Was Lu Meng right?

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Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat Nov 17, 2007 4:36 pm

Evil? While his long term advice was questionable in terms of the outcome, why evil?
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Unread postby Shadowlink » Sat Nov 17, 2007 4:39 pm

ya he was evil :evil: .... just kidding. Guan Yu was just a gov I dont think he will attack Wu... Lu Meng was wrong but not evil.
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Unread postby xiaoxiannu » Sat Nov 17, 2007 7:24 pm

Hmm..I think Lu Meng has right and wrong decision. Right if we see he as Wu general who will do anything to make his kingdom more greater and safe from any thread. And in other hand, he made a wrong decision, why, since Jingzhou fallen to Wu hand, its more like a "sleeping area" which is not use by Wu force to attack Wei. Maybe both sides think they had enough to keep their guard one and another. I think thats a big waste, saying Jingzhou is a vital area which have a large population and many resources back then.
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Unread postby Lonely_dragon » Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:04 am

Well... I could say that Lu meng just wanted to make sure that Wu's Navy is invincible... with the great river fully in Wu's posession their Navy was unbeatable... altough with that they had lots of trouble defending this spread territories with many borders... Luckily they still had Shu as an ally...
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Re:

Unread postby PyroMystic » Thu May 12, 2016 1:25 pm

This thread has gotten really old but I feel inclined to give my two cents here:

Han Xin wrote:About Wu going on defensive after gaining JingZhou, I believe it was due to personel more than anything. This is what I dislike most about Lu Xun, unlike Zhou Yu (no matter how adventurous one might think his proposal might be) or Lu Meng they always plotting to expand their own kingdom. Lu Xun on the other hand was more of a conservative strategists, he only do things when he knew that he would succeed.


Firstly, screw it if anyone thinks like this! Of course ANYONE who is right in their mind would only launch an offensive campaign for something they know FOR CERTAIN they will win. Why a commander gamble his troops for an OFFENSIVE battle he isn't sure he will win? That would be suicide, and killing soldier in vain.

People can actually say this, shows how ignorant they are about war. This is NOT an adventure, nor a game. This is WAR. You won't risk people's life for something you aren't sure you will succeed.

What about Jiang Wei and Zhuge Liang then, who "always plotting to expand their own kingdom" but doing that while not sure he will succeed? They FAILED miserably. Can we say they were great strategist because they kept plotting to expand their own kingdom even when they weren't sure they will win? And also by that, do you mean Lu Xun had to be more aggresive and, say, attack Yong'an after Yi Ling? And also, is this also the case with Lu Kang?

Sometimes building a country does not always about quantity, but also quality. Zhou Yu (and Lu Meng) had their eyes on territoty, but Lu Xun's heart was on people. Lu Xun wanted to keep the newly build Wu safe from harm, both internally and externally. That's why he was content with just a defensive campaign. Zhou Yu and Lu Meng, however, didn't have to worry about that as the KINGDOM of Wu existed only in 222. Plus, Wu had just recovered from both Yi Ling and Cao Pi's campaign so it would be unwise to launch another offensive attack.

And about "he only do things when he knew that he would succeed", wasn't that what's great about Lu Xun? I always get the feeling that Lu Xun WAS ALWAYS PERFECTLY SURE he was going to win. It was as if he was always thinking, like “Heh, I KNOW their fighting spirit and moral will pummel after they felt the summer heat. I KNOW they will camp near the forest. I KNOW they are angry and they are cocky just because they have more soldiers.” While Zhou Yu was more like, “Let’s just hope for the best. Who knows, maybe we can fool Cao Cao. So, okay, you do this Pang Tong. You do this, Huang Gai. You do this, Zhuge Liang…”

Tl;dr Sure, Zhou Yu was a great strategist, but I won't say he's a good person. As for Lu Xun, maybe he wasn't that great of a war commander, but he was a better person


And now, to answer the question:

I cannot, for the life of me, understand why people can say Lu Meng is wrong. His decision to attack Guan Yu was 100% correct and here's why:

1. By eliminating Guan Yu, Wu would at least have a face in this war. I mean, look, Wu had ALWAYS been like a complete underdog ever since Sun Ce's death, that's why Cao Cao decided to attack Chibi. And letting Shu keep Jing Province for god-knows-how-long would only make it worst as Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang would continue underestimating Wu. And now that Lu Meng attacked and defeated Guan Yu, it was a message from Wu to the likes of Zhuge Liang, "DON'T MESS WITH US." This is also true for Wei, expecially after Cao Pi's attack had been repelled.

