Was Lu Meng right?

[Mega Zarak]

According to Lu Meng's SGZ biography, Lu Meng proposed to Sun Quan that it would be better for Wu that Guan Yu was eliminated and Jing Zhou became part of Wu territory. He was skeptical about Guan Yu's trustworthiness and feared that Guan Yu might attack Wu one day if the latter was weak. Also, he saw the strategic advantage that Wu might have if Jing Zhou was controlled by Wu.

Sun Quan agreed with his plans and subsequently, when Guan Yu raided a Wu silo near the Xiang river for army supplies, Wu found the excuse to launch a sneak attack at Jing Zhou. With the lost of Jing Zhou, Shu's foundation had weakened considerably. Also, in the years to come, Wu had to bear the burden of defending Jing Zhou (different parts of Nan prefecture) from multiple incursions from Wei/Jin (as noted from the annotations and the actual SGZ biographies of Sun Quan, Lu Xun, Zhuge Jin, Zhu Ran, Lu Kang, etc.). All in all, as a result of Lu Meng's plan to assault Jing Zhou, the following consequences were suffered by the alliance:

i) Weakening of Shu
ii) Increasing the burden of Wu to defend against Wei/Jin
iii) Damage of diplomatic ties leading to the battle of Yi Ling with disastrous effects on Shu
iv) Shifting of initiatives at Jing Zhou region (i.e. Guan Yu had the initiative when he attacked Fan and Xiang Yang, though we do not know how he would fare if things have gone otherwise. After Jing Zhou changed hand, Wu was more on the defensive than offensive).

As such, I would like to question if Lu Meng was right in advising Sun Quan to take Jing Zhou and eliminate Guan Yu.

[Jimayo]

I've got to go with a big negatory on that one. The long term effects of those actions meant that neither Wu nor Shu had any chance of defeating Wei.

[Starscream]

What is the main priority of Wu in the first place? Apparently, what Lu Meng did reaped a huge short term profit but led to a great negative long-term consequence. On the context of the Wu-Shu alliance, this must be the most detrimental thing to do, since such petty squabbles were only a waste of time and resources and should have been directed at the common foe, Wei. Great distrust ensued after Wu had caused the death of one of the most important generals in Shu.

To me, Wu seemed to be constantly changing political agendas, sometimes it's expansionary, sometimes it's defensive. Thus, Wu had become the unstable factor during the three kingdoms. Wu was not a trustable neighbour for both Wei and Shu. Wu could be the ally and enemy anytime, and manipulate diplomatic ties to its own advantage, depending on the agenda it was pursuing at the moment. This can be reflected through the battles fought against Wei and Shu, as well as the alliance and even subordination made to Shu and Wei respectively.

[Chen Kun]

What is the main priority of Wu in the first place? Apparently, what Lu Meng did reaped a huge short term profit but led to a great negative long-term consequence. On the context of the Wu-Shu alliance, this must be the most detrimental thing to do, since such petty squabbles were only a waste of time and resources and should have been directed at the common foe, Wei. Great distrust ensued after Wu had caused the death of one of the most important generals in Shu.

To me, Wu seemed to be constantly changing political agendas, sometimes it's expansionary, sometimes it's defensive. Thus, Wu had become the unstable factor during the three kingdoms. Wu was not a trustable neighbour for both Wei and Shu. Wu could be the ally and enemy anytime, and manipulate diplomatic ties to its own advantage, depending on the agenda it was pursuing at the moment. This can be reflected through the battles fought against Wei and Shu, as well as the alliance and even subordination made to Shu and Wei respectively.

I think that was Wu's main problem,they didn't have their aims
Shu was built in order to revive Han,while Weil aims for power,but Wu??
Wu only looked for opportunity,and will grab any chance they can grab

[Han Xin]

I think that was Wu's main problem,they didn't have their aims

Really? what proof do you have to say that Wu don't have an aim? Did Shu really have any aim at all after Liu Bei had taken HanZhong?

Shu was built in order to revive Han,while Weil aims for power,but Wu??

Shu was built to revive the Han? Thats mean that Zhuge Liang was the biggest traitor in the history of the Han empire and Han was finished in 229AD.

