In the below you will find a complete account of Jimayo's theory of the Battle of Chibi. Detailing both the controversial accounts from the SGZ and my theory to reconcile the controversy.
As well you will find a theory on what I believe actually happened in the Zhou Yu-Cao Cao naval battle.
The theory first posited here:
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=543&start=50At this point I would like to thank Chris(known as Great Deer/Battleroyale/Zhang Ren) for his contribution. Chris was the first to ask is it possible that there is no disagreement and all the accounts are accurate in some fashion. Without that, this theory would never have come to be.
Firstly, I will provide all the relevant SGZ passages detailing the seemingly disparate accounts of the Battle of Chibi.
Liu Bei's bio
Lord Cao realised that Jiangling was an important military centre and feared if the First Sovereign took it. Throwing away heavy armour, he chased him on light cavalry. They travelled three hundred li (miles) per day. When they reached Changban, Dangyang, the First Sovereign along with Zhuge Liang, Zhang Fei, and Zhao Yun [were defeated and] escaped without his wives. Lord Cao took their supplies and equipment. At Hanjin, the First Sovereign met with Guan Yu along with the Governor of Jiangxia, Liu Qi with ten thousand troops. They went to Xiakou. Liu Bei sent Zhuge Liang to discuss alliance with Sun Quan. (22) Sun Quan asked Zhou Yu and Cheng Pu to co-operate with the First Sovereign. (23) [They] defeated Lord Cao and burnt his ships at Chibi. The First Sovereign and the Wu troops pursued Lord Cao along land and water. (XXVIII) They chased Lord Cao to Nanjun. Lots of disease spread in Lord Cao’s camp, hence he retreated. (24)
http://kongming.net/novel/sgz/liubei.phpCao Cao's bio
In the seventh month—autumn—the Duke campaigned south against Liu Biao. In the eighth month, Liu Biao died and his son Liu Zong succeeded, garrisoning Xiangyang. Liu Biao garrisoned Fan. In the ninth month, the Duke reached Xinye and Liu Zong subsequently surrendered; Liu Bei fled to Xiakou. The Duke advanced his army to Jiangling and decreed that the officials and commoners of Jingzhou should be allowed to start anew. Then rewards were distributed to the surrendered officials of Jingzhou, there were fifteen who were enfeoffed as Full Marquises. Liu Biao’s great general Wen Pin was made Grand Administrator of Jiangxia and he was allowed to continue leading his own troops. Han Gao and Deng Yi, the famed statesmen of Jingzhou, were promoted. Liu Zhang, Governor of Yizhou, received the Imperial Court’s order of conscription and sent troops to the Duke’s army. In the twelfth month, Sun Quan aided Liu Bei in besieging Hefei. The Duke campaigned against Liu Bei himself at Jiangling, reached Baqiu and sent Zhang Xi to reinforce Hefei. Sun Quan heard that Zhang Xi had arrived and subsequently retreated. The Duke reached Red Cliffs, battled Liu Bei and was defeated. Then there was great plague, many of the officials and officers died, and the army was forced to withdraw. Liu Bei subsequently acquired the various commanderies of Jingzhou and Jiangnan.
http://kongming.net/novel/sgz/caocao.phpGuo Jia's bio
Later, when Taizu (i.e. Cao Cao) was returning from his campaign in Jingzhou, his army met with an epidemic at Baqiu and he burned his ships, lamenting, 'If Guo Fengxiao were still here, I would not have come to such a state.'
No link. The only remaining SGZ biography online for Guo Jia does not share that translation of this line.
Zhou Yu's bio
At that moment, Liu Bei was defeated by Cao Cao and he met Lu Su at Dang Yang. In the meeting, both devised plans for alliance against Cao Cao. Subsequently, Liu Bei stationed himself at Xia Kou. In addition, Liu Bei sent Zhuge Liang as an envoy to Sun Quan. Following that, Sun Quan dispatched Zhou Yu, Cheng Pu and other Wu generals to meet Liu Bei in order to consolidate their forces against Cao Cao’s army. The army of the Sun-Liu alliance engaged Cao Cao’s army at Chi Bi. During then, Cao Cao’s army was already having problems with many soldiers falling sick. As such, during the initial engagement, Cao Cao’s army was promptly defeated and retreated back to the northern shore of the river Yang Tze.
Seeing that Cao Cao’s army was numerous, Huang Gai felt that it would be difficult to resist them for long. However, he observed that Cao Cao’s ships were linked together and he suggested to Zhou Yu that it was actually possible to repel the enemies if they launched a fire attack at them. The suggestion was accepted and preparations were made for the fireboats (boats stuffed with inflammable materials). Subsequently, a letter was sent to Cao Cao falsely claiming that Huang Gai intended to surrender. The ruse was successful and the soldiers of Wei were anticipating the arrival of Huang Gai. At that moment, Huang Gai arrived and set his fireboats on fire. Aided by the strong winds and the fact that Cao Cao’s ships were chained together, the fire quickly spread throughout Cao Cao’s navy and even to the naval camps on the shore. Within moments, the raging inferno resulted in heavy casualties in Cao Cao’s army. Cao Cao was forced to retreat and defend Nan prefecture against the victorious allied armies. Meanwhile, Liu Bei and Zhou Yu led their troops in pursuit. Nevertheless, Cao Cao himself had returned to the north after leaving Cao Ren to guard the city of Jiang Ling.
http://kongming.net/novel/sgz/zhouyu.phpAs you can see, these accounts do not seem to agree on the events of Chibi.
I have posited that this is due to the nature of chinese history. That it is written in biography rather than chronological form, can lead to seeming conflicts where in truth none exist. Particularly true of the SGZ because Chen Shou did not put events in multiple bios. For ex. Guan Yu's defeat in Jiang Xia by Wen Pin is recorded in Wen Pin's bio, but not Guan Yu's. If the events described in the above bio's were instead a sequence that followed each other, there would be no way to know.
So the first event in my theory is the naval battle in which Huang Gai feigned defection and brought fire ships to burn out Cao Cao's fleet. You will find it differs a little from Zhou Yu's account. My theory is that Wu tried to up play their grand strategy(burning out Cao Cao's fleet) and so made it a far more grandiose event than it was. I find it hard to credit that a brilliant commander like Cao Cao could make such an asinine mistake as chaining his ships together. Nor do I credit that he was unaware of the coming change of wind direction thereby discounting the threat of a fire attack on his chained together fleet. Cao Cao made a career out of knowing the conditions under which he would battle and minimizing his own risk. That he would be unaware of the wind change and chain his ships together is hardly credible.
As mentioned in Zhou Yu's bio, in the initial engagement the superior Wu navy(bolstered by Liu Qi's naval forces from Jiang Xia) were able to defeat Cao Cao's half trained and incredibly sick fleet. After which Huang Gai suggested his feigned defection and fire attack ruse which was accepted by Zhou Yu. At this point, I suspect Cao Cao did not have his ships chained together but, none the less, the fire attack would still be a massive success given Cao Cao's inexperienced fleet and sick soldiers, sending what remained into confusion and disorder and allowing the superior naval forces of Wu(and Liu Qi) to lay waste to what remained.
At which point Cao Cao was forced to retreat. Where, as per his and Liu Bei's bio, he was then attacked by Liu Bei's ground forces from Xiakou and his defeated, demoralised, sick and disordered troops suffered a second massive defeat and he was forced to retreat to his secondary camp at Baqiu.
Here, as per Guo Jia's bio, he burned the remainder of his fleet, ordered certain generals to hold the strategic points in Jingzhou and took the main force back to the capital.
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