2. This is the time for Lu Xun to rise, and show the world how capable he was. Had Lu Meng not attack Fan Castle and receive aid from Lu Xun, his talent would still not be discovered, and maybe he would be unknown for the rest of his life. Now that he was known through out even Wei, and even Cao Rui feared him, Sun Quan can use him to his maximum potential.

3. While it's true that Wu spent a great deal of effort to guard Jing (Lu Kang's bio states this), at least it's now safe in Wu's hand instead of Shu. IF that Guan Yu who guarded Jing are easily defeated by someone like Lu Xun who was pretty much a nobody that time, and by Lu Meng who wasn't as capable as Zhou Yu, then Jing was doomed. Guan Yu would be defeated by Wei sooner or later. Period. It would be better for Wu to take it before Wei did. In fact, Wu had been keeping it safe even to Sun Hao's reign.

4. CMIIW, but Wu didn't suffer great loss at Fan. They gain everything and lost nothing so why should they refrain from attacking Shu and, quoting Lu Meng from Dynasty Warriors, "allowing a worthless alliance to suck them dry?"

5. While this is certainly not ethical, but it would be a good 'take that' to Shu. Shu, especially that cocky overrated god-complex Zhuge Liang, had been 'bullying' Wu for, like, eternity.

As for the argument saying that now they both lost chance to defeat Wei, well, what was it that Shu after? Shu was certainly not interested in defeating Wei. Shu just wanted more and more land. That's it. They won't even hesitant to attack Wu if needed. Why should Wu hold that idealism while Shu didn't? Besides, was it really TRUE that Wu lost the chance to defeat Wei? I personally think that now that Shu was extremely weakened and Wu grew stronger, their chance to actually defeat Wei is bigger, and they will defeat Wei themselves without depending on that horrible unworthiness that is Shu

Attacking Fan Castle while at the same breaking the already broken alliance and killing a huge threat was the best decision Lu Meng had ever taken in his life. Heck, it's the best decision anyone in Three Kingdoms had ever taken.
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Re: Was Lu Meng right?

Unread postby DragonAtma » Thu May 12, 2016 3:55 pm

Keep in mind why Shu and Wu were allied: Wei had two thirds of china's people.

If Wu attacks Shu and fails, it's good news for Wei, because their southern opponents are weaker.
If Wu attacks Shu and succeeds, it's still good news for Wei, because their southern opponents are weaker.

Finally, keep in mind that in 221, Sun Quan was worried enough that he temporarily submitted to Wei. Liu Ye recommended that SUn Quan was stalling for time and that Cao Pi reject the submission; if he did so (or insisted that Sun Quan prove that his submission is true by moving to a northern province), then Wei would undoubtedly get land south of the Yangtze (Wei had several times as many people as Shu; Wei taking only half of Wu's land would be VERY generous to Shu), and they would unify china within a decade.
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Re: Was Lu Meng right?

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Thu May 12, 2016 6:43 pm

Firstly, screw it if anyone thinks like this! Of course ANYONE who is right in their mind would only launch an offensive campaign for something they know FOR CERTAIN they will win. Why a commander gamble his troops for an OFFENSIVE battle he isn't sure he will win? That would be suicide, and killing soldier in vain.

People can actually say this, shows how ignorant they are about war. This is NOT an adventure, nor a game. This is WAR. You won't risk people's life for something you aren't sure you will succeed.


No you can't "screw it" becuase people have different views on warfare

PyroMystic, I love most of your post (I disagree and I look forward to debating it) but your going over the top by declaring anyone who disagrees with you about when the time to go to war is to be ignorant, not of their right mind and so on.
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Unread postby Zyzyfer » Fri May 13, 2016 6:34 am

PyroMystic wrote:1. By eliminating Guan Yu, Wu would at least have a face in this war. I mean, look, Wu had ALWAYS been like a complete underdog ever since Sun Ce's death, that's why Cao Cao decided to attack Chibi. And letting Shu keep Jing Province for god-knows-how-long would only make it worst as Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang would continue underestimating Wu. And now that Lu Meng attacked and defeated Guan Yu, it was a message from Wu to the likes of Zhuge Liang, "DON'T MESS WITH US." This is also true for Wei, expecially after Cao Pi's attack had been repelled.


