On the crest of victory Liu Biao does what?

[Shi Tong]

Sit's back?

I was thinking about Liu Biao and I cant sqare the young one with the older one.

Liu Biao was one of the 8 talents and was Captain of the Centre of the Northern Army, overall supervisor of the 5 colonels who commanded the 5 regiments of the Northern Army in the Capital. Liu Biao’s territory extended to several thousands of li and he had an army of some 100,000 troops, including some cavalry.

Even though he did have mixed sucess up to a certain point, he seemed quite sucessful- afterall, an army of 100,000 is quite something, and he was in a great province, the key to the whole 3k conflict.

Why on earth was he so useless when it came to deciding on what to do about Cao Cao and Yuan Shao? and I quote from Liu Biao's SGZ bio on kongming.net:

If you, General, wish to accomplish great things, this is the right time to do so with Yuan Shao and Cao Cao weakened considerably from their conflicts. If not, you can choose the more virtuous and capable one out of the two rivals and swear your allegiance to him. With 100,000 troops under your control, how can you, General, just sit back and watch the outcome of the conflict without doing anything? Furthermore, since you are not prepared to aid the virtuous when he is weak, and neither are you prepared to keep your promise, it is likely that sometime later, either Yuan Shao or Cao Cao would vent their frustrations and hatred on you.

Liu Biao is so indecisive and sends a spy to gather information on Cao and Yuan- ironically he's already allied to Yuan Shao, but cant make up his mind to help him, he then distrusts his spy (then why send one in the first place), who tells him to ally with Cao.

What I dont get is- how can a general of such significance, who takes over other places and gains a massive army be so decisively beaten by hesitation? He didn't hesitate to attack Zhang Xian and Zhang Yi, even beating them and taking Chang Sha with it's huge army, so why hesitate over who to support, or he could have even taken a third route and weaken them both, but basically did nothing!

What do you all think?

[Six_and_Up]

One theory i've heard is that Liu Biao was happy with just Jingzhou province, which is why he never considered making a serious move on Cao Cao or Yuan Shao and why he tended to take military action to quash rebellions in and near Jingzhou for good.

[Shi Tong]

Surely, someone with that kind of talent and power couldn't have been seriously thinking he could sit in Jing and wait?

I can see where you're coming from, but I dont know why he did what he did. I mean- that time was a time for action and inaction lead to the downfall of his province and kinda ruined the whole country!

In terms of peace he could have sided with Cao and beaten Yuan with him- then it would have meant that Jing would have remained Cao's and been much more stable when he was lining up an attack at Chibi- this may have meant a better base for Cao and possible sucess against Wu.

If he'd got involved in helping Yuan Shao he could have maybe stopped Cao's army and Wu would have had the opportunity to gain a foothold in Shu.

If he'd given lip service to them both and set up some traps or tried to figure out a way of weakening both of his enemies, then he might have had the chance to stop them entering Jing with large hosts (which is what Cao Cao did).

As I said, I dont know how someone who had such a large army and such control over the area let it all go without a fight!

[Sima Hui]

It's easy to think that Liu Biao was a lazy guy who had no ambition, but I see it a different way.

Perhaps Liu Biao simply expected another warlord to take control of the land and restore the Han. If that occurred, he could submit to this new authority and be seen as a hero for not rebelling and trying to take the land for himself. He would have very little to lose in this approach. On the other hand, if he set out to conquer the land, and was defeated, then he could lose everything, his land, his status, even his life. Liu Biao perhaps was more inclined to lie low until a definite victor emerged in the power struggle and then submit to him.

[Starscream]

I thought this indecision was explained in an earlier line in Liu Biao's SGZ bio?

The emperor was situated in Xu Du (with Cao Cao of course) and Liu Biao wanted to pay the customary tribute. However, he was allied with Yuan Shao already. Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were not friendly.

If Liu Biao went ahead with his tribute, he would legitimize the presence of Cao Cao in the imperial court, since Cao Cao was somewhat like the protector of the emperor. This would upset his ally Yuan Shao. On the other hand, if he did not pay his tribute, it would seem as if Liu Biao was a rebel of some sort.

Perhaps there were other reasons too but I'm too lazy to search now.

[Shi Tong]

EDIT: Just found out that there's another Starscream post, so I'll reply to you too!

