Wu's biggest mistake

[Dong Zhou]

Out of curiosity, what's the consensus here?

Don't think there is one. Some pick Jing because they believe it destroyed the allied momentum and others pick the heir dispute.

[Striga]

Yet amazingly, executing Guan Yu and Ping is the top of the list. If we could change our votes, I wonder what it would look like.

I think the heir issue destroyed Wu, mostly because the competent ones were all killed off by Quan.

[Dong Zhou]

I do wonder how many of the Guan executed option is more a "invading Jing in the first place" vote. Or whether opinions have changed with time

[Striga]

If they had taken Jing from Cao Cao in the first place, they wouldn't have to take it from Liu Bei later on.

[Zhao Yun '87]

I never said killing Guan Yu was a bad idea.

And I never said you did.

Personally, I believe the heir issue is the biggest mistake, I just don't agree with people saying executing Guan Yu was not a mistake.

I believe you're saying that had history gone the other way, the execution of Guan Yu would have been seen as Sun Quan's fatal blunder. But what if Wu was ready for Shu's counterattack? (I'm sure they were). If China antagonizes Russia and incites them to invade but can predict how and where the Russians would come at them, then it would certainly be an "alright move". And what was Yiling? Seemed to me like Wu had Liu Bei all figured out, and successfully used their territory against him.

First rule of military operations, nothing ever goes as planned. Even assuming that they could do all that and it actually panned out by some miracle it would only be worthwhile if they could then politically grab everything they wanted. Wu had what they wanted, Jing. They had nothing to gain politically from the execution, only stuff to lose. As for the fighting in Wu I'm interested in hearing why you think they had Liu Bei all figured out. From my studies evidence seems to point to it going poorly and they were highly worried about the invasion. It was a blunder on Liu Bei's part, not planning on Wu's, that let them use their terrain to an advantage.

I'm especially amazed due to the members of this site. The distaste for Guan Yu and the general thought that he was not very good makes you wonder why people here think it was a good idea to have him executed. If he's as lousy and as much a liability as what I seem to see a lot on this forum, wouldn't it be better to let him continue to be used? He was very trusted, etc. so he'd be in high command again.

[Dong Zhou]

While a hostage might be useful, that might go down very badly with the wider world. People can understanding executing, that sort of thing happens, but holding a warrior hostage would be an unusual thing and rulers don't like the bad PR. Letting him go may also do damage to Wu's image, seen as an appeasement of Shu or a sign of weakness.

Just a thought on the costs thing: I would have thought the taxes, population and so on gained from the 60 or so years Wu controlled it outweighed the costs of the two camapigns required to take then hold it. Throw in the prestige, putting Shu back in it's place, doesn't seem too heavy in that respect.

[TooMuchBaijiu]

First rule of military operations, nothing ever goes as planned.

Calculated risk. If you plan out a sure-fire victory, you're more likely to make it happen. No promises, of course, but there are no sure things.

As for the fighting in Wu I'm interested in hearing why you think they had Liu Bei all figured out. From my studies evidence seems to point to it going poorly and they were highly worried about the invasion. It was a blunder on Liu Bei's part, not planning on Wu's, that let them use their terrain to an advantage.

And what material provided you with that conclusion? From what I've read, Wu did at first underestimate Shu's force, but after some initial defeats Sun Quan appointed Lu Xun to run the show, who realized that Shu had Wu's number on mountainous terrain but less so on more even ground. He withdrew, and in doing so greatly strained Liu Bei's supply lines, lowering their morale. You know what happens next. So perhaps I should say Lu Xun had Liu Bei all figured out, and Sun Quan only thought he did. Either way, the outcome was the same, and I don't doubt Sun Quan gave himself credit for the victory.

I'm especially amazed due to the members of this site. The distaste for Guan Yu and the general thought that he was not very good makes you wonder why people here think it was a good idea to have him executed. If he's as lousy and as much a liability as what I seem to see a lot on this forum, wouldn't it be better to let him continue to be used? He was very trusted, etc. so he'd be in high command again.

He wasn't absolutely terrible. And I doubt even Liu Bei would put him back in charge after a defeat. He'd probably lead the counterattack himself in any case.

[Striga]

I think Guan Yu would have been reappointed, and he would have spurred Liu Bei even further to let him recapture Jingzhou, utterly annihilating Shu against Wu's defences.

Letting him go would have just strained relations and made Wu seem a bit complacent.

[Zhao Yun '87]

Just a thought on the costs thing: I would have thought the taxes, population and so on gained from the 60 or so years Wu controlled it outweighed the costs of the two camapigns required to take then hold it. Throw in the prestige, putting Shu back in it's place, doesn't seem too heavy in that respect.

Again, I never said taking Jing was a bad idea, just executing Guan Yu/Ping. Please read my posts more carefully. I don't want to be rude, it just seems the past 3 or so responses you've had have been against statements I never made.

Keeping Guan Yu as a hostage would be odd, releasing him would not. It could help to take away any reason Shu could claim to attempt to retake Jing. Letting them go would allow them to continue the claim they'd been using for years that Jing was theirs and they were just taking it back since Liu Bei wouldn't give it back.

And what material provided you with that conclusion? From what I've read, Wu did at first underestimate Shu's force, but after some initial defeats Sun Quan appointed Lu Xun to run the show, who realized that Shu had Wu's number on mountainous terrain but less so on more even ground. He withdrew, and in doing so greatly strained Liu Bei's supply lines, lowering their morale. You know what happens next. So perhaps I should say Lu Xun had Liu Bei all figured out, and Sun Quan only thought he did. Either way, the outcome was the same, and I don't doubt Sun Quan gave himself credit for the victory.

He wasn't absolutely terrible. And I doubt even Liu Bei would put him back in charge after a defeat. He'd probably lead the counterattack himself in any case.

I'll have to reread about Lu Xun's involvement in that campaign. I didn't know or had forgotten that he intentionally drew back his forces to draw Shu's forces into level ground.

I think Liu would definately have given Guan a command after that. Other captured and released officers would receive commands again and while their failures may be lesser they were also less trusted by their lords. Liu Bei trusted in Guan too much to shelf him. Of course when we get to this point it's just speculation so neither of us can be correct.

[Mestre Will]

Let Sun ce go hunt alone.

That is pretty much the biggest mistake ever made by them.