Taking Jing did a lot to assert Wu again but I don't think it's fair to say they were the underdog the entire time after Sun Ce died. Granted it was relatively quiet from 200 to 208 for them as Sun Quan consolidated his strength and dealt with Huang Zu at last, but then you've got Chibi. Chibi put them on the map in a big way, Cao Cao for the first time gets truly repulsed to the point where he has to tuck his tail between his legs. Sure, neither could gain a clear advantage after that, but Wu proved it was here to stay.

3. While it's true that Wu spent a great deal of effort to guard Jing (Lu Kang's bio states this), at least it's now safe in Wu's hand instead of Shu. IF that Guan Yu who guarded Jing are easily defeated by someone like Lu Xun who was pretty much a nobody that time, and by Lu Meng who wasn't as capable as Zhou Yu, then Jing was doomed. Guan Yu would be defeated by Wei sooner or later. Period. It would be better for Wu to take it before Wei did. In fact, Wu had been keeping it safe even to Sun Hao's reign.


I don't know, it's hard to guard Jing when you're off attacking elsewhere. Not that Guan Yu is completely innocent here, but I think it's pretty clear that he was operating under the assumption that Wu wouldn't make a move on Jing. Which, that's a kind of unintelligent thing to think in general, leaving your land barely defended, so I think it's fair to assume that he was relying on their alliance.

But the handling of Jing during those years is one of the most hotly contested topics of the era. People often debate, who was in the right? No one really was devoid of wrongdoing at some point in its handling, so I get the impression it was a powder keg waiting to go off.

Anyway, my point is, I believe there was a lot more behind Guan Yu losing Jing than something as simple as him being inept.

And as for your other points, they seem to be coming from the novel, so I refrained from responding to them since I'm not that versed in the novel now.

As for the argument saying that now they both lost chance to defeat Wei, well, what was it that Shu after? Shu was certainly not interested in defeating Wei. Shu just wanted more and more land. That's it.


Same could be said about Wu, de Crespigny himself says that Wu's strength was essentially based on continued expansion.

They won't even hesitant to attack Wu if needed.


I guess you're referring to Guan Yu seizing supplies? That wasn't smart and was really short-sighted, but I wouldn't outright call it not being hesitant to attack Wu.

Besides, was it really TRUE that Wu lost the chance to defeat Wei? I personally think that now that Shu was extremely weakened and Wu grew stronger, their chance to actually defeat Wei is bigger, and they will defeat Wei themselves without depending on that horrible unworthiness that is Shu


Quite negative about Shu haha

It's true that taking Jing positioned Wu better for taking on Wei. And that Shu was weakened. That's basically in Wu's best interests, of course, but I think it's a net loss for the two of them as allies. Why not just cooperate after the 215 split was negotiated? That's a question directed toward both sides, by the way.

Attacking Fan Castle while at the same breaking the already broken alliance and killing a huge threat was the best decision Lu Meng had ever taken in his life. Heck, it's the best decision anyone in Three Kingdoms had ever taken.


I wouldn't say it's a bad decision, and I don't know what else could qualify as a best decision, but he had to have known what path his choice was taking their two countries down.
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Re: Was Lu Meng right?

Unread postby Dong Zhou » Sat May 14, 2016 4:51 pm

PyroMystic

Warfare

Firstly, screw it if anyone thinks like this! Of course ANYONE who is right in their mind would only launch an offensive campaign for something they know FOR CERTAIN they will win. Why a commander gamble his troops for an OFFENSIVE battle he isn't sure he will win? That would be suicide, and killing soldier in vain.

People can actually say this, shows how ignorant they are about war. This is NOT an adventure, nor a game. This is WAR. You won't risk people's life for something you aren't sure you will succeed.


Cao Cao, Han Sui, Ma Chao and Zhang Xiu were ignorant of war when they fought camapigns/battles they doubted on? General Eisenhower prepared a letter for if he failed with the D-Day invasions, taking personal responsibility, was he ignorant of war?

Whatever you think of their miliatry abilities, they were experienced commanders and no hints of insanity at those times. There are circumstances where one can be near certain of victory before an invasion but rarely in a civil war like the 3kingdoms or facing a first world power like Eisenhower. Bad weather alone can destroy a camapign in those circumstances, let alone the hundreds of things that can go wrong otherwise. It wasn't that they didn't care about their men but a policy of never fighting unless you can be sure of victory has it's own flaws (and in some cases is impossible) and in each case, they had reason why they thought that taking a chance would prove beneficial in the long run.

Most offensive camapigns are calculating odds and trusting ability to see victory through, that the advantages of success are greater then the cost of failure or doing nothing.