Sima Hui:

Do you think then, that Liu Biao, if he'd have lived for that long, would have given his land to Cao Cao with the thought in mind that he was the "victor" who would "restore the Han".

Do you think Cao Cao intended to restore the Han?

Maybe Liu Biao didn't concider that Cao Cao and Yuan Shao were out for themselves, and thought that they were just bikering over prime ministership.

Hmm, that's a good point Sima Hui!

Starscream:

I kind of agree with you that I think that Liu Biao would have been aware of Cao Cao's intentions and position. He had agreed to help Yuan Shao, but only his word, and he seemed to not worry about actually aiding anyone.

Why didn't he help Yuan Shao then? I mean- Cao Cao was powerful, but Yuan Shao was at the time as well- he also had the aid of Liu Bei. Maybe Cao Cao would have concidered Liu Biao a rebel, but surely if Liu Biao knew Liu Bei he would know that the Liu family had been given titles from the emperor (like imperial uncle), and may have got from Liu Bei, or from just observing the situation, that Cao Cao was a traitor and he needed crushing.

Dunno.. both good points though!

[Starscream]

It all boils down to political status I think. Yuan Shao was indeed powerful but he was only a warlord. Cao Cao was quite powerful too, but he had the emperor and he was the prime minister of Han. To anyone who attempted to attack the capital (or even Cao Cao's army), Cao Cao could swiftly brand the person as traitor to the imperial court without much of a fuss. Only Liu Bei could somewhat stand up against Cao Cao's legitimacy because he was distantly related to the throne, but Liu Bei had none of the 3 warlords' power back then. Thus, Liu Biao, a warlord without any linkage to the line of royalty, was just another Yuan Shao. It was not an easy decision for him to decide between Yuan Shao (a political ally), and Cao Cao (a potential ally / threat).

[Sun Gongli]

Liu Biao had a lot to lose. In the beginning days of conflict between Yuan Shao and Cao Cao, Sun Ce had defeated Huang Zu at Shaxian in a rather decisive battle and seized part of Jiangxia. Then, after Sun Ce's death, Sun Quan was a nominal ally of Cao Cao. If Liu Biao tried to strike at Cao, that would be the perfect excuse and perfect opportunity for whichever Sun was in power to invade and crush him.

Not to mention that Liu Zhang was a threat as well: the two had never gotten along, and constant skirmishes along the Jing-Yi border reinforced that. Liu Zhang was also, in theory at least, an ally of Cao Cao, so Liu Biao would not only be invoking Cao Cao's wrath by opposing him, but also finding himself surrounded by enemies.

By doing nothing, Liu Biao could concentrate on his own affairs internally and externally try to protect himself from his enemies.

[FuguNabe]

Simple... look at the position of Jing province then consider these

- The Sun reigning down South still looking on opportunity to pounce on Liu Biao and his territory.

- Cao Cao has emperor and is a minister of Han hence in a position to label others rebel in the name of the sun of heaven. Liu Biao probably is smart enough to see much disadavantage of that.

- I'm sure Liu Biao knows himself Yuan Shao's characteristic depite Shao's sphere of influence up north. Liu Biao himself is apparently not a stupid man and has probably had a good bit of dealing with Shao to know what he's like and capability. Perhap he foresaw Yuan Shao losing to Cao Cao. Afterall Yuan Shao couldn't even hold the alliance againt Dong Zhuo together with his grand and official ways of going about things and hesitation.

I would assume just putting these three external factors together it's hard for him to aid Yuan Shao in anyway. I'm sure there's also internal factors involve. Perhaps regards to his heir to his position was an internal problem. Who knows!?...

[Six_and_Up]

Maybe Liu Biao thought that the situation between Cao Cao and Yuan Shao would turn out into an all-out war for supremacy? Consider at the time only two dynasties had actually conquered China properly and maybe he was considering that they would revert to a warring states type scenario with 5-6 states where Jingzhou would be a major power.

We know that Liu Biao was really reluctant to move his troops out of Jingzhou. No one really knows why although its probably either he was content with having Jingzhou or was really hesitant because of the multiple threats to the region.

Or maybe we're just missing the fact that Liu Biao was just plain incompetent and indecisive, ZGL and Lu Su both foresaw he really would not last long in the period. He may of had booksmarts, but as we all know, that does not automatically mean his good at management and leadership.