Wu only looked for opportunity,and will grab any chance they can grab

Doesn't anyone during chaos era? Could you name me one empire in history that does not attack an opponent during an opportune time? If you called Wu opportunist, you should learn more about your idol Zhuge Liang himself (thankfully Lu Xun was not dumb enough to fall into ZL tricked or Wu would be in big trouble ).

Anyway it is pointless arguing with crap like Liu Bei/Shu aim was to restore the Han and Wu had no aim when their is good historical evident to counter that claim.

Back to the topic.

According to Lu Meng's SGZ biography, Lu Meng proposed to Sun Quan that it would be better for Wu that Guan Yu was eliminated and Jing Zhou became part of Wu territory. He was skeptical about Guan Yu's trustworthiness and feared that Guan Yu might attack Wu one day if the latter was weak. Also, he saw the strategic advantage that Wu might have if Jing Zhou was controlled by Wu.

It is naive to suggest that either or both Shu or Wu would trust each other regarding their own security. JingZhou was vital for Wu's security much more so than Shu, during the battle of ChiBi, the thought of Cao Cao's fleet gathering at WuLin was enough to cause panic with some of Wu officals. Lu Meng's plan was very sound, having someone else's soldiers to guard your house was no way you could guarantee your own safety (Liu Zhang should serve as a good examples).

Sun Quan agreed with his plans and subsequently, when Guan Yu raided a Wu silo near the Xiang river for army supplies, Wu found the excuse to launch a sneak attack at Jing Zhou. With the lost of Jing Zhou, Shu's foundation had weakened considerably. Also, in the years to come, Wu had to bear the burden of defending Jing Zhou (different parts of Nan prefecture) from multiple incursions from Wei/Jin (as noted from the annotations and the actual SGZ biographies of Sun Quan, Lu Xun, Zhuge Jin, Zhu Ran, Lu Kang, etc.). All in all, as a result of Lu Meng's plan to assault Jing Zhou, the following consequences were suffered by the alliance:

i) Weakening of Shu

With the weakenning of Shu, Wu found it easier to take the leading role in the alliance. The weakening of Shu might hinderred the Wu-Shu alliance in their ultimate victories over Wei, however it would atleast give Wu a fighting chance of survival. Remember, without that portion of JingZhou, Wu would still remain the smallest of the three kingdoms, if their is a change in the situation, Wu would gained little if the situation was favourable, and could lost everything if the situation was otherwise.

ii) Increasing the burden of Wu to defend against Wei/Jin

Gaining JingZhou would also reduce the size of the frontiers that Wu had exposed. After gaining JingZhou, Wu was only exposed in a small region on its western frontiers against Shu, but increase in the frontiers that was expose to Wei. So in effect, gaining JingZhou probably mean that Wu had lest area of border where it had to defence plus they also gained populous prefectures in JingZhou. So it work in favour of Wu.

iii) Damage of diplomatic ties leading to the battle of Yi Ling with disastrous effects on Shu

Its damages short term relation, however with Shu being severly weaken after the lost of JingZhou (+the lost of Guan Yu) and a morale crushing defeat at YiLing, it more than likely that Shu would not have been able to stand alone. With situation as such, Shu only choice is to ally itself with one of the bigger guy. So I believe that Lu Meng was banking on that Shu would be force to mend relation with Wu (even with Guan Yu killed, infact Wu's position was stronger with Guan Yu out of the way).

iv) Shifting of initiatives at Jing Zhou region (i.e. Guan Yu had the initiative when he attacked Fan and Xiang Yang, though we do not know how he would fare if things have gone otherwise. After Jing Zhou changed hand, Wu was more on the defensive than offensive).

As such, I would like to question if Lu Meng was right in advising Sun Quan to take Jing Zhou and eliminate Guan Yu.

Guan Yu gaining XiangYang and Fan could be more disasterous for Wu than one might think. With the region north of JingZhou began to open up, Liu Bei might tried to garison HanZhong and put most of his force in JingZhou to tried and score a crushing blow to Wei by attacking their capital. After Wei had gone, then so would be Wu.