What about Jiang Wei and Zhuge Liang then, who "always plotting to expand their own kingdom" but doing that while not sure he will succeed? They FAILED miserably. Can we say they were great strategist because they kept plotting to expand their own kingdom even when they weren't sure they will win? And also by that, do you mean Lu Xun had to be more aggresive and, say, attack Yong'an after Yi Ling? And also, is this also the case with Lu Kang?


Neither were great strategists. Shu is a good example though of the dilemma

1) The pacifistic approach. Jiang Wan and to a lesser extent didn't attack Wei (Fei Yi allowed two Jiang Wei raids). Shu's prosperity continued but it allowed Wei to relax and focus resources elsewhere and the problem with it is that it becomes a game of time-waiting. Can one province Shu outlast the far larger and better resources kingdoms of Wu and Shu? If Shu isn't going to attack, it's only hope is for Shu to outlast kingdoms with better everything. The miliatry would have lacked expirence and didn't develop officer talent within it's officer core during that

2) Jiang Wei's approach. Jiang Wei was a poor CIC for so many reasons and one of them was his fame-hungry invasions that exhausted Shu's resources, weakened the army and led to mass riots. He went to extreme, always on the war looking, always looking to attack, ignoring the politics and administrative needs

3) Zhuge Liang. He found the balance between the 2. Try to keep Wei on the defensive, ensure it has to tie up resources on it's western flank, trying to take advantage of opportunities and grow Shu. Yet without neglecting the administrative concerns of Shu, the kingdom prospered under him after all. One can say many negative things about his abilities as a commander and tactician, about his milatry record, but I don't think his policy was wrong.

I can't speak for Han Xin but I don't think Yong'an is what he meant, Lu Xun gave a reasonable explanation as to why not to press Shu further. I think Han Xin is saying Lu Xun neither pushed against Wei during his career and when he did go on the offensive, didn't do well a he lacked Lu Meng's tactical flair.

Lu Xun vs Wu commanders

Sometimes building a country does not always about quantity, but also quality. Zhou Yu (and Lu Meng) had their eyes on territoty, but Lu Xun's heart was on people. Lu Xun wanted to keep the newly build Wu safe from harm, both internally and externally. That's why he was content with just a defensive campaign. Zhou Yu and Lu Meng, however, didn't have to worry about that as the KINGDOM of Wu existed only in 222. Plus, Wu had just recovered from both Yi Ling and Cao Pi's campaign so it would be unwise to launch another offensive attack.


So when Lu Xun died with Wu still under threat from large Wei and without Wu's position strengthened since he had become CiC, didn't Lu Xun fail the people?

Lu Xun did launch some (failed) offensive camapigns so clearly not just content with defence.

The bold part is a weird argument that I don't understand. Becoming emperor didn't suddenly turn Sun Quan's regime from an army with no people or political status so that in 222, people suddenly appeared and lived in the Wu lands. Zhou Yu and Lu Meng both had the concerns of state on them, Sun Quan was an independent warlord with people living under him. 222 changed him to a formal emperor and had some political/diplomatic consequences but it didn't suddenly change the nature of Wu's CIC's.

And about "he only do things when he knew that he would succeed", wasn't that what's great about Lu Xun? I always get the feeling that Lu Xun WAS ALWAYS PERFECTLY SURE he was going to win. It was as if he was always thinking, like “Heh, I KNOW their fighting spirit and moral will pummel after they felt the summer heat. I KNOW they will camp near the forest. I KNOW they are angry and they are cocky just because they have more soldiers.” While Zhou Yu was more like, “Let’s just hope for the best. Who knows, maybe we can fool Cao Cao. So, okay, you do this Pang Tong. You do this, Huang Gai. You do this, Zhuge Liang…”


Not really. Partly becuase Lu Xun failed at times, partly becuase Lu Xun didn't strengthen Wu externally as CiC. Whereas Zhou Yu never ever lost a camapign and strengthened Wu

Given Lu Xun fought and lost against Liu Bei forces and changed tactics becuase of that, then came up with fire attack after a further battle, it is certainly not like he always knew that a fire attack was going to happen. Where he does deserve credit is as Wu was pushed back, he did realize there were strong advantages to taking a defensive stance, that Liu Bei would not be daring and would extend his supply lines, that a chance would come. He also deserves great credit for seeing through Liu Bei's ambush and spotting fire attack when he did

That is a poor poor representation of the battle of Chi Bi. Also Zhuge Liang and Pang Tong had no part in Chi Bi. Zhou Yu gave good reasons to fight at Chi Bi and his surmations proved to be correct, he won the naval battles and yes, the spectacular fire attack was Huang Gai's. One of the things Zhou Yu was very good at was taking advice

Tl;dr Sure, Zhou Yu was a great strategist, but I won't say he's a good person. As for Lu Xun, maybe he wasn't that great of a war commander, but he was a better person


Why?

