in my view an integral part of Zhuge Liang's grand strategy. The Longzhong Plan always prioritized Guanzhong over the attack against the Central Plains, possibly because he saw a direct invasion of Zhongyuan as a much harder nut to crack. If I recall, the original plan was for Liu Bei to lead an army through the Qinling Mountains while another general (I guess Guan Yu) strikes through the Central Plains, tying up massive amounts of Wei resources and forcing them to confront what would be an existential threat, meanwhile the western force would take control of the Northwest, drastically increasing Shu's resource base, allowing the possibility of cavalry formation, and setting up for one final assault from the west and South on Wei, possibly with Wu attacking Huainan and Xu.

Now, with a much stronger Shu state TTL it might be difficult to imagine Zhuge Liang taking total power the way he did in OTL, that mayyyyy be a plot hole, but at the same time Zhuge Liang would always be one of the 2 or 3 most powerful men in Shu and he became Chancellor even before the Xiaoting disaster and already was in charge of military logistics.

As for the future, there are a lot of options.

I could see Li Yan replacing Guan Yu and Pang Tong in Jing, maaaaaaybe. Though I need to write Liu Feng into the story, while I think that Feng would shut up and keep his head down in order to keep it attached, a surviving Liu Feng at the time of Shan's accession DOES make things interesting. Meng Da is still around but he has no reason to defect, and considering that he tried to go right back to Shu within 6 years of defecting to Wei, I don't see a reason why he'd rebel. He was pretty capable as well. There's also no reason why Jiang Wei wouldn't join up in this case, either for the same reasons or after Tianshui went down.

Also, what do you think of the idea that Shan ascending the throne later would make him more effective? I
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby FoxWithWings » Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:14 pm

Honestly? I don't think Liu Shan would age like fine wine, I think he's as capable as he's ever going to be, of course, as he continues to rule he will gain experience and become more effective.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby DragonAtma » Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:42 am

Pang Tong isn't in his twilight yet. He was born in 179, so he IS older than Zhuge Liang..... by two years (and, by this point of the ATL, is in his 40's).

-=-=-

As for Liu Shan, I see three ways of dealing with him:
(1) Give him an early death (plagues happen, plus infant mortality is high).
(2) Go with a nonstandard succession.
(3) Distract him from actual ruling.

Distracting him may not be the best idea; both Emperor An and Emperor Ling avoided governing (preferring wine, women, etc.), and wound up with a much weaker Han at the end of their reign.

As for an early death, keep in mind that Liu Shan's first son was born in 224, plus IIRC none of Liu Shan's sons were competent enough to get a mention (save for his fifth son Liu Chen committing suicide to protest Liu Shan's surrender in 263), so an early death would probably work best if Liu Shan died before 224. OTL Cao Rui had three sons, all of whom died young (which is why his heir Cao Fang was adopted, along with Cao Xun.... who died at the age of 13). If ATL Liu Bei's genetic sons were dead (or even merely sickly), a healthy Liu Feng -- who isn't disgraced here -- may suddenly become the best choice of heir.

Alternately, Liu Bei could test his sons by giving them each a minor post, only for all but Liu Feng to do a substandard job (or, for Liu Shan, fail miserably).

As for actual OTL Liu Shan ruling, keep in mind that even in his time, he was viewed as inept. Becoming emperor later probably won't help, seeing as even though he was enthroned in 223, he didn't really start to assert himself until around when Fei Yi's regency started (245). Before then, he was basically just rubber stamping Zhuge Liang, Jiang Wan, and Dong Yun's decisions.

-=-=-

EDIT: Okay, two more things to add:
(1) There were already issues with Yong Kai in the south; they really came to head when OTL Liu Bei died. Maybe a longer-living ATL Liu Bei could defuse the situation?
(2) From 189 to 226, Shi Xie and his family ran Jiao. In 210, Shi Xie submitted to Sun Quan. In 226, Shi Xie died.... and OTL Sun Quan replaced Shi Xie not with his son Shi Hui, but with Lu Dai. Shi Hui rebelled, but lost, and his clan lkost all power (and, in many cases, their lives). In this timeline, though, Liu Bei may intervene.... or ATL Shi Xie may send tributes to Liu Bei instead, seeing as Liu Bei is Shi Xie's boss's boss!
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby To Establish Peace » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:22 pm

As for actual OTL Liu Shan ruling, keep in mind that even in his time, he was viewed as inept. Becoming emperor later probably won't help, seeing as even though he was enthroned in 223, he didn't really start to assert himself until around when Fei Yi's regency started (245). Before then, he was basically just rubber stamping Zhuge Liang, Jiang Wan, and Dong Yun's decisions.


I've kinda had this on hiatus but Shu will likely either have won by 245 or have a fairly significant lead on the other two kingdoms. Also Liu Feng isn't a viable ruler; the Emperor of Shu HAS to be of the Han line. Granted, Liu Feng I think was sorta related to the Hans so...

The Yong Kai situation gets squashed pretty quickly with a surviving Liu Bei and Shu looking not nearly as vulnerable.
(2) From 189 to 226, Shi Xie and his family ran Jiao. In 210, Shi Xie submitted to Sun Quan. In 226, Shi Xie died.... and OTL Sun Quan replaced Shi Xie not with his son Shi Hui, but with Lu Dai. Shi Hui rebelled, but lost, and his clan lkost all power (and, in many cases, their lives). In this timeline, though, Liu Bei may intervene.... or ATL Shi Xie may send tributes to Liu Bei instead, seeing as Liu Bei is Shi Xie's boss's boss!


It depends - Jiao has literally no bearing on Shu's strategic interests, and even though Sun Quan would have formally submitted to Liu Bei, everyone knows that's tenuous. Nobody is going to risk the third Sun-Liu war in a decade over Shi Xie.
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Re: Crouching Phoenix, Hidden Dragon: A Shu-Han Victory Time

Unread postby DragonAtma » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:55 pm

According to the novel, Liu Feng was indeed descended from the imperial clan. Historically, details on his origin are unclear, but adoptions are often from someone fairly close within the same clan (such as Zhuge Liang adopting his nephew Zhuge Qiao, etc.). Unfortunately, details on whether Liu Feng is indeed part of the imperial clan may be permanently lost to history.

As for Shi Xie, keep two things in mind:
(1) If Shi Xie switches loyalty when Wei was invading Wu, Wu would be far too busy to fight him over it. Given how a weaker Wu may find war with Wei harder than in OTL, it's even possible that Sun Quan would reluctantly arrange to accept SHi Xie's switch in return for support against Wei (as one Shu vassal supporting another).
(2) While Jiao may have zero strategic value, if Shi Xie is loyal to Sun Quan, then Sun Quan controls 2.5 of Shu's 4 provinces and half of Shu's people. Yes, Sun Quan officially renounced imperial desires, but having him rival the non-Sun Quan parts of Shu in powerwoiuld be incredibly stable and begging for another Sun Quan attempt to take over (see Sun Ba/Sun He's rivalry, 242-250).

Still, this ATL is pretty well-written.
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