About Wu going on defensive after gaining JingZhou, I believe it was due to personel more than anything. This is what I dislike most about Lu Xun, unlike Zhou Yu (no matter how adventurous one might think his proposal might be) or Lu Meng they always plotting to expand their own kingdom. Lu Xun on the other hand was more of a conservative strategists, he only do things when he knew that he would succeed.

[Chen Kun]

I think that was Wu's main problem,they didn't have their aims

Really? what proof do you have to say that Wu don't have an aim? Did Shu really have any aim at all after Liu Bei had taken HanZhong?

Shu was built in order to revive Han,while Weil aims for power,but Wu??

Shu was built to revive the Han? Thats mean that Zhuge Liang was the biggest traitor in the history of the Han empire and Han was finished in 229AD.

Wu only looked for opportunity,and will grab any chance they can grab

Doesn't anyone during chaos era? Could you name me one empire in history that does not attack an opponent during an opportune time? If you called Wu opportunist, you should learn more about your idol Zhuge Liang himself (thankfully Lu Xun was not dumb enough to fall into ZL tricked or Wu would be in big trouble ).

Anyway it is pointless arguing with crap like Liu Bei/Shu aim was to restore the Han and Wu had no aim when their is good historical evident to counter that claim.

Back to the topic.

According to Lu Meng's SGZ biography, Lu Meng proposed to Sun Quan that it would be better for Wu that Guan Yu was eliminated and Jing Zhou became part of Wu territory. He was skeptical about Guan Yu's trustworthiness and feared that Guan Yu might attack Wu one day if the latter was weak. Also, he saw the strategic advantage that Wu might have if Jing Zhou was controlled by Wu.

It is naive to suggest that either or both Shu or Wu would trust each other regarding their own security. JingZhou was vital for Wu's security much more so than Shu, during the battle of ChiBi, the thought of Cao Cao's fleet gathering at WuLin was enough to cause panic with some of Wu officals. Lu Meng's plan was very sound, having someone else's soldiers to guard your house was no way you could guarantee your own safety (Liu Zhang should serve as a good examples).

Sun Quan agreed with his plans and subsequently, when Guan Yu raided a Wu silo near the Xiang river for army supplies, Wu found the excuse to launch a sneak attack at Jing Zhou. With the lost of Jing Zhou, Shu's foundation had weakened considerably. Also, in the years to come, Wu had to bear the burden of defending Jing Zhou (different parts of Nan prefecture) from multiple incursions from Wei/Jin (as noted from the annotations and the actual SGZ biographies of Sun Quan, Lu Xun, Zhuge Jin, Zhu Ran, Lu Kang, etc.). All in all, as a result of Lu Meng's plan to assault Jing Zhou, the following consequences were suffered by the alliance:

i) Weakening of Shu

With the weakenning of Shu, Wu found it easier to take the leading role in the alliance. The weakening of Shu might hinderred the Wu-Shu alliance in their ultimate victories over Wei, however it would atleast give Wu a fighting chance of survival. Remember, without that portion of JingZhou, Wu would still remain the smallest of the three kingdoms, if their is a change in the situation, Wu would gained little if the situation was favourable, and could lost everything if the situation was otherwise.

ii) Increasing the burden of Wu to defend against Wei/Jin

Gaining JingZhou would also reduce the size of the frontiers that Wu had exposed. After gaining JingZhou, Wu was only exposed in a small region on its western frontiers against Shu, but increase in the frontiers that was expose to Wei. So in effect, gaining JingZhou probably mean that Wu had lest area of border where it had to defence plus they also gained populous prefectures in JingZhou. So it work in favour of Wu.

iii) Damage of diplomatic ties leading to the battle of Yi Ling with disastrous effects on Shu

Its damages short term relation, however with Shu being severly weaken after the lost of JingZhou (+the lost of Guan Yu) and a morale crushing defeat at YiLing, it more than likely that Shu would not have been able to stand alone. With situation as such, Shu only choice is to ally itself with one of the bigger guy. So I believe that Lu Meng was banking on that Shu would be force to mend relation with Wu (even with Guan Yu killed, infact Wu's position was stronger with Guan Yu out of the way).

iv) Shifting of initiatives at Jing Zhou region (i.e. Guan Yu had the initiative when he attacked Fan and Xiang Yang, though we do not know how he would fare if things have gone otherwise. After Jing Zhou changed hand, Wu was more on the defensive than offensive).