Even judging by your own demands for never launching a camapign that one isn't 100% certain of winning would favour Zhou Yu over Lu Xun

Jing

1) Like Zy says, your overselling the underdog bit. There is a point that Shu had overtaken Wu in terms of prestige and taking Jing reversed that but it is a bit petty a reason over the long term.

2) Lu Xun was hardly an unknown before the taking of Jing. He was from one of the most important families in Wu, had served Sun Quan personally at the age of 21, married into the Sun clan and an experienced offical. He was Lu Meng's decoy/cover as CIC.

Jing didn't make Lu Xun either in truth (partly becuase a lot of other people had similar plans). Lu Meng wanted Zhu Ran as successor, Wu's generals nearly mutinied under Lu Xun. It was Yiling and reading Cao Pi's intentions that established Lu Xun's reputation within and without Wu. I don't recall Cao Rui ever fearing Lu Xun historically and doing a camapign to launch one guy's reputation is not a great idea.

3) Wu never declared they were worried about Shu losing the province to Wei in all their discussions and plans.

Yes Guan Yu did lose Jing to an attack when his army was away, Wei would never get such an opportunity.. Lu Meng was a great tactician and one of Wu's greatest commanders while you seem a bit too keen on status, either Lu Xun was a great commander and so no shame in losing to those two or Lu Xun wasn't a great commander, his status doesn't affect it. Wu took some of their big boys

4) The 219 invasion of Jing was a perfect camapign, it was a master-class. The question isn't the quality of Lu Meng's camapign, more whether it was the right decision long term.

5) Historically, Zhuge Liang for Wu was a one time diplomat and a senior civil officer who just happened to be related to one of their senior officers. They weren't bullied or that concerned by him.

Relations with Shu were dire for some time, even after the 215 treaty. I can certainly understand Wu not trusting Shu but no threat from Shu was imminent other then Shu were doing far better then Wu at the time. Sacrificing the long term interest to given Shu a slap in the face seems petty.

As for the argument saying that now they both lost chance to defeat Wei, well, what was it that Shu after? Shu was certainly not interested in defeating Wei. Shu just wanted more and more land. That's it. They won't even hesitant to attack Wu if needed. Why should Wu hold that idealism while Shu didn't? Besides, was it really TRUE that Wu lost the chance to defeat Wei? I personally think that now that Shu was extremely weakened and Wu grew stronger, their chance to actually defeat Wei is bigger, and they will defeat Wei themselves without depending on that horrible unworthiness that is Shu


1) To rule the land. Just like Wei and Wu.

2) Given Shu was doing the heavy lifting against Wu during that spell, they were clearly interested in taking Wei's lands.

3) No idea why your suddenly claiming anyone is arguing Wu should be idealistic. The argument is whether attacking Jing was right policy, not on it's morals

4) Would Shu attack Wu if it felt it needed to? Yes. However Shu's only invasion of Wu was Yiling after Wu seized Shu lands and killed a senior general. Wu invaded Shu 2-3 times. One has a rather larger track record of attacking it's own ally

5) If Shu is unworthy, what does it make Wu who were doing worse? Also Wu didn't defeat Wei so that clearly didn't work

The argument is that before Wu took Jing, Wei was on the backfoot due to Shu. It had lost Hanzhong, it was panicking over Guan Yu's attack, it had one of it's most seniors captured, it was pulling troops out of Hefei. Wu took Jing, pressure was off Wei and it was never put on the backfoot again.

Attacking Fan Castle while at the same breaking the already broken alliance and killing a huge threat was the best decision Lu Meng had ever taken in his life. Heck, it's the best decision anyone in Three Kingdoms had ever taken.


Tuntian farming system that ended famine might be a better one?
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Re: Was Lu Meng right?

Unread postby DragonAtma » Sat May 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Technically, Sun Quan didn't declare himself emperor until 229. In 222, Duke Sun Quan was appointed King of Wu and given the nine bestowments by (of all people!) Cao Pi, as recognition of Sun Quan's submission. Sun Quan obviously knew it was not a real submission; undoubtedly Cao Pi and his court also knew that, but Cao Pi decided (against Liu Ye's advice) that rejecting the submission was too much bad PR, so they both let the farce go through.
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