What I'm saying is that Guo Jia's advice was based on PROBABILITY
Tonto_Simfish wrote:That is true. But I'm also talking about weighting the probability with the impact factor of a probability (as in, the the potential impact of a probability). There could be a chance of success of 80%, but if the chance of failure was 20% and carried the potential for total disaster, then it may not be a decision worth embarking upon (when there are other less risky moves).
Of course, if we look at history - we see that history is written by the victors. Then the bold will be seen as the successful (even though that sort of boldness will not always lead to success - it just happens to be more prevalent in historical records).
I think the world's most biggest battles won was on low "probability", such as the Battle of Normandy, Battle of Gettysburg, they took huge chances there, and succeeded. Great Commanders such as Alexander and his bravery charge against the Persian army is another example.
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