As such, I would like to question if Lu Meng was right in advising Sun Quan to take Jing Zhou and eliminate Guan Yu.

Guan Yu gaining XiangYang and Fan could be more disasterous for Wu than one might think. With the region north of JingZhou began to open up, Liu Bei might tried to garison HanZhong and put most of his force in JingZhou to tried and score a crushing blow to Wei by attacking their capital. After Wei had gone, then so would be Wu.

About Wu going on defensive after gaining JingZhou, I believe it was due to personel more than anything. This is what I dislike most about Lu Xun, unlike Zhou Yu (no matter how adventurous one might think his proposal might be) or Lu Meng they always plotting to expand their own kingdom. Lu Xun on the other hand was more of a conservative strategists, he only do things when he knew that he would succeed.

first Wu decided to cooperate with Shu and then surrender to Wei,need more proofs?I think Wu got their aim when A Quan declared himself as emperor

[Russell]

I believe Lu Meng was right. He could not foresee some of these effects, so it was, at the time an excellent decision, which had some other consequences. IMO, it was a great idea.

[Cao Ren]

he was right, it was a good oppurtunity to take a great province for wu, if the attacks were launched on jingzhou(controlled by wu) why would it be much differ if shu controlled them?

[Han Xin]

first Wu decided to cooperate with Shu and then surrender to Wei,need more proofs?I think Wu got their aim when A Quan declared himself as emperor

First, Wu only wanted Wei to stay out of the fighting in the south and was never surrender to Wei. Before JingZhou was captured, Wu decided to keep Wei on its side by agreeing to become Wei vassal. However, Sun Quan never really submit to Wei and frequent attempts by Wei to secure Sun Quan's heir as hostage was meet with delaying tactics by Sun Quan. When victory at YiLing was insight, Sun Quan broke off relation with Wei and declare himself independent (note: Although Wu did not declare emperor in 223AD, it did infact used separate calenda from Wei to show that they were independent).

Wu got their aim when Sun Quan declared himself Emperor? So was Shu. I don't see any real attempts on Wei after Shu got HanZhong thats 219AD.

[Danktrees]

wu allied with shu, so their objectives should have been the same. liu bei tried to restore han and sun quan also vowed to attack and destroy the "traitor" cao cao. zhuge liang may have persuaded liu bei to ruthlessly take land from others...but in reality what was so bad about that? if liu bei was to succeed he needed to be more agressive to stand against cao cao. leaving jingzhou for cao cao was stupid enough and then allowing zhang lu and liu zhang (two incapable leaders) to rule such vital territory was a bad decision. furthermore when guan yu attacked wei, wu had the perfect oppurtunity to begin penetration into the northern heartland, and with liu bei in the riverlands, guan yu in jingzhou and wu coming up from the south, cao cao would have been royally screwed. however, wu was only concerned with their precious jingzhou and basically ended up losing in the end anyways, because without shu, wu has no chance against wei. another problem is that sun quan was much like yuan shao in the sense that he cant make decisions by himself. he was easily persuaded to defend against cao cao at chi bi by zhuge liang. he decided not to submit to cao cao because he thought it would be wrong. however, later on the advice of lu meng, he is again persuaded and this time he attacks guan yu. there are many other things he did which were easily influenced by his officials and that's what made him so hard to trust. he agrees to an alliance, then he tries to steal liu shan by using his own sister. kinda stupid actually.

also why do some of you blame liu bei for not accepting zhuge jin's proposal? obviously the proposal was full of lies which would have just angered liu bei even more. had liu bei listened to the lies and reestablished the alliance, many would think he was stupid for being tricked so easily. zhuge jin said sun quan knew nothing about lu meng's actions and did not grant permission for them. however, sun quan did know so there's one huge lie right there. then he says the ones who killed guan yu are dead so there should be no reason to fight wu. but that was not the case as neither sun quan nor lu xun, who were involved in the whole scheme, were dead. so there